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Il nuovo giudizio di S&P sul Banco Popolare:
Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa Downgraded To 'BB-'; 'B' Short-Term Rating Affirmed; Outlook Negative
Publication date: 19-Feb-2014 21:38:57 GMT
View Analyst Contact Information
Following the announcement that Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa SCRL
expects to report a loss of €600 million in financial year 2013 and that
it has launched a fully underwritten €1.5 billion capital increase, we
have reviewed the bank's recent business and financial performance.
Banco Popolare's weaker financial profile than that of many of its peers
makes it unlikely, in our view, that its business position will
strengthen in line with our previous expectations.
As a result, we are lowering our long-term ratings on Banco Popolare and
its core subsidiaries, Credito Bergamasco and Banca Aletti, to 'BB-' from
'BB' and affirming our 'B' short-term ratings.
Our rating actions reflect our view that, despite the capital increase,
Banco Popolare's capital position remains exposed to potential risks
related to further credit losses associated with its high, and growing,
stock of nonperforming assets.
The negative outlook indicates that we could lower the ratings on Banco
Popolare if we lower the sovereign credit rating on Italy, and we no
longer believe the bank can improve its funding and liquidity profile by
the time the European Central Bank's long-term refinancing operations
expire.
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 19, 2014--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today lowered to 'BB-' from 'BB' its long-term counterparty credit ratings on
Banco Popolare Società Cooperativa SCRL (Banco Popolare) and its core
subsidiaries Credito Bergamasco and Banca Aletti & C. SpA and removed them
from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Feb. 3,
2014. The outlook is negative.
At the same time, we affirmed our 'B' short-term counterparty credit ratings
on Banco Popolare and its subsidiaries.
The lowering of the long-term ratings on Banco Popolare reflects our view that
its weaker financial profile than that of many of its peers--due mainly to the
ongoing deterioration of the credit quality of its assets--makes it unlikely
that Banco Popolare's business position will strengthen in line with our
previous expectations.
Banco Popolare's asset quality--which is already weaker than the Italian
system average--deteriorated further in the fourth quarter of 2013. In our
view, this deterioration is likely to continue and asset quality will likely
remain weaker than we had previously expected. In particular, we anticipate
that Banco Popolare's ratio of nonperforming assets (NPA) to gross loans,
which was an already-high 20.1% as of September 2013, will likely increase
further over the next two years, to a very high level both in absolute terms
and relative to peers. Therefore, the likelihood of a smooth workout of Banco
Popolare's sizable stock of NPAs is, in our opinion, lower than we had
previously expected. We also view the continuing deterioration of Banco
Popolare's asset quality as a factor that could negatively affect its capacity
to consolidate its franchise, and that could ultimately constrain the bank's
business and financial profile to a greater extent than for those banks whose
business position we assess as "strong." For these reasons, we now consider a
strengthening of Banco Popolare's business position as less likely than we had
previously expected, and have therefore removed the one-notch uplift we had
previously incorporated into our long-term rating on Banco Popolare.
Our rating action also incorporates our view that, despite the announced €1.5
billion capital increase, Banco Popolare's capital position remains exposed to
potential risks related primarily to further credit losses. We anticipate that
Banco Popolare's high, and growing, stock of NPAs combined with what we view
as a low loan-loss coverage are likely to lead to further sizable provisions
during the next two years. Banco Popolare's coverage of NPAs through
provisions of 27% as of September 2013 was low, in our view, particularly by
international standards. We also expect Banco Popolare's stock of net NPAs
(after deducting loan-loss reserves) to remain well in excess of our measure
of total adjusted capital, even after the capital increase. Net NPAs
represented a high 180% of our measure of Banco Popolare's total adjusted
capital at June 2013. We anticipate that our risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio
for Banco Popolare is unlikely to remain sustainably above 5.0% for the next
two years. Our assessment of Banco Popolare's capital and earnings therefore
remains "weak" as defined in our criteria.
We have maintained our assessment of Banco Popolare's "adequate" business
position, "weak" risk position, "average" funding, and "moderate" liquidity.
These factors lead us to assess Banco Popolare's stand-alone credit profile
(SACP) at 'b'.
Our ratings on Banco Popolare continue to incorporate a one-notch uplift for
short-term support to reflect our belief that the ECB's long-term refinancing
operations (LTRO) should give Banco Popolare time to address its liquidity
imbalances and achieve what we view as adequate funding and liquidity. We also
maintain a one-notch uplift over the SACP for potential extraordinary
government support, based on our view of Banco Popolare's high systemic
importance and Italy's supportive stance toward its banking system.
The negative outlook mainly reflects the possibility that we could lower our
ratings on Banco Popolare if we believe that it is no longer able to improve
its funding profile and liquidity position by the time the European Central
Bank's LTRO expires in January 2015, and this were to coincide with a lowering
of the sovereign credit rating on Italy, thus limiting the uplift for
potential extraordinary government support in our ratings. We may come to
consider that Banco Popolare is unlikely to improve its funding and liquidity
position if there is no meaningful improvement in funding and liquidity
indicators, or if these indicators worsen.
Although we think it is unlikely at present, in the event that Banco
Popolare's asset quality should deteriorate more than we currently expect over
the next two years, we would also evaluate the effect of associated credit
losses on the bank's capital position.
We could revise the outlook to stable if we were to also revise the outlook on
the long-term sovereign rating on Italy to stable, and if we were to
anticipate that the downside risks to the economic and operating environment
in Italy, and to our assessment of Banco Popolare's liquidity profile, have
abated.
Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa Downgraded To 'BB-'; 'B' Short-Term Rating Affirmed; Outlook Negative
Publication date: 19-Feb-2014 21:38:57 GMT
View Analyst Contact Information
Following the announcement that Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa SCRL
expects to report a loss of €600 million in financial year 2013 and that
it has launched a fully underwritten €1.5 billion capital increase, we
have reviewed the bank's recent business and financial performance.
Banco Popolare's weaker financial profile than that of many of its peers
makes it unlikely, in our view, that its business position will
strengthen in line with our previous expectations.
As a result, we are lowering our long-term ratings on Banco Popolare and
its core subsidiaries, Credito Bergamasco and Banca Aletti, to 'BB-' from
'BB' and affirming our 'B' short-term ratings.
Our rating actions reflect our view that, despite the capital increase,
Banco Popolare's capital position remains exposed to potential risks
related to further credit losses associated with its high, and growing,
stock of nonperforming assets.
The negative outlook indicates that we could lower the ratings on Banco
Popolare if we lower the sovereign credit rating on Italy, and we no
longer believe the bank can improve its funding and liquidity profile by
the time the European Central Bank's long-term refinancing operations
expire.
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 19, 2014--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today lowered to 'BB-' from 'BB' its long-term counterparty credit ratings on
Banco Popolare Società Cooperativa SCRL (Banco Popolare) and its core
subsidiaries Credito Bergamasco and Banca Aletti & C. SpA and removed them
from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Feb. 3,
2014. The outlook is negative.
At the same time, we affirmed our 'B' short-term counterparty credit ratings
on Banco Popolare and its subsidiaries.
The lowering of the long-term ratings on Banco Popolare reflects our view that
its weaker financial profile than that of many of its peers--due mainly to the
ongoing deterioration of the credit quality of its assets--makes it unlikely
that Banco Popolare's business position will strengthen in line with our
previous expectations.
Banco Popolare's asset quality--which is already weaker than the Italian
system average--deteriorated further in the fourth quarter of 2013. In our
view, this deterioration is likely to continue and asset quality will likely
remain weaker than we had previously expected. In particular, we anticipate
that Banco Popolare's ratio of nonperforming assets (NPA) to gross loans,
which was an already-high 20.1% as of September 2013, will likely increase
further over the next two years, to a very high level both in absolute terms
and relative to peers. Therefore, the likelihood of a smooth workout of Banco
Popolare's sizable stock of NPAs is, in our opinion, lower than we had
previously expected. We also view the continuing deterioration of Banco
Popolare's asset quality as a factor that could negatively affect its capacity
to consolidate its franchise, and that could ultimately constrain the bank's
business and financial profile to a greater extent than for those banks whose
business position we assess as "strong." For these reasons, we now consider a
strengthening of Banco Popolare's business position as less likely than we had
previously expected, and have therefore removed the one-notch uplift we had
previously incorporated into our long-term rating on Banco Popolare.
Our rating action also incorporates our view that, despite the announced €1.5
billion capital increase, Banco Popolare's capital position remains exposed to
potential risks related primarily to further credit losses. We anticipate that
Banco Popolare's high, and growing, stock of NPAs combined with what we view
as a low loan-loss coverage are likely to lead to further sizable provisions
during the next two years. Banco Popolare's coverage of NPAs through
provisions of 27% as of September 2013 was low, in our view, particularly by
international standards. We also expect Banco Popolare's stock of net NPAs
(after deducting loan-loss reserves) to remain well in excess of our measure
of total adjusted capital, even after the capital increase. Net NPAs
represented a high 180% of our measure of Banco Popolare's total adjusted
capital at June 2013. We anticipate that our risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio
for Banco Popolare is unlikely to remain sustainably above 5.0% for the next
two years. Our assessment of Banco Popolare's capital and earnings therefore
remains "weak" as defined in our criteria.
We have maintained our assessment of Banco Popolare's "adequate" business
position, "weak" risk position, "average" funding, and "moderate" liquidity.
These factors lead us to assess Banco Popolare's stand-alone credit profile
(SACP) at 'b'.
Our ratings on Banco Popolare continue to incorporate a one-notch uplift for
short-term support to reflect our belief that the ECB's long-term refinancing
operations (LTRO) should give Banco Popolare time to address its liquidity
imbalances and achieve what we view as adequate funding and liquidity. We also
maintain a one-notch uplift over the SACP for potential extraordinary
government support, based on our view of Banco Popolare's high systemic
importance and Italy's supportive stance toward its banking system.
The negative outlook mainly reflects the possibility that we could lower our
ratings on Banco Popolare if we believe that it is no longer able to improve
its funding profile and liquidity position by the time the European Central
Bank's LTRO expires in January 2015, and this were to coincide with a lowering
of the sovereign credit rating on Italy, thus limiting the uplift for
potential extraordinary government support in our ratings. We may come to
consider that Banco Popolare is unlikely to improve its funding and liquidity
position if there is no meaningful improvement in funding and liquidity
indicators, or if these indicators worsen.
Although we think it is unlikely at present, in the event that Banco
Popolare's asset quality should deteriorate more than we currently expect over
the next two years, we would also evaluate the effect of associated credit
losses on the bank's capital position.
We could revise the outlook to stable if we were to also revise the outlook on
the long-term sovereign rating on Italy to stable, and if we were to
anticipate that the downside risks to the economic and operating environment
in Italy, and to our assessment of Banco Popolare's liquidity profile, have
abated.
