Joe Silver
Forumer storico
Groupama : Exchange offer for a 6% 2027 Tier 2 which looks attractive for the 6.298% Tier 1 and "fair" for the 2039/19 notes
Friday 13 January 2017 - - - / - Full-year earnings in mid-March 2017 - - - - Groupama is offering to swap all its 6.298%Tier 1 notes and some of its 2039/2019 notes for a new 2027 Tier 2 paper offering a yield of no less than 6%. - The minimum yield of the new 2027 bond was announced on 11 January, at 6% which, in our view, is generous and should therefore help hold up the price after the transaction. The yield stands at the upper end of our expectations. - We advise holders of the 6.298% Tier 1 notes to tender their bonds so as not to be stuck with illiquid paper. - - > - The decision is less clear for the 2039/2019 notes which still offer an attractive yield of around 4.46% at the 2019 call. - If the aggregate tenders are not sufficient to create a benchmark, new money will be proposed. With a yield of 6% on a 2027 maturity, and in view of comparable bond issues, we believe the offer is attractive. - - The principal clause on the new Tier 2 2027 debt is based on coupon payments. The trigger is linked to the solvency ratios of Groupama (combined) and Groupama SA (Solo), including transitional measures. The ratios attained at the end of June (239% and 290% respectively) are comfortable for a bond investor. - - - A margin of 113% before transitional measures obliges Groupama to make a continued effort to shore up its capital between now and 2032. Retained earnings and the issuance of mutual certificates are one solution. Others will have to be found.
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