Le prime avvisaglie delle mosse politiche in Germania sul destino dei bond subordinati.
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Hybrid bonds
Investor interest in the hands of policy
Buyers of hybrid bonds in fear of their interest
10. February 2009 Not only the shareholders of the German banks must be in a financial crisis bleed. Even creditors that are due to higher interest on subordinated claims have appeared, see how their assets dwindle. Some subordinated bonds are still only at less than 20 cents per euro par value traded,
because the once hoped for early repayment almost impossible and now the interest is in danger.
To their equity returns in the amount of driving, the European banks in recent years in great style subordinated bonds issued by regulators and rating agencies as a substitute for equity capital to be. Buyers were mostly institutional investors. Few private investors have direct access, millions of savers
but they are indirectly affected because their life insurers hold subordinated bank bonds.
Initially, no money for subordinated creditors
Alone in the European Itraxx index for subordinated bonds, the core capital as a bank, are entitled to the value of almost 60 billion euros represented. The total market is estimated at more than 200 billion euros. Given the numerous situations of banks,
the regulators insist that the subordinated creditors initially receive no money. And so, the rating agency Standard & Poor's already well-known titles banks to a very weak level downgraded. Subordinated bonds issued by Commerzbank, Fortis, Citigroup, Royal Bank of Scotland are now as a risk securities ( "non-investment grade) status. "There is a great incentive to the subordinated debt to use, but we recognize the growing risk of failure rate," says S & P credit analyst Bernd Ackermann. This applies particularly to banks, which already receive from the state capital and whose earnings prospects are weak.
Entitled to interest subordinated creditors have almost always, if for a fiscal year a dividend to shareholders will be. Most ranges also an annual profit from. If the bank made a net loss, it can be on the dissolution of reserves still show a balance sheet profit. Again, this leads to the most subordinated bonds is that you must pay. In some constructions, the bond bank even then the option to pay interest if they have a record loss. But then the regulators should be particularly critical in judging.
Market could be disrupted for years
From the perspective of supervisors required for interest waiver, however, strong political interests, banking experts suspect.
The German government has sole responsibility for Commerzbank silent deposits some 16 billion euros. If the banks on a large scale and sustained its subordinated creditors leave empty-handed, the government would also not return on its deposits. More seriously still, the prospect that then for years the market for new subordinated bonds would be disrupted. The silent participation in the bank, Commerzbank would be the end for a long time unmerchantable.
Another concern could be political pressure to increase payments to the subordinated creditors accept.
The bonds are an essential part of insurers hold. Their association has already sounded the alarm. The blocking of distributions should be limited to dividends, the total calls to the German Insurance Association (GDV). Subordinated financing should nevertheless be operated. "Such restrictions would be the banks' refinancing opportunities, especially in the insurance, continue to restrict threatens the Federation and argues:"
Should insurance companies on a scheduled interest and principal payments of subordinated debts due to government intervention in banks refrain would also save on costs of policyholders, and accordingly reduce their pensions. "
The dividend policy of banks is so far different. Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, for example, has already announced, the subordinated claims to control (rescue banks could be too narrow). When Bayern LB has already interfered in Brussels. The state aid, the European Commission has approved, but a dividend writes ban.