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maxinblack

Forumer storico

Brutte notizie su Depfa specialmente sui subordinati dal forum di Bondboard, fonte sconosciuta, forse UBS?

Autor:
alois
Datum: 07.01.2009 18:06:16

UBS vom 6. Januar 2009:

We downgrade Depfa Bank from 'Low A' to 'Mid BBB' and keep it
on 'Watch-', reflecting the uncertainty about its future.
As a consequence, we also lower our rating for Irish covered bonds
of Depfa ACS Bank from 'AAA' to 'High AA'.
We think covered and senior bonds should be fully serviced, but
subordinated bonds are likely to incur losses.
Rating rationale
Following our downgrade of Depfa Bank in October 2008, we cut our
rating further to 'Mid BBB' and keep it on 'Watch -' for the following
reasons:
1) Depfa continues to be unable to access the debt market and is only
able to survive with German government support that is passed on to it
through its parent Hypo Real Estate (HRE).
2) The bank's business model is challenged by the financial crisis and
may not be viable in the longer-term.
3) HRE needs to downsize its business outside Germany substantially as
a condition for government support, which could lead to a closure or
run-down of Depfa Bank.
Depfa ACS (Irish covered bonds)
Depfa ACS Bank's covered bonds are backed by a large pool of globally
diversified public-sector assets. The pool's credit quality is high and
appears sufficient to cover the outstanding bonds of Depfa ACS.
However, due to the weak quality of the bank managing the cover
pool and its uncertain future, we view a rating cut to 'High AA' as
justified. Existing bond positions should be held, but no new positions
added.
Senior and Subordinated bonds
Although we view it as unlikely, we cannot exclude a default of Depfa
Bank if the financial crisis persists. Therefore, we think risk-sensitive
investors should not hold senior or subordinated bonds of Depfa Bank.
We do not expect a loss on senior debt at this stage, but we reiterate
our view that
subordinated bonds, especially perpetual bonds, are likely
to lose coupon and principal payments.


perpetual bonds, are likely
to lose coupon and principal payments.
 

maxinblack

Forumer storico
Le prime avvisaglie delle mosse politiche in Germania sul destino dei bond subordinati.
da FazNet http://www.faz.net/s/Rub09A305833E12405A808EF01024D15375/Doc~E36959803BCFC426BA48B4687727E7244~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html

Traduzione automatica ma si capisce bene, se volete vi faccio un sunto


Hybrid bonds

Investor interest in the hands of policy

Buyers of hybrid bonds in fear of their interest

10. February 2009 Not only the shareholders of the German banks must be in a financial crisis bleed. Even creditors that are due to higher interest on subordinated claims have appeared, see how their assets dwindle. Some subordinated bonds are still only at less than 20 cents per euro par value traded, because the once hoped for early repayment almost impossible and now the interest is in danger.

To their equity returns in the amount of driving, the European banks in recent years in great style subordinated bonds issued by regulators and rating agencies as a substitute for equity capital to be. Buyers were mostly institutional investors. Few private investors have direct access, millions of savers but they are indirectly affected because their life insurers hold subordinated bank bonds.

Initially, no money for subordinated creditors

Alone in the European Itraxx index for subordinated bonds, the core capital as a bank, are entitled to the value of almost 60 billion euros represented. The total market is estimated at more than 200 billion euros. Given the numerous situations of banks, the regulators insist that the subordinated creditors initially receive no money. And so, the rating agency Standard & Poor's already well-known titles banks to a very weak level downgraded. Subordinated bonds issued by Commerzbank, Fortis, Citigroup, Royal Bank of Scotland are now as a risk securities ( "non-investment grade) status. "There is a great incentive to the subordinated debt to use, but we recognize the growing risk of failure rate," says S & P credit analyst Bernd Ackermann. This applies particularly to banks, which already receive from the state capital and whose earnings prospects are weak.

Entitled to interest subordinated creditors have almost always, if for a fiscal year a dividend to shareholders will be. Most ranges also an annual profit from. If the bank made a net loss, it can be on the dissolution of reserves still show a balance sheet profit. Again, this leads to the most subordinated bonds is that you must pay. In some constructions, the bond bank even then the option to pay interest if they have a record loss. But then the regulators should be particularly critical in judging.
Market could be disrupted for years

From the perspective of supervisors required for interest waiver, however, strong political interests, banking experts suspect. The German government has sole responsibility for Commerzbank silent deposits some 16 billion euros. If the banks on a large scale and sustained its subordinated creditors leave empty-handed, the government would also not return on its deposits. More seriously still, the prospect that then for years the market for new subordinated bonds would be disrupted. The silent participation in the bank, Commerzbank would be the end for a long time unmerchantable.

Another concern could be political pressure to increase payments to the subordinated creditors accept. The bonds are an essential part of insurers hold. Their association has already sounded the alarm. The blocking of distributions should be limited to dividends, the total calls to the German Insurance Association (GDV). Subordinated financing should nevertheless be operated. "Such restrictions would be the banks' refinancing opportunities, especially in the insurance, continue to restrict threatens the Federation and argues:" Should insurance companies on a scheduled interest and principal payments of subordinated debts due to government intervention in banks refrain would also save on costs of policyholders, and accordingly reduce their pensions. "

The dividend policy of banks is so far different. Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, for example, has already announced, the subordinated claims to control (rescue banks could be too narrow). When Bayern LB has already interfered in Brussels. The state aid, the European Commission has approved, but a dividend writes ban.
 

DinoP

life is good
Ultima modifica:

negusneg

New Member
FRANCOFORTE (MF-DJ)--Il fondo tedesco a garanzia della stabilita' dei
mercati finanziari SoFFin ha reso noto di aver concesso a Hypo Real Estate
altre garanzie per 10 miliardi di euro.

Le garanzie complessive concesse alla societa' finanziaria tedesca
salgono cosi' a 52 miliardi di euro. Hypo Re ha poi precisato che le
trattative con SoFFin in merito ad altre misure non sono ancora state
completate.
liv
(fine)


MF-DJ NEWS
1112:09 feb 2009 12:09
 

negusneg

New Member
FRANCOFORTE (MF-DJ)--Si terra' domani un meeting tra Jc Flowers, il
Governo tedesco e il fondo SoFFin in merito ai piani di salvataggio per
Hypo Real Estate.

E' quanto riportato da alcune fonti, secondo cui domani le parti
valuteranno nuovi piani di aiuto per la societa' finanziaria tedesca. Jc
Flowers e' al momento il principale azionista di Hypo Re. Tra le ipotesi
allo studio ci sarebbe anche la possibile nazionalizzazione del gruppo.
liv
(fine)


MF-DJ NEWS
1114:21 feb 2009 14:21
 

negusneg

New Member
LONDRA (MF-DJ)--Dopo la bocciatura del piano di vendita degli asset di
Fortis da parte degli azionisti si fa incerto il futuro dei bond ibridi
della banca belga-olandese.

Mentre gli obbligazionisti senior dovrebbero essere protetti dalle
garanzie del Governo su questo tipo di strumenti finanziari, gli analisti
spiegano che i possessori di bond ibridi potrebbero restare allo scoperto.
Si tratta di obbligazioni emesse da Fortis Hybrid Financing, divisione
controllata direttamente da Fortis, riguardo le quali gli esperti si
dicono molto preoccupati. In particolare, Ing ha avvisato i propri clienti
che si tratta di strumenti estremamente a rischio, per i quali il sostegno
del Governo non e' garantito.
cs
(fine)




MF-DJ NEWS
12 feb 2009 15:34
 

solenoide

Forumer storico
In particolare, Ing ha avvisato i propri clienti
che si tratta di strumenti estremamente a rischio, per i quali il sostegno
del Governo non e' garantito.

Capzarola Negus...ING potrebbe inizare a spiegarci se i suoi ibridi sono garantiti invece di pensare a quelli di Fortis!!!:)

L'altro giorno ha parlato di Depfa ed Eurohypo sull'orlo del fallimento , Intendevi Hypo real estate? non che Eurohypo sia messa molto meglio, dipende totalmente da Commerzbank che a sua volta se la passa maluccio.

Ciao
 
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