Obbligazioni valute high yield TURCHIA bond in usd e lira turca (4 lettori)

pietro17elettra

Nonno pensionato
POLL-Turkey's inflation seen dropping to about 27% by end of 2022 17/01/2022 09:05 - RSF
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRCPIAP
inflation poll data
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRGDPAP
GDP poll data

ISTANBUL, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Already rampant inflation in Turkey will rise further in the coming months before declining to around 27% by the end of the year, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, as forecasts soared after a currency crisis in 2021 sent prices rocketing.

Turkey's inflation Turkish inflation soars to 36%, highest in Erdogan era
surged to 36% in December after a series of interest rate cuts by the central bank, long sought by President Tayyip Erdogan, prompted the lira to lose 44% of its value against the dollar last year.

The annual consumer price index (CPI) was seen standing at 40% by the end of the first quarter and 39% by mid-year, according to the median estimate in the Jan. 10-14 Reuters poll.

Inflation was seen declining to 26.8% by the end of 2022, and to 15.4% in 2023, in sharp contrast to government expectations UPDATE 1-Turkish lira firm as minister sees inflation peaking
that inflation would decline to single digits by mid-2023.

Estimates for inflation at the end of 2022 ranged widely from 17% to as high as 46%.

Despite the government's recent policy of keeping interest rates low to boost exports and credit, some economists saw the central bank changing direction and hiking its policy rate in the future.

The median estimate for the one-week repo rate was for it to remain unchanged at 14% throughout this year, but seven of the 20 economists polled expected a cut while three predicted an increase - with the top estimate at 25%.

Erdogan has backed aggressive rate cuts to support his new programme that stresses exports and credit - despite soaring inflation and widespread criticism of the policy from economists and opposition lawmakers.

Authorities have recently said Turkey's biggest economic problem is the chronic current account deficit, largely due to Turkey's heavy import bill, which they say will improve as a result of the new economic plan.

However, economists still predict the deficit would amount to 2.1% of gross domestic product in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.

Turkey's GDP growth was seen at 10.1% in 2021 as the economy rebounded from a downturn due to the pandemic, but the pace of expansion was seen dropping to 3.5% in 2022 and standing at 4.0% in 2023.


(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll (news)
)


(Polling by Indradip Ghosh and Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan in Bangalore; Writing by Ali Kucukgocmen Editing by Paul Simao)
(([email protected] , @alikucukgocmen; +905319306206))
 

pietro17elettra

Nonno pensionato
Turkey's new finance minister in the eye of a storm 17/01/2022 11:23 - RSF
By Orhan Coskun and Ali Kucukgocmen
ISTANBUL, Jan 17 (Reuters) - When Turkey's new Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati was asked last month to give details of an initiative to stem a collapse in the lira, he found a novel way to explain his strategy.

"I won't give a number now," he told a surprised television interviewer. "Can you look into my eyes? What do you see?... The economy is the sparkle in the eyes."
For the man picked by President Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan picks low-rates champion as finance minister as Turkish lira skids
to oversee and articulate his unorthodox economic policy of driving down interest rates Analysis: Erdogan's rate cuts are high-risk gamble ahead of 2023 elections
in the face of spiralling inflation Turkish inflation soars to 36%, highest in Erdogan era
and a tumbling currency, the response was characteristically unconventional.

Six weeks into the most high profile job in Erdogan's cabinet, combining the finance and treasury portfolios, the 58-year-old minister has baffled markets with remarks on issues ranging from the inflation outlook to the U.S. Federal Reserve.

"We have put aside orthodox policies, now it is heterodox policies," Nebati told businesses Turkey charts its 'own path' in fighting inflation, finance minister says
two weeks ago, referring to the rate cuts, which run counter to mainstream economic theory that fighting inflation requires higher rates, not lower.

"We will move not on a path drawn for us by others but on our own path," he said in one of many speeches and television interviews he has made since taking the job.

Government critics, including opposition politicians and foreign economists, say that path spells danger for Turkey, and that Erdogan had further unsettled markets by appointing Nebati.

"Instead of instilling confidence in the economy, you took steps that petrified everyone," the leader of the nationalist IYI Party Meral Aksener said, addressing Erdogan. "As our nation is hit, the 'Nebati Comet' you brought to the helm of the economy...shamelessly speaks of the 'sparkle in his eyes'."
Even some sources close to the government have expressed concern, saying Turkey could have picked a more market-friendly figure to run the economy at such a turbulent time.

Nebati could not be reached for comment and a Finance Ministry spokesman did not respond to questions about the minister's role. Erdogan's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Turkey's lira has fluctuated wildly in the past weeks, hitting a record low of more than 18 to the dollar last month, before recovering to just over 10 and then settling at current levels just under 14 to the U.S. currency.

A senior official from Erdogan's AK Party said Nebati took office when the global economy was "in a difficult place" and had implemented new regulations, was working closely with the president, and had stemmed the collapse of the lira.

"Some pessimistic comments are being made, and I don't think Nebati deserves this," the official said.


"POSITIVE VICIOUS CIRCLE"
Nebati has made several startling statements since his appointment, wrongly saying that the U.S. Fed is owned by five families. He also said Turkey had entered a "positive vicious circle".

Asked about a huge recovery Lira rallies late after Erdogan props up currency
in the lira after Erdogan announced last month that deposits could be protected from currency fluctuations, Nebati insisted state institutions had no role in the spike, even though official data points to significant interventions during December.

Central bank figures showed its foreign currency holdings dropped nearly $20 billion last month. Although the bank did not declare any dollar sales on the day the lira surged, analysts say half of the reserve drop was the result of backdoor interventions.

An AKP parliamentarian said Erdogan did not believe the deposit protection scheme had been clearly explained by Nebati and the government as a whole, and was concerned that although it boosted the lira, the early impact had stalled.

Nebati, however, has said demand for the scheme has been strong and that inflation will peak this month, before falling to single digits before elections scheduled for mid-2023.

Born to an Arab family from the al-Naim tribe in southern Turkey, near the border with Syria, Nebati studied political science and went into the family's textile business.

He served as board member of MUSIAD, an association of religiously oriented businesses close to Erdogan's government, and as a lawmaker for the ruling AK Party.

He was appointed deputy finance and treasury minister in September 2018, serving under Erdogan's influential son-in-law Berat Albayrak who officials say he was close to.

He stayed on after Albayrak's dramatic 2020 resignation Turkish finance minister resigns in second surprise departure after lira slide,
and took over as minister last month after the resignation of Lutfi Elvan, the last prominent figure in Turkey's cabinet or central bank seen to favour orthodox economic policy.

A business person who had dealings with Nebati during his time as deputy minister described him as an extrovert and a "storyteller" who has little direct economic training.

Nebati would sometimes stand in for Albayrak to meet foreign executives looking to invest in Turkey. On one occasion, Nebati "avoided an executive's queries and instead told stories of his childhood," the business person said, adding that the executive left without making any investment commitments.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ANALYSIS-Turkish depositors delight in lira let-up but will Erdogan's plan deliver? [nL8N2T624N]
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Additional reporting by Jonathan Spicer, Tuvan Gumrukcu and Nevzat Devranoglu; Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
(([email protected], @DominicJEvans;))
 

pietro17elettra

Nonno pensionato
Turkey's Erdogan says working on steps to boost lira interest -media 18/01/2022 12:23 - RSF
ANKARA, Jan 18 (Reuters) - President Tayyip Erdogan said that he was pleased with the lessening in lira volatility and that the government was working on steps to increase interest in the Turkish currency, state media reported on Tuesday.

State-owned Anadolu news agency reported him as telling reporters during his visit to Albania on Monday that gradually interest rates and inflation will fall and the lira will get firmer, with 2022 to be Turkey's "brightest year".

(Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu Writing by Daren Butler)
(([email protected]; +90-212-350 7053; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))
 
  • Mi piace
Reactions: 2K2

pietro17elettra

Nonno pensionato
UPDATE 1-Turkey's Erdogan says Russian invasion of Ukraine not realistic -NTV 18/01/2022 13:15 - RSF
(Adds quotes, background, details)
ANKARA, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan was cited on Tuesday as saying the prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was not realistic and that he needed to discuss the crisis with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The West has voiced fears of a possible invasion of Ukraine by tens of thousands of Russian troops gathered near its border.

Russia has denied such plans. (news)
(news)

"I don't view Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a realistic approach because Ukraine is not an ordinary country. Ukraine is a strong country," Erdogan told reporters on a trip to Albania on Monday, according to broadcaster NTV.

"For Russia to take that step, it would need to revise the situation in the whole world and its own," he said, adding the region could not accept a war anymore and that such a move will "not be right".

"Of course, we need to put these issues on the table with Mr Putin and discuss them."
NATO member Turkey has good ties with both Kyiv and Moscow, but opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya, as well as its annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014.

While forging cooperation with Russia on defence and energy, Ankara has also sold sophisticated drones to Ukraine, angering Moscow.

In November, Erdogan said Turkey was ready to be a mediator in the crisis, an offer that Kyiv welcomed but Moscow dismissed.

Ankara has also said sanctions on Russia would not be a solution to the issue. (news)
(news)


(Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu Editing by Daren Butler)
(([email protected]; +90 312 292 7021; @tuvangumrukcu; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))
 
  • Mi piace
Reactions: 2K2

pietro17elettra

Nonno pensionato
UPDATE 1-Turkey's Erdogan says working on steps to boost interest in lira -media 18/01/2022 13:23 - RSF
(Adds quotes, lira, background)
ANKARA, Jan 18 (Reuters) - President Tayyip Erdogan said that he was pleased with the lessening in lira volatility and that the government was working on steps to increase interest in the Turkish currency, state media reported on Tuesday.

"Slowly, in a gradual way and without haste, the lira will get firmer, interest rates will fall in the same way, and 2022 will be our brightest year," sate-owned Anadolu news agency and other media reported him as telling reporters during his visit to Albania on Monday.

The lira has stabilised this month after plunging 44% against the dollar last year. It was 1% weaker at 13.56 against the dollar at 1203 GMT, slightly extending losses after Erdogan's comments.

"We are quite pleased with the lessening volatility in the exchange rate," he said. "Our additional work is continuing on maintaining stability in financial markets and boosting interest in the lira."
"I take the view that interest rates are the cause and inflation the result. This result indeed is showing itself: inflation is on the verge of falling," Erdogan said, repeating his unorthodox view on the link between rates and inflation.

However, annual inflation surged to 36.1% last month, its highest in the 19 years that Erdogan has been in power.

Economists see inflation reaching 50% in the first half of the year. (news)

The inflation surge has been fuelled by the lira's slide in value. The currency weakness has in turn been driven by the central bank slashing its policy rate by 500 basis points to 14% since September. It will hold its next policy meeting on Thursday and is expected to keep the rate steady. (news)

After the lira slumped to a record low of 18.4 against the dollar on Dec. 20, Erdogan announced a scheme to support the lira by offering lira deposit accounts which would compensate savers for losses caused by further lira weakness.

(Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu Writing by Daren Butler)
(([email protected]; +90-212-350 7053; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))
 

pietro17elettra

Nonno pensionato
Egypt economy forecast to grow 5.2% in year to June, 5.5% in 2022/23 20/01/2022 08:05 - RSF
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=EGGDPAP
GDP poll data
* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=EGCPIAP
CPI poll data

By Patrick Werr
CAIRO, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Egypt's economy, buoyed by a strong revival in tourism, will grow by 5.2% in the fiscal year that ends in June 2022 and by 5.5% in 2022/23 before slowing slightly to grow 5.4% the following year, a Reuters poll showed.

After its tourist industry was devastated by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the economy has bounced back from the worst of the slowdown. Gross domestic product growth soared to 9.8% year-on-year in the July-September quarter from 0.7% a year earlier, planning ministry data showed.

The ministry expects growth to reach 5.6% this fiscal year, Planning Minister Hala al-Saeed said in November. Egypt is aiming for 5.7% growth in its 2022/23 fiscal year draft budget, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait Egypt targets 5.7% growth in draft budget for next fiscal year
said on Jan. 5.

Economists in a Reuters poll three months ago forecast growth of 5.1% this fiscal year, which ends in June.

"I think it should see a nice recovery this year. I think it will surprise how strongly tourism will recover," said Mohamed Abu Basha of EFG Hermes.

Tourism revenue plummeted to $4.9 billion in 2020/21 from $9.9 billion a year earlier as the pandemic depressed travel.

In the latest Reuters poll, economists expected annual urban consumer price inflation of 6.4% in 2021/22, 6.5% in 2022/23 and 6.2% in 2023/24 - down from October, when they predicted inflation of 7.0% for 2023/24. The central bank's inflation target range is from 5% to 9%.

Inflation Egypt's headline inflation increases slightly to 5.9% in Dec
accelerated to 5.9% year-on-year in December from 5.4% in December 2020, state statistics agency CAPMAS said this month.

"Inflation in Egypt is highly correlated to the exchange rate, as the economy continues to be import dependent," said Allen Sandeep of Naeem Brokerage.

The currency will weaken to 16.00 Egyptian pounds per dollar by the end of 2022 from its current rate of about 15.72, the Jan. 11-19 poll of 21 economists showed.

They expected the pound to weaken to 16.50 by the end of 2023 and to 16.73 by the end of 2024.

The central bank is expected to leave its overnight lending rate unchanged at 9.25% as of June then increase it to 9.50% by end-June 2023, the poll found.

"I feel yields will remain high until June and then cool off," Sandeep said, adding that lower rates should then spur greater consumer spending and an increase in business investment.


(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll (news)
)

(Reporting by Patrick Werr; Polling by Md Manzer Hussain in Bengaluru; Editing by Catherine Evans and David Gregorio)
(([email protected];))
 

pietro17elettra

Nonno pensionato
Turkey - Factors to Watch on Jan 21 21/01/2022 05:20 - RSF
ISTANBUL, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Here are news, reports and events that may affect Turkish financial markets on Friday.

The lira was quoted at 13.42 against the dollar at 0420 GMT, weaker than its close of 13.3305 on Thursday.

The main BIST 100 share index <.XU100> fell 1.36% to 2,014.21 points on Thursday.


GLOBAL MARKETS
Asian share markets and U.S. futures fell on Friday, after U.S. stocks took a knock overnight, hurt by lingering concerns over the Federal Reserve's tightening and weaker-than-expected economic and earnings data. (news)


ERDOGAN PROGRAMME
President Tayyip Erdogan will meet the management board of the MUSIAD business association in Istanbul (1200 GMT).


CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
The Turkish Statistical Institute will release consumer confidence data for January (0700 GMT).


RUSSIA, UKRAINE
Both Russia and Ukraine are open to the idea of Turkey playing a role to ease tensions between the two countries, as proposed by Ankara in November, Turkish diplomatic sources said on Thursday. (news)


ERDOGAN TO UKRAINE
President Erdogan said on Thursday he will be going to Ukraine in early February and hoped to bring together the Russian and Ukrainian leaders as soon as possible.


OPINION POLL
Erdogan's approval rating rose 2.1 percentage points in January, a poll by Metropoll Research showed on Thursday, as the Turkish lira steadied in recent weeks on the back of government measures despite soaring inflation. (news)


POWER SUPPLY
Turkey's energy ministry said on Thursday it will impose limited and predetermined power outages to large industrial facilities and electricity plants after Iran cut gas flows to Turkey for up to 10 days due to a technical failure.



NORTHWEST SYRIA
At least four people were killed and more than a dozen injured in shelling on the northwestern Syrian city of Afrin and a separate rocket attack on its outskirts on Thursday, medics at a local hospital and civil defense rescue workers said.


COVID-19
Turkey recorded 71,843 new COVID-19 cases in the space of 24 hours, health ministry data showed on Thursday. The data also showed 166 deaths due to coronavirus during the same period.


For other related news, double click on:
Turkish politics
Turkish equities
Turkish money
Turkish debt
Turkish hot stocks
Forex news
All emerging market news
All Turkish news
For real-time quotes, double click on:
Istanbul National-100 stock index <.XU100>, interbank lira trading , lira bond trading <0#TRTSYSUM=IS>

(Writing by Daren Butler)
(([email protected];))
 
  • Mi piace
Reactions: 2K2

Users who are viewing this thread

Alto