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vetro
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Monetary policy in the euro area: the next phase (europa.eu)
At a mechanical level, the combination of base effects, the easing of supply bottlenecks and the completion of the re-opening phase of the pandemic recovery will contribute to inflation falling back over time from its current extremely-high levels. However, the monetary policy challenge is to assess the strength and persistence of the cyclical adjustment dynamics to these high inflation rates that, if left unattended, could result in an unacceptably-delayed return to the two per cent inflation target, with the associated risk that inflation that remains too high for too long could de-anchor long-term inflation expectations.
In particular, the wider economic cycle will play a critical role in determining the responses of price setters and wage setters to the currently-high inflation rates. Firms that have experienced declines in profit margins due to rising input costs and workers that have suffered a reduction in living standards due to the sharp increase in consumer prices will seek to restore the real value of their earnings and incomes. However, the wider economic cycle imposes constraints on the speed and the extent to which these adjustments can take place in a sustainable manner. In particular, a deterioration in the economic cycle would limit the capacity of firms to raise prices without suffering a loss of business and the capacity of workers to obtain wage increases without suffering a reduction in employment levels.
The toll of unexpectedly-high inflation on real incomes and the real value of accumulated savings, the significant deterioration in the terms of trade (especially since so much energy is imported), the high intrinsic uncertainty associated with the Russian war on Ukraine (both in relation to energy and food costs and geo-political stability), the slowdown in the world economy and the tightening in global and domestic financial conditions that has already occurred all constitute significant economic headwinds for the euro area. At the same time, all else equal, the recovery in labour market conditions that has occurred should support faster nominal wage increases, as has already been evident (albeit only to a moderate extent) in the course of this year.
Taken together, these forces suggest that cyclical inflation forces will be subject to push-pull dynamics. In one direction, the catch up adjustment of prices and wages to the steep cost increases that have already occurred constitutes a source of intrinsic persistence that, if excessive, could generate an unacceptable delay in the return of inflation to the two per cent target. In the other direction, the deterioration in the economic cycle will weaken the capacity of firms and workers to increase prices and wages in a sustainable manner. In turn, the meeting-by-meeting re-assessment of the appropriate terminal rate will reflect the implications of the incoming data for the relative strength of these opposing adjustment forces, together of course with the incidence of any further inflation shocks.
Turning to the appropriate speed in closing the gap between the prevailing policy rate and the appropriate terminal rate, it is important to appreciate that the middle and longer segments of the yield curve, which are most important for determining financing conditions in the economy, are much more sensitive to the expected terminal rate than to the precise timeline for converging to the terminal rate. A steady pace (that is neither too slow nor too fast) in closing the gap to the terminal rate is important for several reasons.
quindi, da settimana prox, btp caleranno a step in modo tale che la cedola compensa il calo...........per speculatori attendere voto elezioni
At a mechanical level, the combination of base effects, the easing of supply bottlenecks and the completion of the re-opening phase of the pandemic recovery will contribute to inflation falling back over time from its current extremely-high levels. However, the monetary policy challenge is to assess the strength and persistence of the cyclical adjustment dynamics to these high inflation rates that, if left unattended, could result in an unacceptably-delayed return to the two per cent inflation target, with the associated risk that inflation that remains too high for too long could de-anchor long-term inflation expectations.
In particular, the wider economic cycle will play a critical role in determining the responses of price setters and wage setters to the currently-high inflation rates. Firms that have experienced declines in profit margins due to rising input costs and workers that have suffered a reduction in living standards due to the sharp increase in consumer prices will seek to restore the real value of their earnings and incomes. However, the wider economic cycle imposes constraints on the speed and the extent to which these adjustments can take place in a sustainable manner. In particular, a deterioration in the economic cycle would limit the capacity of firms to raise prices without suffering a loss of business and the capacity of workers to obtain wage increases without suffering a reduction in employment levels.
The toll of unexpectedly-high inflation on real incomes and the real value of accumulated savings, the significant deterioration in the terms of trade (especially since so much energy is imported), the high intrinsic uncertainty associated with the Russian war on Ukraine (both in relation to energy and food costs and geo-political stability), the slowdown in the world economy and the tightening in global and domestic financial conditions that has already occurred all constitute significant economic headwinds for the euro area. At the same time, all else equal, the recovery in labour market conditions that has occurred should support faster nominal wage increases, as has already been evident (albeit only to a moderate extent) in the course of this year.
Taken together, these forces suggest that cyclical inflation forces will be subject to push-pull dynamics. In one direction, the catch up adjustment of prices and wages to the steep cost increases that have already occurred constitutes a source of intrinsic persistence that, if excessive, could generate an unacceptable delay in the return of inflation to the two per cent target. In the other direction, the deterioration in the economic cycle will weaken the capacity of firms and workers to increase prices and wages in a sustainable manner. In turn, the meeting-by-meeting re-assessment of the appropriate terminal rate will reflect the implications of the incoming data for the relative strength of these opposing adjustment forces, together of course with the incidence of any further inflation shocks.
Turning to the appropriate speed in closing the gap between the prevailing policy rate and the appropriate terminal rate, it is important to appreciate that the middle and longer segments of the yield curve, which are most important for determining financing conditions in the economy, are much more sensitive to the expected terminal rate than to the precise timeline for converging to the terminal rate. A steady pace (that is neither too slow nor too fast) in closing the gap to the terminal rate is important for several reasons.
quindi, da settimana prox, btp caleranno a step in modo tale che la cedola compensa il calo...........per speculatori attendere voto elezioni
vetro
valgo zero ma non sono scemo
MILANO, 2 settembre (Reuters) - Gazprom rende noto di avere interrotto totalmente i flussi di gas attraverso il gasdotto Nord Stream finché i guasti all'infrastruttura non saranno risolti.
Il colosso dell'energia russa non dà tempistiche per il riavvio del trasporto del gas attraverso il Nord Stream 1.
vetro
valgo zero ma non sono scemo
2 settembre (Reuters) - La Banca centrale europea sarà costretta a tagliare i tassi di interesse all'inizio del prossimo anno, secondo un economista senior di Allianz.
"Come molti altri, vediamo la recessione come inevitabile nel quarto trimestre", ha detto a Reuters Andreas Jobst, responsabile globale della ricerca macroeconomica e del mercato dei capitali del colosso tedesco.
Jobst, in precedenza economista del Fondo monetario internazionale (Fmi), ha affermato che la crescita della zona euro si contrarrà a meno 0,7% l'anno prossimo, previsione che, ha precisato Jobst, è peggiore del consensus.
"Immagino che sul fronte monetario le ambizioni dei falchi saranno ridimensionate nel primo trimestre. Di fatto, ci aspettiamo un primo taglio dei tassi alla fine del primo trimestre e nel secondo", ha detto Jobst.
"Come molti altri, vediamo la recessione come inevitabile nel quarto trimestre", ha detto a Reuters Andreas Jobst, responsabile globale della ricerca macroeconomica e del mercato dei capitali del colosso tedesco.
Jobst, in precedenza economista del Fondo monetario internazionale (Fmi), ha affermato che la crescita della zona euro si contrarrà a meno 0,7% l'anno prossimo, previsione che, ha precisato Jobst, è peggiore del consensus.
"Immagino che sul fronte monetario le ambizioni dei falchi saranno ridimensionate nel primo trimestre. Di fatto, ci aspettiamo un primo taglio dei tassi alla fine del primo trimestre e nel secondo", ha detto Jobst.