Titoli di Stato area Euro Titoli di stato Portogallo - Tendenze ed operatività (1 Viewer)

[Vespasianus]

jornaldenegocios.pt
Défice externo quase duplica no primeiro semestre - Conjuntura

As contas externas portuguesas continuam a dar sinais negativos, com o défice conjunto das balanças corrente e de capital a manter em Junho o ritmo de agravamento do mês anterior.

De acordo com os dados da Balança de Pagamentos publicados esta segunda-feira, 21 de Agosto, pelo Banco de Portugal, o défice externo situou-se no primeiro semestre nos 685 milhões de euros. Até Abril o saldo era positivo (823 milhões de euros) e nos primeiros cinco meses do ano passou para sinal negativo (-337 milhões de euros).

O agravamento em Junho atirou o défice conjunto das balanças corrente e de capital para 685 milhões de euros (-0,7% do PIB) no primeiro semestre deste ano, um valor que quase duplica o saldo também negativo registado no mesmo período de 2016 (-356 milhões de euros, ou 0,4% do PIB).

Segundo o Banco de Portugal, este desempenho negativo é explicado pela evolução nas balanças de bens e de rendimento primário.

A balança de bens e serviços continua a apresentar um saldo positivo (713 milhões de euros), mas o aumento mais forte nas importações de mercadorias levou a que o excedente comercial recuasse em 412 milhões de euros. Um valor que explica a diferença entre o défice externo da primeira metade deste ano e de 2016.

O "aumento do excedente da balança de serviços em 825 milhões de euros foi insuficiente para compensar o aumento do défice da balança de bens", refere o Banco de Portugal.

A melhoria na balança de serviços (o excedente supera os 6 mil milhões de euros, ou 6,5% do PIB) continua a verificar-se sobretudo à custa do turismo. Na rubrica "Viagens e Turismo" o excedente aumentou 808 milhões de euros, fixando-se em 3.953 milhões de euros.

Quanto à balança de bens, o défice agravou-se mais de mil milhões de euros, para 5,3 mil milhões de euros, o que equivale a 5,7% do PIB (mais 1,2 pontos percentuais do que no período homólogo).

Esta deterioração é explicada pelo facto de as importações de mercadorias terem crescido 14,7% no primeiro semestre, o que corresponde a um ritmo mais forte do que o verificado nas exportações (+12,1%).

O forte crescimento das importações deve-se também ao bom desempenho da economia nacional, que no primeiro semestre deste ano cresceu (+2,8%) ao ritmo mais forte da última década. A aceleração do crescimento económico tende a reflectir-se no aumento mais forte das importações, pois impulsiona a compra de mais bens produzidos no exterior, como por exemplo automóveis no caso das famílias e maquinaria no caso das empresas.

No que diz respeito às restantes balanças que permitem apurar o valor do défice externo, desequilíbrio da balança de rendimento primário aumentou 211 milhões de euros, devido "à redução de subsídios recebidos da União Europeia e ao aumento do défice da balança de rendimentos de investimento".

Já o saldo da balança financeira registou uma redução dos activos líquidos de Portugal sobre o exterior no valor de 193 milhões de euros, que é "explicada essencialmente pelo aumento de passivos do sector das sociedades não financeiras, associado sobretudo a operações de investimento directo.

 

[Fabrib]

08/22/2017 | 08:58pm EDT
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is working on a proposal that would allow southern euro zone countries to tap into the single currency bloc's bailout fund to boost investments during recessions, a newspaper said on Wednesday.
If the unsourced report in the mass-selling German daily Bild is confirmed, the plan would mark a major change of policy for Schaeuble who had until recently always opposed transfers from richer euro zone countries to poorer members like Greece.
The Finance Ministry was not immediately available to comment on the report.
Germany is the biggest contributor to the European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone's bailout fund.
Bild said Schaeuble intended to make the proposal after Germany's Sept.24 election, which his conservatives led by Chancellor Angela Merkel are expected to win.
In exchange for more flexible access to the ESM, Schaeuble wants the fund to have more say over national debt and budgets.
Bild added that the proposal was a goodwill gesture toward French President Emmanuel Macron who has vowed to work with Merkel on a roadmap for closer euro zone integration.
Schaeuble said earlier this year that he shared Macron's view that financial transfers from richer to poorer states are necessary within the euro zone.
A joint euro zone budget and a common finance minister are among ideas for deeper European Union integration around the single currency after Britain leaves the EU in 2019. Completing a banking union has also been proposed.
Schaeuble is loathed in many southern euro zone countries and especially in Greece, for insisting on tough austerity measures in exchange for bailout funds during the bloc's debt crisis that started seven years ago.
(Reporting by Joseph Nasr; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

 

[Vespasianus]

Strong euro leads big bond buyers into government debt rethink

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro's double-digit gains this year are prompting some of the world's biggest money managers to view European government debt more favourably just as the central bank is planning to withdraw its support from the bond market.

Euro zone government bond yields have risen steadily since September 2016, when speculation over a reduction in the European Central Bank's 2 trillion euro (1.83 trillion pounds) plus bond-purchase programme began. Investors worried a drop in official bond purchases would send yields soaring.

But some investors are considering another push into the market thanks to the currency's strength.

They say further euro gains could push back the ECB's plans to remove post-crisis monetary stimulus and make government bonds more attractive due to a combination of currency gains and policy support.

"Mainly because of the euro rebound, we couldn't afford to be short duration in government bonds, so we changed our stance in June," said Patrick Barbe, who heads the sovereign team at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

[...]

The euro has gained more than 12 percent this year against the dollar and is the best performing currency in developed markets, with most of the gain coming in the last three months.
A strong euro reduces import prices and therefore keeps inflation lower in the bloc, making it harder for the ECB to tighten monetary policy and encouraging bond investors.

Analysts say a 1 percent rise in the euro's trade-weighted index shaves 0.3 to 0.5 percent off headline inflation.

...

Yields on German 10-year debt have fallen 20 basis points to 0.4 percent over the last four weeks as the euro's rally gained momentum.

"The euro's strength against the dollar over the last couple of months, since (ECB chief Mario) Draghi flagged a possible change to policy, will bring down the underlying inflation forecasts," said Brendan Lardner, a portfolio manager at State Street Global Advisor.

...

"If we see a rapid move up to $1.20-$1.22 area against the dollar, we would have more confidence in going tactically long duration, most likely in the 10-year euro zone government bond space," State Street’s Lardner said.

Money market futures suggest investors anticipate roughly a 60 percent chance of one quarter point rate hike from the ECB by the end of 2018. That is down sharply from earlier this month when a rate hike was fully priced in and last month when investors were expecting one as early as next June.

"We are a little bit underweight Germany compared to the U.S. because of the spread between the two but that would change if the euro keeps strengthening, particularly keeping in mind the pace of the move," said Seamus Mac Gorain, fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, which manages $1.7 trillion of assets.

He said that if the euro hits $1.25, it would make them more bullish on euro zone government bonds.

Strong euro leads big bond buyers into government debt rethink

 

[Vespasianus]

ECB faces gaps in understanding new realities
LINDAU, Germany (Reuters) - Unconventional monetary policy is a success, but gaps in understanding the relatively new tools remain, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Wednesday, cautioning against hasty policy responses to the new reality.

Emphasizing the need for rigorous research, Draghi said central banks need to carefully weigh their policy steps, giving up their defence of obsolete approaches while acknowledging gaps in their knowledge of how new policies work.

Draghi's comments come as the ECB is confronted by an economy where robust growth is accompanied by anaemic inflation. It is a combination that has raised questions about the validity of older doctrines on inflation, its relationship to employment, and central banks' ability to affect price growth.

ECB faces gaps in understanding new realities - Draghi

 

[Vespasianus]

uk.reuters.com
Igniting QE debate, ECB's Weidmann calls for quick end
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should quickly end asset buys next year as the outlook does not warrant the extension of its 2.3 trillion euro scheme, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said, weighing in on the biggest issue facing the ECB this autumn.

Speaking to German newspaper Boersen-Zeitung on Wednesday, Weidmann called for a quick and orderly end to the asset buys, arguing that inflation will continue to gradually rise and ECB policy would still remain expansionary for years.

Considered a leading hawk, Weidmann has always opposed the asset buys and his unambiguous comments lay down the Bundesbank's position just as the ECB prepares to debate whether to extend the asset purchases or start winding them down next year.

"Based on our June forecast, there is no need in my view for taking further action for next year and in particular not for extending the buying programme," Weidmann told Boersen-Zeitung in an interview.

Speaking earlier in the day, ECB President Mario Draghi avoided any discussion of currency policy but noted that any policy change should be done with care as policymakers do not full understand how unconventional policies or the new economic realities may work.

The ECB has already bought over 2 trillion euros worth of bonds, depressing borrowing costs and successfully igniting growth, which is now on its best run since the global financial crisis.
But inflation is still below its target of close to but below 2 percent, likely staying there at least through 2019, raising concerns that inflation may be behaving differently than before the global financial crisis.

Weidmann said he was also opposed to making technical changes to the programme, arguing they would lead to negative consequences.

The comment is significant as the ECB is expected to hit many of its self imposed purchase limits next year, including on buying no more than one-third of country's outstanding bonds, and without changes to its rules, the asset buys would have to be phased out.

Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg

 

[Vespasianus]

uk.reuters.com
ECB's asset buys do little for inflation: Bundesbank research
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank’s 2.3 trillion euros worth of asset buys propped up growth but failed to boost inflation and may have actually increased risks to financial stability, research published by the Bundesbank on Friday showed.

The conclusions of the paper support the long held views of the German central bank that bond purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing, were unnecessary and should be phased out without delay, ending the ECB’s biggest foray yet into unconventional monetary policy.

“We find that ECB balance sheet policies, in the form of direct asset purchases, bring down financial stress for some periods after the shock,” the paper concluded. “This positive effect is reversed thereafter as stress increases above its pre-shock level.”

“At the same time, asset purchase shocks have an expansionary effect on economic activity, while the effect on prices remains insignificant,” said the authors, whose view does not necessarily represent the views of the Bundesbank.

With the asset buys due to expire at the end of the year, policymakers will debate this autumn whether to extend bond purchases into 2018 or wind down the scheme.
While stimulus has pushed growth above 2 percent, more than twice what is considered the euro area’s potential, inflation is still weak and will miss the ECB’s target of almost 2 percent for years to come, leaving policymakers with a dilemma.

The Bundesbank has long argued that asset buys not only skirt the rules prohibiting central banks from financing budgets, they distort markets potentially leading to asset bubbles and do little for inflation.
"Our analysis shows that, while output effects in the euro area and Germany are positive, there are indications of increasing risks to financial stability," the research added.

The paper argued that given ample liquidity provided by the ECB, commercial banks reduce loan write-offs and engage in more risky lending, ultimately leading to higher financial stability risks.

 

[Vespasianus]

jornaldenegocios.pt
Tesouro avança com operação de troca de dívida - Obrigações
O Tesouro vai avançar com uma operação de troca de obrigações, de forma a gerir o perfil de maturidades da dívida portuguesa. A agência que gere o crédito público, o IGCP, anunciou que essa operação será feita esta quarta-feira, 30 de Agosto. O objectivo é recomprar Obrigações do Tesouro (OT) com maturidades em 2018, 2019 e 2020 em troca de novos títulos com prazo em 2022.

Nos últimos anos, o Estado tem feito operações deste tipo para gerir o risco de refinanciamento. Nesta oferta de troca o objectivo é diminuir os montantes a amortizar nos próximos anos. Em 2018 o Tesouro enfrenta reembolsos de dívida de médio e longo prazo de 15,84 mil milhões de euros. Em 2019, tem de devolver 10,17 mil milhões de euros. E em 2020 o valor projectado de amortizações é de 14,62 mil milhões de euros.
Parte destas necessidades de refinanciamento serão aliviadas, dependendo do grau de aceitação da operação. E passará para 2022, ano em que o Tesouro tem actualmente 10,54 mil milhões de euros para reembolsar.

Em relação aos preços propostos, estão em linha com os valores verificados em mercado secundário. Na OT com taxa de cupão de 4,45% e que vence em Junho de 2018, o IGCP propõe uma recompra a 103,77 euros por cada 100 euros de valor nominal, segundo o comunicado divulgado esta terça-feira. No mercado secundário, estes títulos negoceiam a 103,8 euros por cada 100 euros de valor nominal.

Nos títulos que vencem em 2019, que têm uma taxa de cupão de 4,75%, o Tesouro dispõe-se a comprá-los por um valor de 108,46 euros por cada 100 euros de valor nominal. Esta OT tem um preço de 108,56 euros por cada 100 euros de valor nominal em mercado secundário.

E na OT que vence em 2020, que tem uma taxa de cupão de 4,80%, a oferta é de 112,88 euros por cada 100 euros de valor nominal. No mercado secundário, estas OT negoceiam com um valor de 112,97 euros por cada 100 euros de valor nominal

Já nas novas OT a emitir para quem aceitar a oferta de troca, o preço oferecido é de 105,18 euros por cada 100 euros de valor nominal. Esses instrumentos negoceiam a 105,17 euros por cada 100 euros de valor nominal.

 

[Vespasianus]

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation rose by more than expected in August to its highest rate in four months, flash estimates showed on Thursday, raising expectations that the European Central Bank will start winding down its extra-loose monetary policy.

The EU statistics office Eurostat estimated that consumer prices in the euro zone increased by 1.5 percent year-on-year in August, from 1.3 percent in July and above market expectations of a 1.4 percent rise.

It was the highest rate since April, when inflation was 1.9 percent, briefly hitting the ECB target of close to but just below 2 percent.

Excluding the two most volatile components of unprocessed food and energy, a measure closely watched by the ECB, inflation was stable at 1.3 percent in August, against market expectations of a drop to 1.2 percent.

The higher-than-expected inflation estimates are likely to increase expectations of a tightening of ECB monetary policy in the coming months. The ECB will hold a policy meeting next week.

Energy products grew by 4.0 percent in August on the year, from a 2.2 percent rise in July. The other main components of the indicator were stable.
Eurostat’s flash estimate for the month does not include a monthly calculation.

In a separate release Eurostat said on Thursday that the unemployment rate in the euro zone was 9.1 percent in July, the same as in June. It remained at its lowest level since February 2009.

In Germany, the largest economy of the bloc, unemployment dropped to 3.7 percent in July from 3.8 percent in June, raising expectations of bigger wage rises that could further increase inflation in the euro zone.
Wage growth is also closely watched by the ECB to determine monetary policy.
However, in France and Italy, the second and third economies of the bloc, unemployment went up in July.

 

[Vespasianus]

uk.reuters.com
ECB to announce quantitative easing cutback in October; shut programme by end-2018
Shrutee Sarkar

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is likely to announce a reduction of its monthly asset purchases in October, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll, who also said they expect the central bank to shut down the programme by the end of next year.

Expectations the ECB will scale back its stimulus have been supported by solid growth in the euro zone this year, although inflation, at 1.5 percent, remains below the central bank’s target of just under 2 percent.
In July, the ECB said it had not discussed reducing its asset purchases, also known as quantitative easing (QE), but signalled the change would likely come “this autumn”.

Nearly three-fourths of 66 economists in a Reuters poll taken Aug 28-31 expect the central bank to announce a change in October. Just three weeks ago, slightly over half of economists polled had said such an announcement would come in September.

But in the latest poll, only 15 respondents expected it at the Sept 7 policy-setting meeting. The remaining five economists said the central bank will wait until December.

“The ECB at best will charge the relevant committee to examine how QE can proceed in September, and the concrete announcement of tapering and how QE will proceed will come only in October,” said Peter Vanden Houte, chief euro zone economist at ING Financial Markets.

Asked what the ECB is likely to do beyond December, when the asset purchases programme is scheduled to expire, economists unanimously said the central bank would extend it but would reduce monthly purchases from the current 60 billion euros. Most said they would be reduced to 40 billion euros a month to start.

The euro zone is seeing its strongest run of growth in more than a decade. And while inflation has lagged - as it is in many economies - the latest euro zone data were higher than expected.
That may support the case for tapering, but the central bank is now dealing with a strengthening euro, up over 12 percent this year against the dollar. A rising exchange rate tends to push down import prices, further weakening inflation.

The euro’s strength has an increasing number of policymakers at the central bank concerned, according to an exclusive Reuters story on Thursday based on three sources familiar with those discussions.
A stronger currency has also increased the chances of an even gentler reduction in the pace of asset purchases.

“Rather than signal exit in advance, we think the ECB strategy will be to wrap the exit decision in dovishness when it is announced in October,” wrote Mark Wall, chief euro area economist at Deutsche Bank, in a note.

“With the full normalisation of core inflation not yet compelling, the onus is on the ECB to avoid markets, and in particular the exchange rate, overshooting.”

The discussions over the future of the asset purchases programme are likely to begin the rate meeting in September. But no decision is expected until after the German federal elections later in the month.

The ECB is expected to keep its interest rates on hold through to next year.

Fifty-eight of 63 economists who answered an extra question said the ECB is likely to completely end its QE programme by the end of next year, including 10 respondents who expect it to end by June. The remaining five said it won’t end until 2019.

But much will depend on how ECB President Mario Draghi communicates the change of policy to avoid an extreme reaction, or “taper tantrum”, as the market reaction was called to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first steps when it cut back QE.

Some analysts, though, are concerned that the ECB’s room for manoeuvre is limited.

“Draghi remained dovish at the last meeting, arguing that there is no hurry to discuss tapering and that the Governing Council has shown in the past that it will find the means to do more if the inflation outlook is not in line with the ECB’s self-imposed ‘aim’,” Anatoli Annenkov, senior European economist at Societe Generale, wrote in a note.

“However, he has done little to lean against the recent tightening in financial conditions, driven by the strong economy and market convictions that the ECB is running out of options.”

Polling by Shrutee Sarkar and Khushboo Mittal; Editing by Ross Finley, Larry King

 

[Vespasianus]

eco.pt
PIB afunda juros da dívida portuguesa – ECO

Assim que o INE reviu em alta o crescimento da economia portuguesa às 11h00, os juros da dívida portuguesa registaram descida acentuada no mercado secundário. Taxa a 10 anos cai para 2,8%

Foi causa-efeito. Assim que o Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) anunciou que, afinal, a economia cresceu mais do que inicialmente previsto no segundo trimestre do ano, os juros associados à dívida portuguesa registaram uma queda acentuada.

Eram 11h00 quando a agência de estatísticas revelou que o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) português subiu 2,9% entre abril de junho, uma taxa de crescimento homóloga que foi revista em alta face aos 2,8% da estimativa provisória. São já nove meses em que a economia portuguesa está com um desempenho superior ao da Zona Euro.

A partir desse momento, à medida que o mercado ia incorporando esta informação, as yields das obrigações portuguesas iniciaram uma correção em baixa, como demonstra o gráfico da Bloomberg em baixo. No gráfico é possível observar a descida expressiva da taxa das obrigações do Tesouro a 10 anos que estão a ser negociadas em mercado secundário, entre investidores. A taxa cai 4,1 pontos para 2,819%, com a tendência de queda a ser geral em todas as maturidades. Lá fora o sentimento também é favorável à descida dos juros espanhóis e italianos.

Isto acontece depois de o IGCP ter concretizado esta quarta-feira uma operação de troca de dívida, que permitiu empurrar para 2022 reembolsos que teria de fazer nos próximos três anos num montante de cerca de 1.735 milhões de euros.

Além disso, a agência Moody’s tem prevista para esta sexta-feira uma atualização da notação da República portuguesa. O rating está no lixo desde 2011, quando Portugal pediu assistência financeira internacional. Mas há alguma expectativa de que os analistas venham a melhorar as perspetivas de evolução do rating de “estável” para “positivo”, abrindo a porta a uma subida da notação.