Spazio di prova, 2° capitolo (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione impa_ro
- Data di Inizio
gilles1
Forumer storico
weekly analisi grafica
MACD non dice nulla
DMI il fine ciclo arriva di solito con D- molto più alto e oggi sembra incrociare UP con D+
STOCH sembra orientato a un ultimo affondo piuttosto che a un rimbalzo
le candele non mostrrano un chiaro fuori banda
MORALE
tutto è possibile, anche la ripartenza
ma un crollo finale questa settimana non mi sorprenderebbe
MACD non dice nulla
DMI il fine ciclo arriva di solito con D- molto più alto e oggi sembra incrociare UP con D+
STOCH sembra orientato a un ultimo affondo piuttosto che a un rimbalzo
le candele non mostrrano un chiaro fuori banda
MORALE
tutto è possibile, anche la ripartenza
ma un crollo finale questa settimana non mi sorprenderebbe
gilles1
Forumer storico
Summer ICL’s and what to expect
Every year between May and July gold completes a summer ICL. Here is what has happened so far in this decade following that ICL.
2011 gold rallied 10 weeks for a 30% gain
2012 gold rallied 21 weeks for an 18% gain
Bear market begins:
2013 gold rallied 9 weeks for a 21% gain
2014 gold rallied 6 weeks for an 8.5% gain
2015 gold rallied 12 weeks for an 11.2% gain
2016 gold rallied 6 weeks for a 14.7% gain
2017 gold rallied 9 weeks for a 13.2% gain
The minimum gain out of a summer rally was 8%.
The average rally is 12%.
The minimum duration is 6 weeks.
The average duration is 10 weeks. If we toss out the long rally in 2012 the average is 8.5 weeks.
As I believe gold is in a new bull market I think we should assume at least a 10% gain from the bottom of the ICL to top of the summer rally and at least a two month duration.
A 10% gain would take gold back to $1365 over the next 2 months assuming we completed the ICL on Friday. That should at least be good enough for GDX to test the top of it’s trading range at 25-26.
If on the other hand this is the intermediate cycle where gold finally breaks free of its basing pattern and it pushes up to, or through $1400, the Bollinger band contraction has surely produced enough energy for an explosive move in mining stocks that at least tests the baby bull high (roughly $31-$32 in GDX).
da
Summer ICL's and what to expect - Smart Money Tracker
Every year between May and July gold completes a summer ICL. Here is what has happened so far in this decade following that ICL.
2011 gold rallied 10 weeks for a 30% gain
2012 gold rallied 21 weeks for an 18% gain
Bear market begins:
2013 gold rallied 9 weeks for a 21% gain
2014 gold rallied 6 weeks for an 8.5% gain
2015 gold rallied 12 weeks for an 11.2% gain
2016 gold rallied 6 weeks for a 14.7% gain
2017 gold rallied 9 weeks for a 13.2% gain
The minimum gain out of a summer rally was 8%.
The average rally is 12%.
The minimum duration is 6 weeks.
The average duration is 10 weeks. If we toss out the long rally in 2012 the average is 8.5 weeks.
As I believe gold is in a new bull market I think we should assume at least a 10% gain from the bottom of the ICL to top of the summer rally and at least a two month duration.
A 10% gain would take gold back to $1365 over the next 2 months assuming we completed the ICL on Friday. That should at least be good enough for GDX to test the top of it’s trading range at 25-26.
If on the other hand this is the intermediate cycle where gold finally breaks free of its basing pattern and it pushes up to, or through $1400, the Bollinger band contraction has surely produced enough energy for an explosive move in mining stocks that at least tests the baby bull high (roughly $31-$32 in GDX).
da
Summer ICL's and what to expect - Smart Money Tracker