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tommy271

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Slovenian Economic Mirror: Amid a further deterioration of the situation in the financial sector, economic activity remains modest

/12.06.2012/
LJUBLJANA



In the first quarter of this year, economic activity in the euro area stagnated, while for 2012 as a whole, the European Commission and the OECD project a contraction of economic activity. The key reason why economic activity in the euro area exceeded the expectations from the EC’s spring forecast in the first quarter was GDP growth in Germany. The EC and the OECD nevertheless expect a decline in euro area GDP for this year. The forecasts are sill accompanied by significant downside risks that are mainly due to uncertainties regarding the sovereign debt crisis. Unfavourable labour market conditions will continue and the high unemployment rate will, amid continued fiscal consolidation and bank deleveraging, additionally impede domestic demand.

In the first quarter, Slovenia’s GDP increased somewhat relative to the last quarter of 2011, but Slovenia remains among EU Member States with the largest drops in activity during the crisis. Year-on-year, GDP contracted by 0.2%. Net exports again made the largest contribution to growth in economic activity, but the y-o-y growth of exports slowed further while imports declined. The key reason for a smaller y-o-y decline of GDP than in the previous quarter was growth in household and government consumption. The latter is likely a result of the relatively strong growth of employment in the general government sector. In household consumption, spending on durable goods continues to drop and current data show a continuation of these trends. The y-o-y decline in investment was larger than in the previous quarter, as besides construction investment, investment in machinery and equipment also dropped y-o-y.

Labour market conditions remain unfavourable, regardless of declining unemployment; the average gross wage rose somewhat in the first quarter on the back of extraordinary payments in the private sector. The number of employed persons, excluding self-employed farmers, dropped somewhat further in the first quarter of 2012, once again most notably in construction, while in public services employment continued to grow. On the other hand, data from the labour force survey show an improvement (seasonally adjusted), which we estimate is a result of an increase in informal work. In April, registered unemployment declined somewhat again (seasonally adjusted) but remained high (109,084 persons). In the first four months as a whole, it was down 1.2% year-on-year, largely on account of a lower number of registered persons and a higher number of unemployed deleted from the register, mainly for neglect of duties. In the first quarter, wage movements in private sector activities were marked by extraordinary payments, while in public service activities, wages were down y-o-y due to intervention measures.

Consumer prices rose by 0.6% in May, while their y-o-y growth dropped to 2.4%. Monthly growth was underpinned particularly by stronger seasonal movements in prices of food and clothing and footwear, while growth in the latest twelve months remains low due to modest economic activity. This time, liquid fuel prices reduced monthly inflation by 0.2 p.p., but they still contributed 0.6 p.p. to y-o-y inflation. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, y-o-y inflation in the euro area also stood at 2.4%.

In April, the situation in the financial system continued to deteriorate. The lending activity declined again in April. The volume of household and corporate loans was down, in particular, while the crediting of the government sector slowed significantly. In the first quarter, banks strengthened the repayment of all types of foreign liabilities while increasing short-term borrowing. In March, the volume of banks’ bad claims increased by the highest amount thus far, reaching almost EUR 6 bn or as much as 11.8% of the total exposure of banks. Around a third of the increase is attributable to the strengthening of non-performing claims, especially claims against the construction sector and financial and insurance services.

In May, the National Assembly adopted a revised state budget for 2012, setting revenue at EUR 7.9 bn and expenditure at EUR 9.0 bn. With the aim to avoid increasing the deficit as was the case in previous years, the revised budget envisages much lower expenditure than the previous budget and 3.7% lower than in 2011. In order to reach this goal, the Public Finance Balance Act (ZUJF) was passed in addition to the revised budget, putting in place a wide array of measures and amending 39 laws. As at the time of the adoption of the revised budget certain ZUJF provisions were still being reconciled, the total cut in expenditure is smaller than planned, which will require additional reallocations of expenditures within the budget. With revenue estimated to be 1.4% higher than in 2011, the revised budget envisages a deficit in the amount of EUR 1,071 m, i.e. 3.0% of the estimated GDP. The decline in the budgetary deficit is in line with Slovenia’s commitments in the Stability Programme – Update 2012, which anticipates consolidation of public finances.



UMAR - Slovenian Economic Mirror: Amid a further deterioration of the situation in the financial sector, economic activity remains modest
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
[FONT=verdana,]Il 71,4 per cento dei risparmiatori non teme uno scenario di tipo greco o spagnolo[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,]Gli sloveni hanno fiducia nell’euro[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,]Non vi sono rischi palpabili di fuga dei depositi
dalle banche o di conversione in altre valute rifugio
[/FONT]






LUBIANA – Nonostante la crisi, la maggior parte degli sloveni ha fiducia nella valuta europea e nella sicurezza dei propri depositi in banca. Sono questi i risultati dell’inchiesta condotta dal quotidiano “Delo” su 450 cittadini contattati telefonicamente, da cui risulta che il 71,4 per cento dei risparmiatori sloveni non ha intenzione di ritirare il proprio denaro depositato in banca, nonostante i recenti sviluppi in Grecia e in Spagna. Solamente il 26,7 per cento è di parere contrario.


UNA MONETA SOLIDA Per ciò che concerne la fiducia negli istituti di credito nazionali, il 25,4 per cento crede nelle banche slovene, mentre il 30,4 per cento non ha fiducia nelle proprie banche. In materia di euro, accolto dagli sloveni come propria valuta nel 2007, l’apprezzamento è abbastanza alto. Infatti, il 47 per cento ritiene che i risparmi in euro siano solidi, mentre il 17,2 per cento è del parere che tale valuta non sia stabile.


NESSUNA SORPRESA Il macroeconomista Jože Mencinger ha dichiarato che queste risposte dei cittadini non sono una sorpresa, perché “la fiducia nel sistema bancario sloveno è ancor sempre alta, nonostante le discussioni continue sulla crisi greca e la ricapitalizzazione della Nova Ljubljanska Banka”. Inoltre, Mencinger ritiene comprensibile che gli sloveni credano più all’euro che alle banche nazionali, perché tale valuta, in alcuni Stati dell’UE, viene ancor sempre percepita come una delle più forti. Infine, il macroeconomista ha ricordato che l’euro è la moneta unica dell’UE, per cui è difficile che qualcuno decida di trasformare i propri risparmi in un’altra valuta, come succedeva anni fa.

(La Voce del Popolo - Fiume)
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Slovenia's NLB bank needs EUR500m to meet new capital requirements






bne - 18.06.2012


Slovenia's biggest bank Nova Ljubljanska Banka (NLB) needs about EUR500m to meet new capital requirements, plus additional funds to keep operating into the future. Finance Minister Janez Sustersic told parliament June 15 that the amount is higher than an original figure of EUR320m set by the European Banking Authority last December, Reuters reported.

NLB is burdened by non-performing loans to local firms and made a loss in 2011 for the third year in a row. The money is needed to lift its Core Tier 1 capital ratio from 6% to the required 9%.

Sustersic also told parliament that "in the coming months additional capital will be needed to ensure normal functioning of the bank which includes cleaning up the bank's balance sheet and solving the problem of bad loans and non-banking investments."

On June 15, parliament adopted new laws allowing the state-owned bank to issue a contingent convertible (CoCo) bond in June to meet EBA capital requirements, AFP reported. The government then hopes to find a strategic investor for the bank by the end of this year and Sustersic told parliament talks with investors who would buy the CoCo bond could be completed within a week.

Parliament also authorized the government to reduce the state's 55.6% stake in NLB to 25%.
According to local media, Belgian banking and insurance group KBC, which owns 25% of NLB, is the most likely buyer of the bond which could later be converted into stock.

In an opinion piece June 16, the daily Vecer called for a prompt decision on the fate of state-owned banks, saying that there is no more room left for bungling.

"Are we going to sell them? If yes, will we keep at least some stake in them? If not, how are we going to strengthen the banks, so that they will support the Slovenian economy while repairing all the sins from the past?" Vecer wrote.

In May, the Bank of Slovenia said Slovenian banks are in need of fresh capital and must reduce their heavy dependency on European Central Bank financing, after revealing the sector's 2011 losses spiked. The Slovenian banking system posted a joint loss of EUR436m last year versus a loss of EUR98.1m in 2010, mainly due to non-performing loans to local firms.

Source: bne
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Slovenian Central Bank Sees Worsening Outlook in Second Quarter


By Boris Cerni - Jun 14, 2012 9:47 AM GMT+0200


Slovenia’s economy will probably shrink in the second quarter as confidence drops and austerity measures cut demand, the country’s central bank said.

“The outlook for the second quarter is unfavorable for the moment as confidence indicators remain low, uncertainties in the international environment have increased and fiscal austerity measures will have an impact on consumption as early as June,” Ljubljana-based Banka Slovenije said in a report today.

Gross domestic product rose 0.2 percent in the first quarter from the previous three months as household and government consumption offset slowing exports and a decline in investment. GDP shrank 0.2 percent in the period compared with a year earlier.

The country’s banks are relying on financing from the European Central Bank as record losses and uncertainty in the European banking industry limits access to wholesale funding.

Lending to the economy stagnated and the Slovenian banking industry’s assets rose 1.4 billion euros ($1.76 billion) in March after lenders took out 2 billion euros of loans from the ECB, the report said. Banks, including Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. and Nova Kreditna Banka Maribor d.d. used the loans to repay maturing debt.

The banking industry reported a loss of 19.7 million euros in the first quarter on high impairment and provisioning charges, it said.


To contact the reporter on this story: Boris Cerni in Ljubljana at [email protected]
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Slovenia, nuovi dati Pil pro capite




martedì 19 giugno 2012


L'Istituto Nazionale di Statistica della Slovenia ha pubblicato i nuovi dati relativi all'andamento della produzione interna lorda pro capite.
Stando alle rilevazioni compiute dall'ente, il Pil pro capite del Paese sarebbe pari all'85% della media UE.

La stima si riferisce al 2010, e mostra un significativo peggioramento rispetto al 2008, quando la Slovenia riuscì a toccare il 91% della media UE.

(euregion.net)
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Slovenia’s Benchmark Bond Yield Rises on Europe, Domestic Woes


By Boris Cerni - Jun 19, 2012 12:49 PM GMT+0200






Slovenia’s benchmark bond yield rose above 6 percent for the first time since February as the debt crisis in Europe deepens and its largest bank needs more cash than previously announced.

The bond maturing in 2021 extended losses for the second day, with the yield reaching 6.0155 percent at 12:15 p.m. in Ljubljana today, according to mid-pricing data compiled by Bloomberg. The yield dropped below 6 percent in February after the European Central Bank offered lenders in Europe cheap loans.


“It looks like the rise in bond yields is due to both international and domestic factors,” said William Jackson, an emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics in London. “There is general investor risk aversion due to events in the euro zone and it seems the Slovenian authorities have revised up the recapitalization requirement for Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d., which has probably put the spotlight on domestic problems as well.”

Slovenian banks, including Nova Ljubljanska Banka, are relying on financing from the ECB as record losses and uncertainty in the European banking industry limits access to wholesale funding.

Lenders took out 2 billion euros ($2.53 billion) of ECB loans, the Slovenian central bank said June 14, while NLB borrowed 1.2 billion euros, according to its acting Chief Executive Officer Bozo Jasovic.

The debt crisis in Europe is deepening as the second vote in Greece failed to improve investors’ risk appetite and borrowing costs in Spain and Italy continued to climb.


Nova Ljubljanska, in which the government holds an indirect majority, needs 500 million euros to lift its core Tier 1 capital ratio to above 9 percent, Finance Minister Janez Sustersic said June 15. Previously, the Ljubljana-based lender sought 400 million euros.


To contact the reporter on this story: Boris Cerni in Ljubljana at [email protected]
 
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tommy271

Forumer storico
ECB's Kranjec no need for Slovenian bank aid for now

8:28 a.m. CDT, June 19, 2012





LJUBLJANA (Reuters) - European Central Bank Governing Council member Marko Kranjec did not rule out that Slovenia may have to ask for international aid to prop up its banking sector, but there was no need to do so at the moment, he said on Tuesday.

Asked whether Slovenia will have to ask for international help because of the problems of its banking sector, Kranjec said: "We do not exclude anything ... but for now this is an entirely hypothetical question."

"Conditions (in the Slovenian banking sector) are going in the bad direction, but for now I do not see a reason that Slovenia would need to ask for (international) help," said Kranjec, who is also governor of the Bank of Slovenia.

Earlier this month, Spain secured up to 100 billion euros in bailout money to recapitalize its ailing banks, which raised concern in the markets that such a step would push Europe's fourth largest economy further into debt, potentially closer towards requesting a full bailout program.

Kranjec also stressed the need for fiscal consolidation in Slovenia to bring the country's borrowing costs down.

"Yields on our (Slovenian) debt are very high but poor availability of (financial) resources is even more worrying," said Kranjec, referring to severe cuts in availability of international financial resources since the middle of 2011.

(Reporting By Marja Novak, writing by Eva Kuehnen)

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