Titoli di Stato area non Euro Obbligazioni LIBANO (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione iguanito
- Data di Inizio
fabriziof
Forumer storico
iguanito
Forumer storico
Volevo migliorare la qualità del portafoglio; a tal proposito, nel procedimento di dismissione delle ciofeche estreme ho provato a vendere elecar ma niente da fare.Nessuno le compra.....Ecco ci manca solo il Libano
fabriziof
Forumer storico
La mia era una battuta ,del Libano non so niente ,mi fa piacere sentirne parlare bene ,la mia ignoranza geopolitica fa di tutta un'erba un fascio...
iguanito
Forumer storico
Allora, cortesemente, puoi togliermi ogni residuo dubbio sulla tassazione. E' ovviamente al 26%, giusto? Grazie.
Omero
Forumer storico
Figurati, rispetto alla confusione interna ed esterna al paese i bond reggono anche troppo bene. Potente flusso di rimesse da emigrati e flussi di denaro nel sistema bancario dal molti paesi del golfo e europei.
Tra l'altro quest'anno è stato emesso molto debito (tagli da 1k) anche in vista dell'imminente incremento dei tassi di interessi sul dollaro. Vista la fase di transizione geopolitica di tutta l'area non si può escludere nulla.
Per essere chiari non consiglio di entrare.
Purtroppo come hai giustamente detto la tassazione è 26% (black list come Seychelles) che porta gli attuali rendimenti al 5% netto circa. Con la crisi siriana i prezzi sono scesi sotto la pari.
bia06
Listen other's viewpoint avoid conflicts & wars.
Isin?
Per favore,
puoi postare gli isin delle obbligazioni Libano che segui?
Sono tutte OTC?
Grazie.
Per favore,
puoi postare gli isin delle obbligazioni Libano che segui?
Sono tutte OTC?
Grazie.
bia06
Listen other's viewpoint avoid conflicts & wars.
Info vecchia ma alcune info sono interessanti.
Non ho trovato rating actions piu´ recenti.
New York, December 16, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Lebanon's government bond ratings to B2 from B1 and maintained the negative outlook.
The key drivers of today's rating action are the following:
1. The rise in the main government debt metrics.
2. Adverse spillover effects from the Syrian crisis on government finances, economic growth and political stability.
Concurrent with today's rating action Lebanon's local-currency bond and deposit ceilings are lowered to Ba2 from Ba1. The foreign currency deposit ceiling is lowered to B2 from B1 and the short term foreign currency deposit ceiling remains at NP. The foreign currency bond ceiling remains at Ba3/NP. These ceilings reflect a range of undiversifiable risks to which issuers in any jurisdiction are exposed, including economic, legal and political risks. These ceilings act as a cap on ratings that can be assigned to the foreign and local-currency obligations of entities domiciled in the country.
Lebanon's Medium Term Note Program is also downgraded to (P)B2 from (P)B1 while its short term rating is affirmed at (P)NP.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The principal driver of Moody's decision to downgrade Lebanon's sovereign rating is the rise in the country's debt burden. We estimate Lebanon's 2015 government debt to reach close to 140% of GDP, the third highest among all rated sovereigns. Government debt has risen every year since 2011, when it reached 123% of GDP. Other debt metrics, such as annual gross financing needs, interest payments as a share of government revenue and debt to revenue, indicate an even greater burden. We project government debt will reach 632% of government revenues next year, the second highest among all rated sovereigns.
The second driver of the rating action are the adverse spillover effects of the Syrian crisis. Our forecast is that current debt trends are likely to continue to deteriorate in the next two years. A combination of lower growth and ongoing political paralysis, exacerbated by the spillover effects of the Syrian crisis, led to a large increase in the fiscal deficit, in turn raising the debt burden. Lebanon's real GDP growth averaged 9.1% from 2008 to 2010 but we forecast that it will only average 2.1% in the five years to 2015. The fiscal deficit has been rising since 2011 and will likely average close to 10% of GDP in 2014 and 2015.
Lebanon has managed with a very high debt burden for many years, having reached 175% of GDP in 2006, but domestic political turmoil poses a challenge to fiscal consolidation. The country has been without a President since May 2014 due to lack of agreement among the main political groups. While the presidency lacks significant formal powers the inability to reach a consensus candidate highlights the current institutional challenges. And on November 5th the Lebanese parliament voted to extend its term and moved the next legislative election to May 2017. The election was originally due to be held on May 2013.
The negative outlook reflects our expectations that economic growth has declined sharply and there is little sign of a return to potential in the near term, and that slower economic conditions will pose additional fiscal challenges, which are likely to impede a reversal of worsening debt metrics.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN
Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of Lebanon's sovereign rating is unlikely over the medium term. However, Moody's would return the rating outlook to stable in the event that the country's debt metrics stop rising and the risk of political spill-over from Syria's conflict diminishes.
Further upward ratings movement is contingent on a significant improvement in government finances which reduces the budget deficit and lowers the government's borrowing requirements.
Moody's could downgrade Lebanon's B2 government bond rating in the event of a further deterioration of the country's main debt metrics or an intensification of domestic political turmoil.
A substantial and sustained withdrawal of bank deposits from Lebanon that threatens banks' ability to finance the government could also lead to a negative rating action.
Non ho trovato rating actions piu´ recenti.
New York, December 16, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Lebanon's government bond ratings to B2 from B1 and maintained the negative outlook.
The key drivers of today's rating action are the following:
1. The rise in the main government debt metrics.
2. Adverse spillover effects from the Syrian crisis on government finances, economic growth and political stability.
Concurrent with today's rating action Lebanon's local-currency bond and deposit ceilings are lowered to Ba2 from Ba1. The foreign currency deposit ceiling is lowered to B2 from B1 and the short term foreign currency deposit ceiling remains at NP. The foreign currency bond ceiling remains at Ba3/NP. These ceilings reflect a range of undiversifiable risks to which issuers in any jurisdiction are exposed, including economic, legal and political risks. These ceilings act as a cap on ratings that can be assigned to the foreign and local-currency obligations of entities domiciled in the country.
Lebanon's Medium Term Note Program is also downgraded to (P)B2 from (P)B1 while its short term rating is affirmed at (P)NP.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The principal driver of Moody's decision to downgrade Lebanon's sovereign rating is the rise in the country's debt burden. We estimate Lebanon's 2015 government debt to reach close to 140% of GDP, the third highest among all rated sovereigns. Government debt has risen every year since 2011, when it reached 123% of GDP. Other debt metrics, such as annual gross financing needs, interest payments as a share of government revenue and debt to revenue, indicate an even greater burden. We project government debt will reach 632% of government revenues next year, the second highest among all rated sovereigns.
The second driver of the rating action are the adverse spillover effects of the Syrian crisis. Our forecast is that current debt trends are likely to continue to deteriorate in the next two years. A combination of lower growth and ongoing political paralysis, exacerbated by the spillover effects of the Syrian crisis, led to a large increase in the fiscal deficit, in turn raising the debt burden. Lebanon's real GDP growth averaged 9.1% from 2008 to 2010 but we forecast that it will only average 2.1% in the five years to 2015. The fiscal deficit has been rising since 2011 and will likely average close to 10% of GDP in 2014 and 2015.
Lebanon has managed with a very high debt burden for many years, having reached 175% of GDP in 2006, but domestic political turmoil poses a challenge to fiscal consolidation. The country has been without a President since May 2014 due to lack of agreement among the main political groups. While the presidency lacks significant formal powers the inability to reach a consensus candidate highlights the current institutional challenges. And on November 5th the Lebanese parliament voted to extend its term and moved the next legislative election to May 2017. The election was originally due to be held on May 2013.
The negative outlook reflects our expectations that economic growth has declined sharply and there is little sign of a return to potential in the near term, and that slower economic conditions will pose additional fiscal challenges, which are likely to impede a reversal of worsening debt metrics.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN
Given the negative outlook, an upgrade of Lebanon's sovereign rating is unlikely over the medium term. However, Moody's would return the rating outlook to stable in the event that the country's debt metrics stop rising and the risk of political spill-over from Syria's conflict diminishes.
Further upward ratings movement is contingent on a significant improvement in government finances which reduces the budget deficit and lowers the government's borrowing requirements.
Moody's could downgrade Lebanon's B2 government bond rating in the event of a further deterioration of the country's main debt metrics or an intensification of domestic political turmoil.
A substantial and sustained withdrawal of bank deposits from Lebanon that threatens banks' ability to finance the government could also lead to a negative rating action.
Omero
Forumer storico
Seguo prevalentemente quelle emesse prima di quest'anno.
Le trovate quotate anche sui mercati tedeschi e acquistabili anche tramite banca fisica.
La lista quasi completa (eccetto quelli più brevi che non seguo):
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2010(18) ISIN XS0559237952 | WKN A1A3RF | Kürzel DTFXFB XS0559237952 12/11/2018 5,150%
USD Libanon, RepublikEO-Medium-Term Notes 2011(18) ISIN XS0707821467 | WKN A1GXRZ | Kürzel DTFXFR XS0707821467 28/11/2018 5,350%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2011(19) ISIN XS0707819727 | WKN A1GXRX | Kürzel DTFXFR XS0707819727 28/11/2019 5,450%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2011(19) ISIN XS0629509943 | WKN A1GRM3 | Kürzel DTFXFB XS0629509943 20/05/2019 6,000%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2010(20) ISIN XS0493540297 | WKN A1AULQ | Kürzel DTFXFB XS0493540297 09/03/2020 6,375%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2014(20) ISIN XS1052421150 | WKN A1ZGV4 | Kürzel DTFXFB XS1052421150 04/04/2020 5,800%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Med.-Term Nts 2006(21)Reg.S ISIN XS0250882478 | WKN A0GQ03 | Kürzel DTFSFR XS0250882478 12/04/2021 8,250%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2010(22) ISIN XS0559237796 | WKN A0VSSY | Kürzel DTFXFR XS0559237796 04/10/2022 6,100%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2012(23) ISIN XS0859367194 | WKN A0VLX5 | Kürzel DTFXFB XS0859367194 27/01/2023 6,000%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Med.-Term Nts 2015(24) ISIN XS1313647841 | WKN A1Z910 | Kürzel DTZXFB XS1313647841 04/11/2024 6,250%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2009(24) ISIN XS0471737444 | WKN A1AQW5 | Kürzel DTFXFR XS0471737444 03/12/2024 7,000%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Med.-Term Nts 2015(25)Reg.S ISIN XS1196417569 | WKN A1ZXP2 | Kürzel DTXXXX XS1196417569 26/02/2025 6,200%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2011(26) ISIN XS0707820659 | WKN A1GXRY | Kürzel DTFXFR XS0707820659 27/11/2026 6,600%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Medium-Term Notes 2012(27) ISIN XS0859366899 | WKN A0VLX4 | Kürzel DTFX XS0859366899 29/11/2027 6,750%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Med.-Term Nts 2015(28) ISIN XS1313675974 | WKN A1Z911 | Kürzel DTZXFB XS1313675974 03/11/2028 6,650%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Med.-Term Nts 2015(30)Reg.S ISIN XS1196419854 | WKN A1ZXPY | Kürzel DTXXXX XS1196419854 26/02/2030 7,240%
USD Libanon, RepublikDL-Med.-Term Nts 2015(35) ISIN XS1313654623 | WKN A1Z92L | Kürzel DTZXFB XS1313654623 02/11/2035 7,050%
su Francoforte hanno tagli minimi di 1.000 USD (mi sembrava di ricordare tagli più impegnativi). Io seguo prevalentemente 2021 e 2026.
Con il caos alle porte potrebbero presentarsi occasioni di ingresso, se il caos aumenta oltre i livelli di guardia c'è da aspettarsi di tutto.
Con lo scontro nell'area fra sunniti e sciti, guerre per procura fra Arabia Saudita e Iran, anche il patronato saudita sul debito garantito dai trapassati membri della famiglia saudita ad Hariri il vecchio penso sia ormai totalmente inaffidabile, potrebbe tornare in scena la vecchia potenza coloniale francese che ha sempre operato per mantenere il Libano separato dalla Siria e sotto la sua influenza. La Francia volente o nolente è tornata nel teatro.
Detto ciò, al momento credo che i rendimenti che si possono spuntare non siano da high yeald e che ci siano molti altri titoli che rendono di più e con meno rischi anche a causa della ritenuta italiana al 26%.