Nicox (COX): Initiation - Focus on sight
21/01/2021 09:46 RSF
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Edison Investment Research Limited
Nicox (COX): Initiation - Focus on sight
21-Jan-2021 / 08:46 GMT/BST
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London, UK, 21 January 2021
Nicox (COX): Initiation - Focus on sight
Nicox develops drugs for eye diseases, with lead candidate NCX-470 in
Phase III trials targeting the topical treatment of glaucoma by utilising
and expanding on an already-established dual IOP-lowering mechanistic
approach. Top-line data from Mont Blanc, the first of two Phase III
studies, are expected in H122, and we expect a 2024 launch and sales of
over €450m in 2030 in the US and major markets. Nicox is well funded
through the Mont Blanc inflection point and we derive an rNPV valuation of
€304m.
Our Nicox valuation applies a risk-adjusted net present value (nNPV) model
with a 12.5% cost of capital and includes the prospects for NCX-470,
NCX-4251, and the Vyzulta and Zerviate royalties. We obtain an rNPV of
€303.7m. After including €29.4m in end-FY20 net cash, we obtain an equity
valuation of €333.1m or €8.99/share. We model that Nicox's funds on hand
should last into H222 and that it will raise €40m between 2022 and 2024
before launching NCX-470 in 2024