Netherlandse Gasunie è la Snam rete gas olandese, solo che è controllata al 100% dallo stato.
S&P esplica il rating della società in forza del suo strettissimo legame con lo stato olandese, tale per cui il rating resta AA- sebbene il profilo di NG, valutato autonomente, giustificherebbe un rating a quota A, e addirittura la solidità del legame consentirebbe la conservazione di un rating AA- anche ove il profilo di credito di NG valutato autonomamente calasse ancora di un livello.
Circostanza non improbabile, in quanto S&P si attende un indebolimento della metrica finanziaria di NG nel medio termine quale effetto principalmente dell'abbassamento delle tariffe regolamentate sulla rete gasiera tedesca di NG.
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N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie Ratings Affirmed Despite Lower Stand-Alone Credit Profile; Outlook Stable
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- We have revised our assessment of Gasunie's stand-alone credit profile to 'A' from 'A+' due to a weakening in the company's business and financial risk profiles.
- We view the likelihood of timely and sufficient extraordinary government support as "high," resulting in a two-notch uplift to the company's stand-alone credit profile.
- We are affirming our 'AA-' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term ratings on Netherlands-based gas transport and infrastructure company N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie.
- The outlook is stable, reflecting the likelihood that the ratings on Gasunie would be affirmed even if we were to raise or lower our assessment of the company's stand-alone credit profile by one notch.
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) July 28, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it affirmed its 'AA-' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term corporate credit ratings on Netherlands-based gas transport and infrastructure company N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie following a review of the company's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) and the "high" likelihood of timely and sufficient extraordinary government support. The outlook is stable.
"The rating affirmation follows a revision of Gasunie's SACP, which we lowered to 'A' from 'A+'," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Karin Erlander.
"This primarily reflects our view that Gasunie's business and financial risk profiles have weakened. It also reflects that over the medium term, Gasunie's credit metrics are likely to fall below our expectations and requirements for the previous SACP," said Ms. Erlander.
Gasunie's excellent business risk profile reflects our view of the company's low-risk and regulated gas transmission operations and its dominant position in the Dutch natural gas market.
These strengths are partially offset by Gasunie's expansion in nonregulated activities and the unfavorable tariff regulation expected to affect the company's German gas transportation grid.
The intermediate financial risk profile continues to reflect relatively stable and predictable cash flows, but also our view that
Gasunie's credit metrics are likely to deteriorate to levels lower than we had previously expected over the 2010-2011 period. That is, we believe that Gasunie's ratio of funds from operations (FFO) to adjusted debt is likely to fall below 13%.
The decline is mainly caused by significant tariff cuts expected to be imposed by German regulation, resulting in weaker-than-expected earnings stemming from the German networks acquired in 2008.
The financial risk profile also factors in that, in our view, Gasunie's earnings generated from the Dutch networks would decline slightly over time due to efficiency requirements included in the tariffs, but that this would be offset by earnings generated by the completion of ongoing projects. These include gas storage facilities, a liquefied natural gas terminal, the expansion of the existing transportation grid, and a stake in the Nord Stream gas pipeline.
The 'AA-' ratings on Gasunie are based on the company's SACP, which we assess at 'A', plus a two-notch uplift reflecting the "high" likelihood of timely and sufficient extraordinary support from the government of the State of The Netherlands (AAA/Stable/A-1+) in the event of financial distress.
In accordance with our criteria on government-related entities (GREs), our view is based on Gasunie's:
- "Very important" role, given Gasunie's strategic importance to the government as the monopoly owner and operator of the regulated gas transmission network in The Netherlands, and
- "Strong" link with the State of The Netherlands, given that Gasunie is 100% state-owned and that privatization risk is remote. It also reflects that the state is involved in strategic decisions but that management is generally independent and makes autonomous business decisions.
The stable outlook reflects the likelihood that the ratings on Gasunie would be affirmed, in accordance with our criteria on GREs, even if we were to lower or raise our assessment of the company's SACP by one notch.
However, a downward revision of the likelihood of support from the government would likely result in a downgrade. That said, we consider that there is certain pressure on the SACP, given that the current SACP factors in a stable business risk profile and a recovery of Gasunie's credit metrics, to an FFO to debt ratio of 13%, from what we believe will be lower levels in 2010 and 2011.
The outlook also assumes no further debt-financed investments or aggressive expansion into nonregulated activities. Any further weakening of Gasunie's business or financial risk profiles would likely result in a lower SACP.
