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Forumer attivo
Per Moody's, la domanda di servizi telefonici in America Latina crescerà ancora nel 2009 e la crescita dei nuovi utenti insieme con la possibilità di ridurre il capex aiuterà le società del comparto a mantenere livelli di cash flow stabili nel 2009.

Buone nuove per quelle telecom europee presenti significativamente nell'area (Telefonica, Portugal Telecom, Telecom Italia).

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's: Latin American Telecom Outlook Stable[/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]New York, February 11, 2009 -- Moody's stable outlook for the telecom industry in Latin America is based on the view that subscriber growth, combined with capital-spending cuts, will help the industry sustain stable cash-flow levels in 2009. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Overall, demand for telecom services remains fairly strong in Latin America, says Moody's. On average, nominal revenue growth for the industry as a whole is likely to slow to about 5% this year, from about 7% in 2008. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"However, we believe that telecom companies will scale back capital spending to offset slowing revenue growth and the hit from a stronger dollar, thus protecting cash flows," says Moody's AVP-Analyst Nymia Almeida. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]According to Moody's, the demand for wireline, wireless and high-margin Internet services continues to grow in the developing markets of Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia and Chile, which still have relatively low penetration rates compared with developed regions. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]This growth, however, will vary significantly by business segment and by country, says Almeida. Companies that focus more on the mature wireline segment -- which faces intense competition primarily from wireless companies -- will be most vulnerable to slowing revenue growth. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"Despite the effect of the economic downturn on subscriber growth, we expect that companies in the region will be able to support stable credit profiles by increasing their subscriber bases and trimming capital spending," says Almeida. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In addition, governments in Latin America are committed to increasing the penetration of telecom services, which are helping to fuel economic and social development. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Overall, the expectation of timely responses to lingering capital-market weakness is key to Moody's outlook, although refinancing risk is low as most of the rated telecom companies in Latin America have manageable debt-maturity profiles and have maintained robust liquidity, with enough cash on hand to repay debt and fund operating needs for the next 12 months. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The full report, titled, "Latin American Telecom: Six-Month Update" is available at www.moodys.com. [/FONT]

:)17.02.09 12:45 - *Telefonica: Moody's alza outlook da stabile a positivo
 

Massimo Odiot

Giovane Povero
Forse ho fatto una cavolata, forse no, ma ieri ho venduto le mie ikb e i miei cct con un gain netto del 2% fatto in un mese, senza starci troppo dietro... ...E stamattina ho incrementato la mia partecipazione in TKA!! Ora sono austriaco per il 50% dei miei (pochi) risparmi... Avrò fatto bene? PMC 88,10... Tocco ferro, e di settimana in settimana valuterò la situazione... Tenendo conto del 5,4% netto che dovrei prendere comunque!! Buona giornata

Gli investimenti di TKA in Europa dell'Est potrebbero avere effetti negativi sui bonds?

Io oggi ho venduto tutte le mie obbligazioni... 3,95 lordo in 13 giorni, per uno come me è oro!! Ora resto liquido in attesa di notizie e altre eventuali occasioni!! :V
Un saluto
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Gli investimenti di TKA in Europa dell'Est potrebbero avere effetti negativi sui bonds?

Io oggi ho venduto tutte le mie obbligazioni... 3,95 lordo in 13 giorni, per uno come me è oro!! Ora resto liquido in attesa di notizie e altre eventuali occasioni!! :V
Un saluto

Sì, potrebbero ... per ora un calo dei consumi di telefonia (che lì è soprattutto mobile) si sono registrati solo in Macedonia, il più povero degli stati balcanici... però siamo solo agli inizi... :)
 

Massimo Odiot

Giovane Povero
Speriamo bene... Ieri sera leggevo su un blog finanziario che Unicredit potrebbe chiedere aiuti statali in Italia, Polonia e Austria... Allora ho pensato al 30% di TKA detenuto dal governo, e mi sono detto "forse è meglio uscire ora che sono in guadagno, in caso scendesse sono sempre in tempo a rientrare..."
Vedremo, e speriamo bene! Al massimo mi orienterò su un altro telefonico, o su uno dei bond utilities, che mi danno l'idea di essere più solidi!
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Speriamo bene... Ieri sera leggevo su un blog finanziario che Unicredit potrebbe chiedere aiuti statali in Italia, Polonia e Austria... Allora ho pensato al 30% di TKA detenuto dal governo, e mi sono detto "forse è meglio uscire ora che sono in guadagno, in caso scendesse sono sempre in tempo a rientrare..."
Vedremo, e speriamo bene! Al massimo mi orienterò su un altro telefonico, o su uno dei bond utilities, che mi danno l'idea di essere più solidi!

Un 4% su di un bond in meno di due settimane non è male.... non sono contrario alla logica del portare a casa il risultato...
 

Imark

Forumer storico
:)17.02.09 12:45 - *Telefonica: Moody's alza outlook da stabile a positivo

Il commento alla rating action... interessanti le considerazioni, qui fatte più volte, sulla connotazione difensiva del comparto telecom che lo porrebbe al riparo, ad avviso di Moody's, degli effetti più negativi della crisi economica in essere.

Si era già notato in precedenza come Telefonica - che ha vantato in anni recenti un tasso di crescita dei ricavi fra il doppio ed il triplo dei suoi peers, attorno ed oltre il 6% annuo, con un EBITDA margin ancora oggi attorno al 40%, ma a prezzo di numerose acquisizioni condotte sia in mercati maturi occidentali che in America Latina, con appesantimento del debito - avesse preso a contenere il leverage, ed un upgrade è condizionato da Moody's al raggiungimento di un livello di 2,5x.

Una buona capacità di gestire il contenimento del capex e una remunerazione non eccessiva degli azionisti completano il quadro di una società che ha saputo spingere sul pedale del debito, ma anche muovere per tempo a politiche finanziarie più conservative.

Molto interessanti ed esplicate dettagliatamente da Moody's, le prospettive di crescita ulteriore della società in America latina.

Molto validda anche la gestione della liquidità: pienamente coperte le scadenze 2009 (4,1 mld euro di debito in scadenza ed esborsi di cash coperti da 5,8 mld euro di liquidità in cassa e 9,5 mld euro di liquidità disponibile in linee di credito inutilizzate e non soggette a vincoli di impiego).

Estesa di recente la durata media del debito al di sopra dei 6 anni, Telefonica non pare avere difficoltà di sorta a rifinanziare sul mercato le scadenze debitorie.

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's affirms Telefónica's ratings at Baa1; outlook changed to positive[/FONT]
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[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Madrid, February 17, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed the long-term Baa1 ratings of Telefónica SA (Telefónica) and the ratings of all its guaranteed subsidiaries and also affirmed the Prime-2 short-term rating. At the same time, Moody's has changed the outlook on all these long-term ratings to positive from stable, except for the outlook on the national scale ratings of Telefónica de Mexico at Aaa.mx which remain stable. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"The rating affirmation and change in outlook to positive reflects Moody's expectation that, going forward, Telefónica will sustain an improved financial risk profile, in line with management's publicly stated targets," explains Carlos Winzer, a Senior Vice President in Moody's Corporate Finance Group.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"A rating upgrade is likely if the ratio of Debt to Ebitda improves sustainably in the short to medium term to below 2.5x supported by improvements in the ratio of RCF to Debt such that it is trending sustainably above 25%, fuelled by sustained strong cash flow, moderate shareholder distribution policies and conservative capex." [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]"Furthermore, Moody's recognises Telefónica's substantial investments, which have enhanced its business profile and created a footprint of operating companies that provide the group with a well-diversified and risk-balanced model, mitigating the exposure to Latin America," says Mr. Winzer. Moody's has also taken into account management's ability to execute a well-defined and concise strategy, as well as its ample experience in managing fixed line and mobile telecoms operations in an extensive geographical coverage area, including Latin American emerging markets. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Supporting the assignment of the positive outlook is the view that Telefónica´s business will not be materially impacted by the current economic recession affecting Spain and other countries within its operating footprint, as the telecoms business appears to be less cyclical than other industrial activities. Furthermore, Telefónica's diversified operations provide a degree of protection to the group in some countries that have been more affected by the economic recession. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]As an example, Moody's points to Latin America, where continued demand for telecoms services, combined with capex cuts, will help Telefónica sustain strong cash flow growth in 2009, even as the region's economic slowdown weighs on subscriber growth. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's now expects wireless subscriber growth in Latin America (which makes up around 50% of revenues there), to slow to around 8% in 2009 (2008: 12%), as consumers scale back their telecoms budgets and as wireless penetration rates approach saturation. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Behind the expected growth are the relatively low penetration rates in the region and the need for reliable phone service, demand for which is relatively more resistant to swings in the economy. Wireline penetration in the region is still low at around 20%, and wireless penetration could surpass 90% in 2010 (from an average of about 75% today). [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Although growth opportunities could be limited by the lower purchasing power in the region compared with that of developed countries, Moody's believes that there is still ample room for growth, mainly in higher-margin wireless services and residential wireline Internet access. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Still, the economic slowdown in Latin America in the year ahead will weigh on subscriber growth and increase competition, possibly hurting average revenue per user across the region. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Economists at Moody's Global Financial Risk Unit expect that growth in Latin America GDP will be between 2.0% and 3.5% through 2010, down from previous expectations of 3.5% to 4.5%. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's nevertheless expects intense competition and tougher market conditions, due to an economic slowdown in Telefónica's markets, to continue to put pressure on revenues. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]However, Moody's believes Telefónica should be able to sustain revenue growth through: (i) broadband-related fixed and mobile products and services in Spain and other European countries; and (ii) still strong growth prospects in Latin America, including further mobile penetration, usage and data potential, combined with ARPU increases, traffic bundles and further fixed access expansion. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Telefónica should continue to efficiently manage its cost base to preserve its margin at around 40%, which, along with sustained capex (EUR8.6 billion per year guidance), will fuel strong cash flow levels. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]In terms of liquidity, Moody's recognises that Telefónica has performed well over the past 18 months, managing its debt maturity profile through refinancing, including the extension of its average debt maturity to around six years. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Telefónica's liquidity profile is more than sufficient to cover its EUR4.1billion of debt maturities and other cash demands in 2009, including capex and dividend payments. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]As of September 2008, Telefónica had around EUR5.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents. External liquidity sources are robust, with EUR9.5billion in unused committed credit lines. The credit lines are not subject to material adverse change clauses or financial covenants. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's also notes that there is no significant structural subordination of creditors at the subsidiary level, which accounts for less than 25% of total group net debt. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The last rating action on Telefónica was implemented on 3 May 2007, when Moody's changed the outlook on Telefónica's ratings to stable from negative.[/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Headquartered in Madrid, Spain, Telefónica S.A. is the world's third-largest telecommunications company by access lines and one of the world's leading telecommunications carriers, with nearly 252 million customers around the world. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Telefónica is the leading integrated telecommunications provider in Spain, delivering a full range of services and products, including telephony, data exchange, interactive content and information, and communications technology solutions. [/FONT]
 

steffy1

Nuovo forumer
mi togliete una curiosita'? perche' mio zio si compra le telecom 2033 o roba cosi' e finmeccanica 2055 e io con fineco nemmeno le vedo? su 24 ore ho visto isin ma fineco non le trova...
 

Imark

Forumer storico
mi togliete una curiosita'? perche' mio zio si compra le telecom 2033 o roba cosi' e finmeccanica 2055 e io con fineco nemmeno le vedo? su 24 ore ho visto isin ma fineco non le trova...

Veramente la 2033 è negoziata sull'EuroTlx ... con i TOL con i quali operi sull'EuroTlx, la puoi comprare...
 

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