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Forumer storico
Posto qui questo commento di Fitch su KPN, che viene confermata in rating ed outlook... nonostante qualche rischio potenziale enfatizzato da Fitch per il futuro (ed in particolare la sfida lanciata dalle cable companies olandese sul tema delle offerte triple play), il quadro che emerge ad oggi è quello di una tenuta eccellente rispetto alla crisi.
A parte una leggera flessione dell'EBITDA (con la società che ha comunque confermato i target di fine 2009), tutto il resto del quadro (dal fatturato al leverage, dalla liquidità disponibile all'ARPU generato dalla banda larga) resta negli ambiti targettizzati dal management.
Non mentono i prezzi dei bond.
Fitch Affirms KPN at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
17 Jul 2009 6:58 AM (EDT) Fitch Ratings-London-17 July 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Netherlands-based Royal KPN N.V.'s (KPN) Long-term Issuer Default rating (IDR) at 'BBB+' with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed KPN's senior unsecured rating at 'BBB+'
The ratings reflect KPN's leading positions in its domestic market for fixed and mobile telecoms, complemented by smaller, although growing, mobile assets in Germany and Belgium. The ratings are, however, constrained by the company's generous shareholder distribution policy, its declining fixed-line business and competition from cable
"Despite its leading incumbent status in the Netherlands KPN faces competition from cable operators who are gaining scale in the country's triple-play arena, says Apostolos Bantis, an Associate Director at Fitch's TMT Group in London. In Fitch's view strategic steps such as potentially participating in mobile consolidation in neighbouring markets or deploying a nationwide fibre-optic network to offset competition from cable, would defend KPN's longer-term growth prospects".
Any sizable debt-funded acquisitions or continued aggressive shareholder distributions that will result in net leverage in excess of 2.5x could have negative implications for the ratings. However, Fitch would expect management to review its generous shareholder policy and remain committed to its stated net leverage targeted range of 2.0x to 2.5x. In addition significant underperformance in any of the company's divisions could also put pressure on the ratings.
KPN's Dutch telecom operations continued to demonstrate resilient performance, reporting a modest EBITDA inflection. The rate of fixed-line losses has now moderated materially while the Dutch incumbent maintains a leading market share in the broadband market reporting stable ARPUs.
However, the weak economic environment is starting to have a more pronounced effect on KPN's ICT business, which Fitch expects to continue to struggle with thin margins and to remain under pressure in the medium term. The ICT segment accounts for a small portion of KPN's EBITDA, minimizing the overall impact on group profitability.
Transitioning into an all-IP network remains central to KPN's growth strategy as it seeks to compensate for fixed-line losses and migrate from traditional into IP-based services. KPN has already started to deploy fibre to the home (FttH) through a joint venture with Reggefiber in certain Dutch cities but has yet to clarify whether it will undertake a full-scale fibre-optic network rollout. In Fitch's view the deployment of a widespread fibre network is important for KPN to safeguard its competitive position from cable operators.
Liquidity remains sufficient, supported by EUR1.95bn in cash (as of end-Q109), EUR1.5bn of available credit lines and a well-spread maturity schedule.
KPN continues to demonstrate a healthy cash flow profile. Management guided for 2009 pre-dividend free cash flow of EUR2.4bn, including a EUR120m pension contribution and a EUR150m reversal in working capital.
At end-Q109 net debt stood at EUR11.7bn, resulting in net debt/EBITDA of 2.3x which is in line with the targeted range
A parte una leggera flessione dell'EBITDA (con la società che ha comunque confermato i target di fine 2009), tutto il resto del quadro (dal fatturato al leverage, dalla liquidità disponibile all'ARPU generato dalla banda larga) resta negli ambiti targettizzati dal management.
Non mentono i prezzi dei bond.
Fitch Affirms KPN at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
17 Jul 2009 6:58 AM (EDT) Fitch Ratings-London-17 July 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Netherlands-based Royal KPN N.V.'s (KPN) Long-term Issuer Default rating (IDR) at 'BBB+' with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed KPN's senior unsecured rating at 'BBB+'
The ratings reflect KPN's leading positions in its domestic market for fixed and mobile telecoms, complemented by smaller, although growing, mobile assets in Germany and Belgium. The ratings are, however, constrained by the company's generous shareholder distribution policy, its declining fixed-line business and competition from cable
"Despite its leading incumbent status in the Netherlands KPN faces competition from cable operators who are gaining scale in the country's triple-play arena, says Apostolos Bantis, an Associate Director at Fitch's TMT Group in London. In Fitch's view strategic steps such as potentially participating in mobile consolidation in neighbouring markets or deploying a nationwide fibre-optic network to offset competition from cable, would defend KPN's longer-term growth prospects".
Any sizable debt-funded acquisitions or continued aggressive shareholder distributions that will result in net leverage in excess of 2.5x could have negative implications for the ratings. However, Fitch would expect management to review its generous shareholder policy and remain committed to its stated net leverage targeted range of 2.0x to 2.5x. In addition significant underperformance in any of the company's divisions could also put pressure on the ratings.
KPN's Dutch telecom operations continued to demonstrate resilient performance, reporting a modest EBITDA inflection. The rate of fixed-line losses has now moderated materially while the Dutch incumbent maintains a leading market share in the broadband market reporting stable ARPUs.
However, the weak economic environment is starting to have a more pronounced effect on KPN's ICT business, which Fitch expects to continue to struggle with thin margins and to remain under pressure in the medium term. The ICT segment accounts for a small portion of KPN's EBITDA, minimizing the overall impact on group profitability.
Transitioning into an all-IP network remains central to KPN's growth strategy as it seeks to compensate for fixed-line losses and migrate from traditional into IP-based services. KPN has already started to deploy fibre to the home (FttH) through a joint venture with Reggefiber in certain Dutch cities but has yet to clarify whether it will undertake a full-scale fibre-optic network rollout. In Fitch's view the deployment of a widespread fibre network is important for KPN to safeguard its competitive position from cable operators.
Liquidity remains sufficient, supported by EUR1.95bn in cash (as of end-Q109), EUR1.5bn of available credit lines and a well-spread maturity schedule.
KPN continues to demonstrate a healthy cash flow profile. Management guided for 2009 pre-dividend free cash flow of EUR2.4bn, including a EUR120m pension contribution and a EUR150m reversal in working capital.
At end-Q109 net debt stood at EUR11.7bn, resulting in net debt/EBITDA of 2.3x which is in line with the targeted range
