Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa (1 Viewer)

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
2 + 4/ 01/2008 Post Mark e altri

Torino41
La Chimica è un settore molto ciclico, che alterna periodi molto positivi a periodi molto negativi. Nei periodi buoni tutte le società chimiche fanno soldi, le migliori tanti, le altre abbastanza da credere di aver risolto i loro problemi. (La chimica italiana ha trovato negli ultimi 30 anni molti finti risanatori) Nei periodi cattivi le società migliori rimangono in nero anche se di poco, mentre le altre sprofondano nel rosso.
Le dichiarazioni di Squinzi non mi sorprendono, perchè il 3Q 2007 delle società petrolifere è stato peggiore di quanto previsto e molte società hanno annullato o rinviato gli investimenti previsti in nuove capacità, in particolare negli Stati Uniti. Fatto questo che preannuncia o almeno ipotizza periodi non facili.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt...57298420070906

Per quanto riguarda INEOS, non sono in grado di giudicare la società nel suo insieme, ma per quanto riguarda la parte petrolifera, (raffineria di Laverà, in Francia e di Grangemouth in Gran Bretagna, acquistate dalla BP) posso dire che presentano l'indubbio vantaggio di essere integrate con la petrochimica, ma che necessiteranno di ingenti investimenti e quindi andranno ad aggravare il problema principale di INEOS e cioè la sua struttura finanziaria.
La chimica europea è piena di esempi di buone medie società che si sono espanse in periodi positivi, ma che non hanno saputo sopravvivere per motivi finanziari ai periodi di vacche magre


Originalmente inviato da i98mark
L'indebitamento è pesante, il fatturato ha registrato una forte flessione, l'EBITDA si è invece tenuto su livelli elevati... aspetto di poter leggere i dati dell'ultima trimestrale sul report di Jyske (non li ho per ora trovati altrove), ma suppongo che stiano procedendo, dopo una lunghissima campagna acquisti, a porre in essere quelle ristrutturazioni che dovrebbero consentirgli di elevare il margine operativo.

In negativo due elementi: 1) l'andamento del mercato dell'HY, sul quale le prospettive di andamento negativo eccedono, allo stato, quelle di un miglioramento delle condizioni; 2) l'andamento del settore della petrolchimica europea in generale, sul quale ti rimetto a quanto scritto nelle pagine precedenti del 3D, ed in particolare al report di S&P postato alcune settimane fa.

In positivo il fatto che Ineos sia attualmente la terza azienda chimica mondiale per fatturato, e fra le prime aziende manifatturiere inglesi, se non addirittura la prima.

Sul newsflow, una forte incidenza avranno anche le decisioni degli organismi antitrust della UE su alcune acquisizioni recenti, decisioni sospese fino al prossimo febbraio 2008, riguardanti l'acquiszione per tramite delle stesse di una posizione dominante su alcuni mercati.

Uno degli obiettivi di Ineos nella sua campagna acquisizioni era infatti quello di conseguire posizioni abbastanza forti da poterne rafforzare la capacità di pricing su certi mercati, oltre che quella di ottenere negli stessi sinergie attraverso l'abbattimento dei costi.

Se tuttavia la UE dovesse ritenere che per questa via si è ecceduto, determinando concentrazioni di mercato contrarie alle normative antitrust, allor la strategia di Ineos sarebbe almeno per certi versi vanificata...

EU sets new antitrust probe deadline for Ineos bid for Norsk Hydro's polymers unit
The Associated PressPublished: November 7, 2007

BRUSSELS, Belgium: European Union antitrust regulators on Wednesday set a Feb. 18 deadline to decide whether to clear Ineos Enterprises Ltd.'s €670 million (US$905 million) bid for a polymers unit of Norwegian power company Norsk Hydro SA.

The European Commission had to freeze its review of the deal in late October as the companies failed to provide requested information, but the data required has now been given, the EU executive said.

The EU opened an in-depth investigation in September saying the deal could give the British chemicals group a stranglehold over the supply of PVC to the plastics industry.

Ineos agreed in May to buy Kerling ASA — the polymers unit of Norsk Hydro — shortly after it snapped up another Norwegian petrochemical company, Borealis Group.

The EU approved that deal in August, but said it had "serious doubts" about the Kerling purchase.

Buying the unit would give Ineos such a strong position in several EU countries — particularly Britain, Norway and Sweden — that it would be able to prevent other players from gaining market share or stop it hiking prices for suspension polyvinyl chloride, or S PVC, regulators have said.

S PVC is mainly used to make plastic PVC tubes, window frames and PVC films.

Notizie di una serie di verifiche "a sorpresa" condotte dagli organismi UE negli stabilimenti di Ineos e di Kerling deprimono pesantemente i corsi del bond della prima società

Ineos / Kerling: EU looks for clues of merger rule violations


European Commission competition authorities have carried out unannounced raids on PVC production sites in the UK belonging to Kerling (Oslo / Norway; www.hydropolymers.com) and Ineos Vinyls (Lyndhurst / UK; www.ineosvinyls.com), searching for clues that rules banning pre-merger exchange of information may have been violated.

The Commisson evidently has strong reservations about allowing Ineos to take over the former Hydro Polymers. It has repeatedly postponed a decision on the proposed transaction and now is not due to complete its review until 18 February 2008.

European Commission competition authorities have carried out unannounced raids on PVC production sites in the UK belonging to Kerling (Oslo / Norway; www.hydropolymers.com) and Ineos Vinyls (Lyndhurst / UK; www.ineosvinyls.com), searching for clues that rules banning pre-merger exchange of information may have been violated.

The Commisson evidently has strong reservations about allowing Ineos to take over the former Hydro Polymers. It has repeatedly postponed a decision on the proposed transaction and now is not due to complete its review until 18 February 2008.

© Plastics Information Europe, Bad Homburg

EUS: Segnala che:

... Mah, sarà veramente questo il motivo? Oppure il grosso indebitamento unito al fatto che molti fondi stanno liquidando per fare cassa? Ineos è presente in molti fondi ed è un titolo molto liquido

MARK:

Secondo me, sia quel motivo, sia la circostanza della crisi della petrolchimica preventivata da S&P (e già in essere negli USA... noi in Europa siamo parzialmente protetti dal cambio: Andò cosi':):))...

In poco più di un mese, Ineos è scesa dal picco di rimbalzo toccato sopra quota 95 ai corsi attuali... sono quasi 15 punti pct... ha underperformato pesantemente l'andamento di altri bond HY di analoghe caratteristiche...

Nè si vede ragione per cui i fondi dovrebbero liquidare giusto questi bond per fare cassa e non altri
 

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
3 Trim Q4/2007 CIBA: 18/02/2008 Mark + 13/3/2008 Mark

Arrivata la trimestrale Q4/2007 di Ciba... Poche le buone notizie: la società riesce a fare crescere marginalmente il valore del fatturato y-o-y ed è riuscita a conseguire maggiori risparmi del previsto dal suo programma di taglio dei costi, indispensabile per salvaguardare il margine operativo in un contesto molto competitivo, in cui la crescita dei corsi del petrolio ha innalzato i costi del 3%, ma Ciba è riuscita a ritornare alla clientela solo un terzo dell'incremento in termini di maggiori prezzi praticati (saliti dell'1%).

Anche per il 2008 Ciba prevede un anno difficile, ma va sottolineato come i suoi concorrenti, pur operando in analogo contesto, abbiano performato molto meglio nel corso del 2007.

Il forecast per il 2008 parla di miglioramenti ancora limitati, con il margine operativo in salita dall'8,5% al 9% per effetto di tagli ai costi.

Ciba Quarterly Net Beats Estimates After Cutting Jobs (Update2)

By Antonio Ligi and Stefanie Haxel

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Ciba Specialty Chemicals AG, the world's largest maker of colors for plastics, reported fourth- quarter profit that beat estimates after cutting 1,100 jobs.

Net income totaled 84 million Swiss francs ($76 million), compared with a 67 million-franc estimate from a Bloomberg survey of analysts. The result was unchanged from a year earlier. Sales rose 2 percent to 1.58 billion francs, the Basel-based company said in a statement.

The Swiss company beat its savings target for last year, reducing costs by 95 million francs. It's cutting a total 2,500 jobs to lower expenses by as much as 500 million francs by 2009. Ciba raised selling prices by 1 percent for its oil- derived chemicals while raw-material costs rose 3 percent, Chief Executive Officer Brendan Cummins said on a call. Crude oil prices gained by more than one-half last year.

``Ciba hasn't reached the end of the tunnel yet,'' said Nina Baiker, a Zurich-based analyst at Zuercher Kantonalbank with an ``underweight'' rating on Ciba. ``They are operating in a very demanding environment and are battling on all fronts, with commodity prices, market consolidation and weaker demand.''

Ciba, the second worst-performing stock in the Swiss Leader Index in the past year, climbed 5.2 percent, or 2.22 francs, to 44.98 francs in Zurich trading and traded at closed little changed at 42.64 francs. It's fallen 18 percent this year, giving the company a market value of 3 billion francs.

`Demanding' Year Ahead

``2008 will be another demanding year for the specialty chemicals sector, as the outlook for the economy is uncertain and raw materials costs are expected to remain high,'' said Cummins, who took over as CEO on Jan. 1. Raw-material costs will increase about 2 percent in 2008.

The Swiss company's fourth-quarter result contrasts with U.S. peers. Profit at Celanese Corp., the world's largest producer of acetyls used in plastics and textiles, more than doubled, driven by Asian demand. Earnings at Dow Chemical Co. beat analysts' estimates, buoyed by price increases for plastics and rising demand in Europe.

Ciba sells a wide range of products, from the pigment ``Ferrari red'' used on cars to anti-static additives and paper treatment chemicals. It's organized along three divisions: Plastic Additives, Coating Effects, and Water and Paper Treatment. Revenue is evenly split between Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific.

Margins to Widen

Cummins forecast margins will widen this year to 9 percent from 8.5 percent as Ciba benefits from its cost-cutting program. Sales growth, excluding currency effects, will advance in line with global economies, and operating profit is set to climb 10 percent. Ciba doesn't rule out future disposals though it expects to remain independent, the CEO said.

``It's positive that it got new management,'' said Markus Mayer, a Munich-based analyst at Unicredit with a ``sell'' rating on the stock. ``We'll have to see if the management board can push through the necessary restructuring measures.''

The company was formed in 1997 from the specialty chemical operations of the former Ciba-Geigy Ltd. after that company merged with Sandoz Ltd. to form Swiss drugmaker Novartis AG.

Higher raw-material costs and a move by global chemical companies to diversify to counter cyclical demand for basic products has spurred speculation that smaller specialty chemical makers may merge or be acquired.

The latest deal in the industry involved Akzo Nobel NV's 8 billion-pound ($15.9 billion) acquisition of U.K.'s Imperial Chemical Industries Plc, which anchored the Dutch company's position as the world's No. 1 paint maker. Ciba was mentioned as a possible target for Dow by Citigroup analyst P.J. Juvekar in a December report.

``They always presume that one and one will give two and a half, I don't think that's necessarily the case,'' Cummins said when asked at a media conference in Basel what he would do if Ciba was approached for a merger. ``In the past, these kinds of consolidations have not proven to be very value-adding.''

Reazioni S&P a CIBA

La performance di Ciba non è piaciuta a S&P, che ha rivisto a negativo l'outlook sul rating di lungo termine BBB, outlook che era precedentemente stabile.

L'outlook negativo riflette la preoccupazione che il rallentamento del ciclo economico possa incidere sui miglioramenti in termini di profittevolezza e crescita del cash flow richiesti per rafforzare i ratio patrimoniali a tutela del rating.

S&P rileva la debolezza della crescita del fatturato nel 2007, i risultati al di sotto degli obiettivi conseguiti dal piano di taglio dei costi nello scorso anno (ndr con l'incremento dell'EBIT di 0,75% anziché dell'1% pianificato), la crescita dei costi delle materie prime e le difficoltà a passare gli incrementi dei costi alla clientela.

In ultima analisi, Ciba è ai margini del rating BBB e dovrà implementare il proprio piano di tagli ai costi per ridurre il rapporto debito/EBITDA nonché migliorare il rapporto fra cash flow e debito.

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 12, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it revised its outlook on Switzerland-based specialty
chemicals manufacturer Ciba Specialty Chemicals Holding Inc. (Ciba) and
related entities to negative from stable. As a result, we lowered the
short-term corporate credit rating to 'A-3' from 'A-2'. The 'BBB' long-term
corporate credit rating was affirmed.

"This reflects the increased risk that softening economic growth could
hinder the improvement in profitability and cash flow generation needed to
restore Ciba's currently weak credit protection ratios for the rating," said
Standard & Poor's credit analyst Tobias Mock.

Ciba has not benefited from strong economic growth over the past four
years, growing at only 2% in 2007, below world GDP growth levels. Its
restructuring programs to improve profitability are not meeting the company's
initial targets to improve EBIT margins by one percentage point per year.
Ciba's profitability has also continued to suffer from its struggling
paper-chemicals business, the company's failure to pass on higher raw-material costs to customers, and intense competition across its product portfolio.

Although the company seems to have achieved the turnaround in paper chemicals it is far from earning an adequate return on capital.

Ciba's 2007 results showed a 2% increase in revenues in local currencies
and a 4% increase in operating profits. Free cash flow generation benefited
from a property sale, but would otherwise have remained relatively flat
compared with 2006. Ciba's cash flow metrics remained relatively stable, but
are still too weak for the rating, with funds from operations (FFO) to debt of
about 28%, and debt to EBITDA of 3.1x on Dec. 31, 2007.

"The negative outlook reflects the risk that, due to weaker economic
growth, Ciba could fail to improve its cash flow generation and restore its
currently weak balance sheet in line with the requirements for the rating,"
said Mr. Mock. For the 'BBB' rating, we expect Ciba to post FFO to debt of
30%-35% and debt to EBITDA of less than 2.5x.
Ed il 13 marzo 2008 Mark:

Ciba conferma l'outlook per quest'anno, all'insegna di un incremento del 10% nell'utile operativo al netto di poste straordinarie, nonostante il calo del USD.

Con questi chiari di luna sul mercato dei corporate bonds, non fre.ga niente a nessuno...
wink.gif


(AFX UK Focus) 2008-03-12 07:15 GMT:
Ciba CFO says weak US dollar will not affect FY guidance

ZURICH (Thomson Financial) - Ciba Speciality Chemicals sees its business this year weathering the impact of the US dollar's current weakness and will not change its full-year outlook, which currently sees a 10 pct gain in operating profit before one-time costs, according to an interview in Finanz und Wirtschaft.

"We do not see a reason to change our guidance due to volatility in foreign exchange markets," chief financial officer Juerg Fedier told the newspaper.

More than one third of Ciba's sales are posted in US dollars, but part of production and procurement of raw materials is in dollars as well, he said.

Fedier also said the company has seen a slowdown in the automotive and construction industries in the US as a result of the sub-prime mortgage loan crisis, and expects the business environment in the country to further weaken.

The company will continue to raise some prices this year to offset the impact of rising raw material prices. [email protected] mas/rfw

COPYRIGHT

Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including
 

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
18/2/2008 News su Ineos

Originalmente inviato da i98mark
Notizie di una serie di verifiche "a sorpresa" condotte dagli organismi UE negli stabilimenti di Ineos e di Kerling deprimono pesantemente i corsi del bond della prima società

Ineos / Kerling: EU looks for clues of merger rule violations


European Commission competition authorities have carried out unannounced raids on PVC production sites in the UK belonging to Kerling (Oslo / Norway; www.hydropolymers.com) and Ineos Vinyls (Lyndhurst / UK; www.ineosvinyls.com), searching for clues that rules banning pre-merger exchange of information may have been violated.

The Commisson evidently has strong reservations about allowing Ineos to take over the former Hydro Polymers. It has repeatedly postponed a decision on the proposed transaction and now is not due to complete its review until 18 February 2008.

European Commission competition authorities have carried out unannounced raids on PVC production sites in the UK belonging to Kerling (Oslo / Norway; www.hydropolymers.com) and Ineos Vinyls (Lyndhurst / UK; www.ineosvinyls.com), searching for clues that rules banning pre-merger exchange of information may have been violated.

The Commisson evidently has strong reservations about allowing Ineos to take over the former Hydro Polymers. It has repeatedly postponed a decision on the proposed transaction and now is not due to complete its review until 18 February 2008.

© Plastics Information Europe, Bad Homburg

Alla fine, ed a sorpresa, la EU ha approvato l'accordo fra Ineos e Hydro Polymers, ritenendo che il contesto competitivo europeo per il mercato del PVC non risulta alterato in UK, Norvegia e Svezia per effetto dell'accordo, giacché nell'area nord occidentale europea, che comprende questi paesi, vi sono fonti adeguate di approvvigionamento di PVC tali da impedire il formarsi di posizioni monopolistiche nei 3 paesi per effetto dell'accordo.

Sebbene l'accordo sia positivo in termini di pricing power per Ineos, il momento dell'HY non ha giovato in alcuna misura ai corsi del bond, che ha guadagnato su Stoccarda 10 punti pct alla notizia della decisione (passando in ask da 72 a 81,35 e chiudendo un contratto a quota 81) per poi tornare il giorno stesso ai prezzi di partenza.

Ineos buy of Norsk Hydro's Kerling cleared by EU
01.30.08, 5:00 AM ET

BRUSSELS (Thomson Financial) - The European Commission said it has cleared the proposed 5.5 bln nkr acquisition by the UK's Ineos of Norsk Hydro ASA's Kerling unit.

Both companies are active, inter alia, in the production of PVC. After an in-depth investigation, the Commission concluded that the proposed operation would not significantly impede effective competition in the European Economic Area (EEA) or in a substantial part of it.

The investigation was suspended in September last year whilst the commission waited for the companies to provide information.

During the in-depth investigation, the Commission said it carefully examined markets in the UK, Norway and Sweden, and concluded that their geographical dimension is wider than national and comprises at least North Western Europe.

The Commission said it's investigation showed commodity PVC producers located in continental North Western Europe exert sufficient competitive pressure in the UK, Norway and Sweden and constitute a credible alternative source of supply for the customers in these areas
 

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
6/05/2008 Mark: Trim CIBA

E' arrivata la trimestrale di Ciba ed è stata una delusione, non solo per i risultati, cmq poco brillanti, ma soprattutto per il comportamento del management, che ancora poche settimane fa aveva confermato il target di una crescita dell'utile operativo pari al 10% nel 2008 y-o-y

A trimestrale diffusa, l'outlook 2008 è stato rivisto al ribasso...
mad.gif


La situazione ha penalizzato più l'equity che non il bond, che scontava già molto in termini di criticità del business aziendale.

E' vero che Ciba si trova schiacciata in una morsa: da un lato l'andamento del prezzo dell'oil ha spinto al rialzo i corsi delle materie prime di cui si serve, in crescita del 4,5% nel trimestre, dall'altro la debolezza dei mercati di sbocco dei suoi prodotti ha determinato un calo dei prezzi di vendita dell'1%, necessario per trattenere la clientela.

Gli analisti sentiti da Bloomberg ne desumono correttamente (una volta tanto) una debolezza in termini di pricing power. Aggiungo di mio che, ove tale situazione dovesse prottrarsi, si riaprirebbe di necessità il dossier dell'acquisizione di Ciba (leader mondiale nel suo comparto della chimica delle specialità, quello della produzione di coloranti) da parte di qualche maggiore operatore della chimica.

A fronte della difficile situazione, Ciba ha previsto un taglio ulteriore di 2.500 posti di lavoro così da compensare l'incremento dei costi di produzione e tentare di salvaguardare i margini operativi...

Ciba Drops as Profit Misses Estimates, Target Lowered (Update3)

By Antonio Ligi

April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Ciba Specialty Chemicals AG, the world's largest maker of colors for plastics, had a record drop in Zurich trading after first-quarter profit missed analyst estimates and the Swiss company lowered its annual target.

Ciba plunged as much as 15 percent, the biggest decline since listing in 1997. Net income at the Basel-based company declined 51 percent to 37 million francs ($36 million). Seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted profit of 60 million francs.

The maker of ``Ferrari red'' car-paint pigment said markets are more challenging than expected, led by a slowdown in North America and Europe. Operating profit is now predicted to gain by 5 percent, half the pace previously forecast, because of rising raw- material costs and lower selling prices, needed to retain customers, Chief Executive Officer Brendan Cummins said on a call.

``These results are very disappointing,'' said Martin Schreiber, an analyst at Zuercher Kantonalbank. ``Ciba is stuck in the middle. From below there is pressure from rising raw material costs and from above difficult customers. Ciba doesn't have pricing power.''

The chemicals supplier, cut to ``sell'' from ``neutral'' by UBS today, closed down 3.1 francs, or 8.6 percent, to 33.56 francs. Rival Clariant AG, the world's biggest maker of chemicals used in printing ink, dropped 3.8 percent. The Swiss company reports quarterly results tomorrow.

Pricing Battle

Ciba is struggling to pass on higher costs for benzene, ethylene and other raw materials, which gained 4.5 percent in the quarter. By contrast, selling prices were lowered 1 percent overall.

Cummins plans to cut 2,500 jobs to lower expenses by as much as 500 million francs by 2009 to compensate for cost inflation.

``Some of the markets are clearly showing signs of weakening,'' the CEO said. ``2008 is far more challenging than previously expected, so we have decided to revise our guidance for the full year.''

The slowdown is particularly apparent in North America and in Europe, while Asia and the Middle East are proving to be more resilient, he said.

The Swiss chemical maker sells a wide range of products, including anti-static additives and paper treatment chemicals. It's organized along three divisions: Plastic Additives, Coating Effects, and Water and Paper Treatment. Revenue is evenly split between Europe, the Americas and the Asia-Pacific region.

``This profit miss and reversal in guidance will raise more questions over Ciba's management and outlook as trading conditions continue to become more challenging,'' Citigroup analyst Andrew Benson said in a research note.

Sales fell across all businesses, with the decline in Europe mainly due to a slowdown in paper and ink pigments orders. Temporary factory shutdowns also hurt profitability.

Ciba was formed in 1997 from the specialty chemical operations of the former Ciba-Geigy Ltd. after that company merged with Sandoz Ltd. to form Swiss drugmaker Novartis AG.
 

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
1305/2008: Fornitori arrabbiati con Ineos per i pagamenti

Suppliers rage as Ineos delays paying bills


Hugh Hayes: unhappy with changes

« Previous « PreviousNext » Next »View GalleryADVERTISEMENTPublished Date: 11 May 2008
By Terry Murden
Small firms fear Grangemouth owner's decision will push them to brink as terms are extended.
OIL refinery firm Ineos is back in the firing line over a decision to delay paying hundreds of suppliers, including some who fear it will push them close to the brink.

Ineos, which was hit by a two-day strike last month in a dispute over its final salary pension scheme, confirmed that it was introducing the change to its payment terms and was in discussions with suppliers.

But the owner of one firm, which is owed almost £2m, said a letter came out of the blue to say payment would be delayed from last week to early July.

Some claim that contracts have been pared back and the number of staff they now employ at the site have been reduced since the dispute ended and that the real reason for the change in payment terms is to replenish Ineos's battered cash balance.

"We are getting permits to work for a few days at a time when we would normally expect to work on a non-stop basis," said Hugh Hayes, executive chairman at engineering services firm Motherwell Bridge, which will now have to wait an extra nine weeks for payment.

"I am not particularly comfortable with that and we will be talking to Ineos about it."

Another supplier accused Ineos of "taking a cavalier attitude with the suppliers who supported the firm during the dispute".

It is understood that the decision to change payment terms from 30 days to 60 was taken by local management, though it is a system that prevails in other parts of the group. A spokesman said the change was not due directly to the effects of the recent strike.

The firm, which runs Scotland's only crude oil refinery, lost millions of pounds because of the stoppage by 1,200 members of the Unite union and by having to run at below capacity for several days afterwards. The strike threatened to cripple the Scottish economy and prompted Government intervention.

Ineos has since withdrawn the planned changes to the pension scheme, which it said it needed to introduce to help finance a £750m investment in the site.

Industry experts claim the strike was the UK's costliest ever dispute, with lost output and losses to the other firms and the Treasury contributing to a £600m total bill.

"We are reducing costs and removing complexity from the business," said the spokesman. "Grangemouth is advising suppliers of the change of payment terms. It is a commercial decision.

"Some are okay about this and we are in discussion with the others. Where there is significant hardship we are happy to discuss it with them. We are trying to be sensible about this. All businesses have to be cost competitive. It is done for no other reason than that."
 

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
S&P conferma il rating B su Cognis, Mark

S&P conferma il rating B su Cognis (i cui bond so essere in portafoglio per alcuni di voi) con outlook stabile ...

Il profilo di rischio finanziario continua ad essere elevato, espresso da livelli di liquidità piuttosto deboli (FFO/debt, ossia rapporto fra liquidità generata dalla operatività e debito che rimane stabile a quota 5%) e un leverage elevato (debt/EBITDA ossia rapporto fra debito e margine operativo lordo pari a 8,1% e debt/capital ratio superiore al 100%).

In positivo la circostanza per cui il debito è stato rifinanziato a maggio 2007 (appena prima della crisi) e non ci sono scadenze significative per il ripagamento prima del 2013.

Soddisfacente il profilo dell'attività di business, che vede Cognis leader di mercato nel segmento delle specialità chimiche basate su prodotti naturali.

In particolare il 51% delle produzioni di Cognis ha come materia prima prodotti naturali anziché derivati dal petrolio (il che la ha finora messa al riparo dalla crescita dei costi generata dalla salita dei prezzi dell'oil), sebbene il recente salire dei prezzi di alcune commodity agricole (fra cui l'olio di palma) stia incidendo su tale quadro.

Sempre in positivo il fatto che i mercati di sbocco delle specialità chimiche prodotte da Cognis è quello delle industrie dei prodotti per l'igienee personale e della casa, ad andamento aciclico (a differenza dei mercati di sbocco di altri produttori di chemical specialities).

La stabilità dell'outlook nasce dalla previsione di S&P di una buona capacità di Cognis di trasferire a valle della filiera produttiva gli incrementi dei costi delle materie prime che dovesse sopportare e tiene conto di una capacità decisamente modesta di riduzione del debito nei prossimi anni.

Germany-Based Cognis GmbH 'B' Rating Affirmed; Outlook Stable

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) May 29, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it affirmed its 'B' long-term corporate credit rating on
Germany-based specialty chemicals and intermediate manufacturer Cognis GmbH. The outlook is stable.

"The ratings reflect the group's high financial debt, following a leveraged buyout in 2001 and subsequent debt-financed dividend payouts to shareholders," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Tobias Mock. "These
factors are mitigated by a satisfactory business risk profile."

Cognis' cash flow protection ratios remain weak, with funds from operations (FFO) to debt of about 5% at year-end 2007 and debt to EBITDA of 8.1x. The group is highly leveraged, with a debt-to-capital ratio of more than
100%.

Cognis successfully refinanced its debt in May 2007 and has no contractual repayment obligations until 2013, which will benefit its liquidity.

Cognis has a satisfactory business profile as the world's leading manufacturer of nature-based specialty chemicals and a midsize producer of synthetic specialty chemicals.

Positive rating factors include the group's strong diversification by end markets and its strong foothold in home and personal care markets that are less volatile than the industrial markets that the chemical industry largely serves.

In addition, Cognis uses nature-based raw materials for up to 51% of its production. Owing to high oil prices, the group has a competitive advantage over companies that only use petrochemicals in their production processes.

Recent price increases in nature-based raw materials, such as palm oil, has reduced this benefit significantly, however.

The outlook is stable because we expect Cognis to continue to benefit from solid demand in key end markets and manage to largely pass on the increased costs of its raw materials. "However, we expect the company to reduce debt only moderately over the next few years," said Mr. Mock.
 

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
..Jyske Bank continua la sponda pro Ineos..3/06/2008 +17/06/2008

Jyske Bank consiglia vivamente l'acquisto di questo bond in euro: Ineos Vinyls Finance 9,125% 01/12/2011 (XS0180620543) con rendimento intorno al 13%. Non riesco a trovarlo da nessuna parte e la banca mi dice che non è trattato in Italia. Avete notizie in merito?

Mark:

Se lo cerchi con Erste bank lo trovi... è un Ineos Vinyls (un società del gruppo) ISIN XS0180620543, emissione piccola (credo sia da 150 mln euro).....Se cerchi sul 3D sul Flight to quality ho postato lì un report della stessa Jyske con l'ultima trimestrale di Ineos ... bruciano liquidità adesso ed il leverage è aumentato di non poco... cautela...

17/06/2008


A proposito, e già che ci sono, il commento di S&P alla riduzione dell'outlook su Ineos nella versione originale.

Ineos Group Outlook Revised To Negative On Less Favorable Prospects In 2009; Affirmed At 'B+'

PARIS (Standard & Poor's) June 11, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
said today that it revised its outlook to negative from stable on U.K.-based
chemicals group Ineos--which includes Ineos Group Holdings PLC, Ineos Holdings Ltd., Ineos Vinyls Finance PLC, and Ineos Vinyls Ltd. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'B+' ratings on all of the entities.

"The outlook revision reflects increased risks and profit pressures, notably in 2009, given less favorable chemical cycles in many segments, high feedstock and energy prices, a potentially insufficiently deleveraged balance sheet, and tight covenant leeway and liquidity in 2009," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Lucas Sevenin.

Ineos is one of the world's biggest chemical companies, with 2007 sales of about €27 billion, derived from intermediate chemicals, petrochemicals, and
oil refining.

"The negative outlook reflects our concerns for weaker profit and cash flow generation, notably in 2009, and resulting tight covenant compliance," said Mr. Sevenin.

We still expect positive free cash flows in 2008, but trending down strongly in 2009 as petrochemical down-cycle pressures increase. Under our assumptions, FFO to adjusted debt may decrease below 10% in 2009. This
possibility would be greater if Ineos takes advantage of any new pportunities
for acquisitions.

A material weakening of profits in 2008 and particularly 2009, in combination with insufficient deleveraging or covenant headroom, would put additional downward pressure on the rating.

The outlook may be revised back to stable if we have more confidence about Ineos' operating performance and continued deleveraging ability.
 

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
2/07/2008: Mark

Si conferma un settore difficile quello della chimica, con un downturn in vista nel 2009 ed il leverage (l'indebitamento rapportato all'EBITDA) su livelli di guardia per molti dei players del comparto, anche per effetto degli investimenti del private equity nel settore.

Dal Financial Times

Private equity pays dear for investment in chemicals
By Salamander Davoudi and Anousha Sakoui

Published: July 1 2008 18:19 | Last updated: July 1 2008 18:20

When investors and bankers look to sectors being affected by the credit crunch, the chemical industry comes close to the top of the list.

Analysts say storm clouds are gathering as a result of slowing GDP and increasing volatility in oil prices, which makes it difficult to pass on price rises to consumers in the short term.

Jonathan Pitkanen, a credit analyst at Morley Fund Management, says: “We are finally at the top of the chemicals sector cycle and there has been limited to no deleveraging in the so-called good times for these companies to survive the downturn that is about to hit.”

The past five years have seen many companies in the sector snapped up by private equity. In 2006, private equity groups accounted for about 50 per cent of global mergers and acquisitions volumes in chemicals, against 5 per cent in 2000.

Their attraction was, ironically, their strong cash positions. But private equity’s commitment to investing in chemicals in the long run, say analysts, is now being put to the test as cash falls and the longer-term investments needed for a successful exit create an even higher drain on cash.

Blackstone has in recent months had to roll up its sleeves to help improve the performance of its buy-out of German plastic film producer Klöckner Pentaplast.

Private equity companies operating in the sector, say observers, are now more than ever focused on managing cash flow and addressing inventory.

Andy Tinlin, UK head of corporate strategy at Accenture, says: “If we get much deeper into a recession in the US and private equity has to toss in 30 to 40 per cent of their original investment, they have some hard decisions to make. They may have to cut the strings on some deals which are not returning the required rate of capital over the next three to four years.”

Over the past 10 years, the chemicals sector has seen a serious ramping up of leverage. The median credit rating in the European chemicals sector will have fallen from A- in 1999 to borderline junk by the end of this year, according to Standard & Poor’s.

John Rogers, senior vice-president at Moody’s Investor Services, says: “The negative outlook on the chemicals industry is due to the substantial run up in petrochemical costs, energy costs and commodity prices as well as slowing growth in Europe and the US. Because of the raw material inflation some chemical companies are now cash flow negative, working capital needs are likely to absorb any free cash flow around. We are definitely seeing problems.”

Industry observers say 2009 is likely to mark a cyclical downturn for petrochemical companies as substantial supply comes on stream – making the next 12 months onwards a pivotal time for the industry.

Jonathan Tyler, director of chemical investment banking at Houlihan Lokey, says: “Some chemical companies have high debt multiples, they are very aggressively leveraged. Money was cheap and they piled it on.

“But many of the listed companies were more risk-averse and had lower debt levels. I don’t expect to see a whole load of right issues. There may have to be some more aggressive restructuring”.

Ineos Group, the UK’s biggest private company and one of the world’s biggest chemical producers, has been listed as one of the six most vulnerable companies in the sector, according to S&P .

Last month Ineos, which is Europe’s biggest junk bond issuer, had its rating outlook downgraded by S&P on concerns over increased risks and profit pressures next year as well as tight covenant leeway.

A spokesman for Ineos accepted the tough economic climate and outlook for 2009 but added that the group was “a diversified business and in good shape to work through the possible downturn in the cycle”.

The chemical sector – both the commodities end and the speciality end – is also being hit hard on account of a limited ability to quickly pass on price increases.

Commodity chemical businesses tend to be more sensitive to the impact of higher oil prices and are more used to volatility.

But the industry has responded. Last month Dow Chemical raised the price of all of its products by up to 20 per cent.
 

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
4/07/2008 MARK su problemi Ciba+8/07/2008

Ciba potrebbe vendere le proprie unit di produzione di sostanze chimiche per il cartario ed inchiostri, la cui non profittevolezza, nonostante le continue ristrutturazioni e tagli dei costi, incide sulle performance complessiva della società.

Ciba è alle prese con un piano di ristrutturazione che comporta il taglio del 19% della propria forza lavoro entro il 2009, mirando all'ottenimento di circa 500 mln $ annui di risparmi sui costi. Ulteriori misure di salvaguardi dei livelli di profittevolezza sono allo studio dopo il forecast che prevede una riduzione dell'utile operativo in misura pari al 15% rispetto ai 552 mln Chf realizzati nel 2007.

La vendita delle due unità produttive dovrebbe portare a consistenti svalutazioni e potrebbe incidere in prospettiva sui rating creditizi. L'utile netto nel Q1/2008 è calato del 51% per effetto della risalita dei costi e di un calo delle vendite del 6%. La costante crescita dei prezzi del petrolio potrebbe portare ad una ulteriore revisione al rialzo della crescita stimata dei costi, in quanto Ciba aveva un forecast di prezzi dell'oil per l'anno corrente fra i 95 ed i 100 $ al barile.

L'utile operativo sulle vendite, a causa della risalita dei costi, è sceso quest'anno nel Q1/2008 al 6,9% contro l'8,1% y-o-y.

La società è intenta ad acquisire un finanziamento fra i 500 ed i 600 mln chf attraverso credito bancario in Europa ed in USA (con la possibilità di emettere un bond) con l'intento - fra l'altro - di rifinanziare una emissione per 300 mln chf in scadenza nel 2009.

Ciba May Sell Unprofitable Paper, Ink Units, CFO Says (Update1)

By Antonio Ligi

July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Ciba Holding AG, the world's largest maker of colors for plastics, may sell unprofitable paper chemicals and inks units to focus on its better-performing coatings and pigments businesses.

``We have been sliding with paper for years, implementing corrective measures,'' Chief Financial Officer Juerg Fedier said in an interview. ``You can't afford to carry businesses for years that are not earning the cost of capital.''

Ciba is in the midst of an overhaul that envisages 2,500 job cuts, or 16 percent of the workforce, by 2009 and targets savings of as much as 500 million Swiss francs ($493 million). Fedier said Ciba is considering further steps, after it forecast that operating profit before reorganization costs will decrease 15 percent from the 552 million francs posted last year.

The company will concentrate on bolstering its coatings and plastic additives divisions, he said. The plastics pigments business, about 6 percent of total sales, enjoys strong global market positions and solid pricing, according to Martin Flueckiger, an analyst at Helvea in Zurich.

``The focus can't be on the operational side only, it has to be on profitable growth and the transformation of the company going forward,'' Fedier, 52, said in an interview at the company's Basel, Switzerland headquarters. ``That is being assessed as a priority.''

The chemicals company fell 62 centimes, or 2.3 percent, to 26.78 francs in Zurich trading as of 10:02 a.m. local time. The stock fell 49 percent this year, giving Ciba a market value of 1.85 billion francs. That makes it the second-worst performer in the 30-member Swiss Leader Index, which has lost 21 percent over the same period.

Paper Drag

Ciba gained about 400 million euros ($635 million) in annual sales from the purchase of Finish paper chemicals maker Raisio in 2004. Since then, the operations have dragged down margins at Water & Paper Treatment, its biggest division, as input costs rose and a global forest products glut forced papermakers to cut output.

Selling the paper chemicals business ``would lead to massive write downs and jeopardize their credit rating,'' according to Helvea's Flueckiger, who has a ``neutral'' rating on the stock.

The Imaging & Inks segment continues to face difficult end- customer markets, with pricing for inks particularly negative, Flueckiger said. Paper chemicals make up about two thirds of sales at the Water & Paper Treatment division and inks account for around 20 percent of the coatings business.

Costs Rise

Net income fell 51 percent in the first quarter to 37 million francs on a 6 percent sales decline. The company has said its raw- material costs will increase 4.5 percent this year based on the assumption of an average oil price of $95 to $100 a barrel.

Costs for raw materials will remain ``volatile'' and the company must anticipate the effects on operating profit, Fedier predicted. He declined to say whether the company's forecast for expenses will change after crude oil rose to more than $144 a barrel.

The company is in discussions for the disposal of ``smaller'' businesses and may spend as much as 200 million francs on purchases, Fedier said.

Ciba, formed in 1997 from the specialty chemical operations of the former Ciba-Geigy Ltd., said operating profit excluding revamp costs fell to 6.9 percent of sales in the first quarter, from 8.1 percent a year earlier. The company announced its current reorganization plan in August 2006 after posting a loss of 256 million francs in 2005.

Fedier said that the company is in negotiations to raise 500 million to 600 million francs through private placements or bonds in Europe and potentially the U.S. to repay a stand-by credit facility by the end of the year. This will allow the company also to refinance a bond of 300 million francs that expires next year, he added.

8/07/2008


E giunge conferma dal CEO dei nuovi piani volti a salvaguardare la profittevolezza di Ciba in una congiuntura del settore che resta molto difficile. Si andrà dalla dismissione dei business non profittevoli al taglio di un numero di prodotti compresi fra il 30% ed il 40% del totale.

Si tratta di prodotti che realizzano fatturati molti piccoli e la cui produzione comporta costi elevati. La marginalità unitaria attuale di tali prodotti non ne giustifica la loro messa in vendita.

Il taglio del numero dei prodotti inciderà sul fatturato, per il quale si attende un calo del 4%, ma dovrebbe consentire un risparmio ulteriore sui costi in misura pari ad almeno il doppio in termini percentuali.

Ciba CEO says may drop unprofitable businesses
Mon Jul 7, 2008 1:49pm BST

BASEL (Reuters) - Swiss special chemicals company Ciba(CIBN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) is stepping up its restructuring efforts as it plans to drop unprofitable businesses and cut up to 40 percent of its products, the Ciba Chief Executive told Reuters.

"We are being more aggressive," said Brendan Cummins, who took office at the beginning of the year.

"Any business that we are not satisfied with, that we can't turn around to the extend that it can perform in a way that it earns at least its cost of capital will be looked at in way that either we turn it around, we fix it or we will exit," he said.

There was no decision yet on which products would bite the dust, Cummins said. But he was not happy with the performance of the company's publication inks and paper chemicals business.

Ciba aimed to drop between 30 to 40 percent of its products and probably a bit more of its customer base, the CEO said.

This would hit Ciba's sales by up to four percent but save a multiple of this in costs, he said.

(Reporting Peter Maushagen and Eva Kuehnen
 

lorenzo63

Age quod Agis
16/07/2008 Report di Jyske su Rhodia

Un interessante report di Jyske su Rhodia... inutile dire che i danesi sono ovviamente Buy, come sempre...
biggrin.gif


In realtà sul comparto grava l'aspettativa di un andamento pesantemente negativo per 1 -2 anni e sui bond HY, finchè il trend del default rate continuerà ad essere verso l'alto, l'attesa di poter vedere prezzi in ulteriore calo.

Sebbene i numeri esposti da Jyske (salvo verificarli) restino decisamente interessanti sia in ordine al leverage, sia in ordine alle scadenze del debito, ci sta che il bond veda ulteriori discese di prezzo, e che almeno il primo dato vada incontro ad un peggioramento nei mesi prossimi (e in genere nel biennio a venire).

Poiché si è parlato di recente di protocollo di Kyoto e di compravendita dei carbon certificates, rammento a tutti come Rhodia sia praticamente la sola azienda ad aver posto l'abbattimento dei livelli di CO2 generati e la vendita dei carbon certificate al centro della propria politica aziendale, ottenendone una significativa fonte di profitti nell'ultimo paio di anni.

Va anche ricordato che l'azienda è francese, e che perciò il mercato sconta attese di eventuali interventi a sostegno ove la situazione dei conti dovesse volgere eccessivamente al brutto (come successo in passato).

Insomma, da rimettere in watch...

Il report di Jyske...

http://www.jyskebank.dk/_jb/commonin...04kbrhodia.pdf
 

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