Obbligazioni societarie Monitor bond Chimica Europa (1 Viewer)

[lorenzo63]

Sempre il 12/03/2007 Mark scriveva a proposito di CIBA:



Associated Press
Ciba Reports 4Q Profit
Associated Press 02.13.07, 1:49 PM ET

Ciba Specialty Chemicals Holding AG on Tuesday reported fourth-quarter net profit of 84 million Swiss francs ($67.2 million) and said Chief Executive Armin Meyer will step down at the start of next year.

Results for the October-December period contrasted with a loss of 476 million francs ($381 million) in the same period of 2005.

The Swiss maker of specialty chemicals said profits were driven by increased shipments and cost savings from its restructuring plan. Fourth-quarter sales were 1.55 billion francs ($1.24 billion), up slightly from 1.54 billion francs in 2005.

The company "made further progress in 2006," Meyer said. "We achieved solid sales growth, as well as underlying improvements in margins and a higher free cash flow."

The fourth quarter helped Ciba narrow losses for last year to 41 million francs ($32.8 million), an improvement from a 256 million franc loss in 2005. Profits last year were affected by the sale of its textile effects business at below book value, but the annual loss was less than predicted by analysts.

Sales rose 5 percent last year to 6.35 billion francs ($5.08 billion), from 6.04 billion francs in 2005, Ciba said.

The company, which in 2006 started its fourth restructuring of the decade, said Meyer would be replaced as CEO by chief operating officer Brendan Cummins (nyse: CMI - news - people ) next year.

The board also proposed a dividend of 3 francs ($2.40) per share for last year.

Ciba said business conditions for 2007 would likely be similar to those last year, with utility and raw material costs remaining high but stable. Ciba is assuming an oil price of $60 a barrel this year.

Michael Jacobi, chief financial officer, told Dow Jones Newswires that the company had strong sales in January, particularly in Asia and Europe, and reiterated company guidance of 3 percent to 4 percent sales growth for the year. Ciba expects net operating income to increase 1 percent this year before restructuring, impairment and other charges.

Ciba shares closed up 0.2 percent at 82.80 francs ($66.25) in Zurich trading.

 

[lorenzo63]

Ancora MARK il 12/03/2008

Questo il grafico del Ciba 2018 quando lo segnalai... qualche settimana fa...

Oggi... ha stornato leggermente dai massimi poco sotto quota 99, ma finchè c'è instabilità (e rischio di instabilità) sull'equity e sull'HY questo è da tenere...

 

[lorenzo63]

Recupero anche questo che (IMHO) mette bene in evidenza i movimenti "particolari" quando bond legati a società con problemi hanno.

Ancora il 12 marzo 2008 MARK a margine di una segnalazione (riportata):

Ho notato che nell'ultima settimana le Ineos 2016 sono calate in maniera vistosa. Fly to quality (come insegna i98mark

), difficoltà del gruppo semplici movimenti dovuti al fatto che scambia pochissimo (a Stoccarda 1 solo contratto in una settimana, ovviamente 50.000 pezzi)?
MARK di rimando:
13/03/2007
Fly to quality per certi versi, ma tutto "a carico nostro"...

Nel senso che il prezzo in ask è rimasto suppergiù quello dei giorni precedenti al fly to quality, (oggi sceso a 94,50, ma è stato anche sui 94,90-95) quello in bid è crollato... quindi se compri è un conto, se vendi invece...

Come hai notato, il bond è poco liquido... fa prezzo di sponda ai corsi che realizza sull'ICMA...

In effetti gli spread che vedo io vanno da 95.58/95.02 dell'ICMA a 90.00/99.80 di Francoforte

Sì, lo spread di Francoforte è delinquenziale... Su OnVista vedi lo spread su Stoccarda che è sempre ampio, ma un po' meno indecoroso... ed è stato anche nell'ordine dello 0,2-0,3%

http://anleihen.onvista.de/snapshot....CH_VALUE=ineos

L'ICMA ti dà l'immediata indicazione di quale sia l'effettiva percezione del rischio da parte degli investitori professionali... il resto è pura cresta bella e buona fatta sulla pelle del retail

14/03/2007

Oggi con l'oil su prezzi più sensati, drastica riduzione dello spread e prezzi in forte risalita...

http://anleihen.onvista.de/snapshot....CH_VALUE=ineos

 

[lorenzo63]

In data 4/06/07 è segnalata da MARK un' altra parte dell' affaire INEOS:

La vera storia del ritiro del progettato rifinanziamento del debito a tassi di interesse più bassi da parte di Ineos (e del contestuale buyback su parte del bond negoziabile) raccontata in inglese dal Financial Times...

In sostanza, il progetto è stato bloccato da un consorzio che raccoglie circa il 10% dei prestatori di Ineos ed il blocco ha avuto successo, nonostante una percentuale di oppositori così limitata, per una serie di ragioni, fra le quali l'attuale assetto proprietario di Ineos, che nasce da un'operazione di MBO (è stata cioè scorporata ed acquistata da managers dell'azienda, non da una o più equity firms, che danno più garanzia ai prestatori).

Gli oppositori del progetto hanno preteso, per ridurre il tasso creditorio sul debito, che Ineos mostri maggiore continuità nel generare buoni risultati in termini di crescita dell'EBITDA e riporti il total debt\EBITDA sotto il 3.5x...

Una parte interessante per l'investitore è quella conclusiva, nella quale si accenna alla probabilità che Ineos riprenda l'operazione mirando non a rinegoziare il debito, ma ad accedere a finanziamenti che consentano di ripagarlo completamente sostituendolo con altro a condizioni più vantaggiose.

Ineos leveraged loan repricing and amendment blocked by investor consortium in rare pushback from lenders
By Carrie-Anne Holt in London

Published: June 1 2007 21:43 | Last updated: June 1 2007 21:43

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In early May, international chemicals group Ineos presented its lenders with an all too familiar dilemma in the red-hot leveraged loan market. Lenders were asked to approve the repricing on the company’s debt at a lower interest rate, or risk being bought out by more willing investors. Two weeks later Ineos pulled the supposedly routine deal following a blocking action spearheaded by a consortium of institutional investors, most of which were US-based.

It marks the first time in recent memory that investors successfully blocked an amendment for a leveraged loan issuer. “I’ve heard about deals where there has been resistance but Ineos is the first time I’ve seen concrete evidence of a block of holders holding out,” said Andrew Shutter, a partner in Cleary Gottleib’s corporate law practice.

Nevertheless, the Ineos rebellion is unlikely to prompt a broader insurgency by loan buyers and could ultimately work to its instigators disadvantage, according to Shutter and a number of market participants. The fear of alienating private equity sponsors and the omnipresent risk of refinancing should keep most investors from pushing back too hard, they said.

While investors proved willing to stand up to Ineos, the company lacked an important advantage enjoyed by many of the other leveraged issuers flooding the market – namely a private equity sponsor. “If people want to get in to future deals from a sponsor, they won’t want to antagonise that sponsor [with a blocking action],” said Shutter.

On 2 May, Ineos announced a repricing and restructuring of its existing debt through agent Bank Barclays Capital and offered loan holders a 10bps fee for the amendment. The consent period for eligibility was expected to expire on 18 May, but the company extended this period on the deadline date for a further six days. Ineos then cancelled the amendment three days later when it announced the EUR 674m purchase of Norsk Hydro’s polymer division through a separate funding vehicle.

“The acquisition was anticipated a long time ago,” said one loan holder. “I would be surprised if there was a connection between the acquisition and the repricing withdrawal.”

When asked about the connection between the asset purchase and the pulled repricing, a source close to the company said that Ineos is an active acquirer of businesses and the Norsk Hydro transaction was one of a number of possibilities. “It just happened much faster than expected,” the source said.

At issue was the company’s proposal to roll its eight-year EUR 1.775bn equivalent +250bps term loan B (225bps on the USD denominated amount) and nine-year EUR 1.775bn equivalent +300bps term loan C (275bps on the USD denominated amount) – both issued in 2005 – into a new single term loan B paying +225bps.

Following the announcement of the proposed amendment, a syndicate of more than 20 investors holding more than EUR 800m equivalent of Ineos bank debt formed. The consortium of largely US-based lenders, represented in excess of 10.1% of the Ineos lending syndicate required to block the transaction.

While significant structural changes to bank loans require unanimous approval from investors, most indentures include an out for borrowers in the form of provisions commonly called “yank-the-bank” clauses. These covenants permit borrowers to buy out lenders that don’t agree to amendments at par, as long as a pre-specified majority of lenders approve the proposal.

The required threshold can be a two-thirds majority or lower, but in the case of Ineos it was relatively high at 90%, allowing the US contingency to accumulate a blocking stake with relative ease. While most European participants shied from overtly opposing the deal, some did express their disapproval indirectly.

“Ineos boasts a large global investor base and this blocking consortium counts a large number of US investors,” commented one Ineos lender holding more than EUR 30m equivalent of Ineos bank debt on Monday last week. The syndicate of blocking lenders presented a counter offer to BarCap, according to one investor. “All we [lenders] are saying to the company [in the counter proposal] is that you can have the repricing, just show us that you can perform,” he said.

The counter offer from lenders proposed to keep pricing as it is on the existing facilities until the company’s leverage drops below 3.5x total debt/EBITDA. At that point, the counter offer stated that pricing on the term loan A drops to 175bps from 225bps, on the term loan B to 200bps from 250/225bps (EUR/USD) and on the term loan C to 250bps from 300/275bps (EUR/USD). Additionally, the counter offer requested that pricing on the second lien piece remain at the existing 375bps and asked for soft call protection of 102, 101 on the senior debt.

The absence of sponsor ownership was just one sticking point mentioned by holdout investors. “It’s a combination of things,” said the first lender. “The lack of sponsor is one issue, but the group had also reported relatively poor performance until the earnings release we received,” he said.

According to an Ineos release sent out to investors during the amendment period, Ineos reported Q1 2007 EBITDA of cEUR 570m, up on Q1 2006 EBITDA of cEUR 566m. “But Ineos reported Q4 2006 EBITDA of EUR 306m which is relatively poor,” continued one lender. “Fundamental performance and cashflow have not been great and if you throw all of these things against an issuer that hasn’t performed that well then it is going to stick a bit,” he concluded.<br>

“Ten basis points is nothing,” commented one lender on 17 May, confirming that he had decided not to vote in favour of, or against the repricing. “At least I get to show my support for the move to block,” he added.

While the insurgents staved off the amenmdent, their victory may prove a pyrrhic one, said Shutter and other investors. Given the liquidity that continues to slosh through the primary markets, Ineos will likely raise new financing in the near term to refinance its existing debt completely, they said

 

[lorenzo63]

In data 20/6/2007


Mentre tutti i bond IG lunghi rimbalzano dopo la chiusura del T-Bond 10 y di ieri (con prezzi sui massimi di giornata e rendimenti sui minimi) il bond Ciba 2017 cede marginalmente sull'onda di indiscrezioni che voglio l'americana Huntsman interessata all'acquisto di Clariant o di Ciba...

In realtà, Huntsman ha escluso qualsiasi takeover ostile, dichiarando per bocca del CEO di essere interessata solo ad accordi "amichevoli", e mentre Clariant ha dichiarato di non avere ricevuto alcuna offerta, Ciba ha invece manifestato l'intenzione di procedere per conto proprio, respingendo ogni interesse ad una incorporazione da parte di altre aziende.

Cionondimeno, il bond si è fermato sull'onda delle notizie dopo il recupero dai minimi messo a segno ieri.

La vicenda in un report della Reuters...

Huntsman eyes Clariant, Ciba takeovers - report
Tue Jun 19, 2007 3:30PM EDT
Email | Print | Digg | Reprints | Single Page [-] Text [+]

ZURICH, June 19 (Reuters) - U.S. chemicals group Huntsman Corp. (HUN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is keen on buying Swiss peers Clariant (CLN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) and Ciba (CIBN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research), the head of Huntsman was quoted as saying, reinforcing the view either group may be taken over.

"It would certainly be interesting for Huntsman to buy Clariant, or parts of it," Chief Executive Officer Peter Huntsman told Swiss newspaper Handelszeitung.

"The same goes for Ciba," said Huntsman, whose group makes chemicals used in paints and textiles.

Merger speculation has been swirling around Clariant as well as cross-town rival Ciba, as specialty chemicals companies have been hard hit by higher raw material costs and increasing competition from low-cost producers in Asia.

But Huntsman said he would not make a hostile offer.

"First, Clariant or single divisions must officially be for sale," Huntsman told the newspaper.

A Clariant spokesman said the company had received no takeover offers, the newspaper said, while a spokesman for Ciba said the company was well equipped to go it alone.

German chemicals group Lanxess (LXSG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) was mentioned last month as a possible suitor for Clariant, boosting its shares. Lanxess at the time declined to comment.

Ciba last year sold its Textile Effects unit to Huntsman for some 330 million Swiss francs ($266.1 million).

Ed il 21/06/2007


Ciba ha escluso di voler procedere al disinvestimento di proprie unità operative nel prossimo futuro ed ha parimenti escluso l'intenzione di effettuare acquisizioni di ampia portata.

Ha ribadito il convincimento di poter ottenere da sola una crescita organica significativa.

Purchè accellerino il programma di accrescimento dei margini nel settore debole...

Le news in una AFX ripresa da Forbes...

AFX News Limited
Ciba says no large divestments planned after Huntsman signals interest
06.21.07, 6:44 AM ET

ZURICH (Thomson Financial) - Ciba Speciality Chemicals said it does not plan any major divestments in the near future, after US chemicals group Huntsman Corp said it might be interested in buying segments of the group.

'We think that we have a focused portfolio and therefore do not plan any significant divestments,' a Ciba spokesman said.

He added that Ciba is focusing on organic growth and also has no plans for large acquisitions.

In an interview published in Swiss newspaper Handelszeitung yesterday, Huntsman chief executive Peter Huntsman said his group might be interested in buying either parts or all of either Ciba or Swiss peer Clariant.

He also said he did not plan a hostile takeover.

Huntsman bought Ciba's textile segment for 332 mln sfr last year.

Clariant was not immediately available for comment.

 

[lorenzo63]

Un' altro pezzo della parabola INEOS da MARK:


Ineos è divenuta la prima società dell'UK fra quelle non quotate per fatturato e ha un discreto EBITDA (peccato per il debito che scherza poco...

)

Prezzi calati molto per via dello storno...

Ineos top of private business
THE low-profile chemicals firm Ineos has seen off consumer giants such as Somerfield and Virgin Atlantic to become Britain’s biggest private company.

Ineos, launched just nine years ago by engineer-turned-investor Jim Ratcliffe, is No 1 on this year’s Sunday Times KPMG Top Track 100, which ranks businesses by sales. The company has a turnover of £18.1 billion, more than three times that of the No 2, John Lewis Partnership.

Ratcliffe has built Ineos by snapping up undervalued subsidiaries of oil and chemical giants. Last year he acquired Innovene, BP’s chemicals arm, for £5.1 billion in a deal that quadrupled Ineos’s revenues, relying on the bond market for finance, in contrast to the 39 private-equity-backed businesses in the table.

Ineos is also by far the most profitable company on the Top Track 100, with operating profits of £630m, ahead of Thames Water, one of several utilities that joined the league table this year.

The 100 companies generated sales of £118 billion and employ more than 871,000 staff

Ed il 30/07/2007 MARK:

Originalmente inviato da Massimo S.
Ehi Mark, ma il tuo thread sui bond del settore chimico che fine ha fatto, non lo aggiorni più? Ti dico questo perché ero curioso di vedere cosa avresti scritto su INEOS, che fra un po' va in negativo (nel senso che il prezzo scende sotto zero

)

ms
Allora, visto che la curiosità di Massimo S. deve essere appagata... provvedo subito...

Intanto chiarisco che il bond ha attualmente un bid ask di 83,50 - 84,00 ed un last sui mercati tedeschi di 85,00...

Io personalmente sono dentro al prezzo di 94,00 ed è questo l'unico bond HY dal quale non sono uscito in tempo utile per evitare l'ondata di vendite nel settore e perdo attualmente dei quattrini... la qual cosa, va da sé, non mi fa piacere...

Il bond di Ineos aveva dato buona prova di sé nella prima fase di vendite sull'HY, tenedo meglio di altri bond di pari rating in virtù dei buoni risultati (superiori alle attese) diffusi di recente dalla società e delle aspettative di un ulteriore progresso in futuro...

Nella fase delle vendite su tutto il settore "per comparti in base al rating", che è in corso attualmente, il bond ha ceduto molti punti percentuali...

Cosa è cambiato nell'andamento di Ineos dai primi di giugno (in cui il bond della società arrivava a prezzare in ask 99) e sulle aspettative di breve periodo sulla sua capacità di migliorare ulteriormente la propria performance ?

Non è cambiato nulla: i margini della raffinazione continuano ad essere elevati, in virtù della mancanza di investimenti nel settore, della carenza di nuovi impianti nell'Europa occidentale e negli USA, dei prezzi elevati del petrolio, del buon momento attuale - temporaneo finché si vuole, ma pare destinato ancora a durare per un po' - della petrolchimica in occidente.

Ciò che è cambiato è l'andamento dell'HY e la percezione del rischio di credito in termini generali.

Quanto durerà ? Che cosa succederà dopo ?

Boh ! Da investitore privato (non "guru") non ho strumenti di lettura dei mercati superiori a quelli di Goldman Sachs, di Lemahn Brothers, di Morgan Stanley, di Merrill Lynch, di Bear Stearns, di Citigroup, di Bank of America, per fare alcuni dei nomi di primarie banche commerciali e di affari rimaste incastrate per decine di miliardi di USD nelle vicende dell'HY, per non averne valutato nè la tempistica, nè l'estensione.

Però, sempre da normale investitore, provo a ragionare sulla situazione attuale, con un PIL USA Q2 a + 3,4%, con i prezzi del petrolio e delle commodities sui massimi, con il livello dei default societari ancora sui minimi storici, e non mi viene da vendere ora questo bond...

Avrò fatto meglio o peggio di Goldman Sachs ? Per ora ho fatto meglio io ... e non ho legami di amicizia (come invece per i vertici di GS) nè con il ministro dell'economia USA, nè con il governatore della FED, entrambi ex dirigenti della stessa GS...

E il 15/08/2008 inizia la discesa: (MARK)

Il downgrade su Ineos di Moody's. In cima alle motivazioni la scarsa voglia di Ineos di darsi da fare per ridurre il proprio debito...

Moody's insiste sull'esigenza che questo sia ridotto (o che la marginalità operativa sia incrementata) prima dell'inversione dell'attuale ciclo favorevole per l'industria petrolchimica e della chimica di base.

Rating Action: Ineos Group Holdings plc

Moody's downgrades Ineos to B1, outlook is stable.

London, 09 August 2007 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded corporate family rating of Ineos Group Holdings plc to B1 from Ba3. The ratings on its existing senior first lien facilities were downgraded to Ba3, second-lien facilities to B3, and the rating on its senior guaranteed notes were downgraded to B3. Legacy notes at Ineos Vinyls were also downgraded to B3. Outlook is stable.

The rating action reflects slower than expected deleveraging of the LBO and the agency's cautious view of the company's modest prospects of an accelerated debt reduction in the near future.

Ineos operating performance in 2006 was affected by exceptional operating issues, such as unplanned closures at its Scottish refinery that affected Ineos EBITDA margins.

Profitability and cash flow generation remained below Moody's initial expectations, notwithstanding fixed cost reduction remaining ahead of 2006 plan and before taking into account exceptional items.

At the end of 2006, the Debt / EBITDA leverage stood at 6.1x on adjusted basis (after exceptional items), with FCF / Debt at 5%.

At the peak of the current extended petrochemical cycle, Moody's views this level of leverage as elevated, given that the Ba3 corporate family rating of the group was underpinned by an expectation of strong de-leveraging before the cycle turns.

The rating outlook is stable reflecting Moody's expectation for some improvement in cash flow generation in 2007 supported by successful fixed cost reductions, higher utilization rate of the refineries and improvement in working capital management targeted by the group.

Moody's notes that Ineos management has taken measures to mitigate reliability problems at Grangemouth refinery in 2007, and that operating performance is expected to be also supported by improving margins in key Chemical Intermediaries, continuous strength in the European polyolefins and sound outlook for the European refining.

Moody's notes that the recently announced acquisition of polymer assets from Norsk Hydro presently remains outside of the rated group.

Moody's cautions that a deterioration in global market conditions could likely pressure the highly leveraged capital structure.

Weak cash flow debt coverage metrics with FFO plus Interest / Interest falling below 2.0x or weakening FCF are likely to put negative pressure on the current rating. Sustained reduction in leverage closer to 4x on adjusted basis or strong cash flow generation with FCF / Debt in high single digits, would put pressure on the current corporate family rating.


The ratings affected are:

Ineos Group Holdings plc:

- Corporate Family Rating of B1

- Probability of Default Rating at B1

- EUR 1,750 million and USD 750 million 2016 senior guaranteed notes to B3 (LGD5, 89%) from B2 (LGD5, 89%)

Ineos Holdings Limited

- EUR 4,310 million and USD1,930 million first-lien senior guaranteed bank facilities to Ba3 (LGD3, 34%) from Ba2 (LGD3, 34%);

- EUR 650 million second lien senior secured loans to B3 (LGD5, 78%) from B1 (LGD5, 78%);

Ineos Vinyls Finance plc

- EUR 160 million senior guaranteed notes to B3 (LGD6, 96%) from B2 (LGD6, 96%)

Ineos Group Holdings plc is a diversified and integrated chemicals group headquartered in Southampton, the United Kingdom. Ineos reported 2006 Revenues of EUR 26.6 billion and 3 months 2007 Revenues of EUR 6.6 billion and EBITDA for 2006 of EUR 1.7 billion and EUR 0.6 billion for 3 months of 2007 (after exceptionals).

Il 15/8/2007 (Super..straordinari!!! )
Interessante il confronto/scontro tra JYSKE E MOODY'S

Jyske ovviamente sostiene che Ineos ce le può fare a ridurre il debito sotto il livello di guardia (se volessero, opinione personale, dovrebbero ricorrere ad un'IPO, trattandosi del terzo gruppo chimico mondiale per fatturato, sempre finchè le condizioni di mercato la rendano praticabile) ed avendo esibito nel Q1 2007 un EBITDA in crescita ed un EBITDA margin del 9%.

http://www.jyskebank.dk/_jb/commonin...etafmoodys.pdf

Riporto anche la valutazione espressa da S&P dal report sulla chimica europea dello scorso 19 luglio.

Ineos Group Holdings PLC ( B+/Stable/-- )
First-quarter EBITDA generation was overall satisfactory, with a 9% EBITDA margin, contrasting with somewhat weaker-than-expected performance in the second half of 2006. For the second quarter and the rest of the year, we expect higher performance versus 2006, when various important production shutdowns impacted profits. Furthermore, the group should benefit from recently announced acquisitions (PVC plus cracker). 2006 cash flow metrics, FOCF, and leverage appeared in line with the rating. We expect the group's FFO to adjusted debt to remain above 10%, and FOCF to stay positive in 2007

 

[lorenzo63]

16/08/2007 Trim CIBA

Trimestrale Q2 di Ciba Speciality Chemicals... inferiore alle attese, con un utile netto in forte calo (-45%) y-o-y e rispetto alle stime degli analisti.

Avvisaglie circa un risultato inferiore alle attese vi erano state, tant'è che la società aveva varato nelle scorse settimane un programma di incremento dei prezzi, motivato in considerazione della pressione esercitata sui propri costi per effetto dei prezzi del petrolio e dei suoi derivati, più elevati di quanto non si fosse stimato nel 2006.

Il titolo azionario oggi cala a picco (non è la giornata giusta per risultati al di sotto delle attese ed inoltre il calo delle possibilità di un takeover su Ciba, dovuta al sostanziale blocco degli LBO nei prossimi mesi, aveva già inciso sull'equity, privata di appeal speculativo), mentre i bond segnano un discreto recupero, in linea con la buona giornata dell'IG e favoriti anche dalla circostanza per cui di LBO su Ciba non si parlerà per un po'.

Ciba ha lasciato immutate le proprie stime per l'intero anno 2007, evidentemente confidando che gli aumenti dei prezzi varati e le misure di contenimento dei costi possano avere efficacia su base annua.

Il problema non è tanto il fatturato (in crescita, seppure modesta) quanto i margini, con un EBIT o risultato operativo in calo anch'esso al netto dei costi straordinari di ristrutturazione, a quota 139 mln CHF contro i 152 mln CHF dell'anno precedente ed i 159 mln CHF attesi dagli analisti.

Vediamo come procede...

AFX News Limited
CIBA Q2 net falls 45 pct, misses forecasts UPDATE
08.16.07, 3:06 AM ET

(updating with additional details, outlook, margins, savings, divisions)

ZURICH (Thomson Financial) - Ciba Speciality Chemicals reported second quarter net profit from continued operations of 33 mln sfr, down from 60 mln sfr compared with the year earlier and falling sharply below analyst consensus forecasts of 67 mln sfr.

Analysts has forecast a net profit from continuing operations and after restructuring costs in a range of 57-76 mln sfr.

Looking ahead, the Swiss chemicals group confirmed its full year outlook saying it expects sales to increase from 2006 in local currencies, operating income to rise by 1 pct, and both net income and free cash flow to be higher than in 2006.

In the second quarter, Ebit excluding restructuring costs dropped to 139 mln sfr from 152 mln, also falling significantly short of consensus forecasts of 159 mln sfr. Including restructuring costs the operating profit fell to 77 mln sfr from 145 mln sfr.

Ciba's profitability was hit once again by rising raw material prices posting an Ebit margin decline to 8.4 pct from 9.3 pct in the year earlier period.

Sales rose to 1.65 bln sfr, from 1.62 bln sfr one year ago, in line with the forecast range of 1.62-1.68 bln sfr, or 1.652 bln on average.

Ciba's cost saving and efficiency programme, 'Operational Agenda' incurred 62 mln sfr restructuring costs in the first half.

For the full year, the group expects to incur 90-100 mln sfr of restructuring charges and achieve 60-70 mln sfr of savings.

Ciba only disclosed first half figures for its segments, with Plastic Additives posting 1.08 bln sfr sales, up 1 pct in Swiss francs and local currencies.

Growth slowed as a result of efforts to improve the margin quality of the product portfolio and was particularly impacted, Ciba said.

Sales in Coating Effects reached 940 mln sfr in the first half, up 1 pct in Swiss francs and local currencies.

Growth in the segment was impacted by the slowdown of the automotive and construction industries, as well as an extensive program to prune products with low margins.

Strong growth, however, was seen in the digital printing business, the group said.

Sales in Water & Paper Treatment totaled 1.29 bln sfr for the first six months, up 4 pct in Swiss francs and 3 pct in local currencies.

However, Ciba said that profitability does remain an issue and therefore efforts are continuing to restore acceptable profitability level

Interessante anche il commento di Mark (16/08/2007) che rimarca la elevata ciclicità (nn a caso a ridosso dei forti aumenti petrolio) del settore.


Dato che ci sono, posto le prospettive del petrolchimico e dei produttori di plastiche come individuate da S&P nel report sulla chimica dello scorso 19 luglio. Il settore attraversa una fase di andamento ciclico favorevole, con alta ultilizzazione degli impianti e forte potere di determinazione dei prezzi in capo alle aziende che vi operano. Assestata su livelli elevati la marginalità operativa, vista anche la facilità nel passare ai clienti gli incrementi nei costi delle materie prime.

Fra le aziende di cui si è parlato in passato, il quadro descritto riguarda - insieme ad altre - SABIC, Ineos, Rhodia e Du Pont fra le americane.

S&P non si aspetta un surplus di capacità produttiva prima del 2009, quindi la buona fase del petrolchimico dovrebbe andare avanti ancora per un po'.

Petrochemicals and plastics
Healthy capacity utilization is still giving strong pricing power to producers of basic chemicals and plastics, leading to good margins. Our calculated cracker margin indicator for Europe-based naphtha crackers (chart 3) shows a stabilization of the margin at a high level as the higher naphtha costs were passed on in an increase of ethylene prices from the reduced levels of May 2007 as well as increases in other key petrochemical prices. Polyolefin producers like Basell, SABIC, SABIC Europe, and Ineos showed strong first-quarter performance, reflecting the good environment for petrochemicals producers, and are expected to do so in the second quarter.

There is no change to our assumptions on the petrochemical cycle. We still expect the supply/demand balance to remain strong and do not expect a capacity surplus before 2009

16/08/2007 MARK
Per le specialty chemicals (interessati, fra gli issuer esaminati nel 3D, Ciba e Cognis), S&P sottolinea come il recupero della profittevolezza proceda molto a rilento, soprattutto per effetto dell'incremento dei prezzi delle materie prime (spesso costituite dall'output del petrolchimico).

In ogni caso, nota la agency, gli operatori del comparto sono stati in grado di incrementare i volumi nel Q1 2007.

Le aspettative di S&P sono per un miglioramento della profittevolezza per i prossimi trimestri, da imputare ad un mix di crescita del livello di utilizzazione degli impianti, rinnovo del portafoglio dei prodotti e riduzione del prezzo del benzene.

Specialty chemicals
Profitability recovery remains slow, as petrochemical prices increased again and have eaten up parts of the improved product mixes and price increases of specialty players including Ciba, Cognis, and Clariant. Construction business is doing extremely well, evidenced by Sika's strong improvement in cash flow generation. While volume growth is positive for all players and above 3% across rated companies in the first quarter of 2007, we expect profitability to show improvement in the coming quarters, reflecting increased capacity utilization and a renewing of product portfolios by the specialty chemicals players. In addition, there is still an expectation of a reduction in benzene prices, which would support several players for whom benzene is a very important input.

e sempre il 16/08/2007 MARK su richiesta:
Mi chiedi delle Air Liquide... ti posto volentieri info sull'andamento aziendale, i ratings ecc.

Però per la ricerca dei bonds mi attengo il criterio per cui insegnare a qualcuno a pescare è sempre più utile che regalargli un pesce.

Nella seconda maniera il beneficiario mangia per una volta; nella prima si rende autosufficiente e magari pure in grado di dare una mano al suo prossimo, il che non guasta.

Questo è il link ad un sito tedesco (OnVista) dove reperisci gli eurobond più comunemente negoziati al retail. In alto a sinistra, digiti il nome dell'emittente, poi schiacci il pulsante "Suche"

E il gioco è fatto... In ogni scheda di ciascun bond, sulla destra, trovi indicato il rendimento lordo calcolato in automatico sull'ultimo prezzo...

http://anleihen.onvista.de/suche.html

 

[lorenzo63]

Il 27/08/2007 MARK:

Su Ciba la view negativa di Barron's ... viste le percentuali con cui ci azzecca negli ultimi tempi, è quasi un segnale positivo...

Ciba's Woes Aren't Fading
By SEAN WALTERS

Global Stock Markets

INVESTORS ARE LOSING PATIENCE with Ciba specialty chemicals, and with good reason. As the cost of its raw materials climbs, Ciba is being squeezed between powerful basic chemical suppliers and price-sensitive customers.

It's true that rising material costs are affecting all the players in the specialist-chemicals industry. But some companies have proven to be better at dealing with the problem than others.

Take Clariant -- like Ciba, a Swiss company. Raw materials represent about 40% of its total costs, as they do for Ciba (ticker: CIBN.Switzerland). Clariant (CLN.Switzerland) has adopted an aggressive stance toward hiking prices. In the second quarter, Clariant increased average prices by 1%, its third such rise since the beginning of 2006.

Clariant has been able to do this by introducing efficient pricing and client-relationship systems. Ciba, in contrast, dropped its average prices 1% in the first and second quarters, following an overall decline in 2006.

Ciba's shares have slumped 20% in the past month, and its second-quarter 2007 results, posted Thursday, were disappointing, missing analysts' expectations. The company's prospects don't look bright, either.


No Escape: Despite talk of markets decoupling, Europe has felt pressure from U.S. credit-market woes.
Its Operational Agenda restructuring and cost-saving program, aimed at saving up to 500 million Swiss francs by 2009, looks on track to reduce outlays by CHF60 million-CHF70 million this year. (Ciba even delisted its shares from the New York Stock Exchange recently to trim costs. Its stock, which was quoted near 26 Friday, still trades over the counter in the U.S., under the symbol CSBHY.PK.)

But the impact of raw-material cost inflation, up by an average of 4% in the first half, is likely to erode the positive effects of Ciba's efforts. That has to worry investors. Especially as Ciba's target of increasing its 2007 operating margin by 1% on 2006 -- it was up by only 0.2% in the first half -- apparently hinges on a slowdown in the rise in raw-material costs. But with the second quarter's oil-price rises still to filter through, that is unlikely.

Ciba's share price has trailed the Euro STOXX Basic Materials index by 28% in the past year. It's trading at 11 times estimated 2008 earnings, below the sector median of 13 times but above rivals Clariant, at nine times, and Rhodia (RHA), at eight times.

Investors may still see value in Ciba if they expect raw-material inflation to dampen and believe that the company can retain most of its cost savings. However, there's little evidence to support that point of view.

European stocks rallied broadly Friday after the Federal Reserve cut the U.S. discount rate, a move that shored up confidence in markets recently battered by credit woes.

The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index closed up 3.5% for the day and 0.43% for the week, to 6,064.20, while the French CAC-40 index was up 1.9% Friday and 1.5% for the week, to 5,363.63. The German DAX 30 index climbed 1.5% for the day and 0.48% for the week, to 7,378.29

 

[lorenzo63]

Poi arriva la segnalazione che in data 31/08/2008 Ineos migliora un po':

Buone notizie da Ineos. Nell'odierno report Corporates Daily , Jyske Bank riferisce di conti molto ben messi nel secondo trimestre. E reitera la raccomandazione buy per i bond sia in euro che in dollari.

E Mark:

In effetti, la situazione pare migliorare... l'auspicio per i possessori del bond è quello di una tenuta del buon momento della petrolchimica ancora a lungo, di una intensificazione degli sforzi di ristrutturazione e di una riduzione del capital expenditure destinato ai nuovi acquisti...

Se poi venisse un'IPO, tanto meglio...

Particolarmente buono mi sembra il dato del fcf.

Il momento critico dell'HY fa sì che il bond 7.875% 2016 migliori le quotazioni solo marginalmente... Un peccato, perché in altri tempi i progressi mostrati da Ineos avrebbero dato bel altra spinta ai corsi...

Il dispaccio di jyske

Excellent Q2 accounts from Ineos

On 29 August, Ineos released its Q2 2007 accounts.

Sales rose from EUR 6.6bn in Q1 to EUR 6.9bn in Q2. EBITDA also improved from EUR 568m in Q1 to EUR 657m in Q2.

The improved operating earnings are primarily due to a strong advance in the business units Refining and Chemical Intermediates. The business segment O&P Europe also improved.

Cash flows from operations also increased strongly in Q2 2007 from EUR 153m in Q1 2007 to EUR 696m in Q2. In addition, Ineos generated a positive free cash flow in Q2, which was also a significant increase compared to Q1.

The free cash flow came to EUR 556m in Q2 compared with EUR 43m in Q1.
The Q2 2007 accounts showed that Ineos still generates strong free cash flows and that operating earnings are still improving.

Furthermore, Ineos managed to reduce its interest-bearing debt. We still believe that Ineos will also in future improve its credit profile, and thus we maintain our BUY recommendation of Ineos EUR 7.875% 2016 and USD 8.5% 2016.

 

[lorenzo63]

10/09/2007 CIBA in difficoltà

Articolo vecchio di 3 settimane: lo posto perché mette a fuoco con efficacia i problemi che si trova ad affrontare Ciba e le strategie in adozione alla ricerca di possibili soluzioni...

Ciba Shares Drop; Company Struggles to Pass on Costs (Update3)

By Thom Rose

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Ciba Specialty Chemicals AG, the world's largest maker of colors for plastics, fell the most in 18 months in Zurich as paint-additive prices dropped and costs for oil-based raw materials rose.

Ciba shares declined 5.80 francs, or 8.4 percent, to 63.25 francs, the Basel, Switzerland-based company's biggest one-day slide since Feb. 1, 2005.

Average selling prices dropped about 1 percent during the period, preventing the company from passing on a 4 percent increase in the cost of materials, Chairman Armin Meyer said on a conference call today. Slower demand from the U.S. auto and construction industries and a lack of new products on the market put pressure on prices at Ciba, which holds about 7 percent of the $14 billion global market for polymer additives.

``The second quarter was disappointing and I'll reduce some of my estimates,'' said Nina Baiker, an analyst at Zuercher Kantonalbank in Zurich with a ``market underperform'' rating on the shares. ``The company suffered from selling price erosion.''

Net income reached 27 million Swiss francs ($22 million), compared with a loss of 239 million francs a year earlier, the company said today in a statement. Sales climbed 2 percent to 1.65 billion francs.

Job Losses

Ciba plans to cut 2,500 jobs to lower expenses by as much as 500 million francs by 2009 after costs and pressure from Asian competitors pushed the company to a loss. Meyer said the company booked about 62 million francs in overhaul costs in the first half and expects to spend 100 million francs in the full year. In the last year, Ciba has cut 1,100 jobs, he said.

The company uses oil-derived raw materials to make chemicals including paint ingredients. The price of crude oil has risen 18 percent so far this year, pushing up costs.

Sales prices fell the most in the company's coating unit, where North American demand weakened and aging electronic materials products dragged down results, Ciba said. The plastic additives unit also reported lower prices as competition put pressure on polymer sales.

Meyer, who will be replaced in his second role as chief executive officer by Chief Operating Officer Brendan Cummins, said the company's selling prices fell in part as products stayed on the market longer. He said the company will push for more price increases in the future.

Track Record

``Considering Ciba's track record of bad news, I'm actually pleasantly surprised by what I'm seeing,'' said Christoph Berger, a fund manager at Cominvest Asset Management in Frankfurt, who oversees about $75 billion of assets including Ciba shares. ``They know that they need to improve their controlling and I think Cummins will take care of this once he is in the driver's seat.''

The company had more than 5 million francs in unexpected costs as it installs a new information technology system, Meyer said. He said he can't rule out further overruns of as much as 10 million francs for the project.

Ciba is organized along three divisions: Plastic Additives, Coating Effects, and Water and Paper Treatment. Revenue is evenly split between Europe, the Americas and Asia Pacific. First-half growth was crimped by ``slower'' automotive and construction markets in North America, Meyer said. Full- year sales and profit will increase from the year earlier, he said.

U.S. Slump

``In coating effects the slow U.S. auto and construction market hit sales and margins,'' Fabian Wenner, an analyst at Credit Suisse in Zurich with a ``sell'' rating on the stock, wrote in a note to investors. In the water and paper treatment unit ``profitability remains an issue.''

Chemtura Corp., the world's largest maker of plastic additives, had a second-quarter net loss on higher-raw materials prices and costs to close plants and cut jobs. Akzo Nobel NV, the No. 1 maker of paints and coatings said pretax profit rose in the period after it raised prices by an average of 3 percent.

Ciba has no plans to sell its paper-chemicals business and plans for the division to reach an operating margin of more than 5 to 6 percent in two years, Meyer said in May. In the first quarter, the margin before revamping costs was 2.4 percent compared with 15.7 percent in plastic additives and 13 percent in coatings.

The chairman said that the company is targeting acquisitions of as much as 100 million francs in coatings and plastic additives. Polymer additives account for about 18 percent of Ciba's total business said Ron Babinsky, senior consultant for Houston-based Townsend Polymer Services and Information. Chemtura, based in Middlebury Connecticut, has about 12 percent of the market, he said.

``We are on track with our restructuring,'' Meyer said. ``We have no reason why we shouldn't reach the profit margin of our peers.'' The chairman said he expects raw-material prices to ``level off'' this year and fall in the ``longer-term.''

The company entered China more than a century ago and is now the third-biggest producer of chemicals in the country. The market there is expected to grow more than 10 percent for the next few years, the company said in May.