Obbligazioni in dollari Keep Calm And Invest Preferred Shares Usa (6 lettori)

wallner

wallner

Gold Standard
non mi spiego un fatto. i tassi usa aumentano. l'inflazione usa aumenta. e le nuove offerte di pref hanno cedole sempre più basse e il premio medio sulla par è intorno al 9% (fonte preferred stock channel). mi sa tanto di bolla ... qualcuno ha un'opinione ?
 

Peco

Forumer storico
wallner ha scritto:
non mi spiego un fatto. i tassi usa aumentano. l'inflazione usa aumenta. e le nuove offerte di pref hanno cedole sempre più basse e il premio medio sulla par è intorno al 9% (fonte preferred stock channel). mi sa tanto di bolla ... qualcuno ha un'opinione ?
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Ciao wallner, oggi ho letto questi interessanti commenti riguardo i rendimenti

KATHY JONES: The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates for the past couple of years, and it looks like they’re signaling that they’re going to continue to raise them over the next year or so, and yet what we’ve seen recently is that longer-term treasury bond yields haven’t been rising as much. The 10-year treasury yield is getting stuck right around the 2.8 to 3% area for most of this year, which raises the question of: Just how high will yields go for bonds in this cycle? I’m Kathy Jones, and this is Bond Market Today. I’m joined by my colleague, Collin Martin, and we’re going to talk about this idea of just how high bond yields might go in this cycle. So what’s your take on it?

COLLIN MARTIN: Well, one thing we look at is the relationship between 10-year treasury yields and the Fed Funds Rate because we found that over time, 10-year treasury yields tend to peak close to wherever the Fed Funds Rate peaks. So we’re looking at FOMC projections to kind of see where are they going to stop hiking rates--and based on the most recent projections, it looks like the Fed Funds Rate will probably get to the 3.0, 3.25, maybe 3.5% area. So, given that 10-year treasury yields are a little below 3% right now, that offers some upside, but not as much as a lot of investors might be expecting.

KATHY: Yeah, and based on history, then, that might be why the move-up in yields is kind of slowing down.

You know, the other thing I think that’s in here is inflation expectation. So we’ve seen inflation steadily kind of picking up towards that 2%, 2.5% region that the Fed has been targeting, but it’s been a pretty slow move. And when we look at where expectations for inflation are, they’re not much higher than this for the longer term. If you look at the implied inflation in the TIPS breakeven market or some of the survey-based inflation measures, 2 to 2.5% is about where they’re resting. So I think that might be a component in this, as well.And the other thing is, of course, global yields, right? Those are still low.

COLLIN: That’s right. Even though we have a seen a move-up in US yields, they now offer a pretty large yield advantage relative to a lot of other developed market government bond yields. So, again, 10-year treasury yields are close to the 3% area right now. If you look at countries like Japan, they’re near zero. If you look at Germany--another, you know, highly-rated, large issuer--you know, their 10-year treasury yields are somewhere between a quarter-of-a-percent and half-a-percent.

So given that wide gap, and as long as international yields stay relatively low, we think it’s going to be difficult for domestic yields to rise much further because we think demand would be pretty strong if they did continue to move up a little bit.
 
bulogna

bulogna

Forumer storico
Peco ha scritto:
Ciao wallner, oggi ho letto questi interessanti commenti riguardo i rendimenti

KATHY JONES: The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates for the past couple of years, and it looks like they’re signaling that they’re going to continue to raise them over the next year or so, and yet what we’ve seen recently is that longer-term treasury bond yields haven’t been rising as much. The 10-year treasury yield is getting stuck right around the 2.8 to 3% area for most of this year, which raises the question of: Just how high will yields go for bonds in this cycle? I’m Kathy Jones, and this is Bond Market Today. I’m joined by my colleague, Collin Martin, and we’re going to talk about this idea of just how high bond yields might go in this cycle. So what’s your take on it?

COLLIN MARTIN: Well, one thing we look at is the relationship between 10-year treasury yields and the Fed Funds Rate because we found that over time, 10-year treasury yields tend to peak close to wherever the Fed Funds Rate peaks. So we’re looking at FOMC projections to kind of see where are they going to stop hiking rates--and based on the most recent projections, it looks like the Fed Funds Rate will probably get to the 3.0, 3.25, maybe 3.5% area. So, given that 10-year treasury yields are a little below 3% right now, that offers some upside, but not as much as a lot of investors might be expecting.

KATHY: Yeah, and based on history, then, that might be why the move-up in yields is kind of slowing down.

You know, the other thing I think that’s in here is inflation expectation. So we’ve seen inflation steadily kind of picking up towards that 2%, 2.5% region that the Fed has been targeting, but it’s been a pretty slow move. And when we look at where expectations for inflation are, they’re not much higher than this for the longer term. If you look at the implied inflation in the TIPS breakeven market or some of the survey-based inflation measures, 2 to 2.5% is about where they’re resting. So I think that might be a component in this, as well.And the other thing is, of course, global yields, right? Those are still low.

COLLIN: That’s right. Even though we have a seen a move-up in US yields, they now offer a pretty large yield advantage relative to a lot of other developed market government bond yields. So, again, 10-year treasury yields are close to the 3% area right now. If you look at countries like Japan, they’re near zero. If you look at Germany--another, you know, highly-rated, large issuer--you know, their 10-year treasury yields are somewhere between a quarter-of-a-percent and half-a-percent.

So given that wide gap, and as long as international yields stay relatively low, we think it’s going to be difficult for domestic yields to rise much further because we think demand would be pretty strong if they did continue to move up a little bit.
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Quindi a detta di questi, la fed sta alzando i tassi in maniera non correlata alla situazione finanziaria interna e mondiale.
 

zitto-ma-dritto

Nuovo forumer
Peco ha scritto:
Grazie Fabrizio,
sarà interessante vedere come risponderanno gli investitori a questa nuova offerta di pref. Non ci sarà concorrenza tra collocatori, un solo agente di collocamento che paga le nuove azioni da distribuire $ 22,50, cercherà di massimizzare il profitto vendendo senza fretta.
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Liquidate a 26,5 certo (?) dell'imminente appiattimento sui 25 già verificatosi in situazioni analoghe sullo stesso emittente.
 
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