Commodities KC Arabica Coffee C (1 Viewer)

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
è salito in scia al minirally del crudo , ora il ritraccio di tutte le mp e la forza del $ dovrebbero fargli perdere qualcosa, per ora regge perchè oggi c'è da regolare scadenza opzioni
un pò di notizie sparse:
Costa Rican plantations in the key Central Valley growing region near the
Poas Volcano were damaged in landslides that followed Thursday's 6.1-magnitude
earthquake.

"We have been told a number of coffee farms were affected by the landslide
and that trees came down with the mud, but at this point we don't believe
damage to the actual coffee was very big," said Francisco Ruiz from Cafe
Montana. The Central Valley accounts for about 15% of Costa Rica's production.
The Costa Rican Red Cross said Friday the death toll had risen to 14 from the
quake and that rescue workers were still looking for survivors.

The Brazilian census bureau, IBGE, Thursday released a new-crop estimate of
39.2 million bags, which compares with Conab's forecast of 36.9 to 38.8 million
bags and trade ideas of 40 to 42 million.

Colombia's coffee production from December 2007 through November 2008 was
down 6.4% on the year.

A New York desk manager said "merchants talk of looking for specialty types
and better grades of coffee throughout Central America and coming up empty."

In a 2009 outlook this week, Deutsche Bank said: "We believe that agriculture
is one of the most cheaply priced of the five broad commodity sectors."
 

Adrin

Forumer attivo
Strano, pensavo anche io che scendesse ed invece regge. Se i mercati continuono a vacillare non potrà più resistere a questi livelli. Ha perso pochissimo rispetto alle altre materie prime. In tutti i casi la mie è una intuizione, niente di scientifico. :)
 

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
infatti sta facendo meglio insieme a un pò tutto il comparto soft commodities, specie il cacao quotato a Londra

DJ ICE Coffee Review: Climbs As Stops Sparked Overhead
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Arabica coffee prices reached 2 1/2-month highs Thursday on ICE Futures U.S.
as speculative buying pushed into overhead stops while the dollar lost ground.
The ICE market recovered from several setbacks during the session in active
futures volume.

The March contract settled up 190 points at $1.1945 a pound, with May gaining
195 points to $1.2155.

"Speculators were buying and managed to lift March through $1.20, hoping to
reach $1.2115," a New York desk trader said. Weakness in the Dow Jones
Industrials, crude oil and other commodities put a lid on the ICE market's
gains, however, he said.

ICE futures volume at 1:30 p.m. EST was estimated at 31,810 lots, and in
options 3,448 calls and 7,990 puts traded, the exchange said.

At midmorning, a New York desk manager said "we rallied up to resistance,
where some of the longs took profits. I wouldn't say the market failed this
morning. We've got some positive aspects, like the premiums for Colombian
milds, and I look for higher prices on ICE." ICE values rebounded after a
morning sell-off.

Colombian coffee has been slow to move to market because of internal transit
problems and withholding of beans, and that has driven up Central American
prices. Coffee from top arabica grower Brazil and leading robusta producer
Vietnam is readily available after huge harvests in both nations, however.

Meanwhile, the desk trader cautioned that "the economic recession is hurting
retail demand, especially on the high end."

Brazil from Jan. 1-21 exported 1,201,544 60-kilogram bags, versus 1,673,515
in the same December span, the Green Coffee Exporters Council said.

Vietnam exported about 239,000 tons from October to January, down 40% on the
year, the General Statistics Office estimated. In January, Vietnam should ship
140,000 tons, down 18.8% on the year and valued at $311 million. The nation's
growers, however, recently finished picking a larger crop, seen at 1.2 million
tons, versus one million tons last year, traders said.

Funds will exit from or roll out of ICE March before the notice period kicks
off Feb. 19.

ICE March finds support at $1.1755-$1.1750, $1.1740, $1.1720, $1.1710 and
$1.17, with resistance at $1.2040- $1.2045, $1.2050, $1.2075, $1.2090, $1.21
and $1.2115.


ICE Change Range at 2:45pm ET Liffe Change
Mar 119.45 up 1.90 117.55-120.40 Jan 1695 up 27
May 121.55 up 1.95 119.50-122.50 Mar 1708 up 28
 

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
arrivato su un supporto importante

1236096157kc.png


DJ ICE Coffee Review: Sinks As Stocks Drop, US Dlr Strengthens
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--More than decade-low drops in equities levels and a
firmer U.S. dollar slammed ICE Futures U.S. arabica coffee to nearly two-month
lows Monday as widespread bearishness led to broad selling.

Most-active May coffee futures settled down 620 points at $1.0570 a pound.
The nearby March contract settled 590 points lower at $1.0355.

May coffee opened weaker and made a failed attempt to trade in positive
territory in early dealings. Futures slid back from the $1.1155 intraday high
basis March and traded sideways to lower, finding support at $1.0750 basis May.
Coffee briefly trimmed losses on short covering, but fell back into the end of
the session. May scrapped the $1.0550 level, just above the Dec. 5 contract low
of $1.05. The market pared losses modestly again, but settled sharply lower on
the day.

"If the stock market continues to have trouble, we could should go down to
the 1.05 [level basis May]," said Sterling Smith, vice president at FuturesOne
in Chicago.

May futures will slide back into the $1.05-$1.26 range if they can hold $1.05
support, said Jimmy Tintle, analyst at Transworld Futures in Tampa. However,
the most-active contract faces a drop to the $1 level if outside weakness
continues to pressure the market, Tintle said. More broad-based losses are
likely Tuesday, he said.

Drought in many Western Hemisphere coffee-growing regions provides underlying
fundamental support to ICE coffee, Tintle said. When broad-based selling lets
up, weather is likely to be the key indicator of coffee direction, he said.

ICE coffee warehouse stocks decreased by 6,150 60-kilogram bags Friday to
total 4.163 million bags, according to exchange data.

ICE coffee open interest increased by 1,084 lots Friday to total 124,939
lots, according to exchange data.

Volume was estimated at 24,989 lots, according to exchange data.
Approximately 4,410 call options and 2,353 puts traded.
 

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
il KC sta tornando sui massimi relativi, la notizia è che il raccolto colombiano è stato rivisto ancora al ribasso , in più c'è anche la mosca Broca a far danni

"Colombia is also battling the crop pest broca, with National Federation of
Coffee Growers, or Fedecafe, officials there calling it the worst outbreak in
its history. Producers are worried that the infestation could cut into an
already short crop, which is estimated at 8.3 million bags in 2009. Fedecafe
earlier this month cut its output forecast for the fifth time from an original
estimate of 12.1 million bags.
Broca is a small fly that damages the coffee cherry and makes the beans unfit
for consumption. Infestation rates have been reported as high as 38%, while
rates normally average 1% to 2%."

1259684570kc.png
 

Netzach

Forumer storico
il KC sta tornando sui massimi relativi, la notizia è che il raccolto colombiano è stato rivisto ancora al ribasso , in più c'è anche la mosca Broca a far danni

"Colombia is also battling the crop pest broca, with National Federation of
Coffee Growers, or Fedecafe, officials there calling it the worst outbreak in
its history. Producers are worried that the infestation could cut into an
already short crop, which is estimated at 8.3 million bags in 2009. Fedecafe
earlier this month cut its output forecast for the fifth time from an original
estimate of 12.1 million bags.
Broca is a small fly that damages the coffee cherry and makes the beans unfit
for consumption. Infestation rates have been reported as high as 38%, while
rates normally average 1% to 2%."

1259684570kc.png


Hypothenemus hampei fa molti danni, stanno lavorando sia sulla resistenza genetica che sulla lotta guidata e biologica.
 

shabib

Forumer storico
Hypothenemus hampei fa molti danni, stanno lavorando sia sulla resistenza genetica che sulla lotta guidata e biologica.

proprio vero che non si finisce mai di imparare :eek: sapevo dei parassiti del caffe' e del male che fanno alle piantagioni , ma grazie a NETZACH :up: , adesso so che quel parassita non solo manda in malora i raccolti di caffe' ma e' pericolosissimo per la salute in quanto favorisce la presenza di una grave tossina nei chicchi di caffe' che non va via neanche dopo la tostatura....:wall:

thanks :up:

'ocra-tossina A'

Ocratossina A - Wikipedia

L'ocratossina A può provocare danni all'intero organismo, essendo capace di legarsi alle siero-albumine del sangue: tale interazione è rsponsabile della diffusione sistemica della tossina. L'ocratossina è un composto particolarmente stabile, in grado di resistere alle condizioni più estreme: si ritrova nel caffè anche dopo la tostatura ed è in grado di resistere a lungo ai normali processi metabolici. Solo i ruminanti sono in grado di degradarla rapidamente ad ocratossina alpha, un derivato molto meno tossico, privo del gruppo fenilalaninico, grazie all'azione della loro flora batterica.
 

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
toh hanno beccato uno che ha cercato di manipolare il robusta coffee del LIFFE

FSA fines, bans commodity broker for market abuse


Wed Jun 2, 2010 2:33pm EDT










LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's financial regulator has fined a former Sucden Financial broker 100,000 pounds ($146,400) for market abuse and banned him from the industry, in the first FSA action for market abuse in commodities.
The Financial Services Authority (FSA) took the action after the broker tried to manipulate the market in Liffe-traded coffee futures on behalf of a client.
The body said commodity broker Andrew Charles Kerr, implementing a plan developed with his unnamed client, executed trades during a key period of trading to artificially boost the price of coffee futures.
Kerr's client did not make the intended profit, the FSA said.
"This fine and the ban from working in the financial services industry are significant penalties and should serve as a reminder to all that market manipulation will not be tolerated regardless of whether any profit was made," said Alexander Justham, director of markets at the FSA.
In its final notice, the FSA said the market manipulation was planned over a series of recorded telephone conversations between the two parties involved.
The FSA did not name "Client A" -- the instigator of the market manipulation -- describing them as a "speculative market participant," who Kerr had assisted and encouraged. However, the body also said Client A's behavior was more egregious than that of Kerr.
"He (Kerr) is a former employee and there hasn't been any criticism leveled at our internal controls," said Michael Overlander, CEO of Sucden Financial.
"The FSA acknowledged that we have cooperated fully in their investigation," he added.
A coffee future gives the buyer/seller the obligation to receive/deliver a specified amount of LIFFE deliverable Robusta coffee in a specified period (the delivery month).
The contract is priced in US dollars and the minimum tick size (the minimum increment by which LIFFE permits a futures contract to rise or fall in price) is $1 per ton.
Speculative market participants, such as Client A, seek to make a profit from changes in the price of coffee. They have no interest in taking delivery of the underlying product, the FSA said.
The FSA said Kerr encouraged market manipulation and benefited through his commission on the trades. He also provided false and misleading information during the regulator's investigation, the FSA said.
The regulator said all firms involved cooperated fully with the FSA. Kerr, who agreed to settle the case, was suspended by Sucden pending the investigation and has since resigned.
MORE ACTION
Anthony Belchambers, chief executive of the Futures and Options Association, a derivatives industry lobby, said: "The FSA has signaled on several occasions that it will be taking enforcement more seriously."
"It will come as no surprise if we see more disciplinary action across commodities as time goes on."
Another senior industry source said the FSA was emulating the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
"The FSA is sending out a clear message -- manipulation of the market will not be allowed and will be quite severely reprimanded," the source added.
The CFTC is aiming to rein in speculation in energy and commodity trading. For a selection of stories on this, click on:
But the FSA pointed out that speculative traders have an important role in providing liquidity in the market.
Dealers said they were shocked at the FSA action.
"In days gone by people would have got away with it. It shows that they're serious in their intent to crack down on market manipulation," said a London-based broker. "It's a hefty fine for very little gain," he added.
($1=.6831 Pound)
(Editing by Sue Thomas)
 

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
rally time e massimo degli ultimi due anni

1276626111kcu0vsreal.png


ICE Coffee Futures Hit Two-Year High

EDT [Dow Jones] - ICE coffee is still building on its recent strength,
with nearby futures hitting a two-year high, even though much of the recent
buying to cover short positions is thought to have run its course. "At this
point, origin is not stepping in and selling aggressively," says Marcio
Bernardo, analyst with Newedge, in reference to producers. "So that is helping
the market at least hold around here." Coffee started the day lower but has
since recovered on the heels of stronger equities and strength in crude oil and
a number of other commodities, says Boyd Cruel, senior softs analyst with
Vision Financial Markets in Chicago. He cautions, however, that origin selling
could emerge if coffee should appear to forming a top above the $1.50 area.
Nearby July coffee is 7.05 cents higher at $1.5800 a pound, while September
gained 6.45 cents to $1.5805. July hit a two-year high of $1.5880 a pound.
 

Fleursdumal

फूल की बुराई
Dopo la grande cavalcata sino alla soglia dei 200cents il caffè non è riuscito a sostenersi ad alta quota e son fioccate le vendite

COFFEE Dec'10 Chart | Food/Fiber/Softs Market | FutureSource.com
fs2spon




a seguire un superbo punto sul momento del mercato da parte di Rodrigo Costa presente sul forum ameriano, tana dei trader del coffee The Coffee Traders Forum

Flowers, age of certs and options
Monday, October 04, 2010

Commodity markets were very volatile at the end of 3Q, on what seemed to be fund profit-taking,
especially for the softs. The quarter though was very positive if one looks back at the beginning
of the period when both equities and commodity indices were trading at 2010 lows. Three months
later the CRB is up 10.96% and the S&P 10.77% higher. The greenback on the other hand lost 11.40%
against the Euro, and the Dollar Index is down by 8.49% during the same period.
US personal income and spending last week came a little higher than expected, as the pending home
sales also rose more in August than forecasted, but the quick reversal of US dollar today, with
the newswires appointing to lower risk appetite, pushed lower several asset classes.
The coffee market was not able to sustain at US$ 190.00 cents, the upper part of the range I
suggested on our last report, as it encountered commercial selling that later called speculators
to liquidate part of their longs. With the weather being regular in the major origin, pictures of
flowering started to flow at everyone’s e-mail – making some traders bearish.

Technical Focus: The sudden hike and fall of the “C”, which broke the 180cts and traded close to
170cts, does not give much courage for bulls. Technically if prices dive below 170.00 more stops
will be triggered, and we could se a much bigger chunk of longs being dumped. NY needs to
consolidate above 170.00 and recover above US$ 173.70 cts, otherwise the 50% retracement at
165.95 will be the next target. LIFFE does not look good either, and even though funds are not as
long there as they are on ICE, if November breaks below 1600, and even more important 1570,
prices could test 1490. A move above 1668 could calm down bears.

Fundamental Focus: The broad-range that the coffee market traded in the past sessions was useful
to point where commercials are “parked” at, as they decided to participate on the selling near
190.00 and on the buying near 170.00. As rains reached the entire coffee belt in Brazil, in very
good volume and pace, the trees “woke up” and buds and flowers can now be seen in the South of
Minas and other areas. So, if there was still any “weather premium” it is now gone, even though
excessive rains in Central America and Colombia might have caused fungus and potential (small)
losses. The market right now perceives that the flowering is negative, and for the despair of
the origins that were not able to take advantage of higher prices, funds are still holding a
sizeable long position that could add more selling pressure in the market.
Bulls argue that the industry will provide support, which might be partially true. Why partially?
Because of the reason we mentioned here last week: roasters have seen higher prices, and now that
we are reaching the end of the off-peak period, why would they rush? There were rumors that I new
turn of price increases of roasted-andground was being prepared, so maybe it could be set aside
for awhile, as well as the flat-price coverage.
Differentials for mild-beans have not eased further, but neither firmed with the collapse of the
board. Brazil certainly will be out of the market for a while, as they sold quite a bit and may
now allow them to seat on the sidelines. A weaker future-market nominally firms up
natural-differentials, which could turn to be positive down the road, as ICE certified stocks
become (more) attractive again. Talking about it, last week the exchange released for the first
time the age of the inventory. According to the data, on December 1st 2010 the 1,959,146 bags
will have on average 871.78 days, and US$ 13.91 cents of aging-penalty. Once more this is the
average, but one should not forget that coffee with 30 cents of more of discount can be found. I
got an e-mail from a contributor complaining about the data, mentioning that it is not precise as
there is a good chunk of re-certification that has made part of the coffee “younger”. Well,
according to the rules, to pass the grading test the coffee has to be “greenish”, so…
Back to Brazil, the government announced that it will auction the remaining of the official
inventory of coffee from 1987 to 1999 crops – about 480K bags. Only the local roasters will be
given the right to buy it, and according to the announcement it will be spread out not to impact
prices. There goes the last bag bought by the instinct IBC (Brazilian Institute of Coffee). Bears
argue that even the government wants to take advantage of the current high prices.
On the robusta side we hear that the Vietnamese crop might be as high as 20.5 mln bags, 2 mln
bags more than official sources. London led the price fall in the coffee World yesterday, would
that be the reason?
New York is in very dangerous territory as there are 7,565 lots of the 170 put opened, between
November and December expiration. After that the biggest OI is on the 150.00 strike, where very
few players believe the market could go (how many thought NY could trade at 198.00 in
September?).
Maybe the 170/190 range could have been wrongly predicted and the lower boundary might be pushed
a little lower – US$ 160.00?
I am traveling tomorrow to Switzerland to visit some customers and attend Friday’s Coffee Dinner.
If someone has an opening for a visit please just let me know.
Have a good week and good trades.

The Conclusion
NY failed to sustain above US$ 190.00 cents and not even the weakness of the US dollar was able
to provide support for prices after pictures with flowering hit the inbox of market participants.
With a higher forecasted Vietnamese crop, some say above 20 mln bags, and a weak technical
picture, London collapsed today taking NY down just when of the options-pit was opening.
The wide range of the past 5 sessions was useful to uncover commercial activity at the extreme
points, and while bulls argue that more roasters buying underneath will provide support, bears
say that a new rally will find more origins willing to hammer the market.
On the downside the danger lies on the size of the open interest of the 170 strike, which could
provoke a new wave of selling. Also the new that just came out regarding higher taxation on
fixed-income investments for non-Brazilian residents, could reverse the rally of the Real. The
finance minister doubled the tax from 2% to 4% in an attempt to contain the Brazilian Real
appreciation.

Best Regards,
Rodrigo Costa
[email protected]
 

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