Journal to portfolio afterlife (14 lettori)

portfolioafterlife

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“The biggest problem with Wall Street, both today and in the past, is the consistent disregard of the possibilities for unexpected, random events. In a 2010 study, by the McKinsey Group, they found that analysts have been persistently overly optimistic for 25 years. During the 25-year time frame, Wall Street analysts pegged earnings growth at 10-12% a year when in reality earnings grew at 6% which, as we have discussed in the past, is the growth rate of the economy.

This is why using forward earnings estimates as a valuation metric is so incredibly flawed – as the estimates are always overly optimistic roughly 33% on average.” – The Problem With Wall Street Forecasts
Despite economic growth weakening as inflation increases, liquidity reducing, and profit margins under pressure, analysts continue increasing their earnings estimates. Currently, estimates for the Q4-2022 are $219.87/share according to S&P, up from $207/share at the end of 2021. As shown, that level will exceed the historical 6% exponential growth trend, which contained earnings growth since 1950, by the most significant deviation ever.
SP500-Earnings-Actuial-Projected-Growth-Trend-020622.png


 

portfolioafterlife

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For the first time in history, the US is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once:
  1. High government debt to GDP like the post-war 1940s
  2. Excessive stock market valuation on par with 1929 & 2000 bubbles
  3. A resource-driven inflationary crisis environment comparable to the 1970s
Debt-Valuation.jpg


Global long-term rates, particularly among developed economies, are starting to rise and marking a critical increase in the cost of capital. See below the outstanding value of negative yielding bonds worldwide has been shrinking massively. From over $18 trillion at its peak to $4 trillion today.
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If we invert Professor Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) and subtract by inflation rates, today we have the lowest yields in 75 years.
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Gold performed well in December and has been going up in February month to date at same time as stocks have been falling.
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portfolioafterlife

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Una raccolta di risorse che criticano il mondo web3, di Mr.RIP.

 

portfolioafterlife

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But if you are in the arena, it’s better to prepare for problems, expect that your portfolio will occasionally be ‘stormed,’ and get used to such storms. Any market crash won’t feel scary then, just because you would start accepting that as an integral part of your journey of wealth creation.
The secret of investing is that there is no secret. It’s staying the course.
 

portfolioafterlife

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Come si fa a non essere d'accordo...

Labor will never catch up with capital. Rising wages are necessary but not sufficient. The gap will keep getting wider.
Technology accelerates the widening of the gap between the returns to capital and the returns to labor. Successful technology companies can reach global audiences at miniscule marginal costs with dramatic returns to scale. There’s no putting the genie back in the bottle, and any policy that seeks to do so will just limit upside or push the winners and their money abroad.
La tokenizzazione come micro-proprietà e venture capital ?

One of the things that web3 is best at is doing what withco does – remove platform risk and push ownership and upside to the edges – on a much wider range of assets and transaction sizes. It makes it possible to reward people with ownership for even microinteractions.
People should be able to own and monetize their own data. They should be rewarded for their attention. They should be able to be rewarded for backing the right projects early, whether with their dollars or their activity, like venture capitalists are.
 

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