Journal to portfolio afterlife (13 lettori)

portfolioafterlife

too fast for love
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13 Dicembre 2021
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For the past decade, many investors have been living in the Matrix. Buoyed by extensive quantitative easing and overseas production, their portfolios have ballooned.
Unfortunately for them, this is the real world – and inflation is the blue pill.
A return to the real world – a place where asset prices and value creation move together – is not so bad. In this article, I will try to explain why.
To make navigating this article easier, let me provide a brief outline:
  • First, I’ll talk about how money printing manifests in the economy.
  • Second, I’ll describe conditions when money printing does – and doesn’t – create inflation.
  • Third, having shown how inflation is caused by a gap between money creation and value creation, I’ll explore how various government measures impact our current situation.
  • Fourth, I’ll examine quantitative easing and illustrate its effect on asset prices.
  • Fifth, I’ll explain my predictions for asset markets, and discuss the role of supply shocks (and why inflation has remained in check until recently).
  • Finally, I’ll conclude by reframing our collective moment in time.
 

portfolioafterlife

too fast for love
Registrato
13 Dicembre 2021
Messaggi
7.434

portfolioafterlife

too fast for love
Registrato
13 Dicembre 2021
Messaggi
7.434
Many investors have traditionally considered gold to be a “safe haven” asset, expected to maintain or increase its value during equity and bond drawdowns. Gold did provide positive returns in seven of the eight equity drawdowns, providing an annualized return of 9 percent. However, outside of those eight drawdown periods, gold provided negative returns on average, resulting in a full-period return that was only marginally better than a flat nominal return. The authors also found that gold’s hedging abilities during the three recessions were marginal, with positive returns recorded in two of the three.
In their 2012 study, “The Golden Dilemma,” Claude Erb and Campbell Harvey found that 17 percent of monthly stock returns fell into the category where gold was falling at the same time stocks were posting negative returns. If gold acts as a true safe haven, then we would expect very few, if any, such observations. Still, 83 percent of the time on the right side isn’t a bad record. However, they also found that gold was a very unreliable inflation hedge unless your time frame was in centuries, not years, or even decades.
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The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect management or trading fees, and one cannot invest directly in an index.
 

portfolioafterlife

too fast for love
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13 Dicembre 2021
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The overwhelming body of evidence demonstrates that active investing, whether in mutual funds or hedge funds, has been a loser’s game. It’s a game that is possible to win but whose odds are so poor it’s not prudent to try. One reason for this is that the markets are highly (though not perfectly) efficient. Another is that the evidence demonstrates that success in generating alpha contains the seeds of its own destruction: fund flows, which are negatively related to the ability to generate alpha, follow performance.
 

captain sparrow

Forumer storico
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1 Febbraio 2013
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6.420
Zelensky ha provato a chiedersi, e cito le sue parole, come mai hanno questo atteggiamento i " forti del mondo"?

il Zalensky ormai non chiede. Ordina e pretende. per lui il mondo dovrebbe scatenare una guerra mondiale
 

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