ETF Ishares Msci Turkey (1 Viewer)

[IlPorcospino]

Lunedì 14 marzo 2011
Centinaia di migliaia di persone sono scese in piazza in alcune delle principali città della Turchia (Instanbul e Ankara su tutti) per protestare contro la scarsa libertà di informazione che vige nell’intero Paese.
I manifestanti chiedono un cambiamento reale, a cominciare dalla liberazione dei 68 cittadini arrestati negli ultimi anni con l’accusa di appartenere al partito di opposizione Ergenekon, sciolto recentemente perché considerato sovversivo. Il partito Akp, al governo dal 2003, ha predisposto ingenti misure di sicurezza soprattutto ad Instanbul, una delle città più popolose e più vive d’Europa e del mondo. “I giornalisti oggi marciano per difendere i loro diritti personali di dipendenti – commenta Ercan Ipekci, portavoce e leader del Movimento per la Libertà dei Giornalisti – e il sacrosanto diritto del popolo a essere informato”. “La voce del popolo è limitata – continua Ipekci – e il diritto a essere informati viene continuamente negato”. La protesta segue un filone di manifestazioni quasi continuo, che dura ormai dalla scorsa estate. Il premier Erdogan ha applaudito le rivolte nord africane ma non ha fatto niente di nuovo per migliorare le condizioni della popolazione turca. La Turchia è un Paese in ascesa e in mancanza di riforme strutturali in tempi rapidi sarà la necessità stessa della storia e dell’economia a rovesciare il cosiddetto “fascismo islamico”.

 

[IlPorcospino]

Martedì 15 marzo 2011

Turkey’s February budget produced a surplus of 988 million liras ($627 million), after a deficit of 2.3 billion liras a year earlier, as the cost of supporting the health and pensions systems fell, the Finance Ministry said.
Excluding interest payments on debt, the budget produced a surplus of 7.2 billion liras, compared with a surplus of 2.3 billion liras a year earlier, the ministry in Ankara said in a statement on its website today. The cumulative ex-interest surplus in the first two months was 12 billion liras, or 86 percent of the full-year target, it said.
The government is aiming for a budget deficit of 33.5 billion liras this year, or about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, after beating its budget goals in 2010. The economy probably grew more than 8 percent last year, faster than the revised estimate of 6.8 percent, according to officials including central bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz.
Tax revenue climbed 31 percent to 21.1 billion liras in February from a year earlier.
Non-interest spending declined 1.8 percent from a year earlier, helped by a drop in budget transfers to the health and pensions system, the ministry said. Spending on interest rose 35 percent.

 

[IlPorcospino]

Martedì 15 marzo 2011

Turkey’s February budget produced a surplus of 988 million liras ($627 million), after a deficit of 2.3 billion liras a year earlier, as the cost of supporting the health and pensions systems fell, the Finance Ministry said.
Excluding interest payments on debt, the budget produced a surplus of 7.2 billion liras, compared with a surplus of 2.3 billion liras a year earlier, the ministry in Ankara said in a statement on its website today. The cumulative ex-interest surplus in the first two months was 12 billion liras, or 86 percent of the full-year target, it said.
The government is aiming for a budget deficit of 33.5 billion liras this year, or about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, after beating its budget goals in 2010. The economy probably grew more than 8 percent last year, faster than the revised estimate of 6.8 percent, according to officials including central bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz.
Tax revenue climbed 31 percent to 21.1 billion liras in February from a year earlier.
Non-interest spending declined 1.8 percent from a year earlier, helped by a drop in budget transfers to the health and pensions system, the ministry said. Spending on interest rose 35 percent.

 

[IlPorcospino]

Japanese Redemptions May Quicken Rand’s Drop, Push Lira Lower, SocGen Says
By Jack Jordan - Mar 16, 2011
Emerging-market currencies from South Africa to Turkey are falling on concern Japanese families will sell developing-country local bonds to fund the rebuilding of homes wrecked by the nation’s strongest earthquake.
South Africa’s rand, the worst-performing emerging-market currency this year, will decline another 5 percent against the dollar following its biggest slump in 10 months yesterday as the Japanese unload their Eurobond holdings, Societe Generale SA says. The lira will slide to the weakest level since May, according to Guillaume Salomon, an emerging-market strategist at the Paris-based bank.
Japanese investors own about $3.9 billion of rand-based Eurobonds, known as uridashi, more than the $3 billion of Brazilian reais and $765 million in Turkish lira, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Japan’s mutual funds held 2.8 trillion yen ($34.6 billion) in Brazilian stocks and bonds as their fourth-largest foreign assets, leaving the real among the most “vulnerable” during the selloff, HSBC Holdings Plc said.
“When you’ve got a crisis like this, the initial reaction is shock, then people have got to access their cash and start rebuilding their homes,” Guillaume Salomon, an emerging-market strategist at Paris-based Societe Generale, said in a phone interview yesterday. “What we’re going to see is a reduction of emerging-market portfolios as people are putting money back into Japan.”

The rand depreciated 0.4 percent to 7.0152 per dollar as of 12:28 p.m. in Johannesburg today, extending this year’s slide to 5.5 percent. The lira fell 0.4 percent to 1.5858 per dollar today, and may weaken as much as 2.1 percent to 1.62 per dollar over the next few days, Salomon said. The real fell 0.3 percent to 1.6653 per dollar.

Investors in Japan have been buying bonds issued in the higher-yielding emerging-market currencies for the past five years lured by yields as high as 9 percent, Salomon said. Japan’s main central bank rate is between zero and 0.1 percent, compared with 11.75 in Brazil and 6.25 percent in Turkey. South Africa cut its main borrowing rate to 5.5 percent last year from 12 percent in 2008.

The real and the Australian dollar are the “most vulnerable” currencies and are likely to fall against the Swiss franc and Norwegian krone, David Bloom, global head of foreign- exchange strategy at HSBC in London, wrote in a note to clients, citing data from Japan’s Investment Trust Association.

“The flow could be most dramatic for the Australian dollar and Brazilian real,” Bloom wrote.

Brazil Tax ‘Disincentive’
The Australian dollar lost 0.1 percent versus the yen today, extending this week’s loss to 3.6 percent.
Japanese investors may keep their funds in Brazil because the 6 percent tax the South American country charges on foreigners creates a “disincentive” for them to move capital in and out of the market often, according to Bank of America Corp.
“We believe that the repatriation Japanese investment is unlikely to prompt a major unwinding of recent allocations to Brazil,” Analysts Virgilio Castro Cunha and David Beker wrote in a note to clients yesterday. “Japanese investors are likely to turn to other investments before pulling money out of Brazil.”
South Africa’s currency will decline the most because the biggest increase in uridashi issuance has been in rand, according to Salomon. About $633 million of rand-denominated uridashi bonds have been issued in the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bond Yields
Yields on South Africa’s 13.5 percent government bonds due 2015 rose 2 basis points to 7.825 percent today after reaching a high this year of 7.951 percent on March 8, according to prices on Bloomberg. Turkish benchmark five-year lira bond yields increased 3 basis points to 9.25 percent today, according to the RBS Istanbul 5-Year Bond Index. Brazil’s inflation adjusted interest-rates are the second highest in the world after Croatia, according to data compiled Bloomberg.

Even before the quake, Japanese families were already dipping into their reserves as the economy shrank an annualized 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Household hesokuri, or “secret savings,” fell 18 percent in 2010 to the lowest in three years.

“Rich natural resources and publicity around the 2010 football World Cup” last year “have pushed rand bonds to stardom in Japan,” Salomon wrote. “We are now concerned about disinvestments from these positions.”

 

[IlPorcospino]

Aggiornamento sull'etf Turchia in mio ptf

Come si vede, purtroppo, la svalutazione del try sta rendendo vano il recupero dell'indice ISE. Il fatto che l'indice cresce, è molto positivo; ma avremmo bisogna di una bella rivalutazione del try che dipende dalla politica della banca centrale turca. Speriamo.

 

[IlPorcospino]

Turkey May Lose $9 Billion of Business in Libya, Milliyet Says
By Mark Bentley - Mar 22, 2011
Turkish companies had $9 billion of orders in Libya over the next two to three years and may lose the business due to the military intervention there, Milliyet said citing Ersin Takla, head of a Turkish-Libyan business group.
Libya had invited some Turkish firms back to the country after winning battles against opposition forces and they were awaiting confirmation from the government in Turkey that it was safe to return, Takla said, according to the Istanbul-based newspaper.

TURCHIA,SIRIA,LIBANO,GIORDANIA INSIEME PER SVILUPPO ECONOMIA
22 Marzo , 10:18
Incrementare il commercio, gli investimenti e le relazioni economiche fra Turchia, Siria, Libano e Giordania e sviluppare azioni congiunte finalizzate alla creazione di posti di lavoro e all'incremento degli investimenti nei settori del turismo, dell'industria e dell'energia. Sono questi i principali obiettivi dell'accordo siglato tra i Business Council Turco-Libanese, Turco-Giordano e Turco-Siriano che definisce il quadro di riferimento giuridico, ossia lo Statuto, per le attivita' dei tre Consigli di Affari. I Consigli, sottolinea l'Ice di Beirut, si sono dotati di una medesima struttura con un Comitato dei direttori, composto da 16 membri, e di un'Assemblea generale composta da 20 membri suddivisi equamente fra i quattro Paesi partecipanti.(ANSAmed).

 

[IlPorcospino]

Turkey’s Central Bank Leaves Benchmark Rate Unchanged at 6.25%
By Steve Bryant - Mar 23, 2011
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .Turkey’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a second month as it waits to see whether restrictions on bank lending will offset the inflationary effect of rising oil prices.
The central bank in Ankara kept its one-week repo lending rate at a record low of 6.25 percent, according to an e-mailed statement today. That matched the forecast of all nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The bank will release minutes of the meeting within eight working days.
Governor Durmus Yilmaz, who retires April 18, lowered the rate in December and January, at the same time as increasing the reserves banks must set aside against liabilities in a bid to tame a boom in consumer credit. The bank held policy unchanged in February and said rising energy and commodity prices now pose “an additional risk to inflation,” which slowed to a four- decade low of 4.2 percent in February.
The bank “sounds inclined to stay put for one more month to observe the impact of the reserve hikes,” Inan Demir, chief economist for Finansbank AS in Istanbul, said in a telephone interview. “The global backdrop has changed since they began this policy and inflation can only go up from here.”
The central bank in January predicted year-end inflation of 5.9 percent. Higher oil prices, driven by unrest in the Middle East, are likely to drive that forecast higher when the bank reviews its predictions next month, Yilmaz said Feb. 25.

Naming Successor
Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan said Jan. 27 that no successor will be named until Yilmaz’s term ends on April 18 to avoid creating a “lame duck” governor. Whoever takes over will inherit a policy mix that aims to weaken the lira through low rates and limit domestic demand through higher reserve requirements for banks.
A boom in consumer demand has swollen the current-account deficit, which almost doubled in January from a year earlier, and is leading to growth that is “not balanced,” Yilmaz said this month. Turkey’s economy probably grew more than 8 percent last year, according to the International Monetary Fund, helping boost Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s prospects of winning a third term in elections due on June 12.
The policy adopted by Yilmaz in the past three months aims to restrain demand by slowing credit growth. Consumer loans have jumped about 40 percent in the past year, and Babacan says a pace of 25 percent would be healthier.
The central bank has doubled to 12 percent the proportion of short-term liabilities that banks must set aside, and stopped paying interest on the money.

Turkey Yields Rise Most in 16 Months on Rise in Banks’ Reserves
By Aydan Eksin - Mar 23, 2011
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .Turkey’s benchmark bond yields jumped the most in 16 months and stocks slumped after the central bank increased banks’ reserve requirements for the third time since December to stem credit growth.
Yields on benchmark two-year bonds rose as much as 36 basis points to 8.95 percent, the biggest increase since Oct. 26, 2009. Yields rose 30 basis points to 8.89 percent at 4:49 p.m. The main ISE National 100 share index dropped 1.9 percent to 63,648.64, led by banks.
“We should expect substantial pressure on t-bill rates” after the central bank’s decision, Istanbul-based broker Oyak Securities said in an e-mailed report to clients today.
Banks have sold bonds to pay for the higher reserve requirements, with yields rising to as high as 9.11 percent on March 8 from a record low of 6.9 percent in January. Banking stocks have fallen 21 percent from a November high, partly on concern the measure will hurt earnings.
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS (GARAN), part-owned by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA of Spain, dropped 2.4 percent to 7.42 liras. Akbank TAS declined 2.6 percent to 7.46 liras.
The central bank today increased the reserve requirements to 15 percent for lira deposits of less than one month from as low as 10 percent. The measures, which include higher reserves for all lira deposits of less than a year, will be effective April 15, the bank said in a statement on its Web site.
The measure will drain 19.1 billion liras ($12.2 billion) of liquidity from the market, the central bank said.
Istanbul-based broker Standard Unlu said it may cut estimates for banks earnings per share this year and in 2012 after the increase in reserves. Akbank TAS (AKBNK) is most exposed to government bonds, with half of its interest income coming from the debt, while Yapi & Kredi Bankasi AS is least exposed, it said in an emailed report to investors today.
The central bank also left the benchmark one-week repo lending rate unchanged for a second month. It had cut the rate by a total of 0.75 percentage points in December and January to help curb foreign capital inflows that had brought gains for the lira and made exports less competitive in terms of price.

 

[IlPorcospino]

FORUM UE SU INVESTIMENTI IN TURCHIA E PARTNERSHIP ORIENTALE
23 Marzo , 13:51
BRUXELLES - Promuovere e facilitare gli investimenti e la cooperazione economica tra i Paesi della Ue, la Turchia e i sei stati della partnership orientale: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. E' l'obiettivo del programma di investimenti la cui conferenza si terra' a Bruxelles dal 30 marzo al primo aprile.
All'evento prenderanno parte numerose organizzazioni per lo sviluppo economico e piccole e medie imprese. Saranno valutate strategie per facilitare gli investimenti e individuare i settori dove attuarli. (ANSAmed).

 

[ibbius]

Questo ETF è una disgrazia.
Spero in un miglioramento importante prima dell'estate.

 

[IlPorcospino]

Questo ETF è una disgrazia.
Spero in un miglioramento importante prima dell'estate.

Ho pianificato la vendita della metà dell'asset in ptf nel secondo Q. Attendo momento migliore per cominciare lo scarico.