Macroeconomia Immobiliare USA (residenziale e commerciale) e finanza strutturata (1 Viewer)

paologorgo

Chapter 11
Registrato
2 Maggio 2004
Messaggi
4.129
Località
Carpi - MO -
REIT earnings season got into full swing last week, but there's a lot more on investors' minds these days that last quarter's earnings. Transaction volume has continued to plunge, and CMBS loans placed in special servicing have continued to rise like a poodle in a jetpack.
This can mean only one thing, and in the words David Hamamoto, CEO of Northstar Realty Finance (NRF), it is that there is a growing backlog of motivated sellers who "will begin to transact later this year and who will establish market pricing as deals are completed." That people will need to sell is not in dispute, but exactly what "market pricing" will be is the $64,000 question.
Globally, commercial real estate sales plummeted more than 70 percent in the first quarter from the end of 2008, according to Real Capital Analytics. In the United States, first quarter sales were not only anemic, they may also be a form of karmic justice to CRE brokers who are now fond of saying that distressed buyers simply 'overleveraged'... Really?

Even apartments, which still enjoy the availability of buyer financing from Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), saw transaction volume fall 62 percent in 2008, and another 86 percent in the first quarter of 2009 alone. With an average of only 50 apartment sales taking place each month across the entire country, it's simply no wonder that pricing is unclear.
What is clear, however, is that prices are dropping. And as prices drop, "overleveraged" buyers, or those who were basically convinced to overpay for their assets, are unable to refinance their loans. CMBS loans placed in "special servicing", which indicates that the borrower is in some form of distress, were dramatically up and to the right at the end of 2008:


Source: Deutsche Bank
This trend accelerated in the first quarter of 2009. CMBS loans in special servicing jumped another 48 percent (as measured by outstanding loan balance), according to Fitch. "Imminent default" was cited as the reason for 73 percent of the special-servicing transfers. Since the end of 2007, the percentage of CMBS loans in special servicing has grown from 0.54 percent to almost 3 percent or outstanding loans.
Nationally, default and delinquency rates for CMBS rose to 1.76%, or $10.7 billion, in the first quarter, up 62 basis points from the previous quarter and more than triple the rate of delinquencies recorded in Q1 2008 (these figures do not include loans associated with the bankruptcy of General Growth Properties (GGP)). According to REIS Inc., the CMBS default rate could reach 6% by year’s end.
The lack of transaction volume and the increasing levels of distress perfectly illustrate the current market quandary: lenders are unwilling to foreclose on properties that cover debt service, albeit barely, and sellers are unwilling to sell properties at what they believe to be artificially low prices driven by unsustainably low availability of debt capital.
This face-off will not last. Banks must clear their balance sheets at the same time that capitalization rates are rising and NOI is dropping. Rising cap rates mean that a buyer of an office building at a 6 cap in a strong market like Washington D.C. is staring at a 30% decline in value, peak to trough, assuming NOI has remained the same (which is almost certainly not the case). Buyers in tertiary markets are in even worse shape.
However, just as the excess of ready and available credit led to unsustainably high asset values in 2005-2007, so will the dearth of ready and available credit lead to unsustainably low asset values in 2010. Not surprisingly, some investors smell opportunity, and they are betting with real money. Publicly traded REITs raised $10.6 billion in equity in the first quarter, including $6.51 billion in April alone. This is a tidal wave of cash, and the Bloomberg REIT stock index rose by 30%.
Nobody ever rings a bell at the bottom of a market, and $10.6 billion says why bother to listen for it now?
Disclosure: Long NRF at the time of publication


http://seekingalpha.com/article/137583-commercial-real-estate-investors-face-pivotal-q4
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
Registrato
2 Maggio 2004
Messaggi
4.129
Località
Carpi - MO -
è più a livello di curiosità che altro, ma si sa mai, magari qualcuno vuole comperare casa a Manhattan... scordatevi l'affarone per foreclosure... (location, location, location...)

Mapping Foreclosures in the New York Region

A New York Times analysis found that foreclosure rates in the region were highest in areas
with high minority populations. Zoom in to see foreclosures at the street level.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/05/15/nyregion/0515-foreclose.html
 

Allegati

Imark

Forumer storico
Registrato
6 Ottobre 2006
Messaggi
16.988
Fitch: U.S. CREL CDO Delinquencies Above 7%

18 May 2009 9:30 AM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-New York-18 May 2009: Over 20 newly delinquent assets led to an increase in U.S. commercial real estate loan (CREL) CDO delinquencies to 7.8% for April 2009, up from 6.5% in March 2009, according to the latest CREL CDO delinquency index (CREL DI) from Fitch Ratings. Fitch currently rates 35 CREL CDOs encompassing approximately 1,100 loans and 370 rated securities/assets with a balance of $23.8 billion.

The CREL DI has now surpassed 7% with over 75% of all Fitch rated CREL CDOs containing at least one delinquent loan. 'At this rate of increase, the delinquencies for CREL CDOs are likely to exceed 15% by the end of this year,' said Senior Director Karen Trebach. Individual CDO delinquency rates ranged from 0% to approximately 24% of the CDO par balance, in the April reporting period.

New delinquencies included an A-note secured by a General Growth Properties, Inc. (GGP) affiliated regional mall. The borrower was listed as a debtor in GGP's April 2009 bankruptcy court filing. Other exposure to GGP in the CREL DI includes seven real estate bank loan interests in seven different CDOs (51 basis points).

On April 16, Fitch downgraded GGP's and GGP's wholly-owned subsidiary The Rouse Company's Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to 'D' with related bank loan facilities and unsecured senior notes affirmed at 'C/RR5', suggesting below average recovery prospects ranging from 11% to 30%.

CREL CDO asset managers continue to trade impaired assets out of CDOs at a discount, including at least eleven credit impaired interests from seven different CDOs. Ten of these assets were sold at prices ranging from 2% to 50% of par while one mezzanine loan was written off as a total loss. Three of these assets were included in last month's CREL DI. Fitch considers all losses to par in its evaluation of the credit enhancement available for each CDO tranche.

29 loans, including one matured balloon, were extended in the April reporting period. Many of these were short term extensions to allow time to negotiate longer term extensions, or pursue refinancing, which in most cases, Fitch expects will be unobtainable.

While whole loans and A-notes comprise the highest percentage of asset type in the CREL DI at 73%, mezzanine debt is the next highest at 13.1%, up from 8% in March 2009. Due to the unsecured nature of mezzanine debt and generally high leverage on these positions, Fitch assumes little to no recoveries in its analysis of these delinquencies.

Loans backed by interests in land represent the highest percentage of assets in the CREL DI at approximately 27.7%. The next highest percentage is multifamily at 23.1%. The CREL DI includes loans that are 60 days or longer delinquent, matured balloon loans, and the current month's repurchased assets.
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Registrato
6 Ottobre 2006
Messaggi
16.988
L'andamento del CRE USA a marzo 2009 nel monitoraggio di Moody's... calano i prezzi ed i volumi ... challenging times ahead, secondo Moody's, come da copione

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's: U.S. Commercial Real Estate Prices Drop 1.7% in March[/FONT]



[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]New York, May 19, 2009 -- Commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) decreased 1.7% in March, leaving the index at 20.8% below its level a year ago and 22.8% below the peak in prices measured in October 2007. Commercial real estate sales volumes were down 75-80% in March, by both count and dollar volume, compared to their levels a year earlier. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's expects continued weakness and possibly further declines in volume in the coming months. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's quarterly indices by property type show national office prices have now fallen 30% from peak levels, after a nearly 20% decline in the first quarter. National retail properties saw values fall 13% in the first quarter, while apartment and industrial prices remained relatively flat. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Among the top-ten metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), retail was the underperformer, with prices falling 14% in the first quarter of 2009. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Western apartment prices saw a slight gain in the first quarter of 2.7%. Office was the hardest hit property type in the West with values falling over 16% in the first quarter, the single largest drop to date for this sector. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's notes that so far this downturn, the top-ten markets have not seen prices fall as much as the nation has overall. Office prices in the top-ten, for example are down 14.3% from their peak, compared to the 30% decline nationally. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The CPPI [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Prices Indices are based on the repeat sales of the same properties across the US at different points in time. Analyzing price changes measured in this way provides maximum transparency and methodological rigor. This approach also circumvents the distortions that can occur with other commercial property value measurements such as appraisals or average prices, says Moody's. [/FONT]

[FONT=verdana,arial,helvetica]The title of this report is "Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices, May 2009." [/FONT]
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
Registrato
2 Maggio 2004
Messaggi
4.129
Località
Carpi - MO -
anche Starbucks vuole pagare meno:

Today's Starbucks Corp. is not the high-flying growth company of five or six years ago. Gone is the escalating stock price, along with the multiplying locations. The Seattle company's downsizing has been well documented, with cuts in everything from staff to retail locations. One upside might be the reductions in rent the company is negotiating with landlords, according to Bloomberg. Starbucks is reportedly looking to negotiate a discount of 20% to 25% in some of its existing leases. In expensive areas such as Manhattan, where average retail space rents for $115 per square foot, according to the Real Estate Board of New York, those possible reductions could be a big cost saver. Overall, those leases would cover some 7,035 locations in the U.S. as of March 29.
What would Starbucks do with the millions it might save in rent? Most likely pile it into a cash cushion, since its revenue has shown signs of weakening. An acquisition may be out of the question right now as any addition may be considered too risky, especially since Moody's Investors Service downgraded Starbucks' debt rating to Baa3, one notch above junk, on May 14.

http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2009/05/starbucks_rent_decreases_wont.php
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
Registrato
2 Maggio 2004
Messaggi
4.129
Località
Carpi - MO -
Finally a market test valuation of Commercial Real Estate, which is not just hype and Merrill Lynch speculations. The Buffalo News reports that REIT Developers Diversified Realty (DDR) is selling back 11 upstate New York shopping malls to the entity it originally purchased them from, Benderson Development Co., at a 30% discount to their 2004 purchase price.

In 2004 DDR acquired 110 properties from Benderson for $2.3 billion, an average price of $21 million, and is now selling back 11 of these for a total price of $160-$175 million, of roughly a $15 million average price, and a 30% discount. Not bad for Benderson which is buying back what it sold 5 years ago at 70 cents on the dollar.

And for all intents and purposes, this transaction was very opportunistic for DDR:
“It’s good that the ownership is going in the direction that it is,” said Michael C. Clark, director of retail tenant services at CB Richard Ellis in Buffalo. “There’s going to be a lot of markets in other parts of the country where they have portfolios for sale by different REITs and they don’t have someone like Benderson to step up.

“We’re pretty fortunate in terms of the market, in regard to that. How much better can you get than the folks that developed them and are intimately familiar with them and live and breathe here? They certainly know what they’re doing,” Clark said.
As Retail Traffic points out, this is very surprising as current estimates have been that retail properties would post at most a 40% decline from peak values achieved in 2007. A 30% discount from a 2004 price implies a significantly higher discount from the peak. RT calculated that the final closing discount from the peak is roughly 50%. As David Bodamer at RT points out:
There are a lot of things we don’t know about these assets. Are they healthy assets or do they need work? What do the current tenant rosters look like? Are the rents at market rates or lower? When do the leases come up for renewal? Did Developers Diversified sell these assets at a deeper discount than is truly reflective of market conditions out of a need to raise cash? Without this information it is hard to draw a full conclusion on what it means for the market. But the fact remains that this represents a massive drop in values from just more than two years ago. And the drop in value is larger than even the most pessimistic estimates have been for the peak-to-trough change in prices for retail real estate.
Notable is that DDR is raising cash in a non-equity offering form. Maybe Merrill has gotten to the saturation point where there is just not enough reverse inquiry into the phenomenally overpriced REITs.
Also, thanks to this market test, one will be able to recalculate what fair Debt-to-Market Value of Assets ratio is for the majority of mall REITs. The result will likely be a dramatic rise from previously consensual ratios, presenting yet another data point indicative of the REITs bloated overvaluations due exclusively to short squeezes.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/142003-ddr-to-sell-malls-at-30-discount-to-2004-prices
 

stockuccio

Guest
oltre che sull'autorevole calculatedrisk, si può fare una capatina ogni tanto anche su http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/blog/
comunque ... prima di smaltire i 3.970.000 di case invendute ad aprile con in vista per giunta il rialzo dei mutui ... campa cavallo
 

paologorgo

Chapter 11
Registrato
2 Maggio 2004
Messaggi
4.129
Località
Carpi - MO -
comunque ... prima di smaltire i 3.970.000 di case invendute ad aprile con in vista per giunta il rialzo dei mutui ... campa cavallo
i primi Chapter 11 di costruttori sono in dirittura di arrivo...

“The filing of our Plan is a major milestone in WCI’s restructuring events and our goal of emerging from chapter 11 in the third quarter of 2009,” said David L. Fry, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer. “Under the Plan, WCI will emerge as a deleveraged lifestyle community developer and land holding company with the flexibility to navigate its business during these unprecedented times and beyond. Consistent with the decision made earlier in the year, the Company intends to continue to suspend all Florida homebuilding new construction activities indefinitely, pending market recovery. However, the Company will continue to complete homes under construction and will continue the ongoing maintenance of our communities and amenities operations.”

http://digital50.com/news/132455

questa era gente che negli anni d'oro...

For over 60 years, WCI has set the standard for building exceptional communities, creating amenities that challenge and exhilarate, while upholding our unwavering commitment to the places we call home. Over 170,000 people since 1946 have put their trust in our company to build not only their homes, but also to build their communities. To accomplish this, we demand the highest quality construction and customer service to ensure The Experience Is Everything for our valued customers.



The ultimate lifestyle experiences await you at more than 30 WCI communities throughout Florida, the Northeast U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic U.S. From the beachfront to the lakeside to the fairways, our vast selection of primary, vacation and retirement homes encompass a broad spectrum of tastes, including single-family, villa, condominium and luxury highrise towers, and range from the high-$100,000s to over $10 million. Our world-class amenities include championship golf, tennis, marinas, beaches, dining, spa and fitness facilities, resort hotels, parks, nature trails, theaters, business centers and more.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Discussione (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Alto