Hanno aspettato un po' troppo a vendere Hapag-Lloyd e ci hanno ricavato meno di quanto non fosse lecito attendersi... la vendita è poi troppo "parziale" ed il credito accordato a Hapag-Lloyd continua ad esporre la società ai fattori di rischio legati al business del containers shipping, passato dalle stelle dell'estate scorsa alla stalle attuali...
Risultato: un accumularsi di scadenze debitorie da rifinanziare nei prossimi anni, in un periodo in cui il business di TUI resterà soggetto a debolezza legata alla sua ciclicità, un ritardo sui tempi preventivati di riduzione del leverage.
TUI AG Outlook Revised To Negative On Lower-Than-Expected Sale Proceeds, Macroeconomic Strains; 'B+' Rating Affirmed
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) April 1, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it revised its outlook on German conglomerate TUI AG to negative from stable. At the same time, the 'B+' long-term corporate credit rating on TUI was affirmed.
"The outlook revision reflects lower-than-expected cash proceeds from the recent completion of the sale of a majority stake in the group's shipping business, Hapag-Lloyd (HL), net of new financing lines made available to HL, as well as rising macroeconomic pressures," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Philip Temme.
In addition, the rating is constrained by structural weaknesses and
reporting complexities arising from TUI's position as a holding company with minority equity stakes in its two principal operating businesses. TUI
comprises 40.3% of London-listed TUI Travel PLC (TTP) (or 51.4% of voting rights in the fully consolidated TTP), 43.3% of the vehicle that now controls HL (reported as a discontinued operation in 2008), and a variety of hotel, resort, and cruise investments.
The HL transaction, which closed on March 23, 2009, involved the sale of 56.66% of HL for net cash proceeds of €1.6 billion. The deal permitted TUI to deconsolidate €1.3 billion of HL debt and leased assets with a capitalized net present value of about €1.8 billion. Net cash proceeds from the transaction, after about €700 million of new financing from TUI to HL, amounted to approximately €900 million and we currently expect them to be substantially used to reduce debt.
"Given the rapidly deteriorating prospects for container shipping caused
by the sharp decline in world trade, we view the partial sale of HL as broadly credit-positive. However, the cash proceeds from the sale were lower than we had originally anticipated, therefore reducing TUI's strategic flexibility to make additional investments in tourism," said Mr. Temme.
TUI's increased credit exposure to HL illustrates that it has only
partially managed to extricate itself from shipping-related risks.
The group has granted total credit lines to HL of €1.15 billion (already substantially drawn), on top of its existing loans to TTP, which are currently about €1.02 billion drawn.
Most of the new financing provided to HL is unsecured (with the exception of a €200 million tranche guaranteed by the City of Hamburg and others) and is due between March 2010 and December 2012.
The new credit lines to HL create substantial additional refinancing risk in the event that replacement external financing is unavailable, a risk accentuated by TUI's own substantial bond maturities over the next couple of years.
The ratings on TUI reflect the group's complex structure, highly
leveraged financial risk profile (with lease-adjusted net debt to EBITDA before HL cash proceeds in excess of 6x on Dec. 31, 2008), and cash flow leakage to minorities. TUI is also exposed to the seasonal and cyclical tourism industry where margins are modest and event risks are high.
These risks are mitigated in part by TUI's market-leading positions as well as its geographically well-diversified sales.
"The negative outlook reflects our view that TUI is now less likely to
achieve credit metrics consistent with a 'B+' long-term CCR (defined as lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA of less than 5x) by the end of financial 2009.
We expect increasing recessionary challenges, particularly for shipping, to
reduce consolidated earnings, offsetting to some degree the deleveraging which will follow from the partial sale of HL," said Mr. Temme