Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1 (13 lettori)
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fedro10
è la somma che fa il totale...
qquebec
Super Moderator
Air France-Klm ISIN ??????? Non trovo però isin se quancuno lo conosce puo.............
AIR FRANCE KLM 2020 6.25% FR0012650281 | Obbligazioni - Investireoggi.it
Magician
Forumer attivo
Takko
[FONT="]German discount retailer Takko reported their 3Q15 results today with sales of €254.9m (-7.2% yoy, LFLs -8.6%) vs €255.5m expected and adj EBITDA of €15.4m vs €6.0m expected and €11.7m yoy.
* We understand this was ahead of street expectations and leaves the LTM EBITDA at €93.5m vs the RCF covenant of €85m.
The Results
* The improvement in EBITDA centred on the GPM, at 56.8% vs 50% yoy with far less markdowns and better sourcing. Limiting discounts is the correct strategy as the opposite strategy would have been very difficult to recover from, in our view. Overall market conditions remain tough, however, with weak LFLs. This was expected/guided to by mgt but in our view it proves their expansion into Eastern Europe has failed. What do they do about double digit LFLs? (East Europe LFLs -13.4%, Central Europe LFLs -10.3%, which are materially worse than last year). Store rationalization, well, not expanding as much, is partially helping also but it is difficult to see any recovery on the top line calendar year 2015.
Current trading
* The double digit negative LFLs has continued in the 4Q15, however, they stated the GPM has “continued strong outperformance” in Feb vs yoy. We suspect they will head for a c€15-18m EBITDA range in their final quarter til April which will mean they stay above the RCF covenant.
Liquidity
* Liqudity remains adequate. The €85m RCF was drawn €27.3m in total (€7.3m for G’tees) and the €190m LOC borrowing base was drawn €165.2m. Cash on hand is €20.2m, which was in line with our expectations. Working capital is seasonally an outflow but it was higher than we expected (against a hard comp). Inventory days have increased to 143 from c130 all year so the balance is above average. This is an effect of not discounting but going forward management will have to manage this more effectively, in our view. We also had no add backs for “losses on inventory re-valuations” this quarter, which is good for the reported EBITDA but this could be masking some write downs next quarter.
Where to now?
* A seasonal working capital inflow usually comes in the 4Q14 which should ensure they have enough liquidity to pay the coupon, albeit mgt stated they were building inventory again on the call. This makes us wonder how sustainable the reduction is. If the 3Q15 margin improvement is sustainable at least, they could keep the EBITDA above €90m in the short term. However, even with structurally higher GPMs, those negative LFLs are likely to eat into this run-rate EBITDA going forward. Something else has to be done and we need better colour than “good progress in portfolio management and continued positive signs of recovery” to believe a turnaround is possible. Mgt dodged a bullet today, in our view, and likely will do in the 4Q15.
Coupon payment due April 15th
* As above, we believe the coupon is likely to be paid April 15, in our view, with cash on hand and a w/k inflow (mgt did not take our question on the size expectations). But where does that leave the business in the medium to long term? Per our preview, we believe most players realise the capital structure is unsustainable, it’s just a question of when someone does something about it.
* Talk of bond buy backs is always interesting when mentioned in a report, yet the commentary looked fairly standard to me. They laid out 7 different outcomes, one of which is a restructuring. All this highlights to us that Apax, mgt, is aware of the situation if nothing else. That said, mgt stated they had not bought bonds back and these comments were merely “protective language” for themselves and possibly Apax. In our view, this is hardly a ringing endorsement when combined with the outlook.
[/FONT]
[FONT="]German discount retailer Takko reported their 3Q15 results today with sales of €254.9m (-7.2% yoy, LFLs -8.6%) vs €255.5m expected and adj EBITDA of €15.4m vs €6.0m expected and €11.7m yoy.
* We understand this was ahead of street expectations and leaves the LTM EBITDA at €93.5m vs the RCF covenant of €85m.
The Results
* The improvement in EBITDA centred on the GPM, at 56.8% vs 50% yoy with far less markdowns and better sourcing. Limiting discounts is the correct strategy as the opposite strategy would have been very difficult to recover from, in our view. Overall market conditions remain tough, however, with weak LFLs. This was expected/guided to by mgt but in our view it proves their expansion into Eastern Europe has failed. What do they do about double digit LFLs? (East Europe LFLs -13.4%, Central Europe LFLs -10.3%, which are materially worse than last year). Store rationalization, well, not expanding as much, is partially helping also but it is difficult to see any recovery on the top line calendar year 2015.
Current trading
* The double digit negative LFLs has continued in the 4Q15, however, they stated the GPM has “continued strong outperformance” in Feb vs yoy. We suspect they will head for a c€15-18m EBITDA range in their final quarter til April which will mean they stay above the RCF covenant.
Liquidity
* Liqudity remains adequate. The €85m RCF was drawn €27.3m in total (€7.3m for G’tees) and the €190m LOC borrowing base was drawn €165.2m. Cash on hand is €20.2m, which was in line with our expectations. Working capital is seasonally an outflow but it was higher than we expected (against a hard comp). Inventory days have increased to 143 from c130 all year so the balance is above average. This is an effect of not discounting but going forward management will have to manage this more effectively, in our view. We also had no add backs for “losses on inventory re-valuations” this quarter, which is good for the reported EBITDA but this could be masking some write downs next quarter.
Where to now?
* A seasonal working capital inflow usually comes in the 4Q14 which should ensure they have enough liquidity to pay the coupon, albeit mgt stated they were building inventory again on the call. This makes us wonder how sustainable the reduction is. If the 3Q15 margin improvement is sustainable at least, they could keep the EBITDA above €90m in the short term. However, even with structurally higher GPMs, those negative LFLs are likely to eat into this run-rate EBITDA going forward. Something else has to be done and we need better colour than “good progress in portfolio management and continued positive signs of recovery” to believe a turnaround is possible. Mgt dodged a bullet today, in our view, and likely will do in the 4Q15.
Coupon payment due April 15th
* As above, we believe the coupon is likely to be paid April 15, in our view, with cash on hand and a w/k inflow (mgt did not take our question on the size expectations). But where does that leave the business in the medium to long term? Per our preview, we believe most players realise the capital structure is unsustainable, it’s just a question of when someone does something about it.
* Talk of bond buy backs is always interesting when mentioned in a report, yet the commentary looked fairly standard to me. They laid out 7 different outcomes, one of which is a restructuring. All this highlights to us that Apax, mgt, is aware of the situation if nothing else. That said, mgt stated they had not bought bonds back and these comments were merely “protective language” for themselves and possibly Apax. In our view, this is hardly a ringing endorsement when combined with the outlook.
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fabriziof
Forumer storico
di chi sono questi commenti?
Magician
Forumer attivo
Casa Americana dal desk HY Europe
fabriziof
Forumer storico
ok .secondo loro prima o poi ristrutturano
Joe Silver
Forumer storico
fabriziof
Forumer storico
qquebec
Super Moderator
- Stato