ricerca Societe Generale
In the early hours of Saturday, Prime Minister Tsipras announced a referendum to accept
or reject the latest terms offered by the creditors. His government will campaign for
rejection. Subsequently, the Eurogroup refused the request from the Greek government
to extend the programme beyond 30 June. Bottom line, even an “accept” vote will not
bring the current programme back. This expires on 30 June and Greece would then have
to apply for a new programme with all the complexity and not least time that would entail.
Sunday, the ECB announced that it will work closely with the Bank of Greece to safeguard
financial stability and maintain the ELA at Friday’s level. Given reports of queues in front
of ATM machines in Greece, bank holidays and capital controls have become likely. At
this stage, we maintain our probability of 60% that, ultimately, a semi-stable agreement
will be reached, allowing Greece to remain in the euro, but it will be a lengthy process. We
now see a 40% chance of Grexit.