Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato / 2 (9 lettori)
sempreinesperto
Forumer attivo
MA Tommy?
tommy271
Forumer storico
Sarò assente per un pò.
Gli spread dell'Eurozona (e quelli greci) continuano ad oscillare piuttosto stabilmente attorno al bund.
I rendimenti restano sotto controllo attorno a quota 0,90% mentre il Bund da quota - 0,60% è passato a - 0,25%.
La Borsa di Atene (e i vari ETF ad essa collegati) sono intorno ai max.
Gli sguardi positivi ssono indirizzati verso quota 1000 mentre quelli negativi vedono un ritorno verso quota 800.
Chi ha acquistato ai livelli "pandemici" di marzo/aprile dello scorso anno potrebbe analizzare un alleggerimento (ora siamo a 875 punti). Se invece la vision resta positiva, può augurarsi quote ancora maggiori.
marcotek
Forumer storico
NOTIZIA POSITIVA CHE PUO FAR SALIRE I BTP italia e di conseguenza anche la Grecia.
21/04/2021 La corte suprema tedesca ha consentito al paese di procedere con la ratifica del fondo per la ripresa da una pandemia da 800 miliardi di euro (960 miliardi di dollari) dell'Unione Europea , respingendo un'offerta per bloccare il programma economico chiave mentre è in corso una causa contro il programma.I querelanti che cercano di rovesciare il programma non sono riusciti a dimostrare che erano molto propensi a vincere la loro sfida, quindi la ratifica tedesca non può essere sospesa mentre la controversia sottostante è in sospeso, ha affermato la Corte costituzionale federale della nazione in una dichiarazione mercoledì.
21/04/2021 La corte suprema tedesca ha consentito al paese di procedere con la ratifica del fondo per la ripresa da una pandemia da 800 miliardi di euro (960 miliardi di dollari) dell'Unione Europea , respingendo un'offerta per bloccare il programma economico chiave mentre è in corso una causa contro il programma.I querelanti che cercano di rovesciare il programma non sono riusciti a dimostrare che erano molto propensi a vincere la loro sfida, quindi la ratifica tedesca non può essere sospesa mentre la controversia sottostante è in sospeso, ha affermato la Corte costituzionale federale della nazione in una dichiarazione mercoledì.
Bzt
Forumer storico
Sono uno di quelli, ho triplicato la mia posizione su ETF Athex il 20 Marzo 2020 e sto ragionando sul da farsi.
E' comunque una posizione secondaria e di poca preoccupazione quella sull'ETF, quella primaria è sui GR coi quali non so bene che fare, da un lato credo sia ora di alleggerire, ma siamo sotto di quasi una decina di figure dai massimi e mi spaventa l'inevitabile CG da pagare...
Credo che anche tu Tommy stia affrontando questi dilemmi.
A presto rileggerti!
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
Sono uno di quelli, ho triplicato la mia posizione su ETF Athex il 20 Marzo 2020 e sto ragionando sul da farsi.
E' comunque una posizione secondaria e di poca preoccupazione quella sull'ETF, quella primaria è sui GR coi quali non so bene che fare, da un lato credo sia ora di alleggerire, ma siamo sotto di quasi una decina di figure dai massimi e mi spaventa l'inevitabile CG da pagare...
Credo che anche tu Tommy stia affrontando questi dilemmi.
A presto rileggerti!
La Borsa di Atene ha già anticipato buona parte delle prossime news positive.
Parametrando i vari ETF con l'indice ASE, gli obiettivi erano di raggiungere i 900/950 punti (e già ci siamo) ... i più ottimisti sperano in una buona stagione turistica (non ancora scontata) che potrebbe far riattivare tutto l'indotto dell'economia e portare l'ASE tra i 1000 e i 1100 punti.
Ognuno deve fare le sue valutazioni.
Per quanto riguarda lo spread, ben poco da segnalare.
La BCE si erge da barriera invulnerabile, mantenendo i differenziali stabili.
I rendimenti sul decennale ruotano intorno a quota 0,90%, direi soddisfacenti.
Ventodivino
מגן ולא יראה
Visto che non lo mette nessuno...
Greece Upgraded To 'BB' On Improved Governance Effectiveness; Outlook Positive
Overview
On April 23, 2021, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term sovereign credit rating on Greece to 'BB' from 'BB-' and affirmed its short-term rating at 'B'. The outlook is positive.
Outlook
The positive outlook signifies that we could raise our ratings on Greece within the next 12-18 months if economic recovery is faster than we currently project and stronger than peers'. Ratings upside could also hinge on a material improvement in budgetary performance, coupled with a marked reduction of nonperforming exposures (NPEs) in Greece's banking system.
Downside scenario
We could revise the outlook to stable if the economy weakens more than we expect, or due to large and negative deviations from our current budgetary projections.
Upside scenario
We could raise our ratings on Greece if the structural reforms continue alongside a strong economic rebound and improved budgetary performance. In this scenario, NPEs in Greece's impaired banking system would also shrink significantly, which would benefit monetary transmission, in our view.
Rationale
The upgrade reflects our expectation of a rapid improvement in Greece's economic and budgetary performance as the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic subside. The government's policies should enable progress on budgetary consolidation and structural reforms. These developments, together with the expected deployment of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds, will result in an improved economic performance.
In 2020, Greece's governance effectiveness and economic resilience efforts received a boost via the monetary and fiscal policy responses at eurozone and EU levels, respectively. The European Central Bank's (ECB's) supportive monetary policy materially facilitated market access for government borrowing at relatively low costs due to the inclusion of Greek government bonds in the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) and as collateral in the ECB's repurchase operations.
EU fiscal support in the pipeline comes in two forms. First, the EU's multiannual financial framework is set to distribute almost €40 billion (22.7% of 2019 GDP) to Greek authorities during 2021-2027. Second, the EU's Recovery and Resilience Plan targets a disbursement of about €32.0 billion (18.2% of 2019 GDP), of which €19.4 billion (11.0% of 2019 GDP) is in grants, with the remaining €12.6 billion in loans. In our view, if used effectively, these funds will enable further structural economic improvements in the Greek economy, particularly addressing the large investment gap, a result of the pro-cyclical fiscal tightening required of Greece after the global financial crisis.
The structural reforms implemented by consecutive Greek governments over the past several years have, in our view, enhanced the predictability of policy-making. This bodes well for the country's economic and budgetary outlook once the pandemic's impact diminishes. Despite the COVID-19-induced dip in 2020, Greece's creditworthiness benefits from the government's significant fiscal buffers, thanks to:
We also acknowledge that the ratings are constrained by the country's high external and government debt and challenged monetary transmission, given the large NPEs in the banking sector.
Institutional and economic profile: Greece's structural reforms and the deployment of EU funds brighten the economic outlook
Over the next three years, we expect Greece's economic growth will surpass the eurozone average, including in real GDP per capita terms. We expect economic performance to be fueled mainly by domestic demand and exports this year, although we do not expect tourism receipts will recover to 2019 levels until 2024-2025. The government's 2020 fiscal measures, such as the reduction of personal income tax for low-income earners, lowering of property tax, and revised schedule for paying tax arrears, should still support households' disposable income and recovery in domestic demand. In the near term, we anticipate the government will continue with targeted fiscal measures to counter the pandemic's economic fallout, as well as shield viable businesses and employees from a temporary-but-severe liquidity shock, until the recovery is well underway. Without the government's sizable fiscal response, Greece's GDP would fall considerably more, and solvent businesses would be forced to liquidate, eroding the economy's productive base.
The ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), launched at the pandemic's onset to stabilize financial markets, will continue to absorb the economic shocks stemming from the COVID-19 crisis, including in Greece. Besides granting a waiver of the eligibility requirements for securities issued by the Greek government, the ECB has been accepting Greek government bonds as collateral in its repurchase operations, further boosting liquidity support to the banking system. In December 2020, it scaled up its policy response to the disinflationary consequences of COVID-19 and increased the envelope for a second time to €1.85 trillion or about 14% of the euro area GDP. Given the increase in government borrowing needs, we believe that the ongoing expansion of the ECB's balance sheet is appropriately oriented toward absorbing those needs at relatively low costs.
We believe that, in the coming years, the Greek economy will benefit substantially from the available facilities under the NGEU fund. Under the agreement, Greece is set to receive grants of €19.4 billion by 2026 and is eligible for loans of up to €12.6 billion, without considering loans available via the SURE fund for employment support or the European Stability Mechanism's (ESM's) pandemic credit line. We believe that, if used efficiently, these funds could fast-track the structural improvements in the economy and will contribute to stronger growth during our forecast horizon.
As a result, investment activity is set to improve in 2021, alongside increasing net foreign direct investment (FDI). The privatization process slowed in 2020 due to the pandemic, but the government is accelerating it this year, facilitating planned private-sector-led projects, such as redevelopment of the site where Athens International Airport formerly stood. Assets to be privatized this year include a 30% stake in Athens International Airport, a 65% stake in DEPA Infrastructure and DEPA Commerce (successor companies of the public gas corporation), the first installment for the Hellinikon project (€300 million), concessions on the Egnatia motorway, and regional ports.
Greece still has a less favorable business environment than peers. This is due to impediments to competition in its product and professional services markets, relatively weak property rights, inefficient judiciary, and low predictability of contract enforcement. The government is reducing undue administrative burdens (especially to speed up investment) and anticompetitive behavior by advancing digital transformation, particularly in the services sector. This includes embedding digital skills training into primary and secondary education, as well as digitalizing public administration. Furthermore, the government adopted reforms of vocational training and of higher education in order to improve the labor market outcomes. We believe successful reforms would likely result in productivity gains, enhance macroeconomic outcomes, and better the sovereign's debt-servicing ability in the medium to long term. We believe the funds available under the NGEU agreement could act as a catalyst for such reforms.
In our opinion, one of the keys to a faster economic recovery is a drop in banks' NPEs since it would spur private-sector credit. We believe the positive impact of previous structural reforms is unlikely to be displayed in recessionary or low-growth conditions. Without access to working capital, small and midsize enterprises--the economy's largest employer--remain in varying degrees of distress. Private-sector default is still widespread, including on tax debt. The 2020 recession has further complicated efforts to reduce the large stock of NPEs, given the pandemic's repercussions on corporate balance sheets. As such, we believe the Bank of Greece's proposal on a new NPE-reduction facility is a step in the right direction and could be deployed in 2021. At the same time, the government is planning a new nonperforming loan-related facility, Hercules II, to accelerate the clean-up of the banks' balance sheets. Moreover, drawing on €12.6 billion worth of loans from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility and channeling them to the private sector at low borrowing costs via banking system should spur economic activity in the coming years.
Following the end of the ESM program, Greece is subject to quarterly reviews under the European Commission's enhanced surveillance framework. Ongoing debt relief and the return of so-called ANFA/SMP (Agreement on Net Financial Assets/Securities Market Programme) profits on Greek bonds held by the ECB and the eurozone's national central banks are subject to ongoing compliance with the program's objectives. This, combined with the available NGEU funds, constitutes a major incentive for the government to further structural reforms.
Flexibility and performance profile: Budgetary performance will improve as COVID-19 fallout subsides
Greece's 2021 budget aims at supporting the economic recovery, particularly the sectors most affected by the pandemic. Plans include incentivizing employment, reducing social security contributions for private sector employees by three percentage points, and waiving the social solidarity tax for private-sector employees and the self-employed to reduce the tax pressure on labor. Moreover, a new temporary recruitment subsidy for social security contribution (for six months) has been set up, with a goal to create 100,000 jobs.
Considering the anticipated economic recovery and narrowing budget deficit, we expect gross general government debt to fall to about 201% of GDP in 2021, from about 206% in 2020, before declining further over 2022-2024. Net of cash buffers, we project a decrease in net general government debt in 2021 to about 184% of GDP--the highest among all sovereigns we rate--from about 188% of GDP in 2020.
Despite the significant worsening in the budget balance and government debt in 2020, Greece entered the pandemic with substantial fiscal buffers. This is demonstrated by its underlying pre-pandemic structural budget position (estimated at a surplus of about 2% of GDP in 2019), as well as its access to a substantial liquidity reserve (estimated at about 17% of GDP end-2020), which markedly reduces its borrowing needs. Moreover, we expect the transfers of SMP/ANFA returns from the Eurosystem will continue, despite a substantial deterioration in budgetary performance. In addition, the ECB's decisions on eligibility of Greek government bonds for PEPP and as collateral in repurchase operations, are key for Greece's access to funding at affordable rates, in our view. Eased access to funding options in the context of the recent EU agreements on:
Greek banks have advanced their plan to reduce NPEs, reaching €58.7 billion in September 2020 from about €68.0 billion at the end of 2019 (excluding off-balance-sheet items) and €107.2 billion in March 2016. The Greek authorities launched an asset-protection scheme called Hercules, which entails granting sovereign guarantees for senior tranches of proposed NPE securitizations to reduce NPEs in the banking system (see "The Labors Of Hercules: Still Not Enough To Turn Around Greek Banks," published Jan. 27, 2020, on RatingsDirect). We believe such measures will help repair the monetary transmission mechanism and hasten the economic recovery. Furthermore, we believe the proposals by the Bank of Greece and the government for two additional NPE-reducing facilities is a step in the right direction. Assuming ongoing transactions close as planned, we expect the system-wide NPE ratio to drop below 20% by end-2022. That said, we anticipate that the ongoing pandemic will likely cause additional problem loans to emerge.
The banking system's liquidity has improved over the past few years. Greek financial institutions retain access to the ECB's long-term refinancing lines, while those Greek small and midsize enterprises most exposed to the pandemic, particularly in tourism, have access to dedicated targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) lines on highly accommodative terms. This should shield the Greek economy from intense external liquidity pressure. Importantly, following the ECB's March 2020 decision, banks can access regular ECB financing using Greek government bonds as collateral. As a result, Greek banks have maximized their funding from the ECB. The TLTRO funding for Greek banks amounted to more than €41 billion as of December 2020. Apart from the advantages of resulting cheaper funding costs, major Greek banks reported strong pre-provisioning income thanks to profits from trading gains related to the government bond holdings. A higher savings rate amid the pandemic, coupled with improved depositor and investor sentiment, supports greater customer deposits. System-wide deposits posted a 9% growth in 2020, and we do not exclude a mid-to-high single-digit growth by year-end 2022. This, coupled with ongoing clean-up of balance sheets and the eventual use of the EU's structural funds, is favorable for the credit supply. The restoration of precarious earnings remains the key challenge for Greek banks.
We project Greece's current account deficit will narrow in 2021 to 4.2% of GDP from 6.7%. This will follow a pickup in tourism and other exports receipts. Nevertheless, the increase in imports, including due to higher oil prices, will impede a faster improvement in current account balance. Structural economic changes over recent years have put Greece's export sector into a position to benefit from its increased competitiveness, which is displayed in solid export performance of goods, in our view. For example, in 2020 exports of goods increased by 5.5% in real terms. In a broader perspective, labor cost competitiveness has improved to the level before 2000, and external demand has risen. Consequently, the share of exported goods and services (excluding shipping services) has almost doubled, compared with 19% of GDP in 2009. Once the financial risks of COVID-19 have abated, Greece's market shares in global trade could stretch further. Moreover, following a temporary dip in 2020, FDI inflows are expected to increase again this year. We believe that the large grants emanating from the NGEU agreement will benefit balance of payments developments during 2021-2026.
Greece Upgraded To 'BB' On Improved Governance Effectiveness; Outlook Positive
Overview
- Following last year's COVID-19-induced 8.2% GDP contraction, we expect Greece's economy to rebound by 4.9% in 2021 before accelerating to 5.8% in 2022.
- The government benefits from substantial fiscal buffers, and the economy will receive an additional stimulus from upcoming grants and loans from the Next Generation EU agreement.
- We expect the government's policies to accelerate structural reforms and budgetary consolidation, cementing the downward path for government debt in GDP terms.
- We therefore raised our long-term sovereign credit rating on Greece to 'BB' from 'BB-', and affirmed the short-term rating at 'B'.
- The outlook is positive.
On April 23, 2021, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term sovereign credit rating on Greece to 'BB' from 'BB-' and affirmed its short-term rating at 'B'. The outlook is positive.
Outlook
The positive outlook signifies that we could raise our ratings on Greece within the next 12-18 months if economic recovery is faster than we currently project and stronger than peers'. Ratings upside could also hinge on a material improvement in budgetary performance, coupled with a marked reduction of nonperforming exposures (NPEs) in Greece's banking system.
Downside scenario
We could revise the outlook to stable if the economy weakens more than we expect, or due to large and negative deviations from our current budgetary projections.
Upside scenario
We could raise our ratings on Greece if the structural reforms continue alongside a strong economic rebound and improved budgetary performance. In this scenario, NPEs in Greece's impaired banking system would also shrink significantly, which would benefit monetary transmission, in our view.
Rationale
The upgrade reflects our expectation of a rapid improvement in Greece's economic and budgetary performance as the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic subside. The government's policies should enable progress on budgetary consolidation and structural reforms. These developments, together with the expected deployment of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds, will result in an improved economic performance.
In 2020, Greece's governance effectiveness and economic resilience efforts received a boost via the monetary and fiscal policy responses at eurozone and EU levels, respectively. The European Central Bank's (ECB's) supportive monetary policy materially facilitated market access for government borrowing at relatively low costs due to the inclusion of Greek government bonds in the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) and as collateral in the ECB's repurchase operations.
EU fiscal support in the pipeline comes in two forms. First, the EU's multiannual financial framework is set to distribute almost €40 billion (22.7% of 2019 GDP) to Greek authorities during 2021-2027. Second, the EU's Recovery and Resilience Plan targets a disbursement of about €32.0 billion (18.2% of 2019 GDP), of which €19.4 billion (11.0% of 2019 GDP) is in grants, with the remaining €12.6 billion in loans. In our view, if used effectively, these funds will enable further structural economic improvements in the Greek economy, particularly addressing the large investment gap, a result of the pro-cyclical fiscal tightening required of Greece after the global financial crisis.
The structural reforms implemented by consecutive Greek governments over the past several years have, in our view, enhanced the predictability of policy-making. This bodes well for the country's economic and budgetary outlook once the pandemic's impact diminishes. Despite the COVID-19-induced dip in 2020, Greece's creditworthiness benefits from the government's significant fiscal buffers, thanks to:
- Solid budgetary performance before the pandemic;
- Preservation of substantial liquidity reserves on the government's balance sheet; and
- A favorable government debt structure.
We also acknowledge that the ratings are constrained by the country's high external and government debt and challenged monetary transmission, given the large NPEs in the banking sector.
Institutional and economic profile: Greece's structural reforms and the deployment of EU funds brighten the economic outlook
- We expect the economy to bounce back from the pandemic-induced contraction, with growth of 4.9% in 2021 and generally strong performance over 2022-2024.
- That said, near-term downside risks from the evolution of COVID-19 variants remain, especially for Greece's large tourism sector.
- We believe that efficient use of the large inflow of EU funds could accelerate the structural improvement in the economy during our forecast horizon.
Over the next three years, we expect Greece's economic growth will surpass the eurozone average, including in real GDP per capita terms. We expect economic performance to be fueled mainly by domestic demand and exports this year, although we do not expect tourism receipts will recover to 2019 levels until 2024-2025. The government's 2020 fiscal measures, such as the reduction of personal income tax for low-income earners, lowering of property tax, and revised schedule for paying tax arrears, should still support households' disposable income and recovery in domestic demand. In the near term, we anticipate the government will continue with targeted fiscal measures to counter the pandemic's economic fallout, as well as shield viable businesses and employees from a temporary-but-severe liquidity shock, until the recovery is well underway. Without the government's sizable fiscal response, Greece's GDP would fall considerably more, and solvent businesses would be forced to liquidate, eroding the economy's productive base.
The ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), launched at the pandemic's onset to stabilize financial markets, will continue to absorb the economic shocks stemming from the COVID-19 crisis, including in Greece. Besides granting a waiver of the eligibility requirements for securities issued by the Greek government, the ECB has been accepting Greek government bonds as collateral in its repurchase operations, further boosting liquidity support to the banking system. In December 2020, it scaled up its policy response to the disinflationary consequences of COVID-19 and increased the envelope for a second time to €1.85 trillion or about 14% of the euro area GDP. Given the increase in government borrowing needs, we believe that the ongoing expansion of the ECB's balance sheet is appropriately oriented toward absorbing those needs at relatively low costs.
We believe that, in the coming years, the Greek economy will benefit substantially from the available facilities under the NGEU fund. Under the agreement, Greece is set to receive grants of €19.4 billion by 2026 and is eligible for loans of up to €12.6 billion, without considering loans available via the SURE fund for employment support or the European Stability Mechanism's (ESM's) pandemic credit line. We believe that, if used efficiently, these funds could fast-track the structural improvements in the economy and will contribute to stronger growth during our forecast horizon.
As a result, investment activity is set to improve in 2021, alongside increasing net foreign direct investment (FDI). The privatization process slowed in 2020 due to the pandemic, but the government is accelerating it this year, facilitating planned private-sector-led projects, such as redevelopment of the site where Athens International Airport formerly stood. Assets to be privatized this year include a 30% stake in Athens International Airport, a 65% stake in DEPA Infrastructure and DEPA Commerce (successor companies of the public gas corporation), the first installment for the Hellinikon project (€300 million), concessions on the Egnatia motorway, and regional ports.
Greece still has a less favorable business environment than peers. This is due to impediments to competition in its product and professional services markets, relatively weak property rights, inefficient judiciary, and low predictability of contract enforcement. The government is reducing undue administrative burdens (especially to speed up investment) and anticompetitive behavior by advancing digital transformation, particularly in the services sector. This includes embedding digital skills training into primary and secondary education, as well as digitalizing public administration. Furthermore, the government adopted reforms of vocational training and of higher education in order to improve the labor market outcomes. We believe successful reforms would likely result in productivity gains, enhance macroeconomic outcomes, and better the sovereign's debt-servicing ability in the medium to long term. We believe the funds available under the NGEU agreement could act as a catalyst for such reforms.
In our opinion, one of the keys to a faster economic recovery is a drop in banks' NPEs since it would spur private-sector credit. We believe the positive impact of previous structural reforms is unlikely to be displayed in recessionary or low-growth conditions. Without access to working capital, small and midsize enterprises--the economy's largest employer--remain in varying degrees of distress. Private-sector default is still widespread, including on tax debt. The 2020 recession has further complicated efforts to reduce the large stock of NPEs, given the pandemic's repercussions on corporate balance sheets. As such, we believe the Bank of Greece's proposal on a new NPE-reduction facility is a step in the right direction and could be deployed in 2021. At the same time, the government is planning a new nonperforming loan-related facility, Hercules II, to accelerate the clean-up of the banks' balance sheets. Moreover, drawing on €12.6 billion worth of loans from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility and channeling them to the private sector at low borrowing costs via banking system should spur economic activity in the coming years.
Following the end of the ESM program, Greece is subject to quarterly reviews under the European Commission's enhanced surveillance framework. Ongoing debt relief and the return of so-called ANFA/SMP (Agreement on Net Financial Assets/Securities Market Programme) profits on Greek bonds held by the ECB and the eurozone's national central banks are subject to ongoing compliance with the program's objectives. This, combined with the available NGEU funds, constitutes a major incentive for the government to further structural reforms.
Flexibility and performance profile: Budgetary performance will improve as COVID-19 fallout subsides
- We now forecast that the budget deficit will narrow to 6.9% of GDP in 2021, from 9.7% in 2020, as some temporary pandemic-relief measures are withdrawn.
- We project that general government debt in GDP terms will gradually decline from this year, while the government preserves a large cash buffer and a wide array of funding options that don't jeopardize public finance sustainability.
- The pandemic fallout complicates banks' NPE reduction plans, although the central bank's framework and the government's new facility (Hercules II) should underpin further improvements in NPE disposals.
Greece's 2021 budget aims at supporting the economic recovery, particularly the sectors most affected by the pandemic. Plans include incentivizing employment, reducing social security contributions for private sector employees by three percentage points, and waiving the social solidarity tax for private-sector employees and the self-employed to reduce the tax pressure on labor. Moreover, a new temporary recruitment subsidy for social security contribution (for six months) has been set up, with a goal to create 100,000 jobs.
Considering the anticipated economic recovery and narrowing budget deficit, we expect gross general government debt to fall to about 201% of GDP in 2021, from about 206% in 2020, before declining further over 2022-2024. Net of cash buffers, we project a decrease in net general government debt in 2021 to about 184% of GDP--the highest among all sovereigns we rate--from about 188% of GDP in 2020.
Despite the significant worsening in the budget balance and government debt in 2020, Greece entered the pandemic with substantial fiscal buffers. This is demonstrated by its underlying pre-pandemic structural budget position (estimated at a surplus of about 2% of GDP in 2019), as well as its access to a substantial liquidity reserve (estimated at about 17% of GDP end-2020), which markedly reduces its borrowing needs. Moreover, we expect the transfers of SMP/ANFA returns from the Eurosystem will continue, despite a substantial deterioration in budgetary performance. In addition, the ECB's decisions on eligibility of Greek government bonds for PEPP and as collateral in repurchase operations, are key for Greece's access to funding at affordable rates, in our view. Eased access to funding options in the context of the recent EU agreements on:
- A credit line from the ESM;
- Credit support from the European Investment Bank;
- Reinsurance for national unemployment schemes; and
- Most importantly, grants and loans under the NGEU represent substantial additional resources.
Greek banks have advanced their plan to reduce NPEs, reaching €58.7 billion in September 2020 from about €68.0 billion at the end of 2019 (excluding off-balance-sheet items) and €107.2 billion in March 2016. The Greek authorities launched an asset-protection scheme called Hercules, which entails granting sovereign guarantees for senior tranches of proposed NPE securitizations to reduce NPEs in the banking system (see "The Labors Of Hercules: Still Not Enough To Turn Around Greek Banks," published Jan. 27, 2020, on RatingsDirect). We believe such measures will help repair the monetary transmission mechanism and hasten the economic recovery. Furthermore, we believe the proposals by the Bank of Greece and the government for two additional NPE-reducing facilities is a step in the right direction. Assuming ongoing transactions close as planned, we expect the system-wide NPE ratio to drop below 20% by end-2022. That said, we anticipate that the ongoing pandemic will likely cause additional problem loans to emerge.
The banking system's liquidity has improved over the past few years. Greek financial institutions retain access to the ECB's long-term refinancing lines, while those Greek small and midsize enterprises most exposed to the pandemic, particularly in tourism, have access to dedicated targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) lines on highly accommodative terms. This should shield the Greek economy from intense external liquidity pressure. Importantly, following the ECB's March 2020 decision, banks can access regular ECB financing using Greek government bonds as collateral. As a result, Greek banks have maximized their funding from the ECB. The TLTRO funding for Greek banks amounted to more than €41 billion as of December 2020. Apart from the advantages of resulting cheaper funding costs, major Greek banks reported strong pre-provisioning income thanks to profits from trading gains related to the government bond holdings. A higher savings rate amid the pandemic, coupled with improved depositor and investor sentiment, supports greater customer deposits. System-wide deposits posted a 9% growth in 2020, and we do not exclude a mid-to-high single-digit growth by year-end 2022. This, coupled with ongoing clean-up of balance sheets and the eventual use of the EU's structural funds, is favorable for the credit supply. The restoration of precarious earnings remains the key challenge for Greek banks.
We project Greece's current account deficit will narrow in 2021 to 4.2% of GDP from 6.7%. This will follow a pickup in tourism and other exports receipts. Nevertheless, the increase in imports, including due to higher oil prices, will impede a faster improvement in current account balance. Structural economic changes over recent years have put Greece's export sector into a position to benefit from its increased competitiveness, which is displayed in solid export performance of goods, in our view. For example, in 2020 exports of goods increased by 5.5% in real terms. In a broader perspective, labor cost competitiveness has improved to the level before 2000, and external demand has risen. Consequently, the share of exported goods and services (excluding shipping services) has almost doubled, compared with 19% of GDP in 2009. Once the financial risks of COVID-19 have abated, Greece's market shares in global trade could stretch further. Moreover, following a temporary dip in 2020, FDI inflows are expected to increase again this year. We believe that the large grants emanating from the NGEU agreement will benefit balance of payments developments during 2021-2026.
marcotek
Forumer storico
Da S&P a Moody’s: ‘agenzie di rating pronte a promuovere l’Italia, grazie al Draghi Effect. Spread BTP-Bund potrebbe crollare ai minimi dal 2010’
26/04/2021 15:12 di Laura Naka Antonelli
Grazie alla promozione che potrebbe arrivare dal mondo delle agenzie di rating, in particolare da Moody’s e/o Fitch, che al momento hanno un giudizio sul debito superiore di appena un gradino rispetto al livello junk, l’Italia di Mario Draghi potrebbe veder aumentare ulteriormente la sua appetibilità agli occhi degli investitori.Parola degli analisti di Credit Suisse, che sono costruttivi sul paese, al punto da prevedere uno spread BTP-Bund verso i livelli minimi dal 2010, ovvero attorno ai 56 punti base.
Nella nota vengono ricordati i prossimi appuntamenti cruciali per l’Italia:
dopo il giudizio dell’agenzia di rating Standard & Poor’s dello scorso 23 aprile, toccherà a DBRS il prossimo 30 aprile (al momento il rating sull’Italia è di BBB high con outlook negativo); a Moody’s (che ha un rating ‘Baa3’ con outlook stabile), il prossimo 7 maggio, e a Fitch Ratings (rating BBB- con outlook stabile), il prossimo 4 giugno.
Lo scorso venerdì è toccato per l’appunto a S&P, che ha annunciato di aver lasciato il rating invariato a ‘BBB’, confermando l’outlook a “stabile”.
Purtroppo non è così, per ora l' effetto Draghi è stato un forte ribasso dei BTP, ha emesso troppa carta e fatto troppe aperture.
26/04/2021 15:12 di Laura Naka Antonelli
Grazie alla promozione che potrebbe arrivare dal mondo delle agenzie di rating, in particolare da Moody’s e/o Fitch, che al momento hanno un giudizio sul debito superiore di appena un gradino rispetto al livello junk, l’Italia di Mario Draghi potrebbe veder aumentare ulteriormente la sua appetibilità agli occhi degli investitori.Parola degli analisti di Credit Suisse, che sono costruttivi sul paese, al punto da prevedere uno spread BTP-Bund verso i livelli minimi dal 2010, ovvero attorno ai 56 punti base.
Nella nota vengono ricordati i prossimi appuntamenti cruciali per l’Italia:
dopo il giudizio dell’agenzia di rating Standard & Poor’s dello scorso 23 aprile, toccherà a DBRS il prossimo 30 aprile (al momento il rating sull’Italia è di BBB high con outlook negativo); a Moody’s (che ha un rating ‘Baa3’ con outlook stabile), il prossimo 7 maggio, e a Fitch Ratings (rating BBB- con outlook stabile), il prossimo 4 giugno.
Lo scorso venerdì è toccato per l’appunto a S&P, che ha annunciato di aver lasciato il rating invariato a ‘BBB’, confermando l’outlook a “stabile”.
Purtroppo non è così, per ora l' effetto Draghi è stato un forte ribasso dei BTP, ha emesso troppa carta e fatto troppe aperture.
Ultima modifica:
marcotek
Forumer storico
L' effetto DRAGHI si misura con i BTP, prima della caduta di CONTE il future BTP viaggiava a 153 ora si trova a 147.
Il BTP 2067 valeva 135 ora è a 116,5 il BTP 2050 era a 126 ora è a 112,5.
Il cambio di governo ha portato male all' italia e con le nuove aperture un aumento del rischio Covid.
Ora la Grecia potrebbe tentare di riacquistare i vecchi bond con una offerta ai detentori.
Il BTP 2067 valeva 135 ora è a 116,5 il BTP 2050 era a 126 ora è a 112,5.
Il cambio di governo ha portato male all' italia e con le nuove aperture un aumento del rischio Covid.
Ora la Grecia potrebbe tentare di riacquistare i vecchi bond con una offerta ai detentori.
Ultima modifica: