Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Goodbye, Great Bond Bull Market? (1 Viewer)
apaci2
Ad bestias
- Registrato
- 21 Giugno 2010
- Messaggi
- 2.460
Almanac Trader ? Bond market makes a mountain out of an anthill
Inizia a trapelare una certa convinzione che il movimento dei tassi sia stato un po' eccessivo...
Stiamo a vedere
Inizia a trapelare una certa convinzione che il movimento dei tassi sia stato un po' eccessivo...
Stiamo a vedere
apaci2
Ad bestias
- Registrato
- 21 Giugno 2010
- Messaggi
- 2.460
Ho visto adesso fare le domande alla Yellen da JON Hilsenrath... assomiglia proprio ad un noto forumer di IO...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...hy-everything-will-be-awesome-future-live-fee
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...hy-everything-will-be-awesome-future-live-fee
amorgos34
Forumer storico
- Registrato
- 22 Maggio 2009
- Messaggi
- 8.682
Jpm
The FOMC's post-meeting statement came in close to expectations, with a modestly more upbeat description of growth and no change to the forward guidance. The interest rate forecast "dots" for 2015 were more dovish than expectations; while the median expectation for two hikes this year was unchanged, seven participants now see fewer than two hikes this year, up from only three participants in the March forecast round. We expect some of those participants may include the leadership, and so it does raise some questions about whether September is still the most likely date of liftoff. Of course, it could be that those participants who changed their view on 2015 still have an unchanged expectation for September liftoff, but anticipate a longer pause after the first hike. (We continue to look for a first hike in September, but today's dots reinforce our sense that this is very far from a layup). For 2016 and 2017 the change in the dots was closer to expectations, with the median dot coming down 25 basis points. There was little change in the longer-run view of the neutral fed funds rate. There was also little change in the forecasts for unemployment and inflation in 2016 and 2017, so we expect the downward revision to the dots for those years reflects a somewhat more dovish reaction function. Another way to read that revision is as a signaling device to reinforce the message that the Fed will hike rates gradually after liftoff.
Quick take on the FOMC
The FOMC's post-meeting statement came in close to expectations, with a modestly more upbeat description of growth and no change to the forward guidance. The interest rate forecast "dots" for 2015 were more dovish than expectations; while the median expectation for two hikes this year was unchanged, seven participants now see fewer than two hikes this year, up from only three participants in the March forecast round. We expect some of those participants may include the leadership, and so it does raise some questions about whether September is still the most likely date of liftoff. Of course, it could be that those participants who changed their view on 2015 still have an unchanged expectation for September liftoff, but anticipate a longer pause after the first hike. (We continue to look for a first hike in September, but today's dots reinforce our sense that this is very far from a layup). For 2016 and 2017 the change in the dots was closer to expectations, with the median dot coming down 25 basis points. There was little change in the longer-run view of the neutral fed funds rate. There was also little change in the forecasts for unemployment and inflation in 2016 and 2017, so we expect the downward revision to the dots for those years reflects a somewhat more dovish reaction function. Another way to read that revision is as a signaling device to reinforce the message that the Fed will hike rates gradually after liftoff.
amorgos34
Forumer storico
- Registrato
- 22 Maggio 2009
- Messaggi
- 8.682
Data dependent per me e Jon.
Balliamo, è da tanto tempo che non lo facciamo. #TsiprasvsTroika #Quasiquasivadolongsuimercati
apaci2
Ad bestias
- Registrato
- 21 Giugno 2010
- Messaggi
- 2.460
Sono andato alla ricerca del thread per un messaggio di utilità sociale...
Chi avesse contatti altolocati imponga alla yellen di alzare questi benedetti tassi il prima possibile...
Incredibile a dirsi ma sarebbe molto meglio... Anche per i bond
Chi avesse contatti altolocati imponga alla yellen di alzare questi benedetti tassi il prima possibile...
Incredibile a dirsi ma sarebbe molto meglio... Anche per i bond
ferdo
Utente Senior
- Registrato
- 2 Giugno 2009
- Messaggi
- 11.344
No, devi vivere nell'incertezza, di mese in mese
apaci2
Ad bestias
- Registrato
- 21 Giugno 2010
- Messaggi
- 2.460
Ah dici una lenta agonia... Cosparsa di rischio credito dei corporate a livelli diciamo particolari... Attendendo per sempre inflazione...
P.s. già che ci siete avvisate anche Fischer di darsi una mossa