Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA (4 lettori)


Nuovo forumer
15 Gennaio 2009
Quanto dici è tanto più vero se consideri che molte case hanno trasformato, da anni a questa parte oramai, l'autovettura in un prodotto a bassissimo margine, perché "tanto poi si guadagna sul finanziamento".

Insomma, l'auto come strumento per vendere il vero prodotto, ossia il finanziamento, con il successivo corollario della vendita delle dei crediti acquisiti nei confronti dei clienti, avviati alle cartolarizzazioni ... anche questa situazione si avvia a vedere un forte ridimensionamento: si venderanno meno auto, si dovrà cercare di produrle in maniera più efficiente, ma soprattutto, ci sarà bisogno di un numero inferiore di produttori...
Già, e mi chiedo perchè soprattutto chi gravita direttamente o nell' indotto, salvo poche eccezioni, contunui a far finta che non sia così.
Ogni giorno che passa senza "anticipare" questi tempi, è un giorno perso.
Un giorno perso non solo per gli stessi lavoratori, ma direi per tutta la collettività, per finire ai risparmiatori, che rischiano di rimanere con della carta straccia in mano... come temo potrà accadere con GM.
Mi auguro di no, ma non sono certo i miei auspici a poter cambiare le cose.


Chapter 11
2 Maggio 2004
Carpi - MO -
Chrysler LLC is preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as soon as next week, whether or not it reaches a deal with its lenders or forges an alliance with Fiat SpA, said several people familiar with the matter.
If an agreement with the car maker's lenders can be reached, Chrysler would file for bankruptcy protection to rid itself of some liabilities. That would let Fiat pick and choose which operations it wants, these people said. The U.S. government would provide bankruptcy financing while the reorganization plays out.
The United Auto Workers union is on board with the plan and likely would end up owning a sizable stake in the restructured car maker, said these people.
A relatively orderly bankruptcy filing along these lines would represent a measure of success for the Obama administration. But if a deal with Chrysler's banks and Fiat cannot be reached, the company would begin the process of liquidation, with assets potentially sold to many buyers or shut down, said these people. Chrysler has shrunk radically in recent years but still employs 66,000 people in the U.S.
Meantime, Fiat has begun talks with General Motors Corp. about joining forces in Europe and Latin America, people familiar with the matters said, a surprise move that could have profound implications for the restructuring of GM and Chrysler. GM and Fiat have begun discussions about the Italian company buying a majority stake in Opel, the heart of GM's European unit, these people said.
But no GM deal would go forward until Fiat's plans with Chrysler are settled. Fiat has said it wants to take an initial 20% stake in Chrysler.
A Chrysler bankruptcy filing, while long expected by some, would nonetheless represent a watershed moment in Detroit's long decline as the first such move among the once-dominant Big Three auto makers. GM is working through similar issues and could be forced to file for bankruptcy in May.
In either Chrysler scenario, the impact would ripple through the supply chain of car dealers, parts makers and others, as well as the economies of Midwestern states. The Obama administration said a bankruptcy proceeding wasn't inevitable, with officials insisting that a successful outcome outside of court was still possible.
"In a negotiation like this, everything is speculation until there's a deal," said an administration official. "It should surprise no one that the administration is planning on contingencies, but we remain focused on the goal and engaged with all stakeholders to bring Chrysler and Fiat to a working partnership."
Fiat negotiators also believe Chrysler can steer clear of bankruptcy. "If we reach a deal with all the banks, there simply is no need," one person said.
But Chrysler's chief financial officer told major lenders Wednesday that even if a deal can be worked out between the government and lenders, the company still will need to file for bankruptcy to seal a Fiat alliance, said people familiar with the situation. The executive, Ron Kolka, told lenders that a provision of U.S. bankruptcy code known as section 363 would allow Fiat to pick which brands, plants and dealership agreements it wants to keep, said these people.
The idea of linking GM with Fiat, on top of a Fiat-Chrysler union, opens the door to a restructuring of much more global scope than the car makers and Obama administration had envisioned.
Reorganizing three auto makers on three continents could move the world-wide car industry a big step toward the kind of large-scale consolidation that long has been overdue. For years, auto makers have struggled with excess capacity that has fostered intense price competition and squeezed profits.
The problem has festered because stronger car makers have steadily added plants while governments often have stepped in to prop up ailing car companies to preserve jobs.
Any bid to restructure three auto makers is likely to prove highly complex and risky for the companies involved and the Obama administration. Chrysler is in such bad shape precisely because its cross-border merger with Daimler AG ended in failure after eight years.
Obama advisers said they wouldn't oppose Fiat moving to acquire Opel, which would ease the strain on GM's finances. But the administration doesn't appear to be considering a wider alliance between Fiat and GM.

Officials with President Barack Obama's auto task force have repeatedly dismissed talk of a potential GM-Chrysler merger, with or without Fiat, saying they saw little logic in bringing together two companies reeling under similar strains.
Both GM and Chrysler have needed billions of dollars in government loans since the beginning of the year to stay in business. Fiat is in better shape but is also struggling. On Thursday, it reported a quarterly net loss of €410 million ($531 million), compared with a net profit of €405 million in the same period a year earlier. The result was worse than analysts' expectations for a loss of €300 million.
The administration's task force has told Chrysler it must reach a deal by May 1 to slash labor costs with the UAW, work out an agreement with secured lenders to cut its debt and finalize a Fiat alliance.
Chrysler's lenders are owed $6.9 billion. The last government offer to cut that debt left the U.S. and lenders at least $3 billion apart. The two sides are also far from agreement on how big an ownership stake in Chrysler the lenders would get.
Under the government plan, a restructured Chrysler would be owned by Fiat, the lenders, the UAW and the Treasury, said people familiar with the talks.
The UAW, Chrysler and the Treasury have reached a tentative agreement to partially protect union members' pension and retiree health-care benefits under bankruptcy, said these people. The deal needs to be ratified by union members and courts.
Under the agreement, the Treasury or Chrysler, if it returns to profitability, would pay in cash half the $10.6 billion the company owes a retiree health-care fund. The remainder would be paid in an undetermined amount of Chrysler equity.
For Fiat, a deal with GM, meantime, would significantly strengthen the company's presence in markets it already serves. But any GM alliance remains in limbo until Fiat resolves the Chrysler negotiations, said people familiar with the situation.
By negotiating with the two Detroit car companies at once, Fiat Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne is making a big double bet. Mr. Marchionne made it clear last year that he wants to boost Fiat's capacity from its current 2.2 million cars a year to between 5.5 and six million cars a year.
Fiat considers GM's assets complementary to its pursuit of a Chrysler stake because the car maker will only truly propel itself to the big leagues of the global market if it has a strong U.S. presence, said people familiar with the matter.
During a conference call after Fiat released financial results, Mr. Marchionne said Fiat was interested in Chrysler "in its totality."

—Marcus Walker and Neil King Jr. contributed to this article.Write to Jeffrey McCracken at [email protected], John D. Stoll at [email protected] and Stacy Meichtry at [email protected]



Stop Loss? No, Thanks!!!
5 Gennaio 2009
Ford Loss Smaller Than Estimates as Cash Use Drops (Update1)

By Keith Naughton

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., striving to remain the only U.S. automaker not on government aid, posted a first- quarter loss that beat analysts’ estimates as it reduced its cash consumption. The shares rose in early trading.
Excluding items the second-largest U.S. automaker considers one-time costs, the loss was $1.8 billion, or 75 cents a share, narrower than the $1.24 average of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
“Ford is doing a good job of managing through this crisis, but they’re not out of the woods yet,” said Mirko Mikelic, portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in Grand Rapids, Michigan, who owns bonds of the automaker’s credit unit. “The cash-burn rate will decide whether they have to go the government.”
Ford benefited from $1.9 billion in cost reductions, with about half the savings coming from more-efficient manufacturing and engineering, and $700 million in price improvements, in part by offering fewer incentives. Cash use in automotive operations was $3.7 billion, a decrease from $7.2 billion in the fourth quarter, Ford said today in a statement.
Ford rose 75 cents, or 17 percent, to $5.24 at 7:58 a.m. before regular New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares more than doubled in the past seven weeks in New York trading as General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC worked to avert bankruptcy.
Savings, Sales
The company also reached deals to cut labor costs by $500 million a year and debt by 38 percent. Still, Ford’s U.S. sales fell 43 percent, contributing to its largest first-quarter loss since 1992.
The net loss was $1.4 billion, or 60 cents a share, compared with net income of $70 million, or 3 cents, a year earlier, the company said today.
Sales fell to $24.8 billion from $39.2 billion as Ford slashed North American production by half. The average analyst estimate was for $23.2 billion.
“This is a very, very difficult environment,” Chief Financial Officer Lewis Booth told reporters at Ford’s headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan. He said the company is preparing for the possibility of bankruptcy filings at GM or Chrysler.
“Of course we’re concerned, there are risks about being disadvantaged,” Booth said. “We won’t be victims in this, we’ll manage our issues; where we see competitive issues, we will work on them.”
Credit Line
Ford drew down a $10.1 billion credit line and cut its debt by $9.9 billion. Ford reported that it had $21.3 billion in automotive cash at the end of the quarter, up from $13.4 billion at the end of 2008.
Ford will end the year with $14.5 billion in cash, enough to remain self-sufficient, said Brian Johnson, a Barclays Capital analyst in Chicago. He expected Ford to consume $3.4 billion in the quarter.
“If you don’t need government cash, you don’t have to worry about waking up with Tim Geithner in your bed,” said Johnson, referring to the Treasury secretary. “The first rule in dealing with the government is there are no rules.”
GM and Chrysler operating with $17.4 billion in federal aid, are working against government-mandated deadlines to gain additional support. GM has until June 1 to come up with a long- term viability plan, while Chrysler must form an alliance with Italy’s Fiat SpA by the end of this month. Each automaker has said it might have to declare bankruptcy.
Ford could pick up business from the bankruptcy of its Detroit-area rivals, Johnson wrote yesterday in a report. He rates the company’s shares “underweight/neutral.”
Potential Opportunity
“Ford may actually benefit from the market-share losses as it picks up ‘Buy American’ consumers who may shun the other two companies (either on political grounds of not supporting bailouts or on concerns of purchasing from a bankrupt company),” Johnson wrote.
The automaker has been able to forgo U.S. aid because it borrowed $23 billion in 2006 before credit markets froze. As collateral for that financing, which Chief Executive Office Alan Mulally called “the world’s largest home equity loan,” Ford put up all major assets, including its headquarters and blue oval logo.
Ford lost a record $14.7 billion in 2008, and analysts expect the company to be unprofitable this year and next. Mulally has said he expects to break even by 2011.
The company’s prospects will improve this year as sales increase in South America and Europe, helped in part by government incentives encouraging buyers to trade in old models, Johnson said. He also doesn’t expect Ford to cut U.S. production as deeply as GM, which plans to shut down 13 North American assembly plants for as long as 9 weeks in May through July.
‘Firming Outlook’
“Our confidence in Ford is less in the first quarter and more in the firming outlook for production in the second quarter and third quarter,” Johnson said. “Reducing the cash burn is good for your credit and increases your chances for survival.”
The automaker’s 7.45 percent bonds due July 2031 climbed 1 cent to 40.5 cents on the dollar, yielding 18.9 percent, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
To contact the reporter on this story: Keith Naughton in Dearborn, Michigan, at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 24, 2009 08:02 EDT


Del PIG non si butta nulla
7 Gennaio 2009
Vado parzialmente OT per chiedervi se state pensando di alleggerire certe posizioni (penso in particolare a quelle sulle banche americane) in previsione dell'impatto di un Ch11 di GM.
Ho l'impressione che molti titoli potrebbero riprendersi ben più bassi di quanto siano ora... che ne dite?


Forumer storico
6 Gennaio 2009
nel bilancio Ford la voce "cash and cash equivalents" e' suddivisa in due voci: cash e marketable securities. Avevo sempre pensato che le "marketable securities" fossero obbligazioni o titoli di stato , ma ora sospetto invece che siano cartolarizzazioni di crediti commerciali in attesa di essere piazzate sul mercato. Con questo trucco la Ford fa passare per cash quello che in realta' e' un receivable , cioe' un credito verso clienti.


Forumer storico
6 Gennaio 2009
L'equivalente del prezzo realizzabile dalla vendita delle auto parcheggiate sui piazzali in attesa di un acquirente ?
La famosa parked liquidity :lol: ....speriamo non ci leggano senno' alla prossima trimestrale il cash ce lo ritroviamo suddiviso in tre voci anziche' due :lol:


Stop Loss? No, Thanks!!!
5 Gennaio 2009
nel bilancio Ford la voce "cash and cash equivalents" e' suddivisa in due voci: cash e marketable securities. Avevo sempre pensato che le "marketable securities" fossero obbligazioni o titoli di stato , ma ora sospetto invece che siano cartolarizzazioni di crediti commerciali in attesa di essere piazzate sul mercato. Con questo trucco la Ford fa passare per cash quello che in realta' e' un receivable , cioe' un credito verso clienti.
Pagine 66 e 76-77 del bilancio ...sono divise....e su marketable securities ci sono anche ABS.....ma non è cassa


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