Daily Technical Analysis | Pagina 7

Discussione in 'Trading Systems, Econometria' iniziata da xtreamforex, 15 Febbraio 2019.

    26 Novembre 2019
  1. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex XtreamForex

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    Technical Overview of AUD/USD and NZD/USD Currency Pair

    AUD USD

    AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6777.

    FED Chair Speech affects USD depending on the speech rhetoric. If the speech is seen as an intention to raise the rates at the next FOMC meeting, this has a positive impact on USD and vice versa.

    The FED Chair's statements have the greatest impact on the market compared to other members of the FED Board of Governors.

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Speech may contain information about the expected change in the bank's interest rates or in the monetary policy.

    The Aussie dollar, a G-7 proxy for China, is not impressed by reports of US-China trade talks gaining momentum. AUD/USD failed to take out key average hurdle despite renewed trade optimism. RBA's Debelle said slower wage growth is a new norm in Australia.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6769 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6761. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6793 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6801.

    NZD USD


    NZD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6416.

    Retail Sales m/m reflects a change in New Zealand's retail sales in the reported month compared to the previous one. The calculation is adjusted for inflation. The index is often referred to as the consumer spending indicator, which allows assessing inflation in New Zealand. The indicator growth can have a positive effect on NZD quotes.

    Consumer Confidence Index displays the level of consumer confidence in the stability of the country's economy. It is based on the data from the monthly survey of more than 5000 households and is designed to evaluate the relative financial status, purchasing power and confidence of an average consumer. The survey consists of five questions, two of which are associated with the current economic conditions, while three deal with expectations. Since 60% of the survey has to do with expectations, the indicator is considered to be a leading market indicator. The indicator growth assumes an increase in consumer spending.


    • NZD/USD is facing pullback risks after multiple failures at the 100-day MA hurdle.

    • A close above the key average will likely invite stronger buying pressures.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6400 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6392. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6426, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6434.

    For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
     
  2. 6 Dicembre 2019
  3. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex XtreamForex

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    Technical Overview of GBP/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair

    GBP USD

    GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3155.

    · Flat in a 1.3153/1.3161 range, but decent interest once Asia fully opened

    · EUR/GBP saw modest volumes with a very tight 0.8438/0.8341 range

    · Conservative election victory expectations attracted fresh demand this week

    · Initial significant resistance at 1.3168/90, 50% 2018/19 fall and May high

    · 1.3168 capped in NY, but is under pressure - strong resistance into 1.3200

    · Close above 1.3200 would be a strong positive into the election next week

    · Sustained 1.3200 break would open the door to the 1.3380 2019 high in March

    · Close below the prior 1.3000 range high needed to undermine topside bias

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3120 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3105. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3166 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3181.

    USD JPY

    USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.75.

    USD/JPY's CTA positioning and notes that it's mainly close to neutral and sidelined around current levels.

    "CTAs having held back on going long in the USD/JPY market (buying USD and selling yen) during the recent risk-on phase, they have managed to avoid simultaneous stock selling and yen buying.

    CTAs' USD/JPY positions are close to neutral at present, and they are not currently moving either to buy or to sell.

    "With the latent risk of yen appreciation being suppressed, if fundamentals-oriented investors begin tentatively dip-buying below 23,000, this downward move by the Nikkei 225 could be brought to a close relatively soon.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.66 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.58. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.92, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.00.

    Important Economic Events of the day

    · JPY: Household Spending y/y

    · USD: Nonfarm Payrolls

    · USD: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

    · CAD: Employment Change

    For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
     
  4. 27 Dicembre 2019
  5. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex XtreamForex

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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD and USD/CAD Currency Pair

    EUR USD

    EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1096.

    • EUR/USD is gaining ground on broad-based dollar selling.
    • The pair is closing on a crucial trendline hurdle at 1.1140.
    • With gold rising amid trade optimism, a breakout looks likely.

    The easing of trade tensions is good news for Germany. The 18-month US-China trade war had pushed the Eurozone's manufacturing powerhouse and biggest economy to the brink of recession.

    As a result, the dollar could continue to lose ground in Friday's European session – more so, as the equity market buoyancy is expected to continue with Amazon, the e-commerce giant, reporting record holiday season.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1087 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1080. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1107 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1114.

    USD CAD

    USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3121.

    • USD/CAD on track for a test below 1.31 the figure on firm commodity complex.
    • Phase-one trade deal between the US and China is in the making, supporting commodity currencies.

    Funds are under pressure as the commodity complex catches a bid on the so-called 'phase-one' trade deal that is scheduled to be signed in January between the US and China.

    The trade, ownership and technology practices of Chinese companies for the past two decades will not vanish overnight, nor will optimism of US and Canadian executives return with two signatures.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3100 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3087. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3144, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3157.

    Important Economic Events of the Day

    • JPY: Retail Sales m/m
    • USD: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
    • USD: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
    • GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m

    More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
     
  6. 30 Dicembre 2019
  7. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex XtreamForex

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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP / USD Currency Pair

    EUR /USD


    EUR traded Higher against USD and closed at 1.1175.



    EUR/USD is attempting a convincing break above 1.12 amid broad-based US dollar weakness.

    The currency pair is currently trading at 1.1196, representing a 0.20% gain on the day, having hit a high of 1.1210 in Asia.

    Dollar's bearish trend continued in Asia and looks to have legs, as gold, a hard currency, is reporting a 3% gain on a month-to-date basis in dollar terms and is expected to put on a good show next year. The trend in the gold market is widely used as an indicator to confirm the bullish/bearish price action in the US dollar.

    EUR/USD's bullish case looks stronger with the weekly chart reporting an upside break of the trendline connecting September 2018 and June 2019 highs.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1196 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1195. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1200 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1201.

    GBP / USD

    GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3076

    · GBP/USD remains on the front foot for the fifth consecutive day to the highest since December 19.

    · The Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s former adviser Trixy Sanderson signaled the EU’s preparations for a no-deal departure.

    · The market lost interest in the greenback as phase-one calls rise but US-China political divide remains.


    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3075 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3068. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3097, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3104.


    Important Economic Events of the Day

    • · USD: Pending Home Sales m/m
    • · USD: Pending Home Sales y / y
    • · USD: Goods Trade Balance

    More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
     
  8. 7 Gennaio 2020
  9. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex XtreamForex

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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP / USD Currency Pair

    EUR /USD

    • EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1193
    The market is well placed to retest resistance at 1.1197- 1.1240 – namely the 55-week ma, the 2019-2020 down channel and the recent high. This guards the 200-week ma at 1.1360 which continues to represent a critical breakpoint medium term.”

    “Dips lower are well supported by the 55 and 20-day ma at 1.1095/1.1065 and the 3-month uptrend at 1.1045.”

    “Failure at the uptrend would target the 1.0981 29th November low.”

    According to the Analysis, the pair is expected to find support at 1.1167 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1156 The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1205 and a rise through could take it to the next the resistance level of 1.1216.

    GBP / USD

    GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3167

    “We look for dips lower to remain well supported by the 55-day ma at 1.2987. The low on the 23rd December was 1.2908 and while above here we will assume an upside bias to retest the December high at 1.3515.”

    “The December high at 1.3515 guards the September 2017 high and 38.2% retracement (of the move down from 2014) at 1.3658/68. This guards the more important 1.3918 2007 -2020 downtrend.”

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2841 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2604. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3461 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3607.

    Important Economic Events of the Day

    · EUR Retail Sales m/m.

    · EUR Retail Sales and / and.

    · GBP 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction.

    · USD Trade Balance.

    More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
     
    Ultima modifica: 7 Gennaio 2020
  10. 15 Gennaio 2020
  11. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex XtreamForex

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    Technical Overview of GBP/USD and EUR/USD Currency Pair

    GBP USD

    GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3017.

    GBP/USD looks to extend the bounce towards 1.3050 ahead of the UK CPI report, as broad-based US dollar weakness and bullish technical set up underpin the sentiment around the spot.

    • Flat - closed up 0.2%, as expectations of a Jan BoE cut cooled

    • Inflation data on today and retail sales Friday will be key for sterling

    • Despite bounce daily charts are negative, though at low end of recent ranges

    • Momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head lower and 21 day Bolli bands slip

    • 1.2900, December low then 1.2887 lower 21 day Bolli band are major support

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2973 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2954. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3033, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3052.

    EUR USD

    EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1127.


    • EUR/USD barely moved in Asia trading in a 1.1126/31 range

    • Most of the action in regionals as USD moved up on Mnuchin comments\

    • Resistance at 10-day MA at 1.1140 with option selling ahead of 1.1150

    • Large option maturities 1.1100/50 defining recent range

    • Break above 1.1150 targets 61.8 fibo of 1.1240/1.1085 at 1.1181

    • EZ IP later today, but US-China trade deal likely to be main event

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1111 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1101. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1141 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1151.

    Economic events of the Day

    · USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

    · USD EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change

    · USD FOMC Member Harker Speech


    More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
     
  12. 21 Gennaio 2020
  13. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex XtreamForex

    Registrato:
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    Technical Overview of EUR/USD and USD/JPY and Currency Pair

    EUR USD

    EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1094

    · Touch softer - closed up 0.05% after recording a fresh 1.1076 Jan low

    · UK to set out goals for EU trade talks - PM Johnson's spokesman

    · Charts show momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs edging lower - negative setup

    · 1.1080/85, 61.8% of the Nov-Dec bounce and Jan double bottom held on close

    · Sustained 1.1075 break a bearish signal, next stop 1.1042 76.4% Nov-Dec rise

    · 1.1113, 38.2% of the January dip and 5 DMA is initial resistance

    · 1.1100 350M, 1.1125 230M, and 1.1140-50 1.5BLN strikes cap

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1082 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1076. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1102 and a rise through could take it to the next the resistance level of 1.1108

    USD JPY

    USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 110.18.

    USD/JPY extends losses while taking rounds to 110.00 during early Tuesday. The pair shrugged off the BOJ’s widely anticipated monetary policy decision as risk aversion seems to be in the play.

    · USD/JPY extends the recent losses despite BOJ holding its monetary policy intact while keeping forward guidance on interest rates intact.

    · News of coronavirus outbreak recently triggered risk-off; trade-positive news from the Chinese Commerce Ministry failed to please buyers.

    · Geopolitical plays in the Middle East, trade headlines will welcome the US traders returning from the extended weekend.

    According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 110.13 and a fall-through could take it to the next support level of 110.10. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.21 and a rise through could take it to the next the resistance level of 110.24

    Economic Events of the Day

    · JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision

    · JPY BoJ Press Conference

    · GBP Claimant Count Change

    · EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator

    For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!
     

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