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shabib
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MASGUI ti dico solo che mi e' piaciuto molto quello che hai detto adesso e quello che tante volte hai postato
gipa69
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CAN INCREASED REGULATIONS STOP WALL STREET?
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/16/2009 9:41:41 AM Eastern Time
NEW YORK, NY The market found a way to rally again yesterday, this time on word that Warren Buffett is buying stocks. The world's best value investor sees value after equities have climbed more than 50.0% off the lows (it was interesting to hear a few people still call this a bear market rally on TV yesterday). I do think that there are cheap stocks that are up big already but I suspect a Buffett endorsement has more to do with his macro assessment of the economy. Plus, I guess he's not getting anymore sweetheart deals. I have to say that yesterday's session was impressive because of the underlying action. Regional banks were up nicely on convincing volume. MasterCard (MA) looked impressive as well. Then, there was the action in agricultural stocks led by Potash (POT). A day after citing a 38.0% drop in farmer income, and a significant dip in fall demand, Potash surged on a spike in volume.
I'm positive there will be further consolidation in the space. In the meantime, Ben Bernanke says that the recession is "likely over" and consumers are coming back. There is no doubt that consumers are stepping up but I think they will be smarter than in the past and more cautious, at least for the moment. Make no mistake, all of this fear is still in the air but it's not as heavy as it once was. Still, the price of gold continues to surge and that isn't a vote of confidence. There are parallel messages coming from the market these days. One message is that the worst is over and the other message is we aren't out of the woods yet.
Will More Regulations Stop the Street?
President Obama's plans to clamp down on Wall Street are as vague as it is ominous but it's based on punitive punishment more than so-called reform, and that's frightening. The saddest part of it all is the best deterrent is punishment. People respect laws but fear punishment, but on Wall Street the worst thing in the world is to be kicked out of the game For the life of me, I can't understand why our government fattened up Wall Street to recover to the point where even a horribly run company like Citigroup (C) could claim their "best quarter since 2007" for the first quarter of 2009 when Main Street job losses were roaring at more than 700,000 per month. Even now, Wall Street has paid back billions even as half a million people file for first-time unemployment benefits weekly. So what the heck is going on? Why were banks saved? Why is the Federal Reserve essentially pumping money into them?
I don't buy the notion of systemic risk. If taxpayers had been given trillions of dollars in direct individual bailouts and their liabilities were backed up and guaranteed by the Federal government, letting all the banks go out of business wouldn't have been a big deal at all. Let's face it, bad assets are still bad assets, home values continue to decrease, unemployment continues to climb, and consumer credit is down ten of the last twelve months. I can only surmise that the government wants to control banks as much as possible without putting them completely out of business. The basic tenets of socialism is the control of means of production, allocation of resources, and equal access to resources for all; perhaps this is how it's done in the 21st century. Rigid rules could become a maze through which funds could be diverted, projects enacted, and pressure exerted.
Wall Street sees the writing on the Wall (no pun intended) and is setting up shop in Washington, DC sort of like Hannibal bringing the fight to the Alps. Of course Wall Street, still a convenient scapegoat, isn't ruffling feathers but knows without a counterattack everything from salaries to profit margins can be controlled by Washington. Such control would make Wall Street open to blackmail at home but also a significantly weaker competitive position in the global economy. The idea to level European-style limits on American investment banks is suicidal. After the hastily cobbled together Sarbanes-Oxley legislation was implemented the city of London overtook Wall Street in initial public offerings. It seems like the President and his continental European pals are working from an antiquated playbook on how to make the planet a one-world government.
Not only is Hong Kong and Singapore waiting in the wings but places like Abu Dhabi know they would have openings to become real players in the world's financial markets while Wall Street is made to go around huge cash reserves and limited profit-making abilities. My hope is that somehow by shipping operations to Washington, DC not only will Wall Street be able to go on the defensive but maybe even on the offensive. In the first quarter of 2009, Goldman Sachs (GS) made $1.81 billion in profits on $943 billion in revenue. The only business segment that saw an increase in revenue was trading, where fixed-income trading revenue surged to $6.56 billion or 34.0% over the previous record best quarterly results. All other segments of the company's business were down by double-digit percentages or more on a year over year basis.
There is no way that Goldman Sachs and other (investment) banks could have repaid TARP money without so-called risky behavior. The company pays a 31.0% tax rate which put $1.63 billion into the government's coffers in the first half of the year. Yet, somehow the government is going to get involved with Wall Street and make sure those evil bastards don't put people that are already spending more than they make, have little or no savings, and generally live beyond their means at risk.
Proponents of more regulations and government control of Wall Street through ownership/intimidation will not say how much money these firms will be forced to hold onto and how limited their exposure to certain instruments will be, but they say such action is needed ASAP. Taxpayer money has been used to fatten up Wall Street like a Thanksgiving turkey; the only question is when is it going to be carved up. First, it has to be prepared, and that's where new rules and regulations come in. Of course, rainmakers on the Street aren't walking around going gobble-gobble and are fighting back. For sure, this action means less money for Main Street, and it still doesn't prevent taxpayers from being on the hook when the next crisis arrives.
For all of the hooting and hollering, Wall Street bought subprime loans that allowed millions to own homes. Obviously, all of these Wall Street firms were holding a ton of these loans or else there wouldn't have been an across-the-board meltdown. By putting up dams that will impede the flow of funds in the system, the White House has assured itself of having to facilitate 90.0% of housing loans, a role once dominated by private banks that on average used to do 60.0% of mortgages. That means lesser home ownership and risks once taken by professionals going straight to taxpayers; maybe it's a way to cut to the chase. Wall Street and Washington are gearing up for a modern day Punic War, and the rest of America will be among the biggest causalities.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index for August increased by 0.4%, coming in line with consensus, while the core rate (excluding food and energy) increased by 0.1%, also falling in line with consensus. Consumer prices are not rising as quickly as producer prices, and the core rate of 0.1% was very modest. Nevertheless, those fearing deflation can rest a little bit. The question now is if there is enough consumer confidence for rising producer prices to be passed onto the consumer.
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/16/2009 9:41:41 AM Eastern Time
NEW YORK, NY The market found a way to rally again yesterday, this time on word that Warren Buffett is buying stocks. The world's best value investor sees value after equities have climbed more than 50.0% off the lows (it was interesting to hear a few people still call this a bear market rally on TV yesterday). I do think that there are cheap stocks that are up big already but I suspect a Buffett endorsement has more to do with his macro assessment of the economy. Plus, I guess he's not getting anymore sweetheart deals. I have to say that yesterday's session was impressive because of the underlying action. Regional banks were up nicely on convincing volume. MasterCard (MA) looked impressive as well. Then, there was the action in agricultural stocks led by Potash (POT). A day after citing a 38.0% drop in farmer income, and a significant dip in fall demand, Potash surged on a spike in volume.
I'm positive there will be further consolidation in the space. In the meantime, Ben Bernanke says that the recession is "likely over" and consumers are coming back. There is no doubt that consumers are stepping up but I think they will be smarter than in the past and more cautious, at least for the moment. Make no mistake, all of this fear is still in the air but it's not as heavy as it once was. Still, the price of gold continues to surge and that isn't a vote of confidence. There are parallel messages coming from the market these days. One message is that the worst is over and the other message is we aren't out of the woods yet.
Will More Regulations Stop the Street?
President Obama's plans to clamp down on Wall Street are as vague as it is ominous but it's based on punitive punishment more than so-called reform, and that's frightening. The saddest part of it all is the best deterrent is punishment. People respect laws but fear punishment, but on Wall Street the worst thing in the world is to be kicked out of the game For the life of me, I can't understand why our government fattened up Wall Street to recover to the point where even a horribly run company like Citigroup (C) could claim their "best quarter since 2007" for the first quarter of 2009 when Main Street job losses were roaring at more than 700,000 per month. Even now, Wall Street has paid back billions even as half a million people file for first-time unemployment benefits weekly. So what the heck is going on? Why were banks saved? Why is the Federal Reserve essentially pumping money into them?
I don't buy the notion of systemic risk. If taxpayers had been given trillions of dollars in direct individual bailouts and their liabilities were backed up and guaranteed by the Federal government, letting all the banks go out of business wouldn't have been a big deal at all. Let's face it, bad assets are still bad assets, home values continue to decrease, unemployment continues to climb, and consumer credit is down ten of the last twelve months. I can only surmise that the government wants to control banks as much as possible without putting them completely out of business. The basic tenets of socialism is the control of means of production, allocation of resources, and equal access to resources for all; perhaps this is how it's done in the 21st century. Rigid rules could become a maze through which funds could be diverted, projects enacted, and pressure exerted.
Wall Street sees the writing on the Wall (no pun intended) and is setting up shop in Washington, DC sort of like Hannibal bringing the fight to the Alps. Of course Wall Street, still a convenient scapegoat, isn't ruffling feathers but knows without a counterattack everything from salaries to profit margins can be controlled by Washington. Such control would make Wall Street open to blackmail at home but also a significantly weaker competitive position in the global economy. The idea to level European-style limits on American investment banks is suicidal. After the hastily cobbled together Sarbanes-Oxley legislation was implemented the city of London overtook Wall Street in initial public offerings. It seems like the President and his continental European pals are working from an antiquated playbook on how to make the planet a one-world government.
Not only is Hong Kong and Singapore waiting in the wings but places like Abu Dhabi know they would have openings to become real players in the world's financial markets while Wall Street is made to go around huge cash reserves and limited profit-making abilities. My hope is that somehow by shipping operations to Washington, DC not only will Wall Street be able to go on the defensive but maybe even on the offensive. In the first quarter of 2009, Goldman Sachs (GS) made $1.81 billion in profits on $943 billion in revenue. The only business segment that saw an increase in revenue was trading, where fixed-income trading revenue surged to $6.56 billion or 34.0% over the previous record best quarterly results. All other segments of the company's business were down by double-digit percentages or more on a year over year basis.
There is no way that Goldman Sachs and other (investment) banks could have repaid TARP money without so-called risky behavior. The company pays a 31.0% tax rate which put $1.63 billion into the government's coffers in the first half of the year. Yet, somehow the government is going to get involved with Wall Street and make sure those evil bastards don't put people that are already spending more than they make, have little or no savings, and generally live beyond their means at risk.
Proponents of more regulations and government control of Wall Street through ownership/intimidation will not say how much money these firms will be forced to hold onto and how limited their exposure to certain instruments will be, but they say such action is needed ASAP. Taxpayer money has been used to fatten up Wall Street like a Thanksgiving turkey; the only question is when is it going to be carved up. First, it has to be prepared, and that's where new rules and regulations come in. Of course, rainmakers on the Street aren't walking around going gobble-gobble and are fighting back. For sure, this action means less money for Main Street, and it still doesn't prevent taxpayers from being on the hook when the next crisis arrives.
For all of the hooting and hollering, Wall Street bought subprime loans that allowed millions to own homes. Obviously, all of these Wall Street firms were holding a ton of these loans or else there wouldn't have been an across-the-board meltdown. By putting up dams that will impede the flow of funds in the system, the White House has assured itself of having to facilitate 90.0% of housing loans, a role once dominated by private banks that on average used to do 60.0% of mortgages. That means lesser home ownership and risks once taken by professionals going straight to taxpayers; maybe it's a way to cut to the chase. Wall Street and Washington are gearing up for a modern day Punic War, and the rest of America will be among the biggest causalities.
Economic Data
Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index for August increased by 0.4%, coming in line with consensus, while the core rate (excluding food and energy) increased by 0.1%, also falling in line with consensus. Consumer prices are not rising as quickly as producer prices, and the core rate of 0.1% was very modest. Nevertheless, those fearing deflation can rest a little bit. The question now is if there is enough consumer confidence for rising producer prices to be passed onto the consumer.
Madiba
Forumer storico
September 16
wednesday update
SHORT TERM: upside momentum pushes the market higher, DOW +108
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher and closed +1.45%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the CPI was reported at +0.4% v 0.0%, and the Current accounts deficit was -$98.8 bln v -$104.5 bln. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported +0.8% v +1.0%: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm. The market opened higher at SPX 1057, pulled back to yesterday's close at 1053 by 10:00, and then resumed the rally. At 1:00 the Home builders index was reported at 19 v 18, still quite low. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1068, pulled back a bit to 1065 by 3:00, and then closed at a new high SPX 1069. For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude gained $1.45, Gold rallied $13.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX notches up to 1061 and then 1041, with resistance now at 1090 and then 1107. Yes, we've added a pivot we had overlooked. Short term momentum is getting extremely overbought, two days before options expiration. Tomorrow, the weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, along with Housing starts. Then at 10:00 the Philly FED, followed by Q2 Flow of funds at noon.
Was alerted today through email that one of the prominent EWers has begun to vacillate between bear and bull market. This rally from SPX 667 certainly has been quite impressive. Without going into the pros and cons of such a position, I would like to post below what we posted in the weekend report on March 14th, 2009.
wednesday update
SHORT TERM: upside momentum pushes the market higher, DOW +108
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher and closed +1.45%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the CPI was reported at +0.4% v 0.0%, and the Current accounts deficit was -$98.8 bln v -$104.5 bln. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported +0.8% v +1.0%: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm. The market opened higher at SPX 1057, pulled back to yesterday's close at 1053 by 10:00, and then resumed the rally. At 1:00 the Home builders index was reported at 19 v 18, still quite low. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1068, pulled back a bit to 1065 by 3:00, and then closed at a new high SPX 1069. For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude gained $1.45, Gold rallied $13.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX notches up to 1061 and then 1041, with resistance now at 1090 and then 1107. Yes, we've added a pivot we had overlooked. Short term momentum is getting extremely overbought, two days before options expiration. Tomorrow, the weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, along with Housing starts. Then at 10:00 the Philly FED, followed by Q2 Flow of funds at noon.
Was alerted today through email that one of the prominent EWers has begun to vacillate between bear and bull market. This rally from SPX 667 certainly has been quite impressive. Without going into the pros and cons of such a position, I would like to post below what we posted in the weekend report on March 14th, 2009.
f4f
翠鸟科
President Obama's plans to clamp down on Wall Street are as vague as it is ominous but it's based on punitive punishment more than so-called reform, and that's frightening. The saddest part of it all is the best deterrent is punishment. People respect laws but fear punishment, but on Wall Street the worst thing in the world is to be kicked out of the game For the life of me, I can't understand why our government fattened up Wall Street to recover to the point where even a horribly run company like Citigroup (C) could claim their "best quarter since 2007" for the first quarter of 2009 when Main Street job losses were roaring at more than 700,000 per month. Even now, Wall Street has paid back billions even as half a million people file for first-time unemployment benefits weekly. So what the heck is going on? Why were banks saved? Why is the Federal Reserve essentially pumping money into them?
vero
Let's face it, bad assets are still bad assets, home values continue to decrease, unemployment continues to climb, and consumer credit is down ten of the last twelve months. I can only surmise that the government wants to control banks as much as possible without putting them completely out of business. The basic tenets of socialism is the control of means of production, allocation of resources, and equal access to resources for all; perhaps this is how it's done in the 21st century.
There is no way that Goldman Sachs and other (investment) banks could have repaid TARP money without so-called risky behavior.
sto tizio, let aside che non è un permabull, le dice chiare e tonde
vero
Let's face it, bad assets are still bad assets, home values continue to decrease, unemployment continues to climb, and consumer credit is down ten of the last twelve months. I can only surmise that the government wants to control banks as much as possible without putting them completely out of business. The basic tenets of socialism is the control of means of production, allocation of resources, and equal access to resources for all; perhaps this is how it's done in the 21st century.
There is no way that Goldman Sachs and other (investment) banks could have repaid TARP money without so-called risky behavior.
sto tizio, let aside che non è un permabull, le dice chiare e tonde
f4f
翠鸟科
f4f
翠鸟科
http://opinionidalmondo.investireoggi.it/troppo-grandi-per-fallire-1°-parte-1389.html
ottimo
il grafo dinamico è bellissimo .... e impressionante
aspetto la 2a parte
ottimo
il grafo dinamico è bellissimo .... e impressionante
aspetto la 2a parte