Bund e TBond: trichechi sulla Maginot VM 180 anni (1 Viewer)

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Japan Machine Orders Decline on Anticipated Slowdown (Update3)

By Jason Clenfield

Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's machinery orders fell more than expected in December as manufacturers scaled back investment in anticipation of slowing global economic growth.

Orders, an indicator of business spending in the next three to six months, slid 3.2 percent from November, when they sank 2.8 percent, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.9 percent drop.

Stocks fell after the report on concern Japan may be following the U.S. into a recession. Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga will discuss with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson how the Group of Seven nations can maintain global economic stability when they meet in Tokyo tomorrow.

``The trend still looks soft,'' said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at Lehman Brothers in Tokyo. ``With external demand likely slowing in coming quarters, there is a risk that the upturn in capital spending will peter out.''

The yen traded at 107.32 against the dollar at 11:37 a.m. in Tokyo, from 107.33 before the report. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.8 percent at the 11 a.m. morning break in Tokyo. The benchmark has slumped 14 percent this year.

For the quarter, orders rose 0.9 percent from the previous three months, slowing from a 2.5 percent gain in the third quarter. Orders fell 4 percent in 2007, the first decline since 2002 when the economy emerged from recession.

U.S. Economy

``There's no need to be pessimistic about the current state of machinery orders,'' Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said in Tokyo today. ``Still, the U.S. economy is slowing and we need to closely watch the first-quarter figure.''

Businesses surveyed said they expect a 3.5 percent increase in orders during the three months to March 31, an optimistic figure that contrasts with forecasts for slowing production in the first two months of the quarter.

Companies may be increasing orders to replace old equipment, which is why orders may increase even as global growth slows, according to Yoshihiko Senno, a Cabinet Office spokesman.

Other reports this week have shown the economy is losing steam. The government's broadest indicator of the economic outlook this week signaled for a fifth straight month that growth is losing steam.

Manufacturers plan to cut production in January and February, the first time they anticipate back-to-back declines since 2005, a Trade Ministry report showed last month. Each of Japan's three recessions since 1991 coincided with output slumps.

Investment Moderating

Business investment probably moderated in the fourth quarter as U.S. demand waned. Capital spending growth slowed to 0.9 percent in last three months of 2007 from 1.1 percent in the third quarter, economists predict the government's gross domestic product report to show on Feb. 14.

The risk of slower growth has diminished expectations that the Bank of Japan will push ahead with its policy of gradually raising interest rates. Investors see a 32 percent chance of a reduction in the benchmark rate from 0.5 percent by July, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. calculations using overnight interest-rate swaps.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield in Tokyo at [email protected]

Last Updated: February 7, 2008 21:49 EST

 

[f4f]

L'ultimo quote non esiste!


Gufi maledetti. Vada per la bannatura.

Poi proprio a Maastricht
Ci affonderanno per colpa vostra...



Ps. Il bund/btp dovrebbe essere ancora 40/42 bp. eonia/euribor sotto i 35 direi ad occhio (anche se non ve lo meritate)

goooooooooooooood morning bbbanda


è vero ebenEmail è a maaastrit

gufo owl ecc ecc
va che è il mercato che va dove vole esso lui
al massimo, noi si segueù
esagerando, si anticipa (ma a me non piace)



grazie per il dato sullo spread

 

[gipa69]

Direi che è evidente che il rallentamento USA sta colpendo un po tutti i mercati...

U.K. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Declined in December (Update3)

By Svenja O'Donnell

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly fell for a second month in December, adding to the argument for the Bank of England to lower interest rates as the economy cools.

Factory output fell 0.2 percent, compared with a 0.1 percent decline in November, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Economists forecast a 0.1 percent gain, according to the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. On the year, factory production was unchanged.

The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point today as policy makers sought to cushion the economy from slower growth and the housing market slump. The report suggests manufacturing, which accounts for 15 percent of gross domestic product, may be weaker in the first quarter.

``It's further evidence of the underlying cooling in the economy,'' said Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. ``We expect one more rate cut after today.''

Ten out of 13 categories of manufacturing fell on the month, led by the component which includes office furniture, recycling, games and toys, the statistics office said.

Economy `Concern'

Wolfson Microelectronics Plc, the U.K. maker of semiconductors for Apple Inc.'s iPods, said on Feb. 4 first- quarter revenue will miss analysts' estimates. ``The economic environment has become more of a concern,'' Chief Executive Officer Dave Shrigley said.

The pound fell after the report, and then extended declines after the rate decision with a drop of as much as 0.5 percent. The currency traded at $1.9444 as of 1:19 p.m. in London.

The pound has fallen about 9 percent against a basket of currencies weighted by the central bank to account for trade flows, making British goods less expensive overseas. FKI Plc, Europe's biggest maker of wire and rope for ships and oil rigs, said yesterday that full-year sales will rise by 25 percent on demand for lifting gear and generators.

Services, which account for three-quarters of the economy, have shown signs of resilience. A survey of service companies from banks to airlines by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply showed growth unexpectedly quickened for a second month in January.

Today's data is weaker than originally estimated for the purposes of calculating gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, the statistics office said. It will shave 0.04 percentage point off growth, which the government said Jan. 23 was 0.6 percent from the previous quarter.

Slower Growth

The change is ``probably not quite enough, on its own, to push down rounded estimates'' for expansion last quarter, Ben Broadbent, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London, said in an e-mailed note. Still, ``we expect GDP growth to slow to 0.3 percent in the first quarter.''

Economic growth will still slow to 1.8 percent this year, matching the weakest pace since 1992, according to a survey of economists by the Treasury. Banks have curbed lending to companies and restricted access to credit for consumers with a record 1.4 trillion pounds ($2.7 trillion) in debt.

The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee lowered the benchmark interest rate to 5.25 percent today, as predicted by 59 of the 61 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. One had forecast a half-point cut and one anticipated no change.

To contact the reporter on this story: Svenja O'Donnell in London at [email protected] .

Last Updated: February 7, 2008 08:25 EST

 

[gipa69]

barbon paper trade concluso con modesto guadagno.... ribadisco che comunque per me i mercati volatili sono i più redditizi.

 

[gipa69]

barbon paper trade concluso con modesto guadagno.... ribadisco che comunque per me i mercati volatili sono i più redditizi.

sottolineo il paper che poi magari potrei turbare qualche animo candido.... e non voglio che qualcuno si rovini a causa mia

 

[gipa69]

sottolineo il paper che poi magari potrei turbare qualche animo candido.... e non voglio che qualcuno si rovini a causa mia

e per invitare tutti a non fidarsi dei millantati trade ma nei fatti puramente virtuali avendo la fortuna di essere al terminale giusto vi posso postare la tipica pagina che questi ceffi postano per convincere gli inesperti che il trade è vero quando invece è solo un trade dichiarato:
diffidate gente diffidate....

 

[gipa69]

e per invitare tutti a non fidarsi dei millantati trade ma nei fatti puramente virtuali avendo la fortuna di essere al terminale giusto vi posso postare la tipica pagina che questi ceffi postano per convincere gli inesperti che il trade è vero quando invece è solo un trade dichiarato:
diffidate gente diffidate....

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.net/forum/immagini/1202461268papertrading.gif

Infine una considerazione sugli indici nei scorsi giorni:
l'influenza dell'operazione MSFT/YAHOO sugli indici USA ed Europei ha avuto un certo impatto e questo impatto dovrebbe essere depurato dall'analisi degli indici per poterne comprendere al meglio le cause delle varie sovra/sottoperformance..... oltre ovviamente all'andamento del cross.
Naturalmente si possono sbagliare le considerazioni ed i calcoli ma si deve sempre presumere la buona fede almeno che non si veda l'ora di sistemare il proprio "onore" da una presunta mancanza di rispetto.
Ahhhh l'ho fatto di proposito di non dare questi dettagli.

 

[f4f]

e per invitare tutti a non fidarsi dei millantati trade ma nei fatti puramente virtuali avendo la fortuna di essere al terminale giusto vi posso postare la tipica pagina che questi ceffi postano per convincere gli inesperti che il trade è vero quando invece è solo un trade dichiarato:
diffidate gente diffidate....

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.net/forum/immagini/1202461268papertrading.gif

aaaaahhhh guarda io non mi fido nenche di me
e a ragione, per di più
saprò ben io le hazzate c'ho fatto

 

[gipa69]

aaaaahhhh guarda io non mi fido nenche di me
e a ragione, per di più
saprò ben io le hazzate c'ho fatto

beh se pensi che a causa di problemi di linea non ho potuto usare il mio solito operatore e lo strumento che volevo utilizzare e sono dovuto andare sulle emergenze puoi immaginare lo stress.... sempre in paper ma sempre in stress lo stesso!!
comunque neache io mi fido di te!.... almeno fino a fine quaresima...

 

[gipa69]

Ocio ai bond assicurati.....

SCA’s bond insurance business, XL Capital Assurance, lost its crucial AAA rating on Thursday evening. But Moody’s didn’t just cut XLCA, the fourth largest bond insurer, from AAA to AA. It downgraded it by six notches.
The implications for other bond-insurers are troubling. Monoline downgrades have previously only been imagined as cuts of one or two notches, with the expectation being that a recovery might well be probable in the future.
Although XLCA’s situation is particularly dire relative to its size (it, like ACA, was heavily involved in CDO insurance) it does nonetheless bode ill for the two biggest players: Ambac and MBIA. Were they to be downgraded it would be bad enough, were they to be downgraded further than AA, it would be absolutely disastrous.
XCLA has contracts on around $154.2bn of debt, which will be cut by at least the same number of notches - to A3, according to Moody’s. In fact, you can view the massive lists of securities downgraded here (40,151 munis), here (103 structured) and here (137 corporate).
An instant impact then, irregardless of what bond prices do, will be that banks holding those insured bonds will have to stump up a great deal of extra regulatory capital. AAA rated bonds require very little. But under Basel II, the extra capital needed for riskier tranches is considerable. Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has a good take here.
And finally in Friday’s FT, Pimco’s Bill Gross has vivid words to put things in perspective:
That the monolines could shoulder this modern-day burden like a classical Greek Atlas was dubious from the start. How could Ambac, through the magic of its triple-A rating, with equity capital of less than $5bn, insure the debt of the state of California, the world’s sixth-largest economy? How could an investor in California’s municipal bonds be comforted by a company that during a potential liquidity crisis might find the capital markets closed to it, versus the nation’s largest state with its obvious ongoing taxing authority? Apply the same logic to the gargantuan size of the asset-backed market it has insured in recent years - subprimes and CDOs in the trillions of dollars - and you must come to the same logical conclusion: this is absurd.