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collegio dei patafisici
MBIA raises $1bn in equity
MBIA, the world’s largest bond insurer, on Thursday raised $1bn in equity in an effort to stave off cuts to its triple A credit ratings. The plans, underwritten by JPMorgan and Lehman Brothers and with a backstop from buyout group Warburg Pincus, were announced Wednesday as MBIA said it had increased its after-tax operating loss for the quarter ending in December by $65m to $472.8m. Bloomberg reports that MBIA increased the sale from a planned $750m, though accepted a lower price than it had anticipated. Rivals such as Ambac have yet to announce plans for finding fresh capital. Banks are in talks about a deal to bail out Ambac, as well as FGIC, the bond insurer. Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, said Wednesday that downgrades could have “adverse effects” on financial markets and the economy. In a separate FT comment article, Pimco’s Bill Gross says bailouts are merely short-term palliatives for monolines and won’t remedy the real problem.
MBIA, the world’s largest bond insurer, on Thursday raised $1bn in equity in an effort to stave off cuts to its triple A credit ratings. The plans, underwritten by JPMorgan and Lehman Brothers and with a backstop from buyout group Warburg Pincus, were announced Wednesday as MBIA said it had increased its after-tax operating loss for the quarter ending in December by $65m to $472.8m. Bloomberg reports that MBIA increased the sale from a planned $750m, though accepted a lower price than it had anticipated. Rivals such as Ambac have yet to announce plans for finding fresh capital. Banks are in talks about a deal to bail out Ambac, as well as FGIC, the bond insurer. Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, said Wednesday that downgrades could have “adverse effects” on financial markets and the economy. In a separate FT comment article, Pimco’s Bill Gross says bailouts are merely short-term palliatives for monolines and won’t remedy the real problem.
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collegio dei patafisici
German Manufacturing Orders Drop on Export Demand (Update1)
By Simone Meier
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- German manufacturing orders declined the most in five months in December, led by a drop in export sales, another sign Europe's largest economy is losing momentum.
Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 1.7 percent from November, when they rose 3 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists expected a decline of 2 percent, according to the median of 39 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. In the year, orders rose 5.6 percent.
Today's report suggests manufacturers are starting to feel the pinch of a surge in the euro that's making their exports less competitive abroad just as the U.S. economy hovers near recession. Chancellor Angela Merkel's government cut its 2008 growth forecast last month, citing a stronger euro and the increase in oil prices.
``Manufacturing growth will continue to weaken as the economy loses momentum,'' said Ralph Solveen, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``We don't expect a stronger euro and a weaker U.S. economy to trigger a slump in orders however.''
The pace of economic expansion may slow to 1.7 percent this year from 2.5 percent in 2007, the government said last month. The Economy Ministry expects growth to ``moderate'' further after an estimated slowdown in the fourth quarter. In the third, the economy grew 0.7 percent.
Signs of Slowdown
Adding to signs of a slowdown, confidence among European executives and consumers fell more than economists forecast last month. Service industries in the economy of the 15 euro nations grew at the slowest pace in more than four years last month and retail sales dropped the most since 1995 in December.
European companies are grappling with a 13 percent gain in the euro against the dollar over the past year and a gain in oil prices that's sapping spending power. Crude oil reached a record $100.09 a barrel on Jan. 3 and is up 50 percent from a year ago.
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG, the world's largest maker of printing machines, on Feb. 5 cut its annual profit forecast after a drop in third-quarter earnings. The company said a weaker dollar hurt margins and some U.S. publishers are holding back investment because they are worried about a recession.
German domestic orders fell 0.5 percent from November and export sales declined 2.8 percent, today's report showed. Orders from the euro region dropped 6.9 percent. Investment goods orders fell 2.7 percent and sales of intermediate goods slipped 0.5 percent, while demand for consumer goods declined 1.7 percent.
Low Point
``Germany will be able to avoid a recession in the short term, but the longer the situation abroad remains tense, the more it will become an issue,'' said Sylvain Broyer, an economist at Natixis in Frankfurt. ``German growth will probably reach the low point in the third quarter'' of 2008.
Still, the International Monetary Fund said Jan. 29 that it expects emerging markets to weather the deterioration in advanced economies. The global economy may grow 4.1 percent this year instead of a previously projected 4.4 percent with the U.S., Japan and the euro-region all growing at a weaker-than-expected pace, the Washington-based fund said.
MAN AG, Europe's third-largest truckmaker based in Munich, said Feb. 5 that fourth-quarter profit rose 33 percent on increasing demand in markets including Poland and Russia.
Peter Loescher, chief executive officer of Siemens AG, Europe's largest engineering company, said Jan. 24 that ``fundamental growth opportunities remain in place.''
``The German economy remains on a growth course,'' said Josef Ackermann, chief executive officer at Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, at a press conference today. ``The strong upturn is coming to an end. It is not a recession scenario.''
While the U.S. Federal Reserve last week trimmed its key rate for the second time in as many weeks, the European Central Bank has so far showed little willingness to follow. Instead President Jean-Claude Trichet has said the bank is ready to raise borrowing costs to fight inflation that's at a 14-year high.
The Frankfurt-based ECB will probably keep its benchmark interest rate at 4 percent today, according to all 56 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The bank will announce its decision at 1:45 a.m. followed by a press conference with Trichet 45 minutes later.
To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Frankfurt at [email protected] .
Last Updated: February 7, 2008 06:49 EST
By Simone Meier
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- German manufacturing orders declined the most in five months in December, led by a drop in export sales, another sign Europe's largest economy is losing momentum.
Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 1.7 percent from November, when they rose 3 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists expected a decline of 2 percent, according to the median of 39 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. In the year, orders rose 5.6 percent.
Today's report suggests manufacturers are starting to feel the pinch of a surge in the euro that's making their exports less competitive abroad just as the U.S. economy hovers near recession. Chancellor Angela Merkel's government cut its 2008 growth forecast last month, citing a stronger euro and the increase in oil prices.
``Manufacturing growth will continue to weaken as the economy loses momentum,'' said Ralph Solveen, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``We don't expect a stronger euro and a weaker U.S. economy to trigger a slump in orders however.''
The pace of economic expansion may slow to 1.7 percent this year from 2.5 percent in 2007, the government said last month. The Economy Ministry expects growth to ``moderate'' further after an estimated slowdown in the fourth quarter. In the third, the economy grew 0.7 percent.
Signs of Slowdown
Adding to signs of a slowdown, confidence among European executives and consumers fell more than economists forecast last month. Service industries in the economy of the 15 euro nations grew at the slowest pace in more than four years last month and retail sales dropped the most since 1995 in December.
European companies are grappling with a 13 percent gain in the euro against the dollar over the past year and a gain in oil prices that's sapping spending power. Crude oil reached a record $100.09 a barrel on Jan. 3 and is up 50 percent from a year ago.
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG, the world's largest maker of printing machines, on Feb. 5 cut its annual profit forecast after a drop in third-quarter earnings. The company said a weaker dollar hurt margins and some U.S. publishers are holding back investment because they are worried about a recession.
German domestic orders fell 0.5 percent from November and export sales declined 2.8 percent, today's report showed. Orders from the euro region dropped 6.9 percent. Investment goods orders fell 2.7 percent and sales of intermediate goods slipped 0.5 percent, while demand for consumer goods declined 1.7 percent.
Low Point
``Germany will be able to avoid a recession in the short term, but the longer the situation abroad remains tense, the more it will become an issue,'' said Sylvain Broyer, an economist at Natixis in Frankfurt. ``German growth will probably reach the low point in the third quarter'' of 2008.
Still, the International Monetary Fund said Jan. 29 that it expects emerging markets to weather the deterioration in advanced economies. The global economy may grow 4.1 percent this year instead of a previously projected 4.4 percent with the U.S., Japan and the euro-region all growing at a weaker-than-expected pace, the Washington-based fund said.
MAN AG, Europe's third-largest truckmaker based in Munich, said Feb. 5 that fourth-quarter profit rose 33 percent on increasing demand in markets including Poland and Russia.
Peter Loescher, chief executive officer of Siemens AG, Europe's largest engineering company, said Jan. 24 that ``fundamental growth opportunities remain in place.''
``The German economy remains on a growth course,'' said Josef Ackermann, chief executive officer at Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, at a press conference today. ``The strong upturn is coming to an end. It is not a recession scenario.''
While the U.S. Federal Reserve last week trimmed its key rate for the second time in as many weeks, the European Central Bank has so far showed little willingness to follow. Instead President Jean-Claude Trichet has said the bank is ready to raise borrowing costs to fight inflation that's at a 14-year high.
The Frankfurt-based ECB will probably keep its benchmark interest rate at 4 percent today, according to all 56 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The bank will announce its decision at 1:45 a.m. followed by a press conference with Trichet 45 minutes later.
To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Frankfurt at [email protected] .
Last Updated: February 7, 2008 06:49 EST