Aldesa e le sue incertezze (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione mariarosa78
- Data di Inizio
qquebec
Super Moderator
Sulla base dei conti trimestrali appena pubblicati un crollo del genere è irrazionale, posto che il bond è senior secured e che il rating non è cambiato. La scarsa liquidità ha sicuramente contribuito al crollo, come già avvenuto in precedenza.
whitesoul9
Forumer storico
Credo che qui in molti la pensiamo così, resta un fastidioso tarlo nel cervello rappresentato dal dubbio che la società stia nascondendo qualcosa
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Certo. Dalla loro hanno il tempo quasi due anni per poter risolvere questa situazione oggettivamente critica.
Anche se mi preoccupa molto la RCF anche si sta discutendo adesso.
In passato ho contattato l’IR per ricevere risposte molto evasive.
qquebec
Super Moderator
E cosa ti hanno detto?
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Parlo di anni fa. Risposte evasive. Poi non mi hanno mai dato la password per avere accesso ai documenti.
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Secured da azioni che in questo momento valgono zero.
IL MARATONETA
Forumer storico
La penso come te- Sarebbe interessante sapere quanto è stato scambiato il titolo e se si tratta di un tira e molla tra due o più fondi che hanno lo stesso interesse di far precipitare le quotazioni per fini speculativi.
qquebec
Super Moderator
Non credo Aldesa stia nascondendo qualcosa perchè il crollo è avvenuto dopo la pubblicazione dei dati. Chi ha venduto lo ha fatto sulla scorta di quello che si è potuto apprendere dalla trimestrale. Di fondo c'è delusione e tanta rabbia fra gli investitori per non aver riscontrato un miglioramento nei conti (leverage in aumento a 4,1 x e cash flow negativo per 132 mln) con un bond in scadenza fra meno di due anni. Cruciale sarà il prossimo trimestre. Nel frattempo non credo che Moody's abbasserà il rating (B3 negativo - dic. 2018) mentre Fitch (B stabile - luglio 2018) potrebbe cambiare la view.
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Fitch ha abbassato il rating 20 giorni fa
Press Release
Fitch Downgrades Aldesa to 'B-'; Outlook Stable
14 MAY 2019 01:24 PM ET
Fitch Ratings-Barcelona/London-14 May 2019: Fitch Ratings has downgraded Spain-based engineering and construction (E&C) company Grupo Aldesa S.A.'s (Aldesa) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B-' from 'B'. The Outlook on the IDR is Stable. At the same time, Fitch has downgraded wholly-owned subsidiary Aldesa Financial Services S.A.'s senior secured rating to 'B-'/'RR4'/50% from 'B'/'RR4'/50%.
The downgrade reflects Fitch's expectation that Aldesa's funds from operations (FFO) adjusted net leverage metric will remain above our negative sensitivity of 6x in the medium term. It also factors in our expectation that the company's free cash flow (FCF) margin will turn negative, which is not commensurate with the 'B' rating median in our E&C Navigator. Although Aldesa's business profile is considered in line with the 'B' rating median, medium-term weakness in the company's financial structure and increased re-financing risks drive a weaker credit profile.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Deteriorating Profitability: Fitch expects Aldesa's FCF margin to be negative in the medium term, driven by prospects of subdued operating profitability and increasing net working capital forecasts. Our lower profitability expectation is driven by multiple challenges in key markets, notably from muted demand for public civil works in Spain and Mexico. Our forecasts for higher working capital reflect a shift in Aldesa's business mix toward the private sector, especially for early-stage, milestone-based renewable projects.
Weak Financial Structure: Fitch views Aldesa's leverage profile as high for the current rating. We expect FFO-adjusted net leverage to range between 5.8x and 6.1x in the medium term. This leaves Aldesa with limited headroom against market downturns or higher-than-expected swings in working capital. Fitch assumes modest deleveraging from 2019 to 2022 due to weak profitability and increased working capital requirements.
Although Aldesa's current liquidity is sufficient in the short-term, the company nonetheless faces significant refinancing risk in the next two years while market sentiment is likely to remain negative over southern European construction companies.
Adequate Business Profile: Aldesa's business profile is commensurate with a 'B' rating category. The company has effectively deployed its recognised technical capabilities in sub-segments of the infrastructure construction industry, such as tunnelling, to enter new geographic markets and build solid positions outside Spain, notably in Mexico. Geographic and customer concentrations are satisfactory for a 'B' rated issuer, although this risk remains material.
The small size of Aldesa compared with peers', with sales of less than EUR1 billion, remains a negative factor at the current rating. However, this is partly mitigated by a solid record in risk management and Aldesa's long-lasting relationships with the company's major customers.
Rising Refinancing Risk: In May 2018 Aldesa pulled its planned bond refinancing due to adverse market conditions. The company is again exploring its options for refinancing its EUR250 million bond maturing in April 2021, but we expect it to come at higher financing costs given the current trading prices of the existing bond and market sentiment on southern European construction companies potentially constraining Aldesa's market access. This drives our expectations for a lower fixed charge cover of 1.2x-1.3x in the medium term versus 1.4x in 2018.
In the short term, we see a risk of non-extension of reverse factoring and revolving credit facility lines in case of adverse market conditions or idiosyncratic issues. Nevertheless, we view termination of the lines as unlikely over a four-year rating horizon.
Challenges in Key Markets: We expect challenging business environments in Spain and Mexico and continued profitability pressures in Poland. However, ongoing projects in Poland should reach breakeven this year and result in a slight improvement of profitability. In Mexico, we expect low single-digit output growth of the construction industry to be driven by private works such as offices and residential real estate as well as an increase of commercial infrastructure, services, hotel and tourism. In Spain, following a 2019 uptick we project muted construction output growth in 2020-2022. We assume that fairly strong private sector demand will be partly offset by subdued public investments.
Sound Backlog: Aldesa's backlog and revenue visibility remains healthy. The backlog value has remained fairly stable at around EUR1.4 billion since 2013 despite higher sales of EUR931 million in 2018 versus EUR647 million in 2013. In 2018, the backlog of EUR1.4 billion translates into 1.5x sales, broadly in line with that of 2017. New orders in 2018 amounted to EUR997 million, which provides a book-to-bill of above 1.0x.
Project concentration risk remains high, but is commensurate with the current rating. This is mitigated by management's prudent approach and the geographical diversification of the backlog, mostly in high investment-grade countries.
Robust Contract Risk Management: Aldesa has robust risk management policies in place with no large loss-making contracts, a record of good execution and no evidence of major disputes. Management has taken a number of strategic steps to help the company avoid similar pitfalls that affected its competitors during the construction crisis in Spain with many restructuring or going bankrupt. We are confident in Aldesa's prudent approach to project management and solid bidding processes. Notably the company has a track record of favouring margin over growth and focusing on projects that are aligned with its specialties and scale.
Fitch's Adjustments: Fitch focuses its analysis on cash flow generated at the recourse group, primarily the E&C segment. Fitch adjusts leverage calculations for Aldesa to reflect the non-recourse nature of concessions by excluding related FFO and non-recourse debt, but including sustainable dividends.
Our net debt calculation is substantially higher than that reported by Aldesa. We take into account off-balance-sheet obligations related to working-capital management facilities (EUR79 million at end-2018 of factoring and confirming) and operating leases (EUR12 million at end-2018). We also assume that an additional EUR70 million of cash is not readily available for debt repayment because of seasonal working-capital swings (over 1Q) and cash held in countries with foreign-exchange restrictions and other barriers to accessing liquidity.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
Aldesa's business profile is commensurate with a 'B' category engineering and construction (E&C) company. The company has successfully used its strong technical skills in niche sub-segments of the construction industry, such as tunnelling, to build its top 10 market positions in its two main markets, Mexico and Spain. Aldesa remains in a weaker competitive position than global peers, such as Salini Impregilo S.p.a.(BB+/Stable) due to greater geographic concentration given its reliance on Mexico and Spain. Its operations are small with sales below EUR1 billion in 2018 while its next largest rated peer, Obrascon Huarte Lain SA (OHL) (B+/Stable) generated around EUR2.8 billion of sales.
However, the ratings also reflect high leverage metrics for Aldesa that are not commensurate with the 'B' rating median in our E&C Navigator. Fitch expects FFO-adjusted net leverage to range between 5.8x and 6.1x in the medium term versus 2.8x-3.5x for Salini Impregilo. Fitch expects Aldesa's FCF to be negative in the medium term, while the other only rated peer with negative expected FCF, OHL (B+/Stable), maintains a net cash position. No parent/subsidiary linkage, country ceiling and operating environment influence have an effect on these ratings.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's Key Assumptions within our Rating Case for the Issuer
-Low-to mid-single digit revenue growth
-Modest increase in recourse EBITDA margin to 6.1% in 2022, from 5.6% in 2019 and 5.9% in 2018
-Gradual increase in working capital position to 10.7% of revenue in 2022 from 6.7% in 2019 and 5.1% in 2018
-Capex of EUR9 million in 2019 and EUR10 million annually in 2020-2022
-Acquisitions of EUR8 million in 2019 (investments in concessions)
-No dividends from non-recourse subsidiaries
-No dividends paid to common shareholder
-No material asset disposal
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action
-FFO adjusted net leverage below 5.5x (2018: 5.2x)
-Positive FCF generation on a sustained basis
-Significant improvement in the operating risk profile driven by increased scale (sales sustainably in excess of EUR1 billion) and internationalisation, reduced concentration risk and funding diversification
-A material increase in steady income being up-streamed from the concession business without re-leveraging assets.
Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action
-FFO adjusted net leverage failing to decline below 6.5x and FFO fixed charge cover below 1x, 12 months before the maturity of the senior secured bonds
-Deterioration of the liquidity profile with liquidity score below 1.0x and an increased dependence on factoring and short-term lines
-Inability to refinance existing bonds and revolving credit facilities
-Evidence of support for weakening non-recourse activities or a material increase in new concessions leading to equity contributions from the recourse business.
LIQUIDITY
Sufficient liquidity: Fitch assumes that liquidity is supported by EUR106 million of readily available cash, including Fitch's adjustments for intra-year working capital movements of EUR70 million. Liquidity is further enhanced by EUR104 million of undrawn committed banking facilities, of which EUR100 million is related to a revolving credit facility maturing in May 2020. This provides headroom to cover 2019 factoring and confirming maturities of EUR94 million (including the Cofides put option) and forecasted negative FCF of EUR9 million, as well as the risk of a sudden loss in working-capital management facilities.
Aldesa's liquidity strongly depends on reverse factoring and revolving credit facility lines, which are subject to refinancing risk in case of adverse market conditions or idiosyncratic issues. Nevertheless, we view termination of the lines unlikely in the medium term and forecast a continuous roll-over of the factoring lines.