[alingtonsky]

Per poter fare un' analisi fondamentale dell' S&P500 bisogna stimare e calcolare anche gli utili complessivi per le società dell' indice per l' anno in corso e quello successivo.

Oggi JP Morgan ha comunicato le sue stime attuali . Il target per fine 2009 è 1100 punti

March 25 (Reuters)

S&P 500 2009 EPS view to $57
S&P 500 2010 EPS view to $76

* JP Morgan believes that more constructive equity market environment will develop in H2 with year-end S&P 500 target of 1100

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29870328/

[osinod]

se' siete bravi in analisi fondamentali non credo esista un sito migliore di questo per farsi tutti i propri calcoli

di la verita argema questo link è stupendo


http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html

[alingtonsky]

Originalmente inviato da alingtonsky

Per poter fare un' analisi fondamentale dell' S&P500 bisogna stimare e calcolare anche gli utili complessivi per le società dell' indice per l' anno in corso e quello successivo.

Oggi JP Morgan ha comunicato le sue stime attuali . Il target per fine 2009 è 1100 punti

March 25 (Reuters)

S&P 500 2009 EPS view to $57
S&P 500 2010 EPS view to $76

* JP Morgan believes that more constructive equity market environment will develop in H2 with year-end S&P 500 target of 1100

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29870328/

Chi il 25/3/2009 ha investito sull' azionario USA basandosi su quella valutazione fondamentale può essere soddisfatto visto che il target è già stato praticamente raggiunto ieri con una chiusura a 1096.56

Non so se successivamente le stime sono state riviste a rialzo

Comunque questo esempio mostra l' utilità dell' analisi fondamentale che grandi banche possono applicare a interi indici calcolando le stime di utili di tutte le società che li compongono, e il conseguente target.

[alingtonsky]

Un' altra società di analisi ha alzato il target per l' indice S&P 500 da 1100 a 1150 all' inizio di ottobre:

Oct. 7, 2009, 6:04 p.m. EDT ·
S&P Equity lifts target on S&P 500 index to 1,150


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- S&P Equity Research late Wednesday said it was raising its 12-month price target on S&P's 500 index by 50 points to 1,150 and is advising investors to buy more global stocks. Investors should reduce their cash exposure by 5 percentage points, to a benchmark 10% allocation, and add those savings to U.S. and non-U.S. stocks. "We see equity prices benefiting from an expected gradual rise in global economic growth projections, a further weakening of the U.S. dollar and the expectation of a continued improvement in corporate earnings per share," wrote chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. Stocks could pull back 5% to 10% in coming months, but from a higher price, he said. On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.3% at 1,058.

S&P Equity lifts target on S&P 500 index to 1,150 - MarketWatch

[alingtonsky]

BofA Merrill

Thu Sep 10, 2009 4:05pm EDT

The head of the firm's U.S. equity strategy, David Bianco, put a 12-month price target for the S&P 500 of 1,200.
While acknowledging there are still global economic headwinds, Hartnett wrote the likelihood that consumer demand picks up as a result of improving real estate and labor markets will outweigh the chances consumers keep their wallets closed.

.....

BofA Merrill-US equities to outshine Treasury bonds | Currencies | Reuters

[alingtonsky]

=> STOCKS NEWS US-2009 targets: S&P 500 1,280; DJIA 11,150 -Birinyi <=

[alingtonsky]

Il 23/11 Bank of America Merrill Lynch aveva alzato a 1275 il target a 12 mesi per l' indice S&P500

Nov. 23, 2009, 1:27 p.m. EST

Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Monday said it raised its 12-month target on the S&P 500 index to 1,275 from 1,200 previously, citing expectations of improved earnings per share in the financial, technology and energy sectors.
...
BofA Merrill said. It also expects higher earnings in the technology, industrial and material sectors of the S&P, driven by cost-cutting and improved margins.

BofA lifts S&P 500 target to 1,275, oil to $85 - MarketWatch

[alingtonsky]

S&P 500 a 1250 entro fine 2010 secondo UBS

2 December 2009

UBS Forecast YE 2010 S&P 500 at 1250, Profits to Rise 27%

Equities | UBS Forecast YE 2010 S&P 500 at 1250, Profits to Rise 27% | Automated Trader

[alingtonsky]

Wed, Dec 23 2009 at 9:32 pm
The rally is going to continue into 2010 according to Wall Street’s most influential bank (Please see here for Goldman’s top 10 trades of 2010). Analysts at Goldman Sachs Europe and America have released their full year 2010 estimates and they are very bullish about the upcoming year.
Goldman sees very low rates, stronger than expected earnings, strong commodity demand and investor reallocation driving prices higher. Goldman sees no rate changes through 2011 – one of the most accommodative outlooks of any bank we have covered. Stronger than expected revenue growth and continued margin expansion will result in 15%+ equity returns in the upcoming year. Although they see a continuation in the rally some moderation is expected. As we previously mentioned, their analysts expect many similarities to 2004. David Kostin wrote:

“Continued profit margin resiliency from prior aggressive cost reductions should drive strong returns in early 2010 and push the S&P 500 towards 1,300.”

Their analysts in Europe are even more bullish. They see the DJ STOXX 600 rising 20% to 300 by the end of 2010.

....

Perhaps most important, Goldman sees a continued influx of cash to the equity markets. Thus far, investors have been risk averse and either remain in cash or have moved into bonds. Goldman sees a substantial move into equities as investors become less risk averse.
....

http://www.themarketguardian.com/200...will-continue/

[alingtonsky]

Tue Mar 9, 2010 12:30pm EST
Goldman Sachs investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on Tuesday her team's in-house view put the S&P 500 stock index's fair value at between 1,250 and 1,300.

Speaking in an interview on CNBC television, Cohen said equities probably offered better returns and valuations relative to bonds and it was unlikely that the U.S. economy will slip right back into a recession.
"Clearly over the last several weeks it has become less likely in our view that there will be a double-dip (recession)," she said. "The jobs number is looking less bad, demand for things, new orders for new equipment, retail spending are beginning to improve."
The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 4.77 points, or 0.42 percent, at 1,143.27 in midday trading on Tuesday.
...

S&P 500 fair value 1,250 to 1,300: Goldman's Cohen | Reuters