[Topgun1976]

Questo ti Sarà Molto Utile Bos

London, 02 December 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the non-cumulative Tier 1 instruments issued directly and indirectly by Allied Irish Banks plc (Allied Irish) an additional notch to Caa1 (stable outlook) from B3 (negative outlook). This further alignment of the ratings follows the bank's announcement of December 1 that it will not pay the upcoming distribution on a non-cumulative perpetual preferred security (see below for further details).

The bank's cumulative Tier 1 securities and junior subordinated debt were affirmed at B1 (negative outlook) and Ba3 (negative outlook) respectively. The other ratings of the bank including the D BFSR, the A1 long-term bank deposit and senior debt rating, the A2 dated subordinated debt rating, the Ba3 junior subordinated debt rating, and the Aa1-rated government guaranteed debt were all unaffected.

Allied Irish announced on December 1, 2009, that following the submission of the bank's restructuring plan to the Commission the European Commission has requested that the bank should not make payments on its Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital instruments unless it has a legal obligation to do so. Allied Irish is required to submit a restructuring plan due to the substantial State Aid that it has received over the past year, in the form of the EUR3.5 billion preference share injection into the bank by the Irish government. In addition the bank will also be a major participant in the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), an asset management company that will acquire land and development loans, as well as related lending, from five Irish institutions.

As a result of this the bank will not pay the distribution on the GBP350 million non-cumulative perpetual preference shares issued by AIB UK 3 LP. The non-payment of this distribution will trigger the "dividend stopper" and therefore the bank will also be unable to declare or pay distributions on its ordinary equity, the EUR3.5 billion of preference shares issued to the Irish government, and on parity securities which includes the Tier securities issued out of AIB UK 1 LP and AIB UK 2 LP as well as the Reserve Capital Instruments (RCIs) issued out of the bank itself.

The downgrade earlier this year to B3, was based on an expected-loss approach and reflected Moody's assumption that the bank would likely omit coupons for at least a two-year period, in line with other European bank's that have benefited from substantial State Aid. The further downgrade by one notch to Caa1 incorporates i) the greater certainty about the coupon deferrals as well as ii) the remaining uncertainty about the bank's financial strength beyond the 2-year time horizon, which also adds uncertainty about future coupon payments . The outlook for the securities is stable reflecting Moody's conservative expected loss assumptions in terms of the likelihood and time horizon of missed coupons, as well as the low sensitivity of these instruments to the bank's intrinsic financial strength.

The rating of the Reserve Capital Instruments (with cumulative deferral and non-cash settlement through ACSM) remains B1. These securities have largely the same features as junior subordinated debt on a going concern basis, but have a preferred claim in liquidation. Under a going concern assumption, the expected loss for investors in these cumulative instruments should therefore be clearly lower than for the non-cumulative preference shares.

Moody's notes that Allied Irish and the Irish government are in discussions with the Commission to enable the bank to continue to declare and pay dividends and distributions as normal. This is to avoid the Irish government from receiving, in the future, payment in ordinary shares rather than cash, and thereby increasing its stake in the bank, against its stated objective of not taking majority stakes in Irish banks. Although the European Commission has said that it will give full consideration to this approach, Moody's would expect that the bank will still be required to omit payments for a two year period. If however this is not the case then the rating agency will comment again when further information is available.

In this context, Moody's also noted that were Bank of Ireland (which is waiting for the Commission's approval of its restructuring plan) and EBS Building Society (who we expect will need to lodge a plan in the near future) to also defer or omit coupons then this would likely require a further review of these institution's B3-rated preference shares and parity securities.

RATINGS AFFECTED:

The following securities were downgraded to Caa1 (stable outlook) from B3 (negative outlook)

- AIB UK 1 LP preferred securities EUR1 billion (ISIN: XS0208105055)
- AIB UK 2 LP preferred securities EUR500 million (ISIN: XS0257734037)
- AIB UK 3 LP preferred securities GBP350 million (ISIN: XS0257571066)

[bosmeld]

molto interessante

si fa riferimento anche a Boi, che molto probabilemnte avrà una situazione simile, con possibile skippagio cedole...

certo questo passagio non ispira molta fiducia.....

"The further downgrade by one notch to Caa1 incorporates i) the greater certainty about the coupon deferrals as well as ii) the remaining uncertainty about the bank's financial strength beyond the 2-year time horizon, which also adds uncertainty about future coupon payments"

cmq hanno lasciato inalterato il rating sul mio titolo cumulativo

[bia06]

Grazie mille Mais.
Puoi postare l'ISIN della UT2? Grazie ancora e buona serata.

Originalmente inviato da Mais78

Presa con Swissquote a 75 questa estate. Con IW e' impossibile.

Con IW ho preso la UT2 qualche mese dopo a 80 qualcosa.

[Zorba]

Originalmente inviato da varoon

Ho trovato questa PR sul sito di ABN. Non so cosa ne pensate, ma l'ho trovata interessante per la parte d ABN che andrà con lo stato olanadese, per questi motivi:

- fa riferimento espresso alla sospensione della cedola degli ibridi che finiranno a RBS. Nulla dice sul P ABN (per cui dovrebbe pagare)
- cita il "pusher period" di 12 mesi: se non ho capito male (ma qui chiedo l'aiuto di tutti), il fatto che ABN Group NV abbia distribuito il maxi-dividendo a Santander dovrebbe far scattare il mandatory payment per buona parte delle cedole 2010 dei P che finisco a RBS e - aggiungo io - delle cedole del P ABN
- per cui la cedola 2010 di ABN non dovrebbe essere differita, mentre per le successive non dovrebbero più esserci problemi, in quanto ABN diventa un gioellino, State Bank, etc...

ABNAMRO - ABN AMRO Holding N.V. (the future RBS Holdings N.V.) and the Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc – Accession to the Asset Protection Scheme with Her Majesty's Treasury and State Aid Commitments

Scusate, ma ormai mi sono fissato con ABN. Mi sono letto in maniera più approfondita il prospetto, soprattutto nella parte Optional Deferral Payments 4.b (che mi sembra l'unico rischio possibile).

PREMESSA: la cedola 2010 dovrebbe essere cmq salva per il discorso del dividend pusher di Santander.

L'Optional Deferral Payments è un gran casino, se ABN dovesse attuarlo. Infatti la cedola dovrebbe essere cmq pagata (i) o con azioni ABN (cosa impossibile, non essendo più quotata) (ii) oppure con i proventi di un aumento di capitale. Nella seconda ipotesi vorrebbe dire che ABN dovrebbe lanciare un mini aumento di k da 43 mln (le cedole di un anno) e utilizzare i proventi di questo auk per pagare le cedole. Ma ce lo vendete il ministro delle finanze olandese che va in parlamento per chiedere allo Stato olandese di sottoscrivere un auk da 43 mln!?! In aggiunta, sui coupon differiti maturano interessi del 4,31%. Per cui dubito fortemente che i coupon possano venir differiti...

[solenoide]

C'e' anche questa notizia :

EU backs AIB efforts to raise private capital | Reuters

EU backs AIB efforts to raise private capital



BRUSSELS, Dec 1 (Reuters) - European Union competition regulators will back efforts by Allied Irish Banks (AIB) (ALBK.I) to raise private capital in return for reducing state aid given to the bank, the European Commission said on Tuesday.


"In the Commission's approach to restructuring aid for banks, it is possible for the period of coupon restrictions to be adjusted if this would favour private capital raising that would in turn reduce the amount of state aid," it said.
"The Commission will support efforts of AIB to raise private capital, including measures aimed at providing adequate remuneration to the government's preference shares without necessarily diluting existing shareholders," it added.
Talks with AIB that had led the lender to suspend December coupon payments were "without prejudice to the respective positions of other Irish banks", a Commission statement said.


The Irish Economy Blog Archive The EU and AIB’s Government Preference Shares

[ferdo]

Originalmente inviato da bia06

Grazie mille Mais.
Puoi postare l'ISIN della UT2? Grazie ancora e buona serata.

Non sono mais, e non ho l'isin sotto mano
ma il codice di IW che e' quasi identico
XS01981062 (forse manca un numero)

[ferdo]

[QUOTE=Topgun1976;1229088]Questo ti Sarà Molto Utile Bos
London, 02 December 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has today ...
......
In this context, Moody's also noted that were Bank of Ireland (which is waiting for the Commission's approval of its restructuring plan) and EBS Building Society (who we expect will need to lodge a plan in the near future) to also defer or omit coupons then this would likely require a further review of these institution's B3-rated preference shares and parity securities.
...[QUOTE]
del piano di BOI - che qui dice sottoposto ad approvazione - qualcuno ha informazioni su cosa prevede?

[solenoide]

Conferma che hanno ripagato parte degli aiuti.

AEGON and SNS REAAL pay back part of state aid - MinFin.nl
AEGON and SNS REAAL pay back part of state aid

Newsrelease | 01-12-2009 | Financial supervision
Yesterday, AEGON and SNS REAAL paid back part of the capital injections they had received from the government at the end of 2008. By doing so, the companies use the possibility to pay back part of the state aid within one year by buying back securities.
AEGON buys back securities to the amount of EUR 1 billion. It pays the issuing price of EUR 4 per security, an interest rate of 8.5% and a premium of EUR 108 million. The total yield for the government thus amounts to 19.3%.
SNS REAAL has bought back securities for the issuing price (EUR 5.25) for the amount of EUR 185 million. SNS also pays an interest rate of 8.5%. The redemption premium of SNS REAAL is zero as a result of its linking to the share price of SNS REAAL and that did not exceed the issuing price in the week prior to the repayment. Thus the yield for the government of this sum is 8.5%.
AEGON and SNS REAAL received capital injections by the government at the end of 2008 in order to meet the unforeseen and external shocks on the international financial markets. AEGON issued securities to the amount of EUR 3 billion and SNS REAAL to the amount of EUR 750 million.
Both institutions had stated earlier to wish to use the possibility to repay early within a year and have issued shares earlier in order to be able to pay this redemption.

[Mais78]

Originalmente inviato da bia06

grazie mille mais.
Puoi postare l'isin della ut2? Grazie ancora e buona serata.

xs0198106238

[DinoP]

Originalmente inviato da ferdo

non sono mais, e non ho l'isin sotto mano
ma il codice di iw che e' quasi identico
xs01981062 (forse manca un numero)

nemmeno io sono Mais, e questo è l'isin completo
xs0198106238