e alla fine la Yellen parlò
ma come sempre tutto si gioca su aggettivi e pause tra le frasi: Janet vuole avere le mani libere molto più di Greenspan, e diversamente dal suo predecessore preferisce non essere meccanicamente legataad una serie di indicatori, pur confermando la policy in atto
una strategia di comunicazione certamente più adatta a questo periodo di difficile ripresa mondiale: Geenspan doveva invece affrontare una crisi, e la decisione delle sue azioni doveva essere sostenuta dalla chiarezza sulla strategia
leggiamo alcuni estratti dall'articolo ''a caldo'' del FT
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2d55bf88-3631-11e5-b05b-b01debd57852.html
Janet Yellen sends a carefully crafted signal
Global investors were
begging for decisive signals from the Federal Reserve going into Wednesday’s meeting but Janet Yellen was never going to oblige them.
The Fed chair has shifted the central bank away from its past practice of giving firm commitments on the timing of monetary policy changes, stressing instead that it will follow
a more flexible approach as it is
guided by the incoming economic data.
That said, the Fed’s carefully crafted statement on Wednesday has marginally raised the chances of a rate increase at the central bank’s next policy meeting in September.
qui è il nocciolo: un leggero aumento della probabilità, indiva che la FED è moderatamente ottimista, anche se resta flessibile:
al rispetto delle aspettative finanziarie si affianca l'attenzione ai mercati:
come avevamo detto, un colpo al cerchio ed uno alla botte, con grande garbo
The Federal Open Market Committee hinted that it does not need to see a lot more progress in the labour market before the employment leg of the test it has set for interest rate lift-off has been satisfied.
scende un poco il peso della componente ''labour'' nella equazione che la FED impiega per le sue analisi
Whereas the central bank previously said it would raise rates when it had seen “further improvement” in jobs, it now only needs to see “some further improvement”.
The addition of a single word hardly sounds revolutionary, but it is significant stuff in the context of the “dog whistle communications” adopted by the Fed, said Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP.
come sempre, ogni sfumatura delle dichiarazioni finali viene soppesata con la massima attenzione
.... tagliato ....
Futures markets on Wednesday gave a September 17 rise a lower probability, at about 38 per cent.
A new look FOMC has taken shape under Janet Yellen but the big policy test lies ahead
The other main requirement the Fed has set itself before incresing rates is that the central bank should have “reasonable confidence” that inflation is heading back to its 2 per cent target.
While the strength of the jobs market could play an important role in fostering that confidence, there are reasons for caution, making this a key area of debate on the FOMC.
abbiamo una analisi della composizione del Board, con la divisione dei membri tra hawkish e dovish: nei prossimi giorni, il contenuto e la frequenza delle dichiarazioni di componenti di una delle due fazioni ci potrà essere d'aiuto per vedree quale delle due politiche stia prendendo il sopravvento
Annual price growth has hovered below the Fed’s 2 per cent target for a third year, and market inflation expectations remain low. On top of this, two key variables have made matters more difficult.
The Fed on Wednesday had to remove an assertion from its previous statement that energy prices had stabilised.
attenzione all'oil, come detto ieri nella sezione 'materie prime' di I.O.:
non solo per il suo peso sulla economia USA, ma anche come precursore di inflazione futura
This was prompted by the recent tumble in oil prices, which could once again weigh on inflation. On top of this, the dollar has been surging — something that will impose a drag on US trade performance and inflation.
The Fed has said it thinks the impact of low energy prices and the high dollar will dissipate over time but the latest moves will clearly not help ensure inflation returns to the central bank’s 2 per cent target.
A host of economic reports will be released between now and when the Fed next meets, including gross domestic product numbers on Thursday, price data and two jobs reports.
FOMC members want to be able to weigh these up before deciding whether to raise the key rate as soon as September.
ecco quindi che le dichiarazioni dei vari membri del board hanno motivo di essere analizzate , specie nei commenti dei prossimi dati
Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan, said the FOMC ensured with its latest statement that it retains the option of keeping rates on hold if the incoming data disappoints.
That said, he added, the Fed’s latest statement “leaves the door wide open to a September lift-off”.
quindi, tutto sommato, l'aumento della probabilità del rate hike a settembre è ancora minore del 50%
buona giornata a tutti 
