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Debt Actions Slovakia
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 30 BRATISLAVA - Slovakia to auction 2 year, zero-coupon, April 1, 2011.
Cosa ne dite della Slovakia?
Al di là del rating, ti posto questo recente report di Fitch che mi sembra individui bene punti di forza e punti di debolezza della Slovacchia.
Direi che i primi (basso indebitamento pubblico; riforma previdenziale realizzata; stabilità valutaria conseguente all'ingresso nell'euro; depositi bancari quale principale fonte di approvvigionamento di liquidità per le banche e livello dei depositi bancari eccedente il valore dei loans erogati); tendono a prevalere sui secondi (sistema produttivo fortemente dipendente dai consumi più ciclici degli europei occidentali: auto, elettrodomestici ecc; previsto sforamento dei parametri di defit/PIL nel biennio a venire; crescita economica negativa del paese nel 2009 e ripresa debole nel 2010; rischio di deterioramento del bilancio pubblico in virtù delle prossime elezioni di metà 2010).
Fitch Affirms Slovakia's Ratings at 'A+'; Outlook Stable
07 May 2009 5:36 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-07 May 2009: Fitch has today affirmed the Republic of Slovakia's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default ratings (IDR) at 'A+', Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1' and Country Ceiling at 'AAA'. The Outlooks for Slovakia's Long-term IDRs are Stable.
"The Slovak economy is highly exposed to the fall in western European demand as it specialises in cyclically-sensitive exports - most notably cars," says Douglas Renwick, Associate Director in Fitch's Sovereign group. "Although this shock will cause a significant contraction in GDP this year, it is within Slovakia's rating tolerance. Euro membership and a good policy track record further support the ratings."
The Slovak economy is leveraged to consumer-durable demand in western Europe: automotive and electronics production have roughly halved year-on-year and unemployment is climbing rapidly. Fitch forecasts GDP to contract by 3% in 2009, with a weak recovery (1% growth) in 2010.
Slovakia's adoption of the euro in January shields it from the external financing and currency risks faced by many of its neighbours in emerging Europe. However, the lack of exchange rate flexibility in the face of the asymmetric shock to demand for cars will exacerbate the fall in output.
While Fitch considers that the ratings are able to withstand this shock, a significantly deeper and more prolonged contraction than anticipated, with the corresponding adverse effects on unemployment, bank asset quality and public finances, would place downward pressure on Slovakia's ratings.
Slovakia's ratings are supported by institutional strengths and underlying political stability anchored by membership of the European Union (EU).
Slovakia's attractive business environment has encouraged large net inflows of foreign investment and contributed to strong GDP growth, supporting the process of income convergence with wealthier EU members.
In 2004, Slovakia's GDP per capita was 24% of that of the EU15 and 93% of that of the CEE10. By 2008, these figures had improved to 41% and 110% respectively. Over the medium-to-long-term, real income convergence will be an important factor in improving creditworthiness.
Slovakia's public finances compare well with sovereigns rated in the 'A' peer group. Several years of fiscal consolidation and strong nominal GDP growth have brought the public debt/GDP ratio down to 28% at end 2008 (compared with an 'A' group median of 39%)..
However, Fitch forecasts the macroeconomic shock will widen the government deficit from 2.8% of GDP in 2008 to 5.5% in 2009 and 4.5% in 2010. This will raise the debt stock to 36.4% by end-10. Reform of the public pension system has placed Slovakia in a stronger position than many euro area members to cope with the long-term costs of an ageing population.
However, should recent government policies to undermine participation rates in the second-pillar pension scheme continue, there is a risk that this relative strength could be eroded over the medium-term.
Slovakia's banking system does not pose a significant downside risk to the ratings. Credit has expanded by an average of 22% a year since 2004, reflecting some overheating as well as convergence. However, this figure is moderate by regional standards, and the system remains small relative to the economy.
Dependence on foreign funding is limited and customer deposits exceed customer loans. Near-complete foreign ownership of the banking system mitigates potential contingent liabilities to the sovereign, although difficulties faced by parent banks may lead to repercussions in Slovakia (most likely through the restriction of new lending by the subsidiaries).
Evidence of maintaining fiscal discipline and economic flexibility is also an important rating factor. The current government has preserved most of the reforms of its predecessor but there is some downside policy risk in the run-up to a general election (which must be held by mid-2010) and in light of the worsened economic environment.