Citazione:
Originalmente inviato da Maino
questo articolo potrebbe essere messo anche nel thread del monitor euro-dollaro, perchè c'è una parte di esso che darebbe ragione a ricpast
|
è un'idea che anch'io mi sono fatto, liberissimi di crosspostarlo;
un altra utile lettura:
Greece, Other Euro Zone Countries to Get Help: Investor
Published: Monday, 8 Feb 2010 | 12:47 PM ET
By:
Lisa Auret
Assistant Web Producer, CNBC
While many remain wary of the sovereign debt situation within the euro zone, an investor told CNBC he is investing in Greek government debt as he sees France and Germany interceding for the embattled euro zone countries of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain or the so-called 'PIGS' nations.
Jorg Greuel | Getty Images
Greece
"
What I think will happen in the next week is France and Germany will say 'we will guarantee all short-term debt issuance from Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Spain,'" Louis Gargour, founder, chief investment officer and managing partner of LNG Capital told CNBC Monday.
The two countries will give the PIGS' government debt a 'AAA' or ECB guarantee for up to 24 months so that the shape of the yield curve is upward-sloping and normal, according to Gargour.
Unless the European Commission fixes what is wrong in these countries - ie. spending more money than they have - the yield curve will be very steep and to borrow in 5-10 years will be unsustainably expensive, he added.
Greece's inverted yield curve means it cannot borrow short-term either, according to Gargour.
Greece has the highest debt ratio of any euro zone country, expected to reach 120 percent of gross domestic product this year. Portugal's debt is expected to reach 84.5 percent of GDP and Spain's just 66.3 percent, below the euro zone average. However both countries' debt stock is rising fast, Reuters reported.
"It (Greece) is going to get help from the ECB or IMF. It's going to happen in the next week or two. It will probably be too little too late or too little," Gargour went on to say. "They can not let them default because Spain is next, Portugal is next.
"The ECB needs to do something and they need to do something this week," he said.
As a result of this thought process, Gargour told "Worldwide Exchange" he has done a "relative value trade" whereby he played Greece against being short on Portugal.
"We're thinking that Greece will actually now begin to recover. The other way you could hedge your risk is to look at credit default swaps (CDSs) versus bonds," he said.
-CUT-
Whilst Greece is in need of outside aid, the risk of default is very low, according to El-Erian. He added that the UK is the euro zone country who is most at risk of losing its 'AAA' rating due to its debt levels rising at a fast rate
