candela d'inversione negata, il sospetto è che su sta scadenza si chiuderà molto bassi in assenza di fattori esogeni
lo spread stava tornando indietro alla gran corsa poi si è stoppato a -1,175 ed è tornato un pò sù, manteniamo il trail a 1,18 pronti però a chiudere se ci son finestre favorevoli today
DJ US GAS: Nymex Futures Rally On Technical Buying, Then Fall
By Jeanine Prezioso
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures rallied early Tuesday on technical
buying, then fell for the fifth straight trading day amid mild weather and a
lack of tropical storms threatening U.S. Gulf Coast gas supplies.
October gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 9.6 cents
lower Tuesday at $5.574 per million British thermal units.
The biggest loser was the December contract, which has lost 15% of its gains
since last week, dropping 22.6 cents to settle at $8.884/MMBtu.
Gas for the 2006-2007 winter months settled below $10.00/MMBtu Tuesday. With
no tropical storms headed for the Gulf of Mexico to interrupt supplies and more
than enough gas in storage, futures have faced continued downward pressure,
traders and analysts said.
Analysts have been saying for months that winter-month gas futures were
overpriced and were due for a correction.
"We've been saying for a long time we think they're overvalued," said Kent
Bayazitoglu, director of analytics with Gelber and Associates in Houston. "I'm
not surprised by this."
Bayazitoglu thought Tuesday's early rally was caused by spread trading among
speculative traders. Traders were buying front-month futures and selling winter
contracts, causing front-month prices to jump while winter months fell flat, he
said. But eventually, traders started selling off October futures as well,
pushing prices lower, he said.
"At the end of the day people said, 'I don't want that short month, I'll sell
that too,'" Bayazitoglu said.
Spread trading has not moved the market to the degree it did today, with the
front-month rising while the back-months dropped, Bayazitoglu said. He chalked
it up to the record amount of spread trading that the natural gas market has
seen in recent months.
Others saw the early rally - which lasted much longer for the October and
November gas contracts than the others - as due possibly to covering of short
positions by speculative traders. A number of speculators were said to have
needed to cover their margins, which Nymex customers put up to cover their
purchases of contracts should the price move in an adverse direction.
Some traders might have needed to liquidate contracts and turn them into cash
to cover their margins, said Kyle Cooper, director of research with IAF
Advisors in Houston. Others might have needed to cover short positions, or
liquidate the contract to avoid delivery obligations.
Two tropical weather systems developing in the Atlantic were too far away to
raise concerns, traders said.
Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named storm this season, formed in the
Atlantic northeast of the Leeward Islands and was seen heading into open waters
east of Bermuda away from any land, the National Hurricane Center reported.
A tropical depression formed off the coast of Africa was moving west at 18
miles per hour and was seen possibly developing into a tropical storm, the NHC
reported. The potential storm's path was unknown, the NHC said.
"Most of the tropical storms seem to be heading away from us," Bayazitoglu
said. "There's not much fear for tropical storms and that's helping the market
Meanwhile, the U.S. is heading for record levels of gas in storage, according
to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Gas stocks are at 2.976 trillion
cubic feet, 12% above the five-year average.
Barring a storm that threatens gas production in the Gulf of Mexico,
Bayazitoglu said he expected continued weakness in the gas market during the
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex Oct $5.574 - 9.6
Nymex Nov $7.274 + 1.9
Nymex Dec $8.884 -22.6
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
Henry Hub $5.44-$5.65 $5.10-$5.49
Transco 65 $5.55-$5.78 $5.36-$5.56
Tex East M3 $5.87-$6.07 $5.70-$5.89
Transco Z6 $5.85-$6.03 $5.65-$5.90
SoCal $5.40-$5.58 $5.21-$5.50
El Paso Perm $4.97-$5.27 $4.86-$5.15
El Paso SJ $4.95-$5.14 $4.87-$4.95
Waha $5.20-$5.39 $5.05-$5.26
Katy $5.41-$5.55 $5.25-$5.36