Obbligazioni societarie Obbligazioni Oil & Gas (1 Viewer)

samantaao

Forumer storico
:bow:
troppi ringraziamenti... mi commuovo:sad:

e li giro anche a Mark che come ideatore prima, aiutante e commentatore adesso, è il vero motore dell'iniziativa

grazie Mark;)

ps un grazie anche a tutti quelli che nei mesi scorsi hanno lavorato alla cosa con obiettivi ben più sfidanti di questo monitor: marcofi, icecube, alobar, torino41... e se ho dimenticato qualcuno perdonatemelo e magari ricordatemelo

come unico commento ai titoli, anche se banale, vi posso dire che quando cominciammo il monitor avevano un rendimento ben più alto, come del resto quasi tutto, solo che questi (a parte quache eccezione) come allora hanno rendimenti paragonabili ai TDS... al momento si è rilevato un comparto molto difensivo
ciao a tutti
sam
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Sulla Pemex, la compagnia petrolifera di stato messicana, consente di buttare uno sguardo in termini generali, aspettando una prossima trimestrale da commentare, una recentissima rating action di Fitch, che ne ha recentemente ridotto l'outlook sul rating portandolo da positivo a stabile.

Per Fitch, il rating sovrano messicano e quello di Pemex sono fortemente e direttamente correlati, sebbene la proprietà statale non implichi la garanzia sovrana messicana sul debito della compagnia petrolifera.

Fra i punti di forza di Pemex figurano la solidità dei risultati anteimposte, una struttura dei costi favorevole, la importanza strategica che essa riveste per il Messico come fonte di entrate fiscali, una posizione dominante sul mercato domestico; in negativo, la sua natura di cash cow per lo Stato si riflette in una serie di punti di debolezza, quali un carico fiscale molto elevato, un risultato in termini di utile netto piuttosto modesto dopo il prelievo fiscale, un indebitamento non elevato ma significativo, il rischio di andare soggetta ad interferenze di natura politica.

In questo contesto si inserisce la situazione di mercato attuale, che vede prezzi dell'oil in declino e di coneguenza una minore capacità di generazione di cash flow per Pemex come per i suoi competitors, e la necessità per Pemex, dopo due anni di significativo declino della propria capacità produttiva, di effettuare corposi investimenti per sostenerla.

Infatti i primi 9 mesi del 2008 hanno visto la produzione declinare dell'9,7% y-o-y, dopo un 2007 che a propria volta aveva visto una riduzione del 5,5% sull'anno precedente.

Costretta ad investire mentre i flussi di cassa si riducono, (e fermo restando il suo ruolo di generatrice di risorse fiscali per il Governo) Pemex si trova nell'alternativa fra posporre gli investimenti necessari ad arrestare il declino della produzione e indebitarsi per poterli sostenere con capitali presi a prestito, così incrementando il proprio leverage.

Peraltro, a fronte di un declino delle riserve stimate del 5,1% nel 2007, Pemex prevede un raddoppio della capacità di accrescimento delle riserve, che nelle intenzioni della società dovrebbe raggiungere il 100% del valore delle riserve estratte entro il 2012 contro il 50% del 2007.

Il punto è che in apparenza investimenti nell'ordine di 16,3 mld $ in media negli ultimi 3 anni non sono riusciti ad invertire il trend della produzione, mentre il valore degli investimenti è previsto in crescita a 20 mld $ nel 2009, il che genera perplessità sull'allocazione e l'effettività del Capex anche in vista del conseguimento degli obiettivi di lungo termine.

Nel 2009 ovviamente incideranno sui risultati di Pemex prezzi dell'oil molto più modesti di quelli del 2008.

Una volta aggiustato il dato del debito per tenere conto del carico pensionistico, il leverage di Pemex è stimato da Fitch all'1,3x, possibile di miglioramento ove la società riuscisse a concordare con i sindacati un accordo del tipo già entrato in vigore per i dipendenti pubblici.

Qualche buona notizia in termini di possibile accrescimento della flessibilità finanziaria di Pemex potrebbe venire dal carico fiscale gravante sulla società. Una riforma fiscale introdotta nel 2008 ha ridotto l'imposta sull'oil dal 79% al 74% del prezzo, con previsione di ulteriore contenimento al 71,5% entro il 2012 per effetto di progressive riduzioni.

Nel 2007 la quota di risorse destinate da Pemex allo stato messicano è stata pari al 59% del valore del venduto, e tale dato rappresento quello più elevato fra le compagnie petrolifere statali dell'america latina e fra i più alti al mondo.

Di seguito, il report di Fitch.
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Eccolo...

Fitch Affirms PEMEX's Ratings; Outlook to Stable
26 Jan 2009 6:25 PM (EST)

Fitch Ratings-New York-26 January 2009: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Petroleos Mexicanos' (PEMEX) foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB' and its local currency IDR at 'BBB+.' Fitch has simultaneously removed the ratings of PEMEX from Rating Watch Positive and has assigned them a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed the National long-term rating and all related nationally rated debt securities at 'AAA(mex)', as well as the National Short-term rating of F1+.

In conjunction with these rating actions, Fitch has affirmed the 'BBB' ratings of all debt issued by Pemex Project Funding Master Trust. The securities issued by Pemex Project Funding Master Trust have been removed from Rating Watch Positive.

The move to a Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that PEMEX might increase leverage to finance its aggressive capital budget and/or delay necessary investments to reverse declining production levels given the significantly lower cash flow generation potential in the current declining oil price environment. In addition, PEMEX's new fiscal regime and the Energy Reform provide limited benefits to improve the company's financial flexibility and attract private investment to the industry.

Further considered in this rating action was the revision of the Rating Outlook of Mexico ('BBB+'/'A-') to Negative from Stable during November 2008 and the close linkage of PEMEX's rating with that of the government.

PEMEX's ratings reflect its solid pretax financial and export-oriented operating profile, an attractive upstream cost structure, its fiscal importance to the sovereign, and its dominant domestic market position. The ratings also reflect PEMEX's significant debt levels, sizable but declining proven hydrocarbon reserves, weak net worth position, substantial tax burden, large capital investment requirements, and exposure to political interference risk.

As a state-owned oil company, PEMEX's foreign currency rating remains highly linked with the credit profile of the United Mexican States (UMS), whose Fitch foreign currency IDR is 'BBB+'. Despite pari-passu treatment with sovereign debt in the past, PEMEX's debt lacks UMS's explicit guarantee.

In the first nine months of 2008, PEMEX's crude oil production declined at an alarming rate of 9.7% to 2.822 million barrels of crude oil per day after declining by 5.5% in 2007. Declines in Cantarell were only partially offset by production increases primarily from the Ku-Maloob-Zaap fields. However, total hydrocarbon production has remained relatively constant since 2004 at about 4.4 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, as natural gas production increases in the Burgos and Veracruz fields have offset oil production declines.

Proven hydrocarbon reserves also continue to decline. In 2007 they fell by 5.1% to 14.7 billion BOE which represents an average life of 9 years. The company expects this negative trend to reverse in the future as reserve replacement reaches 100% by 2012. The proven reserve replacement rate has increased from 26% in 2005 to 50% in 2007 and is expected to be even higher in 2008. PEMEX was not able to translate high international oil prices into higher production in spite of increased investment which averaged $16.3 billion in the last three years and is expected to be about $20 billion in 2009. This highlights concerns regarding efficiency in capital expenditures allocation and the achievement of prospective long-term operating targets.

With relatively stable debt levels, PEMEX's 2008 credit metrics have improved due to rising cash flow that has resulted from elevated oil prices throughout most of the year. As of Sept. 30, 2008, total debt was $48 billion and leverage (Debt/EBITDA) was 0.6 times (x), an improvement from 0.8x during 2007. Adjusting for underfunded pension plan and OPEB debt, PEMEX's total adjusted debt is $96 billion and its adjusted leverage ratio is 1.3x. In dollar terms, these liabilities are declining with the current MXN devaluation and could drop even further if PEMEX reaches an accord with the union similar to the one reached by the Mexican government with public servants in 2007 (ISSTE Pension Reform). In 2009 Fitch expects credit metrics to deteriorate sharply due to depressed oil prices.

PEMEX's new fiscal regime and the Energy Reform provide limited benefits to improve the company's financial flexibility and attract private investments to the industry. Last year the Mexican Congress approved a comprehensive reform of both the energy sector and PEMEX legal frameworks, the so-called Energy Reform. Among other things, the Energy Reform improves PEMEX's corporate governance, increases management's execution capacity in investment decisions, allows the company to provide incentives or make modifications to awarded contracts, and stipulates the issuance of citizen bonds (debt securities which may be acquired by micro-investors and whose return is linked to PEMEX's performance).

The President's proposal to allow private-sector participation in storage, transportation and refining was eliminated from the final version of the Energy Reform due to opposition in Congress. These actions, together with limited upside under contract awards, might limit PEMEX's capacity to attract the necessary capital and technology for the growth of the industry, in particular for off-shore drilling where most of Mexico's hydrocarbon reserves are located.

Also, in 2008 a new tax regime for PEMEX went into effect, which reduces the ordinary hydrocarbon duty form 79% to 74% and will continue to decline by 0.5% a year until it reaches 71.5% in 2012. In October 2008, PEMEX's fiscal regime was modified again to increase the deduction caps for ordinary hydrocarbon duty purposes, which gives the company additional financial flexibility.

Nevertheless, PEMEX's contribution to the government continues to be the highest among the Latin American national oil companies and among the highest in the industry across the world. In 2007, total contributions to the government were about $62 billion, representing 59% of total revenues. Fitch believes that while the Energy Reform and the change in PEMEX's fiscal regime are positive, they only represent one step in the right direction, and there are still significant changes to be made in the sector.

PEMEX is Mexico's state oil and natural gas company. It is the nation's largest company and ranks among the world's largest vertically integrated petroleum enterprises, with 2007 proven oil and gas reserves of 14.7 billion BOE.
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Sull'ultimo bond Eni, il settennale (si veda il 3d di Giontra sulle nuove emissioni), alcune informazioni sul suo collocamento.

Significativo l'overbooking, domande per oltre 4 volte l'offerta.... :cool:

UPDATE 1-Eni 7-year bond issue to raise 1.5 bln euros
Thu Jan 22, 2009 8:44am EST

(Adds details, background)
MILAN, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The size of Eni's seven-year euro-denominated benchmark bond was set at 1.5 billion euros ($2 billion) after the issue attracted 6.5 billion of orders, sources close to the deal said on Thursday.

During the book-building, the lead manager for the issue narrowed the yield on the issue to the final 185 basis points over the mid-swap rate, from an initial guidance of around 200 basis points, the sources said.

"The bond issue aims at a correct balance between Eni's short and long-term debt," Eni said in a statement. It gave no details on the size or yield of the bond.
Eni mandated BBVA (BBVA.MC), HSBC (HSBA.L), Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) and UniCredit (CRDI.MI) to organise the issue, which is restricted to institutional investors, it said.

Last week, banking sources said Italian corporates had stayed away from bond markets since the start of the year, put off by the high cost of issues and poor credit ratings and waiting for improved conditions. (Reporting by Gabriella Bruscshi; Editing by David Holmes) ($1=.7706 Euro)
 

Imark

Forumer storico
come societa' mi potete dire il vostro pensiero chiedo scusa se approfitto :bow::bow::bow::bow::bow::bow:

Avrà un 2009 piuttosto complicato, fra prezzi di petrolio e gas attesi molto inferiori a quelli del 2008, una produzione di idrocarburi in netto calo già nel 2008 rispetto al 2007, un piano di investimenti significativo, sia in attività di prospezione e ricerca, sia in progetti che tendono a farne uno dei perni del sistema energetico spagnolo, mediante l'acquisizione diretta o indiretta di partecipazioni in utilities nazionali.

Secondo me se ne può detenere in quantità compatibili con una diversificazione prudente, senza esagerare ed in un'ottica leggermente speculativa, privilegiando scadenze non troppo lunghe.

Il debito lordo è cresciuto di recente a quota 6,8 mld euro a fine 2008, anno in cui Repsol ha partecipato (per 1,6 mld euro) all'aumento di capitale con cui Gas Natural, nella quale detiene una partecipazione del 30%, assumerà il controllo di Union Fenosa, una utility energetica.

A fronte di scadenze debitorie per 1,64 mld euro nel 2009, la società ha confermato che non ritiene di emettere nuovi bond intendendo valersi della liquidità disponibile (2,59 mld cash ed equivalenti, 3,57 mld linee di credito oltre a 1,68 mld in investimenti finanziari liquidabili) e che anche l'infusione di capitale in Gas Natural verrà fatta attingendo alla liquidità o impiegando le linee di credito.

Intende inoltre ridurre il capex (32,8 mld di investimenti previsti fra 2008 e 2012) cosi da attutire l'impatto dei ridotti prezzi di oil & gas sul free cash flow.

UPDATE 1-Repsol debt 6.3 bln euros, no bond plan on table

Mon Jan 19, 2009 3:24pm GMT

* Gross debt of 6.3 billion euros end-2008 ex Gas Natural
* Company says has no plans for new debt issue
* Available external financing 7.8 billion euros
* Investment plans "flexible" in face of falling demand

(Recasts, adds company comment on no plan to issue debt)
MADRID, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Repsol YPF (REP.MC) has 7.8 billion euros ($10.4 billion) in available financing and has no plans to issue bonds, Spain's biggest oil company, which had 6.3 billion euros debt at the end of 2008, said on Monday.

Analysts have speculated Repsol might be preparing a bond issue after a presentation outlining its debt position including the expiry of 1.64 billion euros of debt this year.

"We have no specific plans to carry out a bond issue," a Repsol spokesman said.

The financing available is made up of 2.59 billion euros cash, 3.57 billion in credit lines and 1.68 billion euros of financial investments. The figures do not include the debt Repsol assumes as owner of 30.8 percent of Gas Natural (GAS.MC).


Repsol will pour 1.6 billion euros into the Catalan gas group in the first half through a share issue GasNat is using to part finance its 16.7 billion euro acquisition of electricity producer Union Fenosa (UNF.MC).

The Catalan utility has taken out an 18.5 billion euros syndicated loan to finance the purchase of Fenosa.

Repsol has said it would finance its subscription to the share purchase through its own cash flow or by drawing on credit lines. The spokesman said no decision had yet been taken.

Repsol reiterated its warning of falling demand in the context of the global economic crisis during the presentation to fixed-income analysts, and said it would compensate lower cash flow by making its investment plans flexible. The company had planned to invest 32.8 billion euros between 2008 and 2012.

"We are revisiting our capex ... and renegotiating contracts in order to reduce the impact on free cash flow levels," Repsol said in the presentation.

At 1523 GMT, Repsol shares were down 0.1 percent at 14.14 euros, compared to a 2 percent fall in the IBEX-35 .IBEX index of blue-chip Spanish shares. (Reporting by Jonathan Gleave, editing by Dan Lalor)
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Successivamente ha anche quantificato un programma di taglio dei costi per 1,5 mld euro per il 2009, congelando fra l'altro il salario dei manager aziendali, ma senza incidere sul piano di investiemnti per 32,8 mld euro nel periodo 2008-2012

Repsol says plans 1.5 bln euros in cost-savings

Mon Feb 2, 2009 8:18am GMT


Madrid, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Spanish oil major Repsol YPF (REP.MC) is targeting 1.5 billion euros ($1.93 billion) in cost-savings to weather the economic crisis in 2009, a spokesman told Reuters on Monday.

The plan will freeze salaries for the company's managers, he said, citing a letter sent by chairman Antoni Brufau to employees on Friday.

"The plan is to be safe in 2009," the spokesman said, while noting that the cost-cuts will not affect the company's broader 2008-12 strategic plan for investments of 32.8 billion euros.

Spanish daily El Pais said the 1.5 billion euros in cost-savings represent about 10 percent of the company's 2009 budget.

At 0802 GMT, Repsol was down 1.85 percent at 13.78. (Reporting by Tracy Rucinski)
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Poi, a monte, c'è il problema degli assetti proprietari di Repsol. La quota di azionista di riferimento, in virtù di un pacchetto azionario del 20%, è detenuta dalla società di costruzioni Sacyr Vallehermoso, alla quale si aggiungono quelle di alcune banche spagnole a rimpolpare il pacchetto di controllo.

Il punto è che Sacyr è intenzionata a vendere per ridurre il proprio indebitamento (anche perché pressata a rientrata dalle banche), ma i potenziali acquirenti hanno, fra l'altro, il difetto di non piacere al Governo spagnolo, che vorrebbe che la quota restasse in mani spagnole, mentre Sacyr ha fino ad oggi avuto colloqui con la cinese Sinopec e la russa Lukoil, comunque condotti ad oggi senza esito.

UPDATE 2-Sacyr talks with Sinopec on Repsol sale-report

Wed Jan 14, 2009 3:05pm GMT

(Adds Sinopec not available for comment, updates shares)

MADRID, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Spanish builder Sacyr Vallehermoso (SVO.MC) is in talks to sell its 20 percent stake in oil major Repsol YPF (REP.MC) to China's Sinopec Corp (600028.SS) (0386.HK), Cinco Dias reported on Wednesday.

Both Sacyr and Repsol declined to comment on the report which pushed shares in Repsol higher, despite a downgrade on the Spanish stock by investment bank UBS which has a downbeat outlook for the oil sector. Sinopec was unavailable to comment.

Sacyr is looking to sell the stake to the Chinese oil giant at 26.7 euros per share, a near 70 percent premium to its market price and the same as offered to Russia's Lukoil (LKOH.MM) in recent dead-end talks, the paper said.

State-owned Sinopec Group is the parent of Sinopec Corp.
Repsol's shares rose as much as 2.9 percent on Wednesday, before losing gains to trade 0.64 percent lower at 15.50 euros at 1414 GMT, outperforming a 2.9 percent drop in the European oil and gas sector .SXEP.

One analyst said any Sinopec buy of the stake would be the first large purchase of a foreign firm by the Chinese company.

"Sinopec is looking to boost its reserves, it is looking more for liquids than gas, but this would be the first time it takes on such a large stake in a foreign company," said Boci Group's Lawrence Lau.

Two thirds of Repsol's falling production in the first nine months of 2008 was natural gas, but the company's crude production is expected to increase in the next few years thanks to its interests in deep sea oil fields off the coast of Brazil.

"Repsol will have oil production coming on stream in the next decade and China is a potential market for this," ING analyst Jason Kenney said.

He has a buy stance on Repsol and a 19.3 euro target price on the stock. Sacyr has been looking since September for a buyer for its Repsol stake to ease its debt burden.

But any deal is far from straightforward given the high asking price, political pressures for potential candidates from the Spanish government and difficulty in obtaining credit for a deal in times of low oil prices, broker BPI said in a note.

UBS cut Repsol YPF's rating to 'neutral' from 'buy' on Wednesday, trimming its target price to 16 euros from 17.5 euros per share. (Additional reporting by Sonya Dowsett; Editing by David Cowell)
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Alto