13-01-2009, 09:33
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#9 (permalink)
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Utente Senior
Data registrazione: Oct 2006
Messaggi: 16,951
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Un' articolo che preconizza il futuro dei carmakers europei
Postato da Lorenzov1963 nel 3D del Fiat finance, lo ripropongo qui perché di interesse su questo argomento.
PSA Peugeot-Citroen looks cheap. But even investors who view the company as a government-backed option on the long-term recovery of European autos need to believe that Peugeot can be more radical in its restructuring.
The immediate outlook is bleak. Car sales in Europe fell about 20% in 2008 and are likely to fall another 15% this year. As a result, J.P. Morgan predicts Peugeot's revenue will fall 15% in 2009 compared with the previous year, even worse than Renault's 12% decline and Fiat's 7%. Peugeot's share price has declined by 70% in the past year. It is worth a lowly 0.49 times estimated 2009 revenues -- compared with Renault at 0.79 times and Fiat at 0.42 times.
To mitigate that, the French state has lent a hand. The government recently lent around 500 million euros ($669 million) to Peugeot's finance arm. Credit Suisse estimates the car maker's 14.2 billion euros financing needs between the second half 2008 and first half 2009 are balanced by 14.6 billion euros of available liquidity. And the French state is mulling further action to strengthen domestic automakers. With such steadfast government support, Peugeot is well set to survive the downturn.
But the auto maker still needs to take tougher decisions. Its current CAP 2010 restructuring plan, running since 2007, might help restrict the car maker's 2009 operating loss in its automobile division to 34 million euros -- compared with 1.2 billion euros otherwise -- according to ING. But Peugeot still lacks scale.
To catch up on purchasing power, it might consider sharing platforms with Fiat, another small European car maker. Together they could save three billion euros annually, according to Credit Suisse. They wouldn't be alone. German premium automakers BWM and Daimler recently agreed to cooperate to save purchasing costs. Renault-Nissan's joint purchasing power has saved the companies around $8 billion.
Help from the French government by itself won't change the fact that Peugeot is too small. Brave moves will also be required to turn Peugeot's distressed valuation into a buying opportunity.
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Come dice il nostro Premier......bisogna essere ottimisti
