[paologorgo]

Morningstar analyst Todd Lukasik expects a flurry of purchase activity in the commercial real estate space, starting now and then intensifying in 2011 and 2012.
It's not so much that the commercial real estate market is healthy, but rather that there will be massive amounts of distressed properties as many property owners' untenable debt burdens come due. (For more background, see a previous post here)
Investment capital has been massing on the sidelines, waiting for the inevitable buying opportunities which will arise.
In fact, transaction activity has already begun to pick up as shown by the Morningstar tables below (click to enlarge images):


This is just the tip of the iceberg. You'd be forgiven if you underestimated the scale of new capital which will be required by distressed commercial real estate companies over the next few years:
Morningstar:

In its February report, the Congressional Oversight Panel concluded that about $700 billion in commercial real estate loans that come due between 2010 and 2014 are underwater. We think a sizable amount of the additional $700 billion in commercial real estate loans coming due during that time frame are loans that could not get refinanced at existing levels in the current lending environment. This suggests that there are at least hundreds of billions of dollars of incremental equity capital that need to be injected into commercial real estate to establish a "proper" leverage level. In fact, The Real Estate Roundtable, an industry group comprised of representatives from public and private real estate firms, has estimated this equity gap at about $1 trillion over the longer term.
We believe the industry's need to deleverage over the coming years will create an environment that fosters outright asset sales and joint venture transactions. We expect 2011 and 2012 to be particularly active years, as that's when many of the loans made in 2006 and 2007--years when property prices and lenders' risk appetites were simultaneously peaking--will start to come due
Thus it will be a great time for property investors with the capacity to acquire assets, ie. those that didn't take on too much leverage previously, or fresh players. Here are some key REIT picks from Mr. Lukasik:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/210290-commercial-real-estate-needs-significant-new-capital-to-be-bailed-out

[Imark]

Un mese di risalita dei prezzi del CRE USA quello di maggio 2010 nelle rilevazioni di Moody's, il secondo consecutivo. Ma il basso volume delle transazioni e le prospettive macroeconomiche non lascio grande spazio all'ottimismo circa la presenza di un trend stabile di risalita dei prezzi, secondo l'agenzia.

Moody's: US Commercial Real Estate Prices Rise 3.6% in May

New York, July 19, 2010 -- US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) increased 3.6% in May. It was the second monthly increase in a row, after the 1.7% rise in April.

"We expect commercial real estate prices to remain choppy in the coming months," said Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "The positive news of increasing prices over the past two months is tempered by low transaction volumes, forecasts for slowing macroeconomic growth and the rising risk of a double dip recession."

In May there were 107 repeat sales, down slightly from the 114 repeat sales in April. By dollar volume, the amount of repeat sales almost doubled, going up to over $1.5 billion in May from less than $800 million in April.

Nationwide, prices are currently 38.9% below their peak in October 2007 and have come back 8.6% from their October 2009 low.

Prices are down 6.3% over the past year and down 33.0% over the past two years.


The CPPI

Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Indices are based on the repeat sales of the same properties across the US at different points in time. Applying price changes measured in this way provides maximum transparency and methodological rigor. This approach also circumvents the distortions that can occur with other commercial property value measurements such as appraisals or average prices, says Moody's.

The report, "Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices, July 2010," is available on the company's website, Moody's - credit ratings, research, tools and analysis for the global capital markets. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies in "Structured Finance Quick Check" at redirecting.

[Imark]

Abbiamo saltato un passaggio: a giugno, i prezzi del CRE hanno ripreso a calare per effetto del rallentamento economico USA.

A luglio hanno confermato il trend con un nuovo forte calo, eccedente il 3%, e sono ora superiori al minimo raggiunto nell'ottobre 2009 per un modesto 0,9%.

Moody's: US commercial real estate prices fall 3.1% in July

New York, September 20, 2010 -- US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) decreased 3.1% in July, the second consecutive monthly decline of more than 3%.

Nationwide, prices are currently 43.2% below their peak in October 2007 and are only 0.9% above the recession low recorded in October 2009.

The CPPI has declined 7.3% in the past year, and dropped 35.9% in the past two years.

"Commercial real estate markets were caught in a downdraft as the economy appeared to further weaken in the early part of 2010, resulting in relatively large declines in the index in the early summer," said Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "The recent performance, while perhaps somewhat discouraging, should not come as a complete surprise. We have noted for several months that markets are likely to remain choppy for some time as property values slowly form a bottom in conjunction with a gradual recovery of the broader economy."

Additional annual indices published this month show prices on properties in the East increasing in three of the four property categories, office, retail, and apartments, over the past year. Prices in the fourth category, industrial properties, are down 7.6%. Retail properties in the East have the greatest gain in the region, increasing 12.9% during the year.

Retail prices in the South, in contrast, have declined 31.5% during the year. Prices have increased in southern apartment markets 1.4% over the last year, after dropping 44.2% in the previous year. The southern apartment index peaked three years ago and has declined 48.0% since then.

The Florida apartment market also realized its first positive return since its peak four year years ago, increasing 10.8% over the last year. Values are down 44.4% from the peak.

[paologorgo]

The depression continues for US commercial real estate. Tuesday, Moody's reported that its Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Index declined 3.3% in August, which means prices have fallen back down to levels not seen since 2002. The index is now 45% off its all time high reached back in Oct. 2007.
Below is a chart which shows the performance of the index since 2001.
click to enlarge

What is disturbing is how quickly the index has fallen over the last few months. The index is down almost 10% since the beginning of the year. It should be noted that the majority of transactions are distressed sales, which are largely responsible for the sharp decline. This is the major reason banks are not foreclosing on commercial properties. They don't want to be stuck with the losses when trying to resale the property. No wonder banks have been so willing to restructure and extend loan terms for commercial real estate. Extend and pretend is the name of the game right now.


Commercial Real Estate in Free Fall - Back to 2002 Levels -- Seeking Alpha

[Imark]

Fitch U.S. CMBS Newsletter: CREL CDO Delinquencies Nearing 13%

15 Oct 2010 9:00 AM (EDT) Fitch Ratings-New York-15 October 2010: Delinquencies for U.S. CREL CDOs continued to climb this past month, according to the latest U.S. CREL CDO delinquency index results from Fitch Ratings. The full results are featured in this week's U.S. CMBS newsletter.Delinquencies for September rose to 12.9%, with 19 new delinquent assets reported. 'Loans secured by office and multifamily properties represented over 70% of all new delinquencies,' said Director Stacey McGovern. 'Among the September delinquencies were eight term defaults, seven matured balloons and four credit impaired securities.' In September, 34 of 35 Fitch rated CREL CDOS reported delinquencies ranging from 1% to 41.3%.

CREL CDO asset managers reported over $70 million in realized losses from the disposal of distressed assets in September. Total realized losses across the CREL CDO universe total over $1.6 billion (approximately 7% of the collateral balance).

Additional information is available in Fitch's weekly e-newsletter, 'U.S. CMBS Market Trends'. The link below enables market participants to sign up to receive future issues of the E-newsletter


MagnetMail Surveys

[mago gambamerlo]

Al mom sono nel Nevada ; Mah un gran casino la storia Foreclosure e relative storie legali che sta gelando di nuovo il mercato su scala nazionale!
Poi si innesca la bomba della serie " Cavolo , il mio vicino non paga il mutuo , ha la macchina nuova , va fuori tutte le sere a mangiare e io sono piu' bischero di lui ? " e quindi smettono di pagare anche quelli che il mutuo lo potevano pagare ! Se non ci danno un taglio politico qui ce' da aspettarsi di tutto !!! ciao.

Originalmente inviato da Imark

Fitch U.S. CMBS Newsletter: CREL CDO Delinquencies Nearing 13%

15 Oct 2010 9:00 AM (EDT) Fitch Ratings-New York-15 October 2010: Delinquencies for U.S. CREL CDOs continued to climb this past month, according to the latest U.S. CREL CDO delinquency index results from Fitch Ratings. The full results are featured in this week's U.S. CMBS newsletter.Delinquencies for September rose to 12.9%, with 19 new delinquent assets reported. 'Loans secured by office and multifamily properties represented over 70% of all new delinquencies,' said Director Stacey McGovern. 'Among the September delinquencies were eight term defaults, seven matured balloons and four credit impaired securities.' In September, 34 of 35 Fitch rated CREL CDOS reported delinquencies ranging from 1% to 41.3%.

CREL CDO asset managers reported over $70 million in realized losses from the disposal of distressed assets in September. Total realized losses across the CREL CDO universe total over $1.6 billion (approximately 7% of the collateral balance).

Additional information is available in Fitch's weekly e-newsletter, 'U.S. CMBS Market Trends'. The link below enables market participants to sign up to receive future issues of the E-newsletter


MagnetMail Surveys

[Imark]

Originalmente inviato da mago gambamerlo

Al mom sono nel Nevada ; Mah un gran casino la storia Foreclosure e relative storie legali che sta gelando di nuovo il mercato su scala nazionale!
Poi si innesca la bomba della serie " Cavolo , il mio vicino non paga il mutuo , ha la macchina nuova , va fuori tutte le sere a mangiare e io sono piu' bischero di lui ? " e quindi smettono di pagare anche quelli che il mutuo lo potevano pagare ! Se non ci danno un taglio politico qui ce' da aspettarsi di tutto !!! ciao.

Ciao, teniamo d'occhio...

Intanto, i prezzi del CRE continuano a cadere su base mensile e si posizionano nuovamente al di sotto del minimo di prezzo fatto ad ottobre 2009, quando rimbalzarono sulla spinta delle valanghe di quattrini riversate sui mercati finanziari...

Moody's: US commercial real estate prices fall 3.3% in August


New York, October 19, 2010 -- US commercial real estate prices as measured by Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) decreased 3.3% in August, the third consecutive monthly decline between 3% and 4%.

Prices are now the lowest they have been since the beginning of the market downturn, falling below the previous low recorded in October 2009. Nationwide, prices are 45.1% below their peak in October 2007 and have returned to 2002 levels. The CPPI has declined 7.6% in the past year.

"The commercial real estate market in the US has become trifurcated with prices rising for performing trophy assets located in major markets, falling sharply for distressed assets, and remaining essentially flat for smaller healthy properties," said Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy.

Prior to 2009 there were only a few distressed sales and performing properties drove the CPPI. During the downturn, however, the number of distressed properties has increased, causing an increased weighting of the CPPI towards troubled properties that have had large negative rates of return.

The dollar amount of the repeat sales was slightly higher in August, totaling $1.85 billion, compared to $1.35 billion in July. However, the number of repeat sales remains significantly below what it was during the peak.

Moody's observes that commercial real estate prices are currently 19% below the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since December 2000. Over time Moody's expects the CPPI to revert to a long-term trend line close to that of the CPI.

[Imark]

Il deciso calo dei prezzi e la mancata immissione di nuova capienza sul mercato (i progetti CRE realizzati e collocati sul mercato nel post Lehman sono stati quantitativamente modesti, specie in segmenti come quello degli immobili ad uso industriale e dei centri commerciali e complessi per la vendita al retail) si accompagnano ad un trend di buona ripresa della domanda - in crescita in quasi tutti i segmenti del settore - ad opinione di Moody's, continuato nel Q3/2010.

Tutti i segmenti del CRE hanno abbandonato l'area rossa (di debolezza del mercato) e sono passati all'area gialla (che segnala condizioni di neutralità del mercato) con il settore dell'edilizia residenziale multifamiliare (che in USA è considerato CRE) che migliora ulteriormente rispetto al passato ma con minore progressione, considerato comunque che aveva visto un salto in avanti nell'area verde (che segnala condizioni di buon andamento del mercato) già alcuni trimestri fa e che resta a tutt'oggi il solo segmento del CRE in area verde.

D'altronde, anche chi defaulta su di un mutuo per una casa unifamiliare ha bisogno di avere un tetto sopra la testa, e quindi questo segmento del CRE aveva tratto vantaggio dalla crisi.

La capacità di generazione di reddito degli immobili commerciali appare in progresso non solo nel segmento dell'immobiliare residenziale multifamiliare (in cui il vacancy rate - livello di non utilizzazione delle unità immobiliari) continua a mostrare una riduzione sensibile di trimestre in trimestre, ma anche in quello alberghiero, con una risalita del "fatturato per stanza" generato nel settore.

In altri settori, come quello degli uffici posizionati in central business districts, il vacancy rate è ancora aumentato nel Q3/2010, ma solo in misura marginale.

Per Moody's, la tendenza è ad un ulteriore miglioramento delle condizioni di mercato, con domanda in salita per quasi tutte le tipologie di immobiliare commerciale nel 2011, grazie alla mancata immissione sul mercato di nuovi progetti e alla riduzione del vacancy rate nei complessi immobiliari esistenti prevista per il 2011.

Moody's: U.S. Commercial real estate markets continue improvement

New York, October 21, 2010 -- Commercial real estate markets across the U.S. continued on a trend of improvement over the third quarter, according to Moody's Investors Service's latest study. With conditions improving dramatically in the two hotel sectors, all seven property types tracked by Red-Yellow-Green® have moved out of market conditions considered weak or in the Red category.

"In general, the commercial real estate markets remain in the uncertain yellow range," says Moody's Vice President - Senior Analyst Keith Banhazl. "However, the future appears to brighten with each passing quarter."

Moody's Banhazl explains that all property types but suburban offices have positive demand forecasts over the next year. With minimal new supply, projected absorption should cause vacancy rates to turn the corner and begin coming down in 2011.

In the third quarter all seven property types saw improved scores indicating better market conditions, with only the multifamily sector not posting improvement in its supply-demand relationship. The vaulting of the two hotel property types from deep red territory into yellow reflected improvements in their year-over-year revenue per available room measures, or RevPAR.

Moody's Red-Yellow-Green® report scores markets on a scale of 0 (weak) to 100 (strong) and describes them in traffic light colors, with scores of 0-33 identified as red, 34-66 as yellow, and 67 -- 100 as green. The new 2010 third quarter study reflects data from the second quarter of 2010.

SECTOR BY SECTOR ANALYSIS

During the third quarter, the full-service hotel score jumped 30 points after a 24-point jump the previous quarter to end at Yellow 54, due to a significant improvement in year-over-year RevPAR growth of 8.8%, up from 0.3% the previous quarter.

The limited-service hotel sector saw a similar score improvement, surging 31 points to Yellow 46. The sector posted its first quarter of RevPAR growth since 2008 with a 5.1% increase over the previous year.

Both hotel sectors now have better scores than the currently lowest scoring sector, suburban offices, which has a score of Yellow 40 after a five-point improvement during the quarter. While its demand projection is still slightly negative, at -0.1%, this measure improved from the -0.6% of the previous quarter.

The offices in central business districts (CBDs) also improved five points during the quarter, to Yellow 60. The vacancy rate increased during the quarter, but only by a small margin, from 12.9% to 13.0%.

Three sectors posted small two-point gains. The only sector with a Green score, multifamily, rose two points to Green 88, as the sector's vacancy rate dropped for the second quarter in a row, from 6.5% to 6.0%.

The retail score rose two points from Yellow 60 to Yellow 62, after supply remained the same but projected demand became positive, at 0.2%, leading to a flat supply-demand balance.

The industrial sector's two-point tick upwards moved it to Yellow 57, with a supply-demand balance of 0.6% thanks mainly to an almost nonexistent supply pipeline of 0.1%.

METROPOLITAN MARKET ANALYSIS

Overall, the composite score for the U.S. was Yellow 61, an eight-point improvement from the 53 score of the previous quarter.

The scores of the top 10 cities found most frequently in CMBS, based on dollar volume, are as follows, with the previous quarter's score in parenthesis: New York 76 (64), Los Angeles 73 (63), Washington DC 71 (55), San Francisco 66 (61), Philadelphia 62 (55), Miami 60 (53), Chicago 55 (46), Houston 50 (44), Dallas 47 (40), and Atlanta 45 (41).

The five best markets in the U.S. are: Honolulu 78 (68), New York 76 (64), Los Angeles 73 (63), Washington DC 71 (55), and Nashville 68 (49).

The five worst markets in the U.S. are: Detroit 32 (31), Hartford 34 (28), Trenton 35 (31), Phoenix 41 (35), and Las Vegas 44 (42).

The rating agency's report, "CMBS: Red --Yellow -- Green™ Update, Third Quarter 2010 Quarterly Assessment of U.S. Property Markets" is available on the company's web site, Moody's - credit ratings, research, tools and analysis for the global capital markets.