Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Il cassetto degli obbligazionisti perpetui (1 Viewer)

[Omero]

amico mio, ma quando hai ste idee facci partecipi, cmq penso di prenderle anche io

solo che ora costano un po di più.


su commerz volevo entrare inotrno ai 5,5 ma ho tergiversato...



prudential l'hai presa direttamente a Londra?




sto pensando di uscire dai 2 perpetuals irlandesi e mettere quei soldini sulle 2 azioni equivalenti ci devo pensare...






dipende da titolo a titolo e da molti fattori io sono molto dinamico al riguardo.

al momento ti dico che ho fissato questi tp, poi vedremo, cmq cambio idea ogni 2 minuti...

Banco popolare tp 6,5 (+30%)

Sns tp 6 (+50%)

ciao bos

prudential presa ieri a londra con sterlina debole.

Sulla UK preferisco di gran lunga le azioni permettono di ammortizzare una eventuale (non remota seconedo me) svalutazione della sterlina.
Se la borsa inglese sale e con lei le azini delle banke forse non c'è bisogno di svalutare altrmenti penso che rivedremo 0,95 £/€ per quello le obbligazioni in £ prese a prezzi superiori a 70 non mi piacciono tanto.

In genere compero sulla piazza di casa del titolo, tranne quelle dove le commissioni sono esose, allora mi rivolgo all'ADR o GDR su lodra o francoforte (titoli russi tipo gazprom, lukoil, severstal,..) non sno molto liquidi ma non c'è alternativa per me se volgio investire in azioni russe (potete dare un occhita anche a questi due ticker su new york MTL e WBD)

DT mipiace perchè a questi prezzi paga un bel dividendo.
Magyar telecom (MTA) è il braccio ungherese di DT paga buoni dividendi.

Su AIB l'ingresso è stato ottimo ma dovevo recuperare la perdita fatta a Dublino, quindi non è oro che luccica.

 

[maxinblack]

Ciao a tutti

vi comunico un altro forum specializzato olandesesu steepeners e perpetual

IEX.nl - Perpetuals, Steepeners

fra l'altro il 3 e 10 3d sono dedicati ai P di SNS usate ovviamente il trad di googgle

Non solo ho trovato interessante il primo 3d "perpetual e steepeners portfolio" c'e' una disamina di come sia opportuno comprare adesso i bond con struttura:
4x10a-2a

pubblica una serie di bond con tale struttura un po come il 3d sulle rabo 2035
sono tutti abbondantemente sotto la pari. e molti sono nostre vecchie conoscenze che ne dite? postero anche sul cassetto obbligazionista perpetualista

6% cum pref non Alpha Group in 2005
Fund Code 15,187, Isincode DE000A0DX3M2;
Interest to 18/2/10 6%, then 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with a minimum 3.25% and max 10%;
Noncumulative preferred, perpetual, callable 18/2/15;
Last Done 48.00 (on 25/9/09, so very illiquid!, Slightly more marketable in Frankfurt)

6% Deutsche Postbank Perp. II 2004
Fund Code 11,657, Isincode DE000A0DHUM0;
Interest 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with a minimum 3.75% and max 10%;
Non-cumulative trust preferred securities, perpetual, callable from 23/12/09 (not done!);
Last Done 74.34

6% Dutch Waterschapsbank 05-35
Fund Code 15,378, Isincode XS0219499653;
Interest to 1/6/10 6%, then 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with min max 2% and 9%;
Repayment on 1/6/35;
Last Done 83.01

6948 Dutch Waterschapsbank 05-35%
Fund Code 15,501, Isincode XS0225342970;
Interest 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with min and max 1.5% 9%;
Callable from 15/8/15, 15/8/35 repayment;
Last Done 83.23

NIB Capital Bank 2005-2040 FX Rate
Fund Code 15,157, Isincode XS0210781828;
Interest 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with a minimum 2.85% and 8.5% max;
Callable on 21/2/35, 21/2/40 repayment;
Last Done 47.10

5548% Rabo Ned Steepener 2005-35 (15181)
Fund Code 15,181, Isincode XS0211840391;
Interest 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with min max 2% and 9%;
Callable from 23/2/10, 23/2/35 repayment;
Last Done 84.54

5548% Rabo Steepener Notes 2005-35 (15197)
Fund Code 15,197, XS0211174049;
Interest 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with min and max 2.5% 9%;
Callable from 22/2/10, 22/2/35 repayment
Last Done 86.00

6% Rabobank 2005-35
Fund Code: 15328; Isincode XS0217518397;
Interest 6% to 9/5/10, then 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with min max 2% and 9%;
Callable from 9/5/10, 9/5/35 repayment;
Last Done 83.50

6164% Rabobank Netherlands 2005-35
Fund Code 15263; Isincode XS0214155458
Interest 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with min max 2% and 9%;
Repayment on 23/3/35;
Last Done 87.75

SNS Bank 6% 05-35
Fund Code 15171; Isincode: XS0209792166;
Interest 6% to 26/1/10, then 4 * (10yr - 2yr CMS) with a minimum 3% and up 10%;
Repayment on 26/1/35;
Last Done 72.50

Floaters with a spread rate depending
These products, unlike the "real" Steepener that in a steep yield curve can provide a very high rate, but a smaller spread in the rate to a lower (or no) interest could lead.

With a fixed rate cap:
ABN AMRO Range Accrual Note
Fund Code 11,679, Isincode NL0000116796;
Interest to 17/3/10 6%, then 5.6% * (% of days (10yr - 2yr CMS)> 0);
Unsecured, unsubordinated, redemption on 16/3/35
Last Done 68.09

6.5% Merrill Lynch Note 07-37
Fund Code 81,774, Isincode XS0294239628;
Interest to 18/5/12 6.5%, after 6.5% * (% of days (10yr - 2yr CMS)> 0);
Callable from 18/5/12, 18/5/37 repayment;
Last Done 70.55

With CMS (+ any storage) as the upper limit:
7% Deutsche Bank Trust 1 End Cap 05-20
Fund Code 11,725, Isincode DE000A0E5JD4;
Interest to 27/6/10 7%, then 1.75% 10yr CMS with min and max 10 * (10y - 2Yr CMS);
Trust Preferred Securities, perpetual, callable from 27/6/15, 27/6/35 repayment;
Last Done 63.00

3643% European Invest. Bank 05-30
Fund Code 15511; Isincode XS0224480722
Interest 10yr CMS with max 7 * (10yr - 2yr CMS)
Callable from 17/8/09, 17/8/30 repayment;
Last Done 76.43

5266% JPMorgan (Princ Prot) 05-35
Fund Code 15,435, Isincode XS0221896110;
Interest 10yr CMS + 165 bp with a maximum of 8 * (10y - 2Yr CMS);
callable from 30/6/15, 27/6/35 repayment;
Last Done 60.20

0% JPMorgan 05-35
Fund Code 15,540, Isincode XS0228393731;
Interest (10yr CMS + 70 bp) *% days (10yr - 2yr CMS)> 0.25
Callable from 30/9/15, 30/9/35 repayment;
Last Done 58.75

 

[maxinblack]

Vi riporto la teoria dell'acquisto degli steepeners trovato sul forum 4x10a-2a al momento attuale, mi piacerebbe avere pareri piu' qualificati.




Indeed in recent years we were confronted with an extremely low interest rate differential between 2 and 10 year swap rate, or with a very flat yield curve.

In the context of this article, there are the flat yield curve where the difference between 2 and 10 year rate is less than 0.25% is.

The recent developments in the credit market, influenced by the problems in the subprime crisis, the curve is somewhat versteild.

The real question is will this continue steepening, what lies at the root and how far can this trend continue.

Sometimes it is good to take a step back in time.

I also go and see how the 2 / 10 year yield curve has worn since 1970.

We see that there is a cyclical pattern in this plot development is to observe the following characteristics.

1 a cyclical movement in the 2.10 spread that lasts approximately 9 years, of which about 4.5 years and 4.5 years an upswing a seesaw. 
2 the average results in the cyclic period is about 270 basis points positive, and 100 bp. negative 
3 the period 1973-1995 was further extended by the unification of Germany. In that period, the maximum results 200 bp. positive and 200 bp. negative. 
4 The 2 year rate moves in a shorter cyclical movements roughly 9 years 
5 The cyclical movement in the 10-year is about 7.25 years. 
6 Since 1995, we see a rash becoming smaller. In this period we have a positive curve of 200 bp but not negative 
7 The most recent movement began in 2000 with a peak in 2004 and one end of the trend in 2007.

Since August 2006, the 2.10-year spread is smaller than 25 bp and a very short period even slightly negative. Recently the spread widened again to about 50 bp.
Also in the swap rates we see a similar pattern, because since December 2007 is the 2.10-year swap spread back 40 bps and higher.

What more can we expect?

In previous cycles, the steepening yield curve through the deployed through the short side of the curve, namely the change in the 2 year rate, which is also a pattern longer than the 10 year.

When central banks announce their monetary policy tightening will not go, so stop raising short rates, we see a decline in the 2 year rate.

This is currently applicable.

The European Central Bank, though still very vigilant. Gives its policy of rate increases put stop, now the refi rate is increased from 2 to 4%.

A first signal of change of policy by the ECB, and the shift to expansionary monetary policy, even by cutting interest rates, in my opinion should be expected by mid year.

This analysis shows that a cyclical pattern occurs in the difference between 2 and 10 year rate, driven by either structural or incidental factors. Similarly, it appears that for decades the interest rate difference, irrespective of the amount of the nominal interest rate, operates within certain marhes, both positive and negative. We also know that a flat or inverted yield curve is not normal and certainly does not stand long, and after a certain time knows will return to normal.

I can not find arguments which I should infer that the pattern of the past 35 years will now change contrast, all indicators suggest that we are on the eve of a further normalization of the yield curve. The rate at which this occurs and the extent to which the curve further versteild is important.

Based on historical trends, I may presume to assume that this cycle, which recently deployed in the second half of 2011 will reach its peak, with an interest rate differential between 2 and 10 year interest rate of between 100 and 150 bp.

Certainly not for every investor, but for those who have patience and have a certain impact have speculative (and who does not exist at investor days), the so discredited Steepener bonds issued in the years 2004-2006, and mostly impaired to 70% and lower prices, bring back some value.

If my vision is correct and the next few years the 2.10-year spread rose again to 125% over current rates seem promising for a repair, and an above average return possible. More attractive are those loans over the next 2 years have a fixed coupon offer in 2010-11 and the spread 4 times the difference of 2 Russians and 10 year interest be valued

You can think of:

For loans from prime borrowers stretching to 2015 KFW 1.5% annually in May in which the coupon is adjusted to 4 times (10-2 yrs) swaps. Rate now 86% 
European INV. Bank 1.5% running until 2015, with annual coupon is adjusted in May 3 times (10-2yrs) swap interest rate now 85% 
Europ.Inv Bank 5% running tor 2020, with effect from Feb.., 2008 the annual coupon is adjusted to 4 times (10-2yrs) interest rate swap now 79 
Rabobank 6% running until 2035. 2010 to receive a 6% coupon, from May 2010 to 2035 annual 5 times (10-2yrs) swap interest rate now 72% 
For the more speculative investor: 
BNP running 5% to 2020. Until June 2010 will receive a 6% coupon annually thereafter 
4 times (30-2yrs) swap rate, current rate 77%

 

[saverio1973]

Vi riporto la teoria dell'acquisto degli steepeners trovato sul forum 4x10a-2a al momento attuale, mi piacerebbe avere pareri piu' qualificati.




Indeed in recent years we were confronted with an extremely low interest rate differential between 2 and 10 year swap rate, or with a very flat yield curve.

In the context of this article, there are the flat yield curve where the difference between 2 and 10 year rate is less than 0.25% is.

The recent developments in the credit market, influenced by the problems in the subprime crisis, the curve is somewhat versteild.

The real question is will this continue steepening, what lies at the root and how far can this trend continue.

Sometimes it is good to take a step back in time.

I also go and see how the 2 / 10 year yield curve has worn since 1970.

We see that there is a cyclical pattern in this plot development is to observe the following characteristics.

1 a cyclical movement in the 2.10 spread that lasts approximately 9 years, of which about 4.5 years and 4.5 years an upswing a seesaw. 
2 the average results in the cyclic period is about 270 basis points positive, and 100 bp. negative 
3 the period 1973-1995 was further extended by the unification of Germany. In that period, the maximum results 200 bp. positive and 200 bp. negative. 
4 The 2 year rate moves in a shorter cyclical movements roughly 9 years 
5 The cyclical movement in the 10-year is about 7.25 years. 
6 Since 1995, we see a rash becoming smaller. In this period we have a positive curve of 200 bp but not negative 
7 The most recent movement began in 2000 with a peak in 2004 and one end of the trend in 2007.

Since August 2006, the 2.10-year spread is smaller than 25 bp and a very short period even slightly negative. Recently the spread widened again to about 50 bp.
Also in the swap rates we see a similar pattern, because since December 2007 is the 2.10-year swap spread back 40 bps and higher.

What more can we expect?

In previous cycles, the steepening yield curve through the deployed through the short side of the curve, namely the change in the 2 year rate, which is also a pattern longer than the 10 year.

When central banks announce their monetary policy tightening will not go, so stop raising short rates, we see a decline in the 2 year rate.

This is currently applicable.

The European Central Bank, though still very vigilant. Gives its policy of rate increases put stop, now the refi rate is increased from 2 to 4%.

A first signal of change of policy by the ECB, and the shift to expansionary monetary policy, even by cutting interest rates, in my opinion should be expected by mid year.

This analysis shows that a cyclical pattern occurs in the difference between 2 and 10 year rate, driven by either structural or incidental factors. Similarly, it appears that for decades the interest rate difference, irrespective of the amount of the nominal interest rate, operates within certain marhes, both positive and negative. We also know that a flat or inverted yield curve is not normal and certainly does not stand long, and after a certain time knows will return to normal.

I can not find arguments which I should infer that the pattern of the past 35 years will now change contrast, all indicators suggest that we are on the eve of a further normalization of the yield curve. The rate at which this occurs and the extent to which the curve further versteild is important.

Based on historical trends, I may presume to assume that this cycle, which recently deployed in the second half of 2011 will reach its peak, with an interest rate differential between 2 and 10 year interest rate of between 100 and 150 bp.

Certainly not for every investor, but for those who have patience and have a certain impact have speculative (and who does not exist at investor days), the so discredited Steepener bonds issued in the years 2004-2006, and mostly impaired to 70% and lower prices, bring back some value.

If my vision is correct and the next few years the 2.10-year spread rose again to 125% over current rates seem promising for a repair, and an above average return possible. More attractive are those loans over the next 2 years have a fixed coupon offer in 2010-11 and the spread 4 times the difference of 2 Russians and 10 year interest be valued

You can think of:

For loans from prime borrowers stretching to 2015 KFW 1.5% annually in May in which the coupon is adjusted to 4 times (10-2 yrs) swaps. Rate now 86% 
European INV. Bank 1.5% running until 2015, with annual coupon is adjusted in May 3 times (10-2yrs) swap interest rate now 85% 
Europ.Inv Bank 5% running tor 2020, with effect from Feb.., 2008 the annual coupon is adjusted to 4 times (10-2yrs) interest rate swap now 79 
Rabobank 6% running until 2035. 2010 to receive a 6% coupon, from May 2010 to 2035 annual 5 times (10-2yrs) swap interest rate now 72% 
For the more speculative investor: 
BNP running 5% to 2020. Until June 2010 will receive a 6% coupon annually thereafter 
4 times (30-2yrs) swap rate, current rate 77%

E' un piacere leggervi ed imparare da tutti VOI complimenti
Qualcuno ha da farmi studiare quanche bond di questi che ha acquistato tanto per iniziare ad entrare in un campo a me sconosciuto?
Dove posso trovare maggiori informazioni?
Un saluto e grazie

 

[porchetto]

Ma datevi un'occhiata al tread "Carige" sul FOL...

sembra tornato il grande ingsilvio

 

[porchetto]

Dopo Aver Letto Sono Rimasto Cosi Addirittura non si Può Vendere fino al 2011 perchè cosi cè scritto nel Prospetto.....Robe da Matti

comprate case ragazzi la casa non fallisce,

la borsa è il luogo dove si separano i soldi dagli sciocchi.

 

[frankiemachine]

comprate case ragazzi la casa non fallisce,

la borsa è il luogo dove si separano i soldi dagli sciocchi.

se mi dici dove si possono comprare anche a 5-10k alla volta potrei farci un pensiero.......a proposito, quanto rende un appartamento al netto?? ci arriva ad un 2-3% anno??

 

[frankiemachine]

E' un piacere leggervi ed imparare da tutti VOI complimenti
Qualcuno ha da farmi studiare quanche bond di questi che ha acquistato tanto per iniziare ad entrare in un campo a me sconosciuto?
Dove posso trovare maggiori informazioni?
Un saluto e grazie

temo che tu debba fare come tutti.....parti da pagina 1 del 3d delle P.......e buona lettura

 

[Broker88]

Mi è andata di lusso la settimana Over the Counter Broker Fund: aggiornamento al 05/03/2010 anche se è stato facile perchè a sto giro è salito tutto!

 

[dierre]

comprate case ragazzi la casa non fallisce,

la borsa è il luogo dove si separano i soldi dagli sciocchi.

Vero, la casa non fallisce, però forse oggi non è più come venti/30 anni fà.
Investire 200k in un appartamento per affittarlo, primo devi sperare che ti paghino sempre l'affitto, e dopo sperare che quando l'inquilino va via non ti faccia dei danni.
Per non parlare nel caso in cui non ti paghi....
incazzature, soldi per l'avvocato ecc. ecc.
Ps
Magari al meeting del 27 mi pacerebbe approfondire questo tema con te che sei del settore.

se mi dici dove si possono comprare anche a 5-10k alla volta potrei farci un pensiero.......a proposito, quanto rende un appartamento al netto?? ci arriva ad un 2-3% anno??

Concordo!