Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
La floating che ha paga 279.3 bps in meno (secondo BBG), pari passu stesso value date della cedola sta sopra...
... tutto detto
Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1 (7 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione TRADING_IDEAS
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
La floating che ha paga 279.3 bps in meno (secondo BBG), pari passu stesso value date della cedola sta sopra...
... tutto dettofabriziof
Forumer storico
La floating che ha paga 279.3 bps in meno (secondo BBG), pari passu stesso value date della cedola sta sopra...
Da sempre ,ma perché?
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Contrario a qualsiasi logica. Penso che quella ha tasso fisso essendo piu' grossa come o/s sia anche piu' liquida percui possa essere piu' facilmente esposta a sbalzi di prezzo. Non trovo nessun'altra spiegazione.
fedro10
è la somma che fa il totale...
Takko Luxembourg 2 S.C.A. Anleihe: 9,875% bis 15.04.2019
ciao hai venduto Takko ????
ciao hai venduto Takko ????
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
Takko ri-downgradata dopo poco piu' di un mese e mezzo
German Apparel Retailer Takko Fashion Rating Lowered To 'CCC+' On Weak Results, Tight Covenant Headroom; Outlook Stable
Publication date: 22-Dec-2014 13:39:41 EST
View Analyst Contact Information
German apparel retailer Takko Fashion S.a.r.l. posted weak second-quarter results, revealing a drop in like-for-like sales of 10.3% year-on-year.
Its financial covenant headroom is now below 10%.
As a result, we have lowered our long-term rating on Takko Fashion by one notch to 'CCC+' and our issue rating on Takko Fashion's senior secured notes to 'CCC' from 'CCC+'; the '5' recovery rating is unchanged.
The stable outlook reflects our expectations that Takko Fashion's like-for-like sales and profitability will not deteriorate further and that it will not breach its covenants over the next 12 months.
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) Dec. 22, 2014--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on German apparel retailer Takko Fashion S.a.r.l. to 'CCC+' from 'B-'. The outlook is stable. As a consequence, we lowered our issue rating on Takko Luxembourg 2 S.C.A.'s €525 million senior secured notes to 'CCC' from 'CCC+'. The recovery rating of '5' is unchanged, indicating our expectation of modest (10%-30%) recovery in the event of a payment default. The downgrade reflects Takko Fashion's significantly weaker-than-expected like-for-like sales, which declined 10.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of the current fiscal year (ending April 30, 2015). The company's adjusted EBITDA dropped 36% year-on-year and was €89.5 million on a trailing-12-month basis through Oct. 31, 2014. According to our estimates, this will lead to covenant headroom of less than 10% by year end, and we expect headroom to tighten further over the coming years. Consequently, we lowered our assessment of Takko Fashion's liquidity to "less than adequate" from "adequate." We lowered the rating in light of our expectation of its covenant headroom tightening further (including the risk of a breach particularly if there is another unexpectedly weak quarter) and negative free operating cash flow. In our view, absent unexpected, favorable business developments, Takko Fashion's leverage metrics will likely worsen further, and its financial commitments appear to be unsustainable in the long term. Over the coming 12 months, however, in our base-case scenario, the company does not face a credit or payment crisis. Takko Fashion has revised its business strategy through measures such as renegotiating rental contracts, closing loss-making stores, launching more focused marketing campaigns, and rolling out best practices across all stores. In our view, these steps could boost EBITDA and cash flow growth. However, there's no guarantee that these efforts will be effective, and even if they are, it will likely take at least two years for them to fully translate into improved financials. We continue to assess Takko Fashion's business risk profile as "weak." Our assessment stems from our expectation of declines in like-for-like sales and profitability for the current fiscal year as a whole and only small improvements thereafter. In the absence of large working capital swings, this should translate into operating cash flow that is insufficient to cover planned capital expenditures. Our assessment also reflects the company's reliance on discretionary consumer spending from mid- to lower-income families and its positioning in the price-competitive value retail clothing market. The company competes against both high-street fashion retailers and hard discounters. In the past, weather conditions have had a strong effect on Takko Fashion's sales, which makes the group's profitability volatile. Due to its geographic concentration in Germany, other regions in which the company is active--such as Central and Eastern Europe--contribute little to reduce sales volatility. In addition, the company is exposed to changes in fashion trends, leading to a constant risk of inventory write-downs. On the positive side, fashion trends are slightly less important in the value segment than in higher-price segments of the apparel industry. Also, we regard competition from online retailing as less severe in the discount and value segment, as there is generally less room to optimize costs. Takko Fashion's business model is characterized by vertical integration, with in-house design and sourcing of products directly from manufacturers. Combined with the focus on locating stores outside high-rent city centers, the company is able to generate above-average EBITDA margins. However, its profit volatility is above average, mainly because sales are correlated with weather trends. This largely offsets Takko Fashion's high EBITDA margin compared with other apparel retailers. We assess Takko Fashion's financial risk as "highly leveraged" due to its private equity ownership and its weak credit metrics. Both of our core leverage ratios--debt to EBITDA and funds from operations (FFO) to debt--strongly indicate an assessment in this highest financial risk category, and we expect these ratios to worsen further. We estimate that Takko Fashion's adjusted FFO to debt will average 3%-5% and its adjusted debt to EBITDA should reach about 7.5x-8.5x. Reported EBITDA to cash interest coverage should be about 1.1x. On a fully Standard & Poor's-adjusted basis, EBITDA interest coverage is approximately 1.5x. We believe that the group's operating cash flow will be insufficient to cover its planned capital expenditures. Therefore, the company's existing cash sources and revolving credit facility (RCF) must be able to cover the costs of both ongoing operations and any potential disruptions that lead to a drop in EBITDA and operating cash flow. As of Oct. 31, 2014, including guarantees, Takko Fashion had used 20%-25% of its RCF. In any case, given the company's financial sponsorship, our assessment of Takko Fashion's financial risk profile is currently capped at "highly leveraged." Our base case assumes:An overall stable German economic environment, with real consumer spending rising by 0.8% and 0.6% year-on-year in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
A slight reduction in the number of stores and negative like-for-like sales growth in fiscal 2014/2015, followed by broadly flat like-for-like sales in fiscal 2015/2016.
Despite revenue support from stores opened during last fiscal year, this should translate into slight year-on-year revenue declines.
Adjusted for one-off expenses such as inventory revaluation losses, Takko's EBITDA margin should fall to 8%-9% from 9.5% in fiscal 2013/2014. This translates into a Standard & Poor's-adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%-20%.
Slight improvements in working capital.
Capital expenditure of about €30 million-€35 million per year.
Operating cash flow insufficient to fully cover capital expenditure.
Based on these assumptions, we arrive at the following Standard & Poor's-adjusted credit measures:FFO to debt of 3%-5%.
Debt to EBITDA of 7.5x-8.5x.
EBITDA interest coverage of 1.5x, with reported EBITDA cash interest coverage of about 1.1x.
The stable outlook reflects our view that Takko Fashion's like-for-like sales will decline in 2014/2015 and stay flat thereafter and that our Standard & Poor's-adjusted EBITDA margin stays in the region of 19%-20%. We forecast no breach of financial covenants over the coming 12 months. Downside scenarioWe could consider another downgrade if market circumstances or other factors lead to a further severe deterioration in revenues, EBITDA, and cash flows, which would likely lead to Takko breaching its financial covenants. Upside scenarioWe could consider an upgrade if the company improved its operating performance over several quarters, demonstrating that management's strategic initiatives can turn around performance. Recovery AnalysisKey analytical factorsThe issue and recovery ratings on the company's €525 million senior secured notes (comprised of €400 million 8.25% notes due 2020 and €125 million floating rate notes due 2020) are 'CCC' and '5', respectively. The recovery rating reflects the substantial amount of prior-ranking debt and the company's limited tangible asset base.
Our hypothetical default scenario assumes that a weak macroeconomic environment reduces discretionary spending, together with inflated sourcing costs that the group is unable to pass on to customers.
We value Takko Fashion as a going concern due to its strong position as a value fashion apparel retailer.
Due to the competitive nature of the retail industry, liquidation could also be a possible post-default outcome. This not our main assumption, but we believe that recovery prospects could be materially lower under a liquidation due to the group's limited amount of tangible assets.
Simulated default assumptionsYear of default: 2016
EBITDA at emergence: €78 million
Implied enterprise valuation (EV) multiple: 5x
Jurisdiction: Germany
Simplified waterfallGross enterprise value at default: €390 million
Administrative costs: €20 million
Net value available to creditors: €370 million
Priority debt claims: €39 million ^
Super senior secured debt claims: €222 million *
Senior secured debt claims: €546 million *
Recovery expectation: 10%-30% (lower half of range)
^ Priority claims include finance leases. * All debt amounts include six months' prepetition interest. RELATED CRITERIA AND RESEARCHThe Treatment Of Non-Common Equity Financing In Nonfinancial Corporate Entities, April 29, 2014
Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Jan. 2, 2014
Key Credit Factors For The Retail And Restaurants Industry, Nov. 19, 2013
Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013
Corporate Methodology: Ratios and Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013
Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012
Criteria For Assigning 'CCC+', 'CCC', 'CCC-', And 'CC' Ratings, Oct. 10, 2012
Criteria Guidelines For Recovery Ratings On Global Industrials Issuers' Speculative-Grade Debt, Aug. 10, 2009
Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.globalcreditportal.com and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44) 20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm (46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow 7 (495) 783-4009.
Primary Credit Analyst
ebastian Kauffmann, Frankfurt +49 (69) 33999-134;
[email protected]Secondary Contact:Natalia Goncharova, Moscow (7) 495-783-4016;
[email protected]Recovery Analystesiree I Menjivar, London (44) 20-7176-7822;
[email protected]Additional Contact:Industrial Ratings Europe;
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German Apparel Retailer Takko Fashion Rating Lowered To 'CCC+' On Weak Results, Tight Covenant Headroom; Outlook Stable
Publication date: 22-Dec-2014 13:39:41 EST
View Analyst Contact Information
German apparel retailer Takko Fashion S.a.r.l. posted weak second-quarter results, revealing a drop in like-for-like sales of 10.3% year-on-year.
Its financial covenant headroom is now below 10%.
As a result, we have lowered our long-term rating on Takko Fashion by one notch to 'CCC+' and our issue rating on Takko Fashion's senior secured notes to 'CCC' from 'CCC+'; the '5' recovery rating is unchanged.
The stable outlook reflects our expectations that Takko Fashion's like-for-like sales and profitability will not deteriorate further and that it will not breach its covenants over the next 12 months.
FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) Dec. 22, 2014--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on German apparel retailer Takko Fashion S.a.r.l. to 'CCC+' from 'B-'. The outlook is stable. As a consequence, we lowered our issue rating on Takko Luxembourg 2 S.C.A.'s €525 million senior secured notes to 'CCC' from 'CCC+'. The recovery rating of '5' is unchanged, indicating our expectation of modest (10%-30%) recovery in the event of a payment default. The downgrade reflects Takko Fashion's significantly weaker-than-expected like-for-like sales, which declined 10.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of the current fiscal year (ending April 30, 2015). The company's adjusted EBITDA dropped 36% year-on-year and was €89.5 million on a trailing-12-month basis through Oct. 31, 2014. According to our estimates, this will lead to covenant headroom of less than 10% by year end, and we expect headroom to tighten further over the coming years. Consequently, we lowered our assessment of Takko Fashion's liquidity to "less than adequate" from "adequate." We lowered the rating in light of our expectation of its covenant headroom tightening further (including the risk of a breach particularly if there is another unexpectedly weak quarter) and negative free operating cash flow. In our view, absent unexpected, favorable business developments, Takko Fashion's leverage metrics will likely worsen further, and its financial commitments appear to be unsustainable in the long term. Over the coming 12 months, however, in our base-case scenario, the company does not face a credit or payment crisis. Takko Fashion has revised its business strategy through measures such as renegotiating rental contracts, closing loss-making stores, launching more focused marketing campaigns, and rolling out best practices across all stores. In our view, these steps could boost EBITDA and cash flow growth. However, there's no guarantee that these efforts will be effective, and even if they are, it will likely take at least two years for them to fully translate into improved financials. We continue to assess Takko Fashion's business risk profile as "weak." Our assessment stems from our expectation of declines in like-for-like sales and profitability for the current fiscal year as a whole and only small improvements thereafter. In the absence of large working capital swings, this should translate into operating cash flow that is insufficient to cover planned capital expenditures. Our assessment also reflects the company's reliance on discretionary consumer spending from mid- to lower-income families and its positioning in the price-competitive value retail clothing market. The company competes against both high-street fashion retailers and hard discounters. In the past, weather conditions have had a strong effect on Takko Fashion's sales, which makes the group's profitability volatile. Due to its geographic concentration in Germany, other regions in which the company is active--such as Central and Eastern Europe--contribute little to reduce sales volatility. In addition, the company is exposed to changes in fashion trends, leading to a constant risk of inventory write-downs. On the positive side, fashion trends are slightly less important in the value segment than in higher-price segments of the apparel industry. Also, we regard competition from online retailing as less severe in the discount and value segment, as there is generally less room to optimize costs. Takko Fashion's business model is characterized by vertical integration, with in-house design and sourcing of products directly from manufacturers. Combined with the focus on locating stores outside high-rent city centers, the company is able to generate above-average EBITDA margins. However, its profit volatility is above average, mainly because sales are correlated with weather trends. This largely offsets Takko Fashion's high EBITDA margin compared with other apparel retailers. We assess Takko Fashion's financial risk as "highly leveraged" due to its private equity ownership and its weak credit metrics. Both of our core leverage ratios--debt to EBITDA and funds from operations (FFO) to debt--strongly indicate an assessment in this highest financial risk category, and we expect these ratios to worsen further. We estimate that Takko Fashion's adjusted FFO to debt will average 3%-5% and its adjusted debt to EBITDA should reach about 7.5x-8.5x. Reported EBITDA to cash interest coverage should be about 1.1x. On a fully Standard & Poor's-adjusted basis, EBITDA interest coverage is approximately 1.5x. We believe that the group's operating cash flow will be insufficient to cover its planned capital expenditures. Therefore, the company's existing cash sources and revolving credit facility (RCF) must be able to cover the costs of both ongoing operations and any potential disruptions that lead to a drop in EBITDA and operating cash flow. As of Oct. 31, 2014, including guarantees, Takko Fashion had used 20%-25% of its RCF. In any case, given the company's financial sponsorship, our assessment of Takko Fashion's financial risk profile is currently capped at "highly leveraged." Our base case assumes:An overall stable German economic environment, with real consumer spending rising by 0.8% and 0.6% year-on-year in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
A slight reduction in the number of stores and negative like-for-like sales growth in fiscal 2014/2015, followed by broadly flat like-for-like sales in fiscal 2015/2016.
Despite revenue support from stores opened during last fiscal year, this should translate into slight year-on-year revenue declines.
Adjusted for one-off expenses such as inventory revaluation losses, Takko's EBITDA margin should fall to 8%-9% from 9.5% in fiscal 2013/2014. This translates into a Standard & Poor's-adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%-20%.
Slight improvements in working capital.
Capital expenditure of about €30 million-€35 million per year.
Operating cash flow insufficient to fully cover capital expenditure.
Based on these assumptions, we arrive at the following Standard & Poor's-adjusted credit measures:FFO to debt of 3%-5%.
Debt to EBITDA of 7.5x-8.5x.
EBITDA interest coverage of 1.5x, with reported EBITDA cash interest coverage of about 1.1x.
The stable outlook reflects our view that Takko Fashion's like-for-like sales will decline in 2014/2015 and stay flat thereafter and that our Standard & Poor's-adjusted EBITDA margin stays in the region of 19%-20%. We forecast no breach of financial covenants over the coming 12 months. Downside scenarioWe could consider another downgrade if market circumstances or other factors lead to a further severe deterioration in revenues, EBITDA, and cash flows, which would likely lead to Takko breaching its financial covenants. Upside scenarioWe could consider an upgrade if the company improved its operating performance over several quarters, demonstrating that management's strategic initiatives can turn around performance. Recovery AnalysisKey analytical factorsThe issue and recovery ratings on the company's €525 million senior secured notes (comprised of €400 million 8.25% notes due 2020 and €125 million floating rate notes due 2020) are 'CCC' and '5', respectively. The recovery rating reflects the substantial amount of prior-ranking debt and the company's limited tangible asset base.
Our hypothetical default scenario assumes that a weak macroeconomic environment reduces discretionary spending, together with inflated sourcing costs that the group is unable to pass on to customers.
We value Takko Fashion as a going concern due to its strong position as a value fashion apparel retailer.
Due to the competitive nature of the retail industry, liquidation could also be a possible post-default outcome. This not our main assumption, but we believe that recovery prospects could be materially lower under a liquidation due to the group's limited amount of tangible assets.
Simulated default assumptionsYear of default: 2016
EBITDA at emergence: €78 million
Implied enterprise valuation (EV) multiple: 5x
Jurisdiction: Germany
Simplified waterfallGross enterprise value at default: €390 million
Administrative costs: €20 million
Net value available to creditors: €370 million
Priority debt claims: €39 million ^
Super senior secured debt claims: €222 million *
Senior secured debt claims: €546 million *
Recovery expectation: 10%-30% (lower half of range)
^ Priority claims include finance leases. * All debt amounts include six months' prepetition interest. RELATED CRITERIA AND RESEARCHThe Treatment Of Non-Common Equity Financing In Nonfinancial Corporate Entities, April 29, 2014
Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Jan. 2, 2014
Key Credit Factors For The Retail And Restaurants Industry, Nov. 19, 2013
Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013
Corporate Methodology: Ratios and Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013
Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012
Criteria For Assigning 'CCC+', 'CCC', 'CCC-', And 'CC' Ratings, Oct. 10, 2012
Criteria Guidelines For Recovery Ratings On Global Industrials Issuers' Speculative-Grade Debt, Aug. 10, 2009
Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.globalcreditportal.com and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44) 20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm (46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow 7 (495) 783-4009.
Primary Credit Analyst
ebastian Kauffmann, Frankfurt +49 (69) 33999-134;[email protected]Secondary Contact:Natalia Goncharova, Moscow (7) 495-783-4016;
[email protected]Recovery Analyst
esiree I Menjivar, London (44) 20-7176-7822;[email protected]Additional Contact:Industrial Ratings Europe;
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Any Passwords/user IDs issued by S&P to users are single user-dedicated and may ONLY be used by the individual to whom they have been assigned. No sharing of passwords/user IDs and no simultaneous access via the same password/user ID is permitted. To reprint, translate, or use the data or information other than as provided herein, contact Client Services, 55 Water Street, New York, NY 10041; (1) 212-438-7280 or by e-mail to: [email protected].
Ultima modifica:
fabriziof
Forumer storico
NoWay
It's time to play the game
l'avevi presa?
Stendiamo un velo pietoso...
(meno male che era proprio un cippino)
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Stendiamo un velo pietoso...
(meno male che era proprio un cippino)
Ma a ottobre hanno pagato?
NoWay
It's time to play the game
Ha pagato il 28/09... con accredito il 01/10...
Ultima modifica:
- Stato