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Uscito il rapporto World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) dell'USDA

WASDE-416 November 12, 2004



WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of
wheat are 568 million bushels, 1 million bushels
less than last month. Production is down 6
million bushels (mostly in Hard Red Spring wheat)
but that is nearly offset by a 5-million-bushel
increase in Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat imports.
Seed use rises 1 million bushels. Food use, feed
and residual, and exports of wheat are unchanged,
but changes are made in the by-class allocation of
domestic use and exports. The projected price
range is raised 10 cents on the lower end of the
range to $3.20 to $3.50 per bushel because of
stronger-than-expected prices during the past
month.

Projected 2004/05 global wheat production, use,
and stocks are up slightly from last month.
Global wheat production is raised 1.1 million tons
to a record 617 million tons because of larger
foreign production. Larger crops are projected
for the EU-25 (up 1.2 million tons) and Russia (up
1 million tons), with smaller increases for
Argentina and Brazil. Australia's crop is down 1
million tons; Canada's is down 0.5 million tons;
and smaller reductions are projected for Algeria
and South Africa. Global consumption is raised
fractionally from last month. Global imports and
exports are up slightly from last month due to
changes in a number of countries. The largest
change in imports is a 0.3-million-ton increase
for Algeria. Relative to last month's
projections, Russia's exports are up 1 million
tons, Argentina's are up 0.5 million tons, while
the exports of Kazakhstan are down 0.5 million
tons. Small changes in exports and imports are
projected for several other countries. Global
ending stocks are 0.7 million tons larger than
last month's projection with the largest changes
occurring in the EU-25 (up 1.2 million tons),
Argentina (down 0.7 million tons), Canada (down
0.5 million tons), and Kazakhstan (up 0.5 million
tons).

COARSE GRAINS: Further increases are projected
this month for 2004/05 U.S. feed grain production
and ending stocks. Forecast corn production, a
record 11.741 billion bushels, is up 128 million
bushels from last month. Also, grain sorghum
production is up 10 million bushels. Due to
revisions in harvested area, barley and oat
production are both down 1 million bushels.
Projected feed and residual use of corn, sorghum,
and barley are up from last month. Corn and grain
sorghum exports are each reduced 25 million
bushels due to the slow pace of export sales to
date and lower projected imports by Mexico, South
Korea, and several other major markets. No change
is made to industrial use of corn. Relative to
last month, projected ending stocks of corn are up
128 million bushels and sorghum stocks are up 20
million bushels. The projected price range is
down 5 cents on each end from last month for corn
to $1.70 to $2.10 per bushel. The price range of
sorghum is down 15 cents on each end to $1.55 to
$1.95 per bushel.

Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply, use, and
stocks projections are up from last month. Global
production is raised to a record 985 million tons,
up 8 million tons from last month and 9 percent
larger than 2003/04. Relative to last month,
larger crops are projected for China (up 4 million
tons), the United States (up 3.5 million tons),
and the EU-25 (up nearly 1 million tons). Crop
reductions are noted for Brazil (down 0.5 million
tons), Australia (down 0.4 million tons), and
Bolivia (down 0.3 million tons). Production
changes are projected for a number of other
countries. Global consumption is raised slightly
but global trade is down slightly from last month.
Reduced imports are projected for Mexico, South
Korea, Egypt, Turkey, the Philippines, Japan, and
Brazil. Larger imports by Peru, Iran, Indonesia,
and other countries are partially offsetting.
Smaller exports are projected for the United
States, Australia, and Indonesia but larger
exports are projected for the EU-25. Global
coarse grain stocks rise 8 million tons from last
month and are up 21 million tons from last year.
China's stocks increase 4.1 million tons due
primarily to the larger corn crop. Ending stocks
also rise for the United States, with smaller
increases projected for South Africa, South Korea,
Russia, Ukraine, and other countries. Notable
declines in stocks are projected for Mexico,
Brazil, and Australia, with smaller reductions
forecast for other countries.

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OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2004/05
are projected at 13.8 million tons, up 1.6 million
tons from last month due to increased soybean and
cottonseed production. U.S. total oilseed
production is projected at 96.8 million tons, up
1.6 million tons from last month. Soybean
production is forecast at a record 3,150 million
bushels, up 43 million bushels from last month
based on a record soybean yield of 42.6 bushels
per acre. Cottonseed production is forecast up
366,000 short tons from last month.

Projected soybean exports are reduced 15 million
bushels, mainly reflecting lower import demand in
China. Higher freight rates are expected to
moderate stock accumulation by crushers in China.
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 460 million
bushels, which would be the highest level since
1985/86. Soybean oil use is increased this month
reflecting the impact of new tax incentives for
biodiesel production.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2004/05
is projected at $4.55 to $5.35 per bushel, down 15
cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal
price is projected at $145 to $175 per short ton,
down 5 dollars on both ends of the range. The
soybean oil price is projected at 21.5 to 24.5
cents per pound, unchanged from last month.

Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected
at a record 388.5 million tons, up 2.7 million
tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production
is increased 1.1 million tons, primarily due to
higher rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed
production. EU-25 rapeseed production is raised
0.2 million tons to 14.5 million tons, 3.5 million
tons higher than last year's drought-reduced crop.
Other changes include increased rapeseed
production for India and increased sunflowerseed
production for Russia. Foreign vegetable oil
production is raised 1 million tons to 96.6
million tons, primarily due to higher palm oil
production in Malaysia and Indonesia.

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COTTON: A sharply higher production estimate is
raising 2004/05 U.S. ending stocks this month.
Production is raised 1.0 million bales, due to
higher forecast yields in most States, with Texas
accounting for 400,000 bales of the increase.
Exports are raised 200,000 bales this month, while
domestic mill use is unchanged. Ending stocks are
now forecast at 7.5 million bales, marginally
above the 2001/02 level.

This month's world estimates for 2004/05 include
significant revisions in both supply and demand.
World beginning stocks are raised 2.0 million
bales, including a 1.6-million-bale increase in
China's stocks. China's ending stocks are revised
beginning in 1991/92, due to recent evidence which
suggests that historical stocks were larger than
previously estimated (see FAS early release data
after 9 a.m. at
http://www.fas.usda.gov/cotton/circu...rly/table1.pdf
for details). Beginning stocks also are raised
for Australia, due to revisions in production
estimates beginning in 2001/02. World 2004/05
production is raised in sixteen countries, most
notably the United States, Pakistan, Argentina,
Uzbekistan, and the African Franc Zone region;
production is reduced only in Brazil, Turkey, and
Paraguay. World consumption is raised about 1.5
million bales, due mainly to increases for China,
India, and Turkey. World trade is slightly
higher, as increased imports by China and Turkey
are partially offset by reductions for other
countries. World ending stocks are raised 2.6
million bales from last month, including 1.3
million bales in China.

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per le statistiche nude e crude : http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications...asp?f=wasde-bb

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Alla luce del WASDE le previsioni sull'apertura del comparto grains al CBOt son negative : per il soybeans atteso un gap down iniziale di 5-10 cents. corn 2-4 cents down, wheat 2-4 down


CBOT soy, corn, wheat called to open down on USDA data

CHICAGO, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade soybeans were expected to open Friday down 5 to 10 cents per bushel with corn 2 to 4 cents lower on USDA's big U.S. crop estimates, traders said.

CBOT wheat futures were called to open 2 to 4 cents lower on the government's bigger-than-expected U.S. 2004/05 wheat end stocks forecast.

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Ho estrapolato le nuove bande di oscillazione previste per il mese corrente

wheat 320-350 c
corn 170-210 c
oats 130-150 c
soybeans 455-535c
soybean meal 145-175 c

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il solito comportamento a mercato aperto: le vendite iniziali portano rapidamente ai minimi quindi reverse sino alla luce verde a metà seduta

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tutto il comparto sale oggi trascinato dal rust concern sulla soia, ritorna il tema del pericolo ruggine che ha tenuto banco la settimana scorsa.

Focus sul soybean meal:

U.S. cash soymeal - Offers steady-off, good demand

CHICAGO, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Basis offers for soymeal were
steady to weak in the U.S. Midwest on Monday as farmer soybean
sales replenished crushers in a few areas, dealers said.
Rail basis offers were unchanged while truck offers fell $1
at Kansas City. Merchandisers reported scattered country sales
of soybeans after a dry weekend that helped many producers wrap
up the harvest.
However, steady demand from feed mixers and other buyers
underpinned the cash meal market, despite a jump in soymeal
futures.
"They sense we potentially could have a bottoming here, and
they're locking it in," a Minnesota cash meal dealer said.
At the Chicago Board of Trade at 10:55 a.m. CST (1655 GMT),
December soymeal futures <SMZ4> were up $3.00 per ton at
$152.70. CBOT January soybeans <SF5> were up 13 cents at $5.38
per bushel on concerns that soybean rust disease may have
spread to more fields in the U.S. Delta region.
Soy industry officials said test results on three fields in
Louisiana and one in Mississippi were expected back on Monday
from a U.S. Department of Agriculture laboratory.
The CBOT January board crush was at 37.30 cents per bushel,
down 0.90 cent from Friday's close.
The National Oilseed Processors Association said its
members crushed 148.1 million bushels in October, above trade
estimates for 140 million to 146 million.
Overnight soymeal exports were quiet. Spot CIF and FOB
offers remained unquoted due to a lack of product available for
spot shipment.
Forward CIF offers for December were quoted steady at $9
over CBOT December soymeal, while forward FOB offers for
first-half December were steady at $15 over.

Spot rail soymeal (dlrs/ton basis CBOT, 47.5 pct protein):
Chicago - 6.00 + Z UNC
Decatur, Ill. - 6.00 + Z UNC
Danville, Ill. - 6.00 + Z UNC
Decatur, Ala. UNQ UNC
Lancaster, Pa. delvrd +17.00 + Z UNC
Kansas City, Mo. - 5.00 + Z UNC
Fostoria, Ohio - 4.00 + Z UNC
CIF U.S. Gulf UNQ + Z UNC
FOB U.S. Gulf UNQ + Z UNC
Spot truck soymeal basis (dlrs per ton):
44 pct 47.5 pct change
Danville, Ill. UNQ + 2.00 + Z UNC
Frankfort, Ind -3.00 + Z + 4.00 + Z UNC
Lafayette, Ind. UNQ OPT + Z UNC
Decatur, Ind. UNQ + 4.00 + Z UNC
Mankato, Minn. -12.00 + Z - 5.00 + Z UNC
Kansas City UNQ - 6.00 + Z DN 1.00
Spot crude soyoil (cents/lb basis CBOT):
Central Illinois rail - + 2.00 + Z UNC
Note: Z = CBOT December.

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Gli effetti del secondo caso di mucca pazza rilevato negli US dall'USDA si ripercuotono sul settore dei grains, in verde il soybean meal , in rosso il corn perchè si pensa che alla possibile riduzione di domanda di carne corrisponderà un equivalente diminuzione di foraggio per gli allevamenti

CBOT corn falls early, soymeal climbs on mad cow

CHICAGO, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade corn futures fell while soymeal climbed early Thursday after the USDA reported preliminary tests showed an animal tested positive for mad cow disease, traders said.

Soymeal prices were supported on renewed prospects that meat and bone meal could be further restricted in feed rations, while corn was pressured on ideas of reduced beef demand.

December corn futures were down 1-3/4 cents at $2.04 and December soymeal was up $1.90 at $159.70 per ton by 9:40 a.m.

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un link per seguire nella notturna americana le quotazioni di corn, soybeans e soymeal sul mercato cinese di Dalian

http://218.25.154.93/english/quote/quote-english.asp