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Originalmente inviato da rebecca
ISIN - BB - scadenza 2014, cedola 5,125, taglio minimo 50.000 : sotto la pari quotato mi sembra intorno a 97-98. Perchè questa valutazione di mercato? Mi aiutate a capire? quanto è realmente rischioso?
Grazie e buona giornata a tutti
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E' piuttosto rischioso per la debolezza compartimentale del suo segmento media e l'alto leverage dell'emittente... l'analisi è del luglio scorso, andrebbe verificato se c'è stato qualche miglioramento recente, ma cmq lo scenario di fondo resta di grande fragilità...
Ratings On Italy-Based Gruppo Espresso Cut To 'BB' On Higher Leverage, Weaker Margins; Outlook Negative
·Advertising revenues continue to decline at Italy-based newspaper and magazine publisher Gruppo Espresso, falling 21% year on year in the second quarter of 2009.
·We expect the deterioration in revenues to result in a further decline in EBITDA and higher leverage by year-end 2009.
·We are lowering our long-term corporate credit rating on Gruppo Espresso to 'BB' from 'BB+'.
·The negative outlook reflects our view that potentially rapidly rising leverage could trigger a further downgrade in the coming months.
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) July 28, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Italy-based newspaper and magazine publisher Gruppo Editoriale L'Espresso SpA (Gruppo Espresso) to 'BB' from 'BB+'. The outlook is negative.
The recovery rating on Gruppo Espresso's senior unsecured debt is unchanged at '4', indicating our expectation of average (30%-50%) recovery in the event of a payment default.
"The downgrade reflects our view that the pace of decline in advertising revenues experienced by Gruppo Espresso since the beginning of 2009 will likely result in lease- and pension-adjusted net leverage increasing to the mid-5x level by year-end 2009, or about mid-6x on a gross basis," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Manuela Gabatta.
"This is greater than both the 4.5x we previously envisaged and the level of 3.2x reported on Dec. 31, 2008.
On that date, Gruppo Espresso reported gross consolidated debt of €400 million."
In our view, Gruppo Espresso's EBITDA could decline further in 2009, and adversely affect leverage and cash flow generation. We note the group's good cash conversion, modest capital requirements, and the announced dividend cut.
However, we think that prospects for positive free operating cash flow generation in 2009 will depend on the group's ability to mitigate the envisaged additional top-line pressure with the announced costs-saving initiatives as well as avoid any working capital absorption. The ratings could come under pressure if the group's liquidity were to materially deviate from our current expectations, as a result of higher-than-anticipated cash burn.
In addition, the ratings could come under pressure if Gruppo Espresso's operating performance and credit measures were to weaken significantly more than we anticipate, in particular if the group's reported EBITDA were to fall to less than €80 million in 2009, or if our current prospects for economic moderation in 2010 were to fade.
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