* CSM cuts 2009 US auto sales forecast to 9.7 million
* Cites higher unemployment for lower forecast
* GM, Chrysler turnaround plans assume stronger market
By Kevin Krolicki
DETROIT, March 10 (Reuters) - CSM Worldwide, which forecasts global auto production and demand, on Tuesday slashed its outlook for U.S. vehicle sales in 2009 citing the drag from higher unemployment and continued uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. automakers.
CSM said it expected light vehicle sales would drop to 9.7 million units in 2009, down from sales of 13.2 million units in 2008 and down from its own initial 2009 forecast in January of sales of 10.7 million vehicles.
North American auto production is on track to drop by an even steeper margin, hitting 8.1 million vehicles in 2009, CSM said. That would be just over half of the industry's recent peak production near 15.1 million units in 2007.
Sales at the lowered forecast levels would be weaker than the base assumptions built into the restructuring plans submitted by General Motors Corp (
GM.N) and Chrysler LLC to U.S. officials in support of a further round of public funding.
"The situation is more severe and will dramatically intensify pressure on Chrysler and GM as they work to execute restructuring plans," CSM said in a note for its clients.
"Disproportionately sharp sales declines are expected to persist at Chrysler and GM as consumers are faced with ongoing concerns surrounding the viability of the struggling companies and their respective brands," it said.
Both GM and Chrysler have been kept operating since the start of the year under a U.S. government bailout that now totals $17.4 billion.
GM, which has asked for up to $30 billion in federal aid, forecast sales of 10.5 million vehicles in 2009.
CSM said it expected that President
Barack Obama's autos task force would push GM toward a restructuring, but warned that a bankruptcy filing by the automaker could risk deepening the sector's problems.
"Further headwinds remain if the government forces GM into a prepackaged bankruptcy filing, as consumer confidence and already record-high unemployment would deteriorate further, cascading through the industry," CSM said.
U.S. auto sales for the first two months of the year averaged 9.3 million units on an annualized basis, the lowest level since 1982.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...0090310?rpc=44
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