pimco pallino deve essere short sino al midollo per uscirsene ancora una volta contro i gilt , se continua così gli faranno uno squeeze da cinetica
se vincono i conservatori come previsto e partono tosti a tagliare come promesso lo vedremo a piangere su blumberg o cntsfkdfkdv
long gilt short bund
Pimco’s Gross Recommends ‘Less Levered’ Countries (Update1)
Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) --
Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at
Pacific Investment Management Co., said investors should seek “less levered” countries like China, India and Brazil that are “less easily prone to bubbling.”
“Go where the growth is, where the consumer sector is still in its infancy, where national debt levels are low, where reserves are high, and where trade surpluses promise to generate additional reserves for years to come,” Gross wrote in a monthly investment outlook published on Newport Beach, California-based Pimco’s Web site. “The old established G-7 and their look-alikes as they de-lever have lost their position as drivers of the global economy.”
Gross recommended that investors should look for “a savings-oriented economy, which would gradually evolve into a consumer-focused economy,” adding that miniature examples of China, India and Brazil would be excellent examples.
China’s growth is forecast to accelerate to 10 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said in a forecast released today, up from the 9 percent projected in October, after 8.7 percent last year. India’s economy will expand by 7.7 percent in 2010, the report said, compared with the October forecast of 6.4 percent.
Emerging and developing economies will increase 6 percent this year, a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous forecasts, according to the report. Next year they will expand 6.3 percent.
‘Must to Avoid’
Gross increased the $201.7 billion
Total Return Fund’s investment in developed markets outside the U.S. to 16 percent from 5 percent in December, bringing it to the most since October 2004, according to Pimco’s
Web site.
Gross cut holdings of government-related bonds to 32 percent of assets in December, the least since July, from 51 percent in November.
The U.K. is “a must to avoid,” Gross wrote in the commentary published today. “Its gilts are resting on a bed of nitroglycerine. High debt with the potential to devalue its currency present high risks for bond investors.”
‘GMAC Predicament’
The U.K. economy expanded 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, pulling Britain out of its longest recession on record, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Growth was less than economists forecast.
U.K. gilts fell 1.3 percent last year, Bank of America Corp. Merrill Lynch indexes show. Yields, which move opposite to prices, will rise in the U.K. this year, according to Bloomberg surveys of economists.
Among developed countries, Gross recommended Canada and Germany. “Given enough liquidity and current yields, I would prefer to invest money in Canada,” Gross wrote. “Its conservative banks never did participate in the housing crisis and it moved toward and stayed closer to fiscal balance than any other country.”
“Germany is the safest, most liquid sovereign alternative,” Gross wrote. However, “its leadership and the EU’s potential stance toward the bailouts of Greece and Ireland must be watched. Think AIG and GMAC and you have a similar comparative predicament.”
In the firm’s investment outlook for 2010 released on Jan. 4, Pimco said it was cutting holdings of U.S. and U.K. debt as the two nations increase borrowing to record levels.
‘New Normal’
Outstanding U.S. public
debt has climbed to $7.27 trillion as of December from $4.537 trillion in December 2007 as the government has borrowed to fund two stimulus programs and fund record budget deficits. The U.S. budget deficit reached $1.4 trillion for fiscal 2009.
The Treasury is likely to issue $2.5 trillion of notes and bonds in 2010, according to a forecast by primary dealer Barclays Plc, following $2.11 trillion of sales last year.
U.S. gross domestic product will expand 2.7 percent this year before slowing to 2.4 percent in 2011, the IMF said. In October the fund expected growth of 1.5 percent for 2010 in the world’s largest economy.
The U.S. may need to increase borrowing in 2010 to fund another measure to bolster the economy as the $787 billion package passed in 2009 is exhausted, Gross said previously.
Under what Pimco has termed the “new normal,” investors will face lower-than-average returns with heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy.
