Una Buona notte a tutti.
October 05
monday update
SHORT TERM: market rallies from oversold levels, DOW +112
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower. Europe opened higher and closed +0.75%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened slightly higher, trading around SPX 1026 in the first few minutes. By 10:00 the SPX had rallied to 1035 when ISM services was released at 50.9% v 48.6%, a positive report. The market backed off to SPX 1029 by 10:30 and then started moving higher. As the USD continued to weakend on the day the market continued to move higher. By 1:00 the SPX hit 1038, and backed off only three points to 1035 over the next hour or so. At 2:15 the FED announced the following changes to the TALF program:
FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve announces changes to procedures for evaluating asset-backed securities pledged to the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)--October 5, 2009. The market again moved higher. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1043, its high for the day, and then eased some into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds were up 1 tick, Crude added 15 cents, Gold rallied $14.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum was extremely oversold at friday's lows and was overbought at the close. Tomorrow, nothing scheduled.
Today the market opened slightly higher, received some good news with ISM services, and with the help of the FED TALF announcement moved right back to the break down point at the OEW 1041 pivot. The choice of the expanding diagonal triangle or failed fifth wave scenarios is already at hand. While the SPX can still move a bit higher and still be in the failed fifth wave scenario. Rallies back to breakdown points are often met with strong resistance, and downturns often follow when the market is at the beginning of a downtrend. The decline from SPX 1070 made a noticeable low at 1046, rallied to 1063, and then declined to 1020. Today's high was SPX 1043, and the market was overbought short term. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
LONG TERM: bear market
CHARTS:
Public Chart Lists - StockCharts.com
grazie
