01-09-2009, 20:08
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#1376 (permalink)
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collegio dei patafisici
Data registrazione: Nov 2002
Localitā: liguria
Messaggi: 14,853
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Citazione:
Originalmente inviato da Fernando'S
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alleluja alleluja......  ų
SELL ON NEWS
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/1/2009 1:49:07 PM Eastern Time
NEW YORK, NY Buy on the hype and sell on the news. It's never been more prevalent than in today's session. For a long stretch, it felt like the world was turned upside down. The market would go up on suspect news and data. Corporate earnings achieved solely through massive job cuts and costs cuts still managed to propel equities higher. Today, data out on manufacturing and housing temporarily turned equities higher and then... the bottom fell out. There is no official word on why this is happening although there is some chatter about the Fed stepping in to buy treasuries but I think it's one of those things that the market didn't really like. That should have sent a sell signal which in turn has triggered a series if selling by folks that had long been spying the exits.
Manufacturing was fantastic and for the first time since June 2008 the index alluded to expansion (greater than 50.0) coming in with a reading of 52.9 versus the consensus of 50.5. Changes in component readings are encouraging but the increase in employment was on the punk side and could be making people a little uneasy. The spike in prices paid belies worries about deflation but inventory and employment are problematic.
Pending Home Sales
Pending home sales came in better than expected as the south and west offset persistent weakness in the Northeast and Midwest. Some natural enthusiasm from such a report might be snuffed out by comments from Bill Gross who says housing will not lead the country out of this recession.
Its official, the bias has shifted decidedly to the downside and with vigor. Today's session brings new meaning to the term sell on the news.
I was hoping for a pullback but in the midst of it I must admit it doesn't feel great. If I was in a dark room trading only for myself I would make a peanut butter and jelly sandwich and chill but so many people are beginning to panic, its ruffling my feathers a bit, too. I'm not ready to panic even with the voices of fear. A lot of good news was built into the market but that doesn't mean actual good news should drive this market all the way back down. Have cash prepared and at some point we'll stare fear in the eyes and pull the trigger. Hang in there It could actually be worse...the market could be down on bad news!
Auto Sales
Auto sales numbers are rolling in and (drum roll please) they are below expectations. Looking how this month's results are comparing to some of the Street's estimates, it becomes apparent that these analysts must have been drinking their own kool-aid. For instance, let's take a look at Ford's (F) results for the most recent month. The Company reported that sales increased 17% compared to August of last year, but the Street was expecting a whopping 33% increase. Our forecast still came in above the actual result (we had forecasted an increased of approximately 20%), but a 33% increase? Ford started the program off red hot, but seemed to have fizzled out by the end. The Ford Escape was the fifth most popular car purchased, but August of 2008 was a dismal month (sales declined 3.5% from July of 2008).
There were only approximately 700,000 vehicles sold industry-wide through the program which equates to an 8.4 million unit industry seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales (SAAR). Of the companies to report August auto sales as of right now, Chrysler was the biggest loser, with sales falling 15.4% compared to last year. Daimler reported sales that were 9.5% higher year over year despite getting a very small share of the cash for clunkers business. The following chart outlines the percent of the cash for clunkers that the major automakers took. A more in depth analysis will be available on our website later today (www.wstreet.com), as well as a portion being in tomorrow's morning report.
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