[Imark]

Ed intanto il salvataggio del sistema bancario sembrerebbe essere costato al Belgio circa 15 punti percentuali di debito\PIL... erano scesi fino al 75%, si ritrovano attorno al 90%

Moody's changes outlook on Belgium to stable from positive


Frankfurt, January 13, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service today changed the outlook for the Belgian government's Aa1 foreign- and domestic-currency government ratings to stable from positive.

"The change in outlook reflects Moody's view that an upgrade to Aaa is now unlikely to take place in the next 12 to 18 months," said Alexander Kockerbeck, a Moody's Vice-President/Senior Credit Officer. "In recent years, Belgian fiscal policy had driven a substantial reduction of general government debt ratios in relation to nominal GDP and to general government revenue, moving closer to its Aaa peers in the Eurozone. However, the global financial crisis and a possibly lengthy macroeconomic downturn are likely to weigh on public finances, preventing further improvement of the government's debt affordability metrics and a reduction of its susceptibility to event risk -- the two major rating constraints," he said.

Mr. Kockerbeck pointed out that after the expected increase in debt associated with bank rescue operations announced in 2008, and barring additional injections that could be required in 2009, the gross debt-to-GDP ratio seems likely to stabilise just below 90%. Further substantial government debt adjustment down closer to Aaa levels are deeply uncertain -- even though debt metrics are expected to deteriorate for those countries as well. Interest costs are set to rise also because of higher government debt levels and the likelihood that interest spreads will widen.

The rating agency further noted that recent political uncertainty should not pose an imminent threat to policy stability, in particular regarding fiscal policy. The absence of strong national cohesion, however, can at times hamper the ability of the government to react decisively and quickly to repair its balance sheet and protect the economy. This may be especially true in a context of global financial and economic crisis.

"More generally, the somewhat fractious nature of Belgian federalism is constraining the policy response should further economic and financial costs materialise," said Mr. Kockerbeck.

Mr. Kockerbeck also emphasised that Moody's assesses the economy's strength as very high, supported by the country's advanced and diversified economy and its deep integration into the global trade and capital markets. However, Moody's expects that the global financial crisis and the slump in the housing sector in many countries will weigh heavily on global and regional growth prospects, which will have deleterious consequences for Belgium as a small, very open economy.

The last rating action with respect to the Government of Belgium was on March 28, 2006 when the outlooks on the government's Aa1 ratings were raised to positive from stable.

The principal methodology used in rating the Government of Belgium was Moody's Sovereign Bond Methodology, which can be found at www.moodys.com in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory, in the Ratings Methodologies subdirectory. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found in the Credit Policy & Methodologies directory on Moody's website.

Press releases concerning other issuers affected by this action will follow separately.